Core Viewpoint - The metal market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with macroeconomic factors being the key drivers of metal price trends, including monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions [1][12]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases. As of the end of January, China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking 15 consecutive months of reserve expansion [2][13]. - Specific price movements include SHFE gold rising by 3.29% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, COMEX gold increasing by 4.24% to 5,296.40 USD per ounce, and London gold rising by 3.27% to 5,278.26 USD per ounce. Silver prices also saw significant increases, with SHFE silver up 16.34% to 23,019 CNY per kilogram [2][13]. - Recommended stocks in the precious metals sector include Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [3][14]. Base Metals - The copper sector is characterized by a strong supply-demand dynamic, with prices supported by strategic stockpiling and rigid supply. Recent data shows SHFE copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton, while LME copper rose by 2.93% to 13,343.5 USD per ton [4][15]. - In contrast, the aluminum sector faces a "macro positive, inventory pressure" scenario, with SHFE aluminum prices rising by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton, but facing seasonal supply pressures and increasing inventories [5][16]. - Recommended stocks for copper include Jincheng Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum, while for aluminum, recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][5][15][16]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is experiencing strong demand and declining inventories, with lithium carbonate continuing to deplete. Recommended stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7][19]. - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supplies, with companies extending their operations into downstream electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt [7][19]. Rare Earth and Strategic Metals - The rare earth sector has seen price increases post-holiday, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide rising significantly. The report highlights the investment value of rare earths as strategic resources [8][20]. - The tungsten sector is benefiting from supply constraints and strategic pricing models, with recommended stocks including Xiamen Tungsten [8][20]. - The uranium sector has seen long-term price increases due to supply rigidity and nuclear power development, with recommended stocks including China Uranium [9][21].

证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 02 日 上期有色金属指数解析：期货指数 与股票指数有何差异？ 相关研究 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 股 票 基 金 - ⚫ 有色金属景气回升，政策驱动行业稳增长。2025/8/28，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有 色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，系列举措将有效改善行业供需结构、 提升产业韧性，为有色金属行业景气度回升注入强劲动力。 ⚫ 工业有色金属的供需维持紧平衡，价格易涨难跌。结合库存数据与行业周期来看，当前 LME 铜、铝、锡的全球库存整体仍处于低位，机器人、新能源汽车以及新能源装机等新 兴产业的快速发展，正在同步推升铜、铝等工业有色金属的需求；而供给端方面，近几年 全球铜矿开采量增速出现放缓，全球铝的产能也已经达到高位，新增产能受限，因此，未 来铜、铝等工业有色 ...

有色矿业ETF招商（159690）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属矿业主题指数收益率，管理人为招商基金管 理有限公司，基金经理为王宁远，成立（2023-06-21）以来回报为149.70%，近一个月回报为0.93%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月2日，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）开盘涨2.04%，报2.548元。有色矿业ETF招商（159690）重仓股 方面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，中矿资源跌 0.02%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 避险与通胀，金属迎全面重估 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S08805 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月2日，材料ETF（159944）开盘涨1.43%，报1.846元。材料ETF（159944）重仓股方面，紫金矿业开 盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，万华化学涨0.11%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，盐湖股份涨1.05%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%。 材料ETF（159944）业绩比较基准为中证全指原材料指数，管理人为广发基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为姚曦，成立（2015-06-25）以来回报为82.05%，近一个月回报为3.93%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 3月2日，有色ETF汇添富（159652）开盘涨2.64%，报2.136元。有色ETF汇添富（159652）重仓股方 面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，天齐锂业跌 1.08%。 有色ETF汇添富（159652）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为汇添富基 金管理股份有限公司，基金经理为董瑾、孙浩，成立（2023-01-16）以来回报为107.95%，近一个月回 报为0.63%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].