证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 21 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 市场有望再上一个台阶 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—7 月政治局会议前瞻——20250720 【金融工程】市场有望再上一个台阶——20250720 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数略微下降——20250719 【固定收益】如何看待商品价格大涨对债市冲击？——20250720 【固定收益】税期过后资金回落——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250719 【固定收益】今年农商缘何配债缓慢——几个推测——20250719 【固定收益】与周期和创新共舞——低利率时代资管机构之美国公募篇 ——20250718 【轻工制造】日本谷子经济复盘：以日为鉴，成功密码是什么？—— 20250720 【银行】本周聚焦—25Q2 存贷款增长有哪些特征？——20250720 【食品饮料】技源集团：HMB 全球龙头， 营养健康产业链延伸——保健 品行业专题三——20250718 【医药&美妆】时代天使（06699.HK）-国产隐形正畸龙头，出海打开成 长天花板——20250719 【建材】苏博特（603916.SH）-混 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2nm process is set to begin mass production in the second half of this year, with strong demand from major clients like Apple, AMD, and Intel, leading to significant capacity expansion plans [1][2] Group 1: Production Capacity - TSMC plans to increase its 2nm monthly production capacity from 40,000 wafers by the end of this year to 100,000 wafers next year, representing a 150% increase [1] - By 2027, TSMC aims to further expand its 2nm capacity to between 160,000 and 180,000 wafers, with the potential to reach 200,000 wafers if demand exceeds expectations [1][2] - Currently, TSMC's advanced process capacities include approximately 160,000 wafers for the 7nm process, slightly over 160,000 for the 5nm process, and about 130,000 wafers for the 3nm process, with potential adjustments to reach 160,000 wafers [2] Group 2: Client Demand and Market Position - Major clients expected to adopt TSMC's 2nm process include Apple, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and NVIDIA, indicating a broad market interest [1][2] - TSMC's advanced process expansion is anticipated to drive revenue growth, as newer processes command higher pricing, benefiting the company's operational performance [2] - The company expects that the number of product designs utilizing its 2nm technology in the first two years will surpass those for the 3nm and 5nm processes during their respective initial periods [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The electronic sub-industry index saw significant gains, with the component sector rising by 39.84% year-to-date [2][8] - The upcoming release of GPT-5 is expected to drive continued demand for computing power, with notable advancements in AI models [2] - NVIDIA's H20 GPU sales are anticipated to resume, indicating strong ongoing AI demand, as stated by TSMC [2] - The report suggests focusing on both overseas and domestic AI-related companies for potential investment opportunities [2] Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The performance of various electronic sectors year-to-date includes: Semiconductors (+3.02%), Other Electronics II (+9.45%), Components (+39.84%), Optical Electronics (-1.57%), Consumer Electronics (+1.86%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+11.61%) [2][8] - This week, the performance was: Semiconductors (+0.42%), Other Electronics II (+1.75%), Components (+9.36%), Optical Electronics (+0.44%), Consumer Electronics (+3.29%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+1.37%) [2][8] Key Stock Movements - Notable stock movements include: Apple (+0.01%), Tesla (+5.15%), NVIDIA (+4.54%), and Micron Technology (-8.14%) [2][9] AI Developments - OpenAI's CEO announced that the upcoming GPT-5 model is expected to achieve gold medal-level performance in the International Mathematical Olympiad [2] - The Kimi K2 model from the domestic sector has topped the global open-source model rankings, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [2] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for overseas AI investments include: Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology [2] - Recommended domestic AI companies include: Chipone Technology, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and Shenzhen South Circuit [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [4] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for high-speed optical modules and AI chip infrastructure, particularly in the context of companies like Nvidia and TSMC reporting strong earnings [1][3][17] - The performance of key companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng indicates a robust outlook for the optical module sector, with substantial year-on-year profit growth expected [1][30][36] Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Zhongji Xuchuang forecasts a net profit of 3.6 to 4.4 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57% due to rising demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules [1] - Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 3.7 to 4.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47%, driven by changes in demand structure and increased production capacity [1][31] - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of 933.8 billion NTD, a 38.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 61% [1][17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI computing infrastructure across various segments, particularly optical devices and modules, as well as domestic computing companies benefiting from increased investment in 2025 [3][59] - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [3][59] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang's H1 2025 net profit is projected to be between 3.6 billion and 4.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 52.64% to 86.57% [36] - Xinyi Sheng's H1 2025 net profit is expected to be between 3.7 billion and 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [31] - Guangku Technology anticipates a net profit of 48.56 to 54.63 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [42]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development such as servers and IDC, as well as sectors benefiting from overseas AI development like servers and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - Nvidia's H20 sales resumption in China has positively impacted the data center sector, leading to a surge in related stocks, indicating improved market sentiment regarding computing power supply [1][2]. - ASML and TSMC reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 earnings, driven by strong AI demand, with ASML's net sales reaching €7.7 billion, up 23.2% year-on-year, and TSMC's revenue at NT$933.8 billion, up 38.6% year-on-year [1][59]. - The release of new AI models is accelerating technological iterations, with increased demand for inference and agent computing power [1]. - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng have reported Q2 2025 earnings that exceeded market expectations, reflecting positive trends in the downstream industry [1][9]. Summary by Sections Server Sector - The server index increased by 4.59% this week and 3.96% this month, driven by accelerated AI computing investments from North American cloud providers like Google and Meta, which plan to invest $25 billion and hundreds of billions respectively in AI infrastructure [2][6]. - TSMC's optimistic forecast for 2025, expecting a 30% year-on-year sales growth, further validates strong downstream AI demand [6][59]. Optical Module Sector - The optical module index rose by 9.17% this week and 10.33% this month, with North American cloud providers driving demand for 800G optical modules [9]. - Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are key suppliers in this sector, with projected net profits showing significant year-on-year growth [9]. IDC Sector - The IDC index increased by 5.28% this week and 4.31% this month, with the resumption of H20 supply alleviating previous chip shortages, indicating a potential turning point for the AIDC industry [12]. - The report anticipates continued growth in capital expenditures from domestic internet giants in the second half of 2025, supporting the domestic computing power chain [12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Semiconductor Packaging Industry**: Focus on TSMC's CoWoS technology and related companies - **RISC-V Architecture**: Development and adoption in high-performance computing - **Micro-Short Drama Industry**: Growth and government support in Shenzhen - **Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Technology**: Medical applications and market potential - **AI in Healthcare**: Investment trends and technological advancements - **Tourism and Cruise Industry**: Summer tourism trends and company initiatives - **Robotics and AI**: Development in military and healthcare applications Core Insights and Arguments Semiconductor Packaging - TSMC is advancing its CoWoS technology, with expected Q3 sales between $31.8 billion and $33.1 billion, exceeding market estimates [2][3] - The global market for CoWoS technology is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2026, with China leading growth at 71% [2] RISC-V Architecture - The fifth RISC-V China Summit highlighted the acceleration of high-performance computing products [4] - Companies like Aojie Technology and Allwinner Technology are leading in RISC-V CPU subsystem development [5] Micro-Short Drama - Shenzhen's government has introduced measures to support the micro-short drama industry, with a market size expected to reach 68.6 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 36% [6][7] Brain-Computer Interface - The global BCI medical application market is projected to reach $40 billion by 2030, with significant growth in central nervous system disease treatments [8] - Companies like Yanshan Technology and Sanbo Brain Science are pioneering BCI applications [9] AI in Healthcare - The global AI healthcare investment landscape is heating up, with significant advancements in molecular modeling technology [11] - The company is collaborating with Tencent AI Lab to enhance drug discovery processes [11] Tourism and Cruise - The domestic summer tourism consumption is expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan, with the company launching themed cruise lines [13] Robotics and AI - The military robotics sector is accelerating, with new developments in multifunctional robots for reconnaissance and inspection [16] - Companies are also focusing on healthcare robotics, with applications in rehabilitation and elderly care [15] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The CoWoS technology's capacity is directly linked to HBM production, indicating a critical supply chain relationship [2] - The RISC-V architecture's integration into data centers could disrupt traditional CPU markets [4] - The micro-short drama market's growth is driven by free content, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences [6] - The BCI technology's commercialization is supported by new pricing regulations in Hubei province [8] - The AI healthcare sector is seeing a convergence of technology and traditional pharmaceutical practices, enhancing drug development efficiency [11] - The cruise tourism initiative is part of a broader strategy to diversify offerings in response to changing consumer demands [13] - The military robotics market is expected to see increased government investment and interest, particularly in AI applications [16]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant recovery, with many companies reporting strong earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by increased demand in artificial intelligence applications and other sectors [1][4][6]. Group 1: TSMC Performance - TSMC reported a net profit of nearly NT$398.3 billion for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of nearly 61%, marking a historical high for quarterly net profit [2]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 reached NT$933.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.26% [2]. - TSMC's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 58.62%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but exceeding market expectations [2]. Group 2: Global Semiconductor Sales - In May 2025, global semiconductor sales reached approximately $58.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.03%, marking a historical high for monthly sales [4]. - The year-on-year growth rate for global semiconductor sales has remained above 20% since April 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [4]. Group 3: A-Share Semiconductor Companies - Over 80% of semiconductor companies listed in the A-share market have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with a median net profit increase of over 80% [6][9]. - Among the companies, 13 reported a median net profit increase of over 100%, with notable performers including Silan Microelectronics, which saw a median increase of over 1100% [9][11]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following TSMC's earnings report, its stock price increased by 1.2% from July 17 to 18, reaching a historical high, with a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion as of July 18 [3]. - The average stock price increase for semiconductor companies that disclosed earnings forecasts was nearly 15%, significantly outperforming those that did not disclose [12]. Group 5: Individual Company Highlights - Silan Microelectronics reported a median net profit increase of 1123.11% for the first half of 2025, attributed to its integrated strategy and expansion into high-demand markets [9][11]. - TaiLing Microelectronics projected a median net profit increase of 267%, driven by growth in customer demand and new product launches [10][11]. - WenTai Technology's median net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 4.88 billion yuan, with a median increase of 247.5%, benefiting from market recovery and cost reduction strategies [10][11].

【导读】 Circle突发大跳水； 美联储古尔斯比称，关税进一步扰乱通胀前景并推迟了美国可能的降息举措 中国基金报记者 张舟 美东时间 7 月 18 日周五，美国三大股指涨跌不一，三大股指本周走势涨跌互现。特朗普签署《 GENIUS 法案》，为稳定币设立联邦监 管框架，承诺绝不允许在美国创建央行数字货币。 黄金、银、原油本周下跌。现货黄金报 3354.75 美元 / 盎司，本周跌 0.12% ；现货白银报 38.1975 美元 / 盎司，本周跌 0.51% ； 国际油价小幅收跌， WTI 本周跌 1.68% 。 有报道称，特朗普将很快宣布重大贸易协议。美联储古尔斯比称，关税进一步扰乱通胀前景并推迟了美国可能的降息举措。 三大股指本周涨跌互现 特朗普签署 GENIUS 法案 截至收盘，道指跌 0.32% ，报 44342.19 点；标普 500 指数跌 0.01% ，报 6296.79 点；纳指涨 0.05% ，报 20895.65 点。本 周，道指跌 0.07% ，标普 500 指数涨 0.59% ，纳指涨 1.51% 。 当地时间 7 月 18 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have experienced a significant surge, with foreign investment institutions increasingly optimistic about the outlook for these assets due to stable economic performance and improving corporate earnings [2][10][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 2% at one point, while the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF surged over 6%, and the two-times leveraged China Internet Stocks ETF increased by over 5% [4]. - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw substantial gains, with Luida Technology soaring over 33% and Xinyang rising over 17% [4]. - KraneShares China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB) recorded a nearly 7% increase this week, while iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) rose over 4%, marking the largest weekly gains since early March [5]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - A survey by Invesco revealed that international investment institutions are showing renewed interest in the Chinese market, with a total asset management of approximately $27 trillion [10]. - HSBC's chief economist for Greater China noted that international investors, especially from Europe and the U.S., are increasingly interested in Chinese assets due to ongoing capital market reforms and technological innovation [11]. - BlackRock's chief equity investment officer expressed optimism about the macro environment and corporate earnings, anticipating a positive performance for Chinese A-shares in the second half of the year [12]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Futu Holdings has seen strong customer growth, with a client base of 2.7 million and assets under management exceeding $100 billion, growing at an annual rate of 20%-25% [7][6]. - Barclays highlighted Futu's potential for accelerated growth in the coming years, driven by the recovery of the Asian capital markets [6]. - Revenue projections for Futu indicate a growth of 48% to HKD 18.9 billion by 2025, with an expected EPS of $60.94 for the same year [8].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's CFO, Huang Ren-Chao, emphasizes a cautious approach to capital expenditures amid current market conditions [1] Group 1: Company Insights - TSMC is prioritizing careful management of capital spending to navigate uncertainties in the semiconductor industry [1] - The company is likely to adjust its investment strategies based on market demand and economic indicators [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is facing challenges that necessitate a more conservative financial strategy from leading companies like TSMC [1] - Market fluctuations and demand variability are influencing capital allocation decisions across the sector [1]