行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停，巴斯 夫再度调高 MDI 报价 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.98%，创业板指数上涨 1.05%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，中信基础化工指数上涨 6.21%，申万化工指数上涨 7.15%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为磷 肥及磷化工(18.51%)、纯碱(14.02%)、复合肥(13.17%)、钛白粉(10.63%)、有机 硅(9.76%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为印染化学品(1.39%)、涂料油 墨颜料(1.81%)、改性塑料(2.13%)、轮胎(2.63%)、涤纶(2.75%)。 本周行业主要动态： 乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停。韩国政府 2 月 25 日宣布提供 2.1 万亿韩 元(约合人民币 100 亿元)的财政和税收支持，用于乐天化学公司和 HD 现代 化学公司在大山工业园区的重组项目。这是韩国石化行业大规模自救计划 中首个获批的重组项目。根据重组计划，乐天化学将把位于韩国忠清南道 的大仙 ...

石油石化 2026 年 3 月 1 日 石油石化周报 霍尔木兹海峡停航，短期油价存在急剧上行的可能 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 26-01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：霍尔木兹海峡停航，短期油价存在急剧上行的可能。据 ifind 数据，2026 年 2 月 20 日-2026 年 2 月 27 日，WTI 原油期货收 盘价上涨 1.31%，布伦特油期货收盘价上涨 1.17%。中东地缘局势恶 化，短期油价存在大幅走高的可能：2 月 26 日，美 ...

2月27日，三美股份大宗交易成交459.5万股，成交额3.1亿元，占当日总成交额的42.27%，成交价67.36 元，较市场收盘价73.17元折价7.94%。 | 2026-02-27 | 三美股份 | 603379 | 67.36 | 875.68 | 13 | | 1 | KA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-02-27 | 三美股份 | 603379 | 67.36 | 808.32 | 12 | 机构专用 | | 문 | | 2026-02-27 | 三美股份 | 603379 | 67.36 | 673.6 | 10 | 高美美 | | 图 | | 2026-02-27 | 三美股份 | 603379 | 67.36 | 673.6 | 10 | | | 질 | | 2026-02-27 | 三美股份 | 603379 | 67.36 | 673.6 | 10 | | | 星 | | 2026-02-27 | 三美股份 | 603379 | 67.36 | 653.39 | 9.7 | 机构专用 | | ...

截至13:25，石化ETF（159731）涨0.66%，持仓股盐湖股份、蓝晓科技、三美股份等涨幅居前。从资金 净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计11.53亿元。石化ETF最新份额达 17.41亿份，最新规模18.54亿元。 据市场预测，2026年国内聚乙烯新增产能预计达615万~729万吨，产能增速为15%~18.5%。投产节奏呈 现"前低后高"特征，上半年新增产能有限，下半年市场供应逐步增加。业内人士分析，我国聚乙烯产业 正从规模扩张竞争向价值提升竞争稳步迈进，结构性调整已成为行业发展主旋律。 国海证券认为，中国化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提 升，有望实现从吞金兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望 兼具高弹性和高股息的优势。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%。随着供给侧坚持去产能和"反内 卷"，同时坚持扩大内需，化工行业周期将加速反转。 （文章来源 ...

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Sanmei Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the third-generation refrigerant market, with expected price increases driven by growing downstream demand [1] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the upstream and downstream sectors of the fluorine industry chain [1] - The company is deeply engaged in the fluorochemical sector and is expected to benefit from the upward trend in refrigerant prices, leading to sustained performance growth [1] Group 2 - The report provides a target price of 79.10 yuan for the company, initiating coverage with a "buy" rating based on comprehensive PE and PB valuations [1]

Macro Research - In 2026, approximately 77 trillion yuan of residents' fixed deposits will mature, with about 25 trillion yuan facing repricing due to high-interest deposits [1] - The maturity pressure for 2026 is expected to be less severe compared to 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3% [2][3] Strategy Research - Kevin Warsh's potential leadership at the Federal Reserve may lead to a "moderate rate cut + limited balance sheet reduction" policy, which could increase asset volatility and reshape asset pricing paradigms [1][5] Basic Chemical Research - Sanmei Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the third-generation refrigerants market, with prices expected to continue rising due to increasing downstream demand [1][8] - The company has a significant share of the HFCs production quota in China, with HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-32, and HFC-143a accounting for 23.97%, 18.43%, 11.81%, and 15.48% of the national production quota, respectively [9][27] - The average market price of R32 has surged from 13,472 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2023 to 63,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2026, a staggering increase of 368% [11][28] - The company is actively enhancing its integrated layout across the fluorine industry chain, with several projects in various stages of development [12][28]

商品资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？20260223 摘要 地缘政治扰动和中国企业出海投资意愿减弱导致全球有色矿产资源供给 刚性，叠加降息周期和全球经济复苏，共同推动有色金属价格上涨。全 球性品种因受益于全球供需关系改善，更具投资价值，尤其是在制造业 和工业企稳复苏的背景下。 电力板块因中国电价竞争力强、全产业链成本较低、电力公司成本控制 和盈利能力优异而值得重点推荐。电解铝行业虽依赖进口矿石，但国内 产能限制约束了供应，出口铝材占比高，通过锁定冶炼环节利润，实现 了上下游双重获利。 化工行业预计 2025 年下半年触底反弹，供需变化将带来价格弹性。中 国化工行业已取得较强低价权，未来将向高端化升级。制冷剂行业受环 保政策配额制影响，企业集中度提高，产品提价增加盈利，预计三美股 份业绩将显著增长。 铬盐市场因生产过程受限，下游应用于民用、军用航空等战略领域，需 求有望增长。硫磺市场因油气回收减少导致供应受限，而电池级硫酸镍 生产增加需求，价格持续上涨，且趋势具有长期性。 Q&A 资源品市场在 2025 年的行情表现如何？有哪些特征和变化？ 2025 年资源品市场表现强劲，尤其是有色金属板块，包括金、银、铜、 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...