开栏的话 马年春节一过，辽宁在首个工作日召开了"新春第一会"。这场会既是"十五五"开局之年的部署，更是谋振兴、抓落实的宣言。"发令枪"已打 响，会议提出的要求正转化为各地开局起步的行动。 重大项目是"十五五"实现良好开局的重要支撑。重大项目如何推进？"十五五"如何开局？今起，《辽宁日报》推出"开工看开局"专栏，记者奔赴全省各 地，深入项目工地，采访一线建设者，报道来自项目建设现场的零距离见闻。我们要呈现的，不仅仅是机器的轰鸣、火热的现场，还有那股不服输敢争先的 锐气、那份直面问题破题解局的勇气。请跟随记者的脚步，透过鲜活的文字与生动的画面，在一个个项目现场感受辽宁拔节向上的振兴脉动。 "不打扰，不打扰，走吧，跟我看看我们的智能工厂！"2月25日下午，在位于沈阳经济技术开发区沈西六东路53号的赛轮新和平工厂，见到突然到访的 记者，赛轮新和平（沈阳）轮胎有限公司总经理助理李建磊笑着迎上来，简单打过招呼就直奔车间。 中国轮胎行业领军企业之一赛轮集团，是中国首家A股上市的民营轮胎企业，总部位于山东省青岛市。去年7月，赛轮沈阳以2.6亿元完成工厂收购，后 续分两期投入建设：一期投资6亿元用于产线升级改造，二期追加投资1 ...

陈屹 国金证券化工首席: 好的，谢谢惠助理。各位同事大家早早上好，也祝大家新年快乐，投资大吉。我是国金化 工陈意，那么我们本周的这个主题其实更多的是围绕着新年化工买什么？那么我先由我这 边来汇报一下，就是整个板块新年的一个边际变化，以及之后的一个投资的一个建议，那 么先由我这边开始讲一下，先讲一下整个板块的一个变化和投资建议。我会把它串起来讲 然后我们的理解是这样，就是站在新年来看，我们的理解，方向上面的话，主要是两个方 向。第一个是整个新兴的一个产业，第二个的话就是传统的一个周期。 那么在新兴产业这边的话，我们的理解今年主要是两个两条主线两条主线，第一条主线的 话就是通胀的环节，就是进一步通胀的环节，我一个理解就是随着整个人工智能需求的一 个进步进一步增长。那么整个就是越会有越来越多的通胀环节会出现。比如说在年前的话 除了大家常关注的像比如说 PCB 存储之外的话，我们也看到像电子布等等这些产品的话， 也出现了通胀的一个迹象。所以我们的理解，通胀的品种会越来越多。那么以今年的这个 过年期间的话，其实也有个重要的一个新闻，就是存储，存储现在市场其实在不断的一个 上调预期，大，比如说以 SK 海力士为例，它也有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

Company Fundamentals - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 1.041 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.71%, with a cumulative net profit for the first three quarters down 11.47% [1] - Despite an 8.30% year-on-year decrease in raw material costs, the overall gross margin slightly improved to 25%, but the speed of profit recovery was below market expectations [1] Investment Activities - The investment amount for the Indonesian base increased to 299.7 million USD (approximately 2.148 billion yuan), with semi-steel tire production capacity doubling to 6 million units [2] - However, the net cash outflow from investment activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.60% [2] Stock Price and Market Performance - As of February 13, the stock price was below the 20-day moving average (16.12 yuan), with a MACD histogram value of -0.079 and a KDJ J value of 1.096, indicating an oversold condition without strong rebound signals [3] - On the same day, there was a net inflow of 74.94 million yuan in main funds, but the cumulative decline over the past five days reached 5.80%, reflecting market concerns about the short-term fundamentals [3] Industry and Risk Analysis - The EU's tightening of anti-dumping policies on Chinese tires poses challenges, although the company is attempting to fulfill orders through its Southeast Asian factories [4] - The Indonesian project faces local policy and exchange rate risks, while domestic tire companies are intensively expanding production, leading to increased price competition that may suppress overall gross margins [4] - Overall, the expansion in Indonesia is a critical step in the company's globalization strategy, but short-term performance pressures, capital investments, and bearish technical indicators are contributing to the weak stock price [4]

投资要点： | 风险提示：在建项目不及预期、成本端剧烈波动风险。 | | --- | 公 司 研 究 坚定推进"7 加 5"战略布局，智能制造加速出海 玲珑轮胎(601966) 玲珑轮胎跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | | 本报告导读： 公司坚定推进"7+5"战略布局，智能制造加速出海。 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 20.10 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | 14.92 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 14.24-18.23 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly, and the reconstruction of its downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices [2][94][95] - Attention can be paid to the fluctuation opportunities of periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, but it is necessary to grasp the trading main line and take timely profit - taking for long positions [2][93][95] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cambodia Rubber Producing Area Supply - Demand Status and Future Development Trends 3.1.1 Producing Area Basic Overview: Resource Endowment and Industry Positioning - Agriculture is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia's economy, and natural rubber is regarded as an important strategic crop. The Cambodian government hopes that the rubber industry will bring sustainable benefits to all stakeholders [4] - Cambodia is located in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula in Asia, with a tropical monsoon climate suitable for rubber growth. The top four rubber - producing provinces in 2023 accounted for 67.89% of the planting area [5] - The earliest rubber planting in Cambodia dates back to 1910. After independence, the rubber planting industry reached its peak in 1967. After being damaged by the civil war, it gradually recovered. Currently, Cambodia is the seventh - largest rubber - producing country [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Supply**: The rubber production in Cambodia grew rapidly from 2010 - 2020, with an average compound growth rate of 23.52%, and the growth rate decreased after 2021, with a rate of only 3.43% from 2021 - 2024. The single - yield has been steadily increasing since 2019 and reached the median level of Southeast Asian producing countries in 2024 [20][21] - **Demand**: Currently, Cambodia's rubber export accounts for a large proportion, mainly exporting raw materials to Vietnam. With the production of Chinese - funded tire enterprises in Cambodia, the local rubber is expected to be in short supply, the direct rubber export volume will decline, and the tire export will increase rapidly. The tire export is mainly to the United States [33][42][45] 3.1.3 Development Bottlenecks and Future Trends - **Development Bottlenecks**: The rubber industry in Cambodia faces problems such as labor shortage, farmers' conversion to other crops, insufficient infrastructure construction, and unstable power supply, which may limit the growth of local tire production capacity [48][51] - **Future Outlook**: From 2026 - 2030, the planting area is expected to continue to grow with the upward shift of rubber prices, the growth rate of the harvested area may slow down, and the single - yield will steadily increase, with a slight increase in production. The government plans to increase the harvested area to about 331,000 hectares, the single - yield to about 1400 kg/ha, and the production to about 463,000 tons by 2030 [53][54][55] 3.2 Review and Comments on Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Incidents 3.2.1 Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Timeline and Market Response - **2008 - 2011 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict**: Rooted in historical territorial disputes, especially over the Preah Vihear Temple. There were several small - scale conflicts during this period, and the impact on the market was limited by macro - factors [60][61][62] - **2025 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict**: There were multiple rounds of conflicts, including sporadic and large - scale ones. The market showed different reactions each time, but the impact on the market was generally short - lived. The market gradually became more rational in evaluating the impact of the conflicts [70][74][83] 3.2.2 Impact of Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict on Rubber Producing Area Tapping Operations - The conflict mainly affects rubber production in terms of the scope of influence, impact time, and foreign labor. The conflict in December 2025, which lasted for a long time and occurred during the production season, had a greater impact on production. The conflict also led to the continuous loss of foreign labor in Thailand's 7 border provinces and Cambodian - origin foreign labor across Thailand [86][87][90] 3.3 Supply Expected to Increase Slightly, Pay Attention to Geopolitical Fluctuation Opportunities in the Short Term - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly. The reconstruction of the downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices. The periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia may bring market fluctuation opportunities [93][94][95]

2026 年，轮胎行业迎来了戴维斯双击的机会，预计整个板块有翻倍空间。业 绩和估值是主要驱动力。业绩方面，预计贡献约 30%的市值弹性，核心在于量 和利润率的提升。量增主要来自于中国轮胎企业在海外市场的扩张，目前中国 轮胎在海外市场份额仍小于 20%，未来 3-5 年乃至 5-10 年将持续增加产能。 例如，中策、赛轮和森麒麟等公司将在 2026 年分别有多个工厂投产，这将显 著提升产量并带来新的业绩增量。 利润率方面，美国市场自 2025 年 4 月加税 后，税率分摊在 3%到 100%之间。预计 2026 年将逐步通过涨价转嫁给终端 消费者，从而修复和提升利润率。而欧洲市场则由于对中国半钢胎实施反倾销 措施，使得国内小规模生产商无法直接出口到欧洲，这为头部企业提供了提价 机会，有望进一步提高利润率。 估值方面，中国高端配套业务将在 2026 年迎 来初始元年，这不仅使配套业务从不赚钱转变为盈利，还打开了新的成长空间。 此外，中国企业正在进行全球散点式布局，如墨西哥、摩洛哥、塞尔维亚等地， 以规避贸易政策变化带来的风险。这些因素共同推动板块估值从过去 10 倍提 升至 15-20 倍及以上。 三角轮胎 20 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Senqilin and the Tire Industry Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese tire industry, specifically highlighting Senqilin, along with other companies like Zhongce and Sailun, and their expansion into overseas markets [2][4][12]. Key Points and Arguments Market Potential and Growth - Chinese tire companies currently hold less than 20% of the overseas market share, indicating significant room for growth as new factories from companies like Zhongce, Sailun, and Senqilin come online in 2026, leading to increased production capacity and performance growth [2][4]. - The tire sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" opportunity in 2026, with potential for the entire sector to double in growth, driven by both performance and valuation improvements [3]. Performance Drivers - Performance growth is attributed to volume increases and profit margin improvements. The overseas market share is still low, and new factory outputs will significantly enhance profits [4]. - Senqilin's Moroccan factory is designed to produce 12 million semi-steel tires, with a projected production ramp-up that could yield over 40% performance elasticity once it reaches full capacity [4][13]. Tariff Impacts - The U.S. will impose tariffs starting April 2025, which will affect Chinese companies' U.S. business. Companies plan to gradually pass these costs onto consumers, expecting to restore profit margins over the coming quarters [5][9]. - The European anti-dumping policy, expected to be implemented in March 2026, will impose tariffs on Chinese semi-steel tires, benefiting large Chinese tire companies with quality production capabilities, allowing them to increase prices and improve profit margins [5][10][11]. High-End Market Opportunities - 2026 marks the beginning of high-end tire supply opportunities for Chinese companies, with a focus on increasing market share in the high-end segment, which is currently dominated by brands like Michelin and Goodyear [6][12]. Overseas Production Expansion - Chinese tire companies are diversifying their overseas production locations beyond Southeast Asia to include Morocco, Serbia, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brazil, which helps mitigate risks from potential regional production restrictions [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The European anti-dumping policy will significantly impact smaller tire manufacturers in regions like Shandong, as they have relied heavily on exports to Europe. This shift will create opportunities for larger Chinese companies to fill the supply gap, enhancing their sales and pricing power [8][10]. Senqilin's Financial Performance - Senqilin's business is primarily focused on semi-steel tires, with an overseas revenue share of approximately 90%. The company has a net profit margin close to 30%, attributed to its export-oriented strategy [12]. - The market values Senqilin at a PE ratio of around 13-15 times, reflecting strong performance and a consistent ROE near 20% [12]. Additional Important Insights - The Moroccan factory's production ramp-up is crucial for Senqilin's performance, with expectations of reaching full capacity by April 2026, which will significantly impact the company's stock price [13][14]. - Investors are advised to monitor developments related to the Moroccan factory, European tariffs, and currency fluctuations, as these factors currently suppress Senqilin's stock price but may present a buying opportunity as issues are resolved [14].

Overview - The semi-steel tire industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the continuous prosperity of the passenger car market, with total sales expected to reach 650 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1][7]. - Domestic sales are projected to be 322 million units, accounting for 49.54% of total semi-steel tire sales [1][7]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the development of the tire industry, including guidelines for high-quality development in the petrochemical sector and encouragement for foreign investment [5][6]. Industry Chain - The semi-steel tire industry consists of upstream suppliers of raw materials, midstream research and production, and downstream markets focused on passenger vehicles [6][7]. - The automotive industry is a crucial pillar of China's economy, with significant growth expected in passenger car production and sales, projected to reach 30.27 million and 30.10 million units respectively by 2025 [7]. Current Development - The semi-steel tire industry is expanding rapidly, with production expected to reach 661 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, representing 55.73% of the total tire production in China [7][8]. - Major production regions include Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guizhou, and Fujian, with Shandong alone accounting for 46% of total production [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of the semi-steel tire industry has significantly increased, with the top 10 companies holding a market share of 56.5% in 2024 [9]. - Linglong Tire leads the domestic market with a sales volume of 35.72 million units, capturing an 11.1% market share [9]. - Other notable companies include Zhongce Rubber and Giti Tire, with market shares of 10.4% and 7.7% respectively [9]. Key Companies - **Linglong Tire**: A comprehensive tire company focusing on design, manufacturing, and sales, with a revenue of 11.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and a significant presence in the new energy vehicle sector [9][10]. - **Zhongce Rubber**: Engaged in the production of various tire types, with a revenue of 39.25 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [10]. Development Trends - The industry is moving towards green and low-carbon production, with an emphasis on eliminating high-energy consumption and high-emission capacities [11]. - The rise of electric vehicles is driving innovation in tire technology, focusing on low rolling resistance and smart tire solutions [12]. - Domestic brands are increasingly replacing foreign brands, leading to a more concentrated market with a shift towards technology and brand competition [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry improved in January, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for 2026, with the CCPI-raw material price spread reaching 2631, up from 2500 at the end of 2025 [1][9]. - The demand for chemical products is shifting from real estate to consumer goods, infrastructure, and emerging technologies, with significant growth potential driven by global economic trends [2][11]. - The capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry has been declining since June 2025, suggesting a supply-side adjustment is approaching, which may lead to improved profitability in the sector [2][16]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January, oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and strong global crude oil replenishment demand, leading to a slight improvement in the price spread of most chemical products [9][21]. - Major price increases were observed in products like lithium carbonate and butadiene, while some products like methyltrichlorosilane saw price declines due to supply adjustments [3][33]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The January PMI was reported at 49.3, indicating a continued bottoming out in the real estate sector, while consumer goods and major infrastructure showed positive growth [2][11]. - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, supported by the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and North America, and economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][11][14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential recovery, such as oil and gas, basic chemicals, and companies leveraging synthetic biology for cost reduction [32]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Baofeng Energy, and Yun Tianhua, among others, highlighting their potential for growth and profitability [7][32]. Monthly Performance Review - In January, the basic chemical index rose by 12.72%, with significant gains in sub-sectors like dye chemicals and petrochemical raw materials [34][36]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with various sub-sectors showing positive price movements and improved market conditions [34][36].