保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The top five sectors with the highest excess returns for long positions in January 2026 (excluding comprehensive) are Defense and Military, Communication, Agriculture, Home Appliances, and Electric Equipment & New Energy, with excess returns of 11.41%, 8.40%, 7.85%, 6.01%, and 4.98% respectively [2]. - Over the past year, the sectors with the highest average monthly excess returns (excluding comprehensive) are Real Estate, Home Appliances, Retail, Construction, and Defense and Military, with excess returns of 2.17%, 2.09%, 1.69%, 1.69%, and 1.58% respectively [2]. - The GAN_GRU factor has shown a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.1107 and an annualized excess return of 22.36% from January 2019 to January 2026 [41]. - As of January 28, 2026, the latest IC for the GAN_GRU factor is 0.0003, with a one-year mean IC of 0.0553 [41]. - The top five sectors based on the recent IC performance of the GAN_GRU factor are Defense and Military, Construction, Real Estate, Banking, and Communication, with IC values of 0.3498, 0.2478, 0.2165, 0.1993, and 0.1976 respectively [41]. - The long position combination based on the GAN_GRU factor has shown the highest excess returns in the sectors of Defense and Military, Communication, Agriculture, Home Appliances, and Electric Equipment & New Energy [45]. Summary by Sections GAN_GRU Model Overview - The GAN_GRU model utilizes Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing time-series features and GRU for encoding these features into stock selection factors [4][13]. GAN_GRU Factor Performance - The GAN_GRU factor has demonstrated significant performance metrics, including a mean IC of 0.1107 and an annualized excess return of 22.36% [41]. - The recent IC rankings for various sectors indicate strong performance in Defense and Military, Construction, and Real Estate [41][45]. Long Position Combinations - The report lists the top ten stocks selected based on the GAN_GRU factor, including companies like Xinhua Insurance, Guanghong Technology, and Guangdong Expressway [50].

2026年1月28日，葫芦岛金融监管分局发布批复称，《新华人寿保险股份有限公司辽宁分公司关于变更 葫芦岛中心支公司营业场所的请示》(新保辽字〔2026〕4号)收悉。经审核，现批复如下： 一、同意将新华人寿保险股份有限公司葫芦岛中心支公司营业场所变更为：辽宁省葫芦岛市龙港区龙湾 大街48号国美大厦A座16层。 二、新华人寿保险股份有限公司应按照有关规定及时办理变更及许可证换领事宜。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 29, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF rising 0.93%, IH rising 1.89%, IC falling 1.01%, and IM falling 0.59% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 16,902 lots, IH by 22,491 lots, IC by 33,619 lots, and IM by 53,901 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF decreased by 2,391 lots, IH increased by 9,827 lots, IC increased by 11,434 lots, and IM increased by 28,829 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The A - share market had mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.57%. The Hong Kong stock market also had mixed trends, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.51% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 1%. The US stock market also showed mixed trends, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Index falling 0.72% [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2602 is 4,774.6, up 0.93% with a basis of 20.73, trading volume of 29,602 lots (down 3,031 lots), and open interest of 39,478 lots (down 4,000 lots); IF2603 closed at 4,784, up 1.00% with a basis of 30.13, trading volume of 99,189 lots (up 14,802 lots), and open interest of 184,884 lots (down 956 lots); IF2606 closed at 4,771.6, up 1.14% with a basis of 17.73, trading volume of 22,864 lots (up 4,054 lots), and open interest of 75,918 lots (up 454 lots); IF2609 closed at 4,727, up 1.18% with a basis of - 26.87, trading volume of 8,149 lots (up 1,077 lots), and open interest of 23,277 lots (up 2,111 lots) [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2602 is 3,124.2, up 1.89% with a basis of 13.29, trading volume of 18,254 lots (up 4,018 lots), and open interest of 18,317 lots (up 840 lots); IH2603 closed at 3,130.4, up 1.95% with a basis of 19.49, trading volume of 51,786 lots (up 13,449 lots), and open interest of 73,669 lots (up 5,903 lots); IH2606 closed at 3,132.6, up 1.97% with a basis of 21.69, trading volume of 10,933 lots (up 3,244 lots), and open interest of 27,019 lots (up 1,475 lots); IH2609 closed at 3,108.6, up 1.99% with a basis of - 2.31, trading volume of 4,899 lots (up 1,780 lots), and open interest of 9,224 lots (up 1,609 lots) [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2602 is 8,531.2, down 1.01% with a basis of 13.36, trading volume of 29,632 lots (up 1,072 lots), and open interest of 46,369 lots (up 1,063 lots); IC2603 closed at 8,517.6, down 1.16% with a basis of - 0.24, trading volume of 115,687 lots (up 21,572 lots), and open interest of 170,962 lots (up 3,667 lots); IC2606 closed at 8,463, down 1.13% with a basis of - 54.84, trading volume of 43,590 lots (up 6,546 lots), and open interest of 100,860 lots (up 2,183 lots); IC2609 closed at 8,374, down 0.98% with a basis of - 143.8, trading volume of 15,369 lots (up 4,429 lots), and open interest of 35,641 lots (up 4,521 lots) [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2602 is 8,351.4, down 0.59% with a basis of 19.19, trading volume of 40,923 lots (up 7,560 lots), and open interest of 58,886 lots (up 2,143 lots); IM2603 closed at 8,329, down 0.53% with a basis of - 3.21, trading volume of 147,818 lots (up 33,074 lots), and open interest of 196,369 lots (up 29,074 lots); IM2606 closed at 8,199.6, down 0.46% with a basis of - 132.6, trading volume of 39,840 lots (up 8,223 lots), and open interest of 111,756 lots (up 4,566 lots); IM2609 closed at 8,048, down 0.21% with a basis of - 284.2, trading volume of 19,400 lots (up 5,044 lots), and open interest of 44,584 lots (up 6,089 lots) [1] 2. Top 20 Member Positions Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2601, long positions decreased by 2,881 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,926 lots with a net short - position change of 1,656 lots; for IF2602, long positions decreased by 585 lots with a net long - position change of - 584 lots, and short positions decreased by 649 lots; for IF2603, long positions increased by 1,136 lots, and short positions increased by 147 lots; for IF2606, long positions increased by 1,746 lots, and short positions increased by 1,772 lots [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2601, long positions increased by 972 lots with a net long - position change of 7,433 lots, and short positions increased by 945 lots; for IH2602, long positions increased by 4,744 lots, and short positions increased by 5,836 lots with a net short - position change of 7,976 lots; for IH2603, long positions increased by 1,717 lots, and short positions increased by 1,195 lots; IH2606 data was not公布 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2601, long positions increased by 1,255 lots with a net long - position change of 10,149 lots, and short positions increased by 1,112 lots; for IC2602, long positions increased by 3,732 lots, and short positions increased by 2,779 lots with a net short - position change of 10,535 lots; for IC2603, long positions increased by 1,555 lots, and short positions increased by 2,434 lots; for IC2606, long positions increased by 3,607 lots, and short positions increased by 4,210 lots [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2601, long positions increased by 1,471 lots, and short positions increased by 1,442 lots; for IM2602, long positions increased by 14,597 lots, and short positions increased by 15,131 lots; for IM2603, long positions increased by 4,268 lots with a net long - position change of 20,336 lots, and short positions increased by 3,819 lots with a net short - position change of 20,392 lots; IM2606 data was not公布 [5] 3. Trend Strength and Important Drivers - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 4,157.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%. The liquor sector, gold stocks, oil and gas stocks, real estate, and insurance stocks were active, while the semiconductor and AI computing power industry chains adjusted significantly. The total trading volume in the A - share market was 3.26 trillion yuan, compared with 2.99 trillion yuan the previous day. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.51% to 27,968.09 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.42%. The real estate stocks were strong, and the technology stocks generally fell. The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market was HK$331.994 billion, down from HK$361.523 billion the previous day. In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 49,071.56 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.13% to 6,969.01 points, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.72% to 23,685.12 points. Large - cap technology stocks had mixed trends [6][7]

|2026年1月30日 星期五| NO.1保险板块震荡走强，新华保险涨超3%，创历史新高 1月29日午后，保险板块震荡走强，新华保险盘中涨超3%，股价创历史新高，中国太保涨近5%，中国 平安涨幅靠前，中国人寿、中国人保跟涨。 NO.5美联储宣布维持基准利率不变 点评：券商分析，分红险持续深化带动结构改善，银保渠道网点拓张赋能新单增长，"报行合一"细化有 望持续贡献价值率增量，预计2026年上市险企合计新业务价值增速或在15%以上的水平。 今日，中国太平保险集团在上海召开2026年工作会议。会议透露，新会计准则下，中国太平集团2025年 营业收入1726.2亿元，同比增长1.1%；2025年年末管理投资资产2.5万亿元，较年初增长4%；2025年年 末总资产1.8万亿元，较年初增长11.7%，太平控股全年股价上涨超60%。 点评：中国太平集团在2025年展现出稳健的发展态势，总资产较年初增长11.7%，全年股价上涨超 60%，在行业转型与市场竞争加剧的背景下，反映了资本市场对其战略执行与经营韧性的认可。 NO.4宋绍富获批担任锦泰财险总经理 近日，国家金融监管总局四川监管局发布批复，核准宋绍富锦泰财产总经理的任 ...

Group 1 - Trump will announce the Federal Reserve chairperson candidate next week, suggesting interest rates should decrease by 2 to 3 percentage points [10] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks purchased a net 230 tons of gold in Q4, with strong demand expected to continue into 2026 [13] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin levels for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures [13] Group 2 - The U.S. government is facing another potential shutdown crisis as the Senate failed to advance a funding bill [13] - The Indonesian stock market experienced a significant drop, triggering a trading halt, prompting authorities to respond by increasing the minimum float requirement for stocks [11] - The Chinese government is planning to develop more "space+" future industries, including space mining and space tourism [16]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, the impact on the dollar-centric system, and uncertainties from the Trump 2.0 policies, has made gold the dominant asset in financial markets, with prices reaching unprecedented levels [1][25]. Market Dynamics - On January 29, international gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2.23%, marking a year-to-date increase of over 27% [2][1]. - Consumers are flocking to gold stores, with wait times for gold buyback reaching two hours, and many banks reporting shortages of physical gold [11][10]. Consumer Behavior - The traditional investment philosophy of "buying high" has attracted many investors, leading to increased foot traffic in gold stores, particularly in Beijing and Shenzhen [3][5]. - In Beijing's flagship gold store, the price of investment gold reached 1,240.90 yuan per gram, while gold jewelry prices surged to 1,622 yuan per gram [3][5]. Supply Chain Impact - The gold price increase has created a disparity in the gold supply chain, benefiting upstream miners while negatively impacting midstream and downstream businesses [14][15]. - Upstream mining companies like Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold are reporting significant profit increases due to higher gold prices, with net profit forecasts showing growth of 59%-62% [14]. Investment Trends - The gold investment sector is experiencing a boom, with many gold stocks hitting consecutive daily limits, and gold-themed ETFs seeing substantial inflows [18][19]. - As of January 29, several gold ETFs reported transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting heightened investor interest [18]. Risk and Strategy - Experts advise against blindly chasing high gold prices, suggesting that investors should consider risk management and asset allocation strategies [27][28]. - The current market environment indicates that while gold serves as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, its price volatility necessitates a cautious approach to investment [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance funds are significantly penetrating the medical, health, and elderly care industries, with over 400 billion yuan invested, driven by aging population and health strategies [2][4]. Investment Scale and Focus - As of 2025, insurance funds are projected to invest over 1.5 trillion yuan in medical-related assets through various investment products, including debt and equity plans [4]. - Direct investments in the medical and elderly care sectors have reached nearly 30 billion yuan, covering biotechnology, new drug technology, and medical devices [4]. - The insurance industry is also focusing on building elderly care communities, with 130 projects expected by the end of 2024, marking a 38% year-on-year increase [5]. Strategic Shift - Insurance companies are transitioning from "risk compensators" to "health and elderly care ecosystem builders," aiming to create a "second growth curve" through integrated services [2][6]. - The competition is shifting from resource allocation to ecological collaboration efficiency, emphasizing the integration of insurance, services, and data [10]. Market Potential - The health and elderly care industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 9.8 trillion yuan by 2025, with expectations to grow to 14.6 trillion yuan by 2030 [7]. - Policies are encouraging insurance companies to integrate their services with health management and elderly care, enhancing their strategic importance [8]. Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to accelerate its investment in health and elderly care, leveraging policy guidance to create differentiated competitive advantages [8][9]. - The focus will be on transforming health management from a cost center to a profit center, with a need for sustainable business models [12]. - Challenges include talent shortages, data integration, and aligning product design with the actual risks faced by the elderly population [12].

1月17日，国家能源局发布数据显示，2025年，全社会用电量累计103682亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。业内人士向21世纪经济报道记者表示，全社会用电量突破10万亿千瓦时，在全球范围内 尚属首次。 【点击查看详情】 政策速递 《洞见ESG》1月刊 国家级零碳园区来了！ 监管声音 监管声音｜五部门发文：2027年前在汽车等重点领域培育零碳工厂 1月19日，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、生态环境部、国务院国资委、国家能源局等五部 门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》（工信部联节〔2026〕13号，以下简称 《指导意见》）。 【点击查看详情】 监管声音｜全球首次！用电量破10万亿，中国经济引擎拆解 政策速递｜全国生态环境保护工作会议部署七大重点任务 1月14日至15日，生态环境部在京召开2026年全国生态环境保护工作会议。会议部署了2026年 七大重点任务，其中提到持续深入推进污染防治攻坚和生态系统优化，深入打好蓝天、碧水、 净土保卫战，加强固体废物综合治理，强化新污染物治理，加强生态保护修复监管。 【点击查 看详情】 政策速递｜绿证管理实施细则落地，超过有效期绿证将强制下架并核销 1月7日，国家能 ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with Xinhua Insurance exemplifying this shift through its professional agents and commitment to service [2][3][4] - Xinhua Insurance achieved a total original insurance premium income of nearly 195.9 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in individual insurance channels [2][6] - The "XIN Generation" initiative launched in 2024 has evolved into a comprehensive training system for Whole Life-cycle Planners (WLP), reflecting a strategic shift from quantity to quality in agent recruitment and development [4][5] Industry Transformation - The Chinese insurance industry is undergoing a deep transformation, moving from rapid growth to high-quality development, necessitated by changing economic conditions and consumer demands [3][4] - The number of insurance agents in China has decreased from 9.12 million in 2019 to over 2.6 million by the end of 2024, indicating a significant decline in the "human sea tactics" approach [3] - The introduction of the new "National Ten Policies" has accelerated the consensus on marketing system reforms within the industry, prompting Xinhua Insurance to lead in transforming its sales force [3][4] Training and Development - The "XIN Generation" plan focuses on providing agents with multidimensional career growth opportunities, moving away from the previous model that emphasized sheer numbers [4] - By the end of 2024, Xinhua Insurance had conducted approximately 18,000 professional training sessions under the WLP system, with over 1.19 million participants and a total training duration exceeding 4.87 million hours [4] - The upgraded WLP 2.0 system aims to create a comprehensive planning service framework, integrating various aspects of life insurance, health, retirement, wealth, and education [4][5] Performance and Growth - Xinhua Insurance's dual strategy of enhancing product offerings and service ecosystems has led to improved agent performance and customer satisfaction [5][6] - The company has introduced new insurance products that align with market demands, resulting in reduced communication costs for agents and shorter client signing cycles [5] - In 2025, Xinhua Insurance added over 30,000 new agents, achieving a 140% year-on-year increase, with a 50% rise in per capita productivity [6][7] Financial Impact - The integration of health and wellness services has generated nearly 20 billion yuan in premium income, demonstrating the effectiveness of the dual empowerment model [7] - Xinhua Insurance's policy retention rate improved, with a decrease in the cancellation rate to 1.2%, and a significant 50.8% increase in new business value year-on-year [7] - The company aims to establish itself as a leading financial service group centered on insurance, focusing on sustainable growth across multiple dimensions [7]