有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 风物长宜放眼量 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2026 年第 5 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 金银比突破 50，贵金属有望带领工业金属 加 速 上 涨 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 （2 ...

Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth and transformation of China's copper smelting industry, emphasizing the shift towards green and intelligent manufacturing in response to global trends and domestic demands [2][6]. - China's refined copper production is projected to reach 13.644 million tons in 2024, marking a 5.1% increase from 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% observed in the first seven months of 2025 [1][2]. - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing a continuous trade deficit, with the total import and export value of related products reaching 811.856 billion yuan in 2024, and the trade deficit expanding by 114.513 billion yuan [6][7]. Group 2 - The average import price of copper smelting-related products has shown an upward trend from 2019 to July 2025, with significant increases during the 2020-2021 period due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [8]. - China's position as a major consumer in the global refined copper market is expected to strengthen, with the country's share of global refined copper production and sales anticipated to increase further [2].

Core Viewpoint - The significant disparity in performance among gold stocks is attributed to the ability of some fund managers to adjust their portfolios in advance, avoiding major downturns, while others did not, leading to substantial losses [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold stocks has seen some funds experience minimal drawdowns, while others have nearly erased their gains from the past year, highlighting the importance of understanding the true sentiment of capital in the market [3]. - Many investors rely solely on market trends and news, which can lead to poor investment decisions, as the underlying capital participation varies significantly among stocks within the same sector [3][4]. Group 2: Case Studies - An example is provided of an investor who faced significant losses due to relying on price movements and news, illustrating the pitfalls of not recognizing the underlying trading logic [4][5]. - The investor's experience demonstrates that stocks can appear to be on the verge of collapse or recovery based solely on price charts, without considering the actual trading activity of larger funds [10][12]. Group 3: Quantitative Data Insights - Utilizing quantitative data, such as "institutional inventory," can reveal the active participation of large funds, helping investors discern market realities beyond superficial price movements [8][10]. - The analysis of institutional inventory data shows that sustained activity indicates ongoing interest from large funds, while a decline suggests a lack of interest, which can lead to misleading price movements [10][12]. Group 4: Advantages of Quantitative Tools - Quantitative tools simplify complex trading data into intuitive indicators, enabling even novice investors to make informed decisions without being swayed by emotional reactions to market fluctuations [13]. - The proactive adjustments made by fund managers using quantitative analysis exemplify the effectiveness of this approach in navigating market volatility [13][14]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Recent market corrections are viewed as temporary emotional releases rather than signs of a trend reversal, encouraging a long-term investment mindset [14]. - Investors are advised to enhance their understanding of market dynamics through quantitative tools, fostering a more stable and confident approach to investment decisions [14].

湖南黄金触及涨停，晓程科技涨超10%，山金国际、山东黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金等跌幅收窄。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Gold Companies - Shandong Gold (600547) is a leading domestic gold mining company with strong state-owned background, focusing on the Jiaodong Peninsula and possessing several top-tier gold mines, ensuring a complete gold industry chain from exploration to processing [1][12] - Chifeng Gold (600988) is a pioneer in internationalization within the gold industry, with high-grade core mining resources and significant cost advantages, actively expanding overseas projects in countries like Laos and Ghana [1][12] - Zijin Mining (601899) is a global mining giant with gold and copper as its core businesses, boasting extensive mineral resource layouts and advanced mining management techniques, providing strong support during market fluctuations [1][12] - Zhongjin Gold (600489) is a state-owned enterprise with a comprehensive gold industry chain, strong resource acquisition capabilities, and significant market presence in gold processing and circulation [1][12] - Western Gold (601069) is a leading gold mining company in Xinjiang, leveraging regional resource advantages and optimizing mining processes to enhance competitiveness [1][12] - Hunan Gold (002155) operates in both gold and antimony sectors, with a complete industry chain and strong market position in rare metals, effectively mitigating price volatility risks [1][12] - Yintai Gold (000975) focuses on gold and silver mining, with competitive mining costs and advanced recovery rates, continuously enhancing profitability through resource exploration [1][12] - Hengbang Shares (002237) is a leading gold smelting company with advanced technology and a complete industry chain, ensuring stable profitability and strong market presence [1][12] - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) combines gold mining with integrated circuits, benefiting from overseas gold assets and enhancing profitability through diversified operations [1][12] - Shengda Resources (000603) is a comprehensive precious metal resource developer with a stable production capacity and strong market presence in gold and silver [1][12] Silver Companies - Yuguang Gold and Lead (600531) is a leading silver smelting company with advanced technology and high recovery rates, focusing on high-value-added silver products [2][14] - Xingye Mining (000426) is a leading silver and multi-metal mining company with strong resource reserves and high recovery rates, effectively mitigating silver price volatility risks [2][14] - Chihong Zinc and Germanium (600497) focuses on silver and zinc-germanium, leveraging abundant resources and advanced mining techniques to maintain strong market competitiveness [2][14] - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060) is a large non-ferrous metal enterprise with a strong silver business, emphasizing technological innovation and resource utilization [2][14] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) integrates copper smelting with silver recovery, maintaining high recovery rates and product quality [2][14] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) is a comprehensive copper giant with a strong silver business, focusing on multi-metal development and technological innovation [2][14] - Western Mining (601168) is a multi-metal mining company with significant silver resources, emphasizing production capacity upgrades and cost control [2][14] - Yundeng Technology (000409) combines silver mining with smart mining technology, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [2][14] - Guoyan Platinum (600459) is a leader in precious metal deep processing, focusing on high-end silver products and maintaining a strong market position [2][14] - Western Materials (002149) specializes in rare metal processing with a focus on high-end silver products, ensuring stable market demand and high added value [2][14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that gold and silver prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with a long-term outlook suggesting that the "rate cut trade" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze price movements, supported by central bank gold purchases amid a backdrop of protectionism and great power competition [1][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices have risen by 8.04% to $4981.85 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 13.65% to $103.19 per ounce over the past two weeks [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw gold prices rise by 12.51% to 1161.42 yuan per gram, and silver prices surged by 24.28% to 27941 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Palladium prices increased by 3.70% to $1820 per ounce, while platinum prices slightly decreased by 0.04% to $2300 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold and Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with a 10 to 2 vote, indicating a stable economic expansion in the U.S. and a focus on both inflation and employment risks [3]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a potential influence on future interest rate decisions, with discussions around rate cuts expected [3]. - A temporary compromise in Congress has averted a government shutdown, which may impact market stability and investor sentiment [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The dual themes of "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices, with significant events to watch in early February, including U.S. employment data and CPI figures [4]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain robust, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7415 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [5].

以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内 伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎司，涨幅为4.23%。 数据方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比初值5.3%，前值-2.1%，预期3.8%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(下 限)3.5%，前值3.5%，预期3.5%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(上限)3.75%，前值3.75%，预期3.75%。美 国1月24日当周首次申请失业救济人数20.9万人，前值20万人，预期20.5万人。美国12月PPI同比3%，前 值3%，预期2.8%。 本周美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。在本次决议中，美联储的两 位理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒投出了反对票，他们倾向于降息25个基点。周五，特朗普总统宣 布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持更高 利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点，认为利率可以大幅降低。 华鑫证券近 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Notable individual stock performances include: - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) rose by 18.67% to a closing price of 64.91, with a trading volume of 764,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.464 billion [1] - Hunan Gold (002155) increased by 10.00% to 36.63, with a trading volume of 2.1637 million shares and a transaction value of 7.620 billion [1] - Chifeng Gold (600988) saw a modest increase of 2.31% to 39.78, with a trading volume of 1.9924 million shares and a transaction value of 7.412 billion [1] Group 2 - The precious metals sector experienced a net outflow of 3.057 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.521 billion [2] - The individual stock fund flows indicate that Hunan Silver (002716) had a significant net outflow of 2.21 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.95 billion [3] - Sichuan Gold (001337) faced a net outflow of 1.91 billion from institutional investors, but retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.32 billion [3]