智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，食品行业规范化加速，头部企业有望受益。20 年以来预制 菜行业快速发展，大量资本、产能等涌入，24 年行业新规落地打响规范化第一枪，此次进一步发布预 制菜国家标准，有助于优质头部企业发展，另一方面餐饮供应链更高标准下，头部半成品企业将更加受 益，低端小作坊等或逐步出清。基于此，头部上市速冻食品企业及定制餐调企业中长期来看均有望受 益。 华创证券主要观点如下： 事件 2 月6 日，国家卫健委发布《食品安全国家标准预制菜》（征求意见稿），正式面向社会公开征求意 见。同日，国务院食安办、市场监管总局、商务部起草了《推广餐饮环节自主明示的公告（公开征求意 见稿）》，向社会公开征求意见。 全链条规范预制菜行业，奠定产业长期健康发展基础 首次发布预制菜国标，引领行业步入高质量发展 此次标准明确界定预制菜为经工业化预加工、需加热后食用的预包装菜肴，并特意将主食类食品、净菜 类、即食食品以及中央厨房自行配送的菜肴排除在外。新规明确禁止添加防腐剂，并强调"非必要不添 加"的原则，严格限制食品添加剂的使用。同时，为回应消费者对新鲜度的关切，规定预制菜保质期应 尽量缩短，最长不得超过12 个 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by over 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The release of the national standard for prepared dishes marks the beginning of a new phase of standardization in the industry, promoting high-quality development [7]. - The new regulations define prepared dishes as pre-packaged meals that require heating before consumption, excluding staple foods and ready-to-eat items, thereby establishing a clear framework for industry compliance [7]. - The standards prohibit the addition of preservatives and emphasize the principle of "no unnecessary additives," while also shortening the maximum shelf life to 12 months to address consumer concerns about freshness [7]. - The announcement encourages transparency in the food supply chain, allowing consumers to make informed choices based on clear labeling of food preparation methods [7]. - The trend towards industrialization in the food supply chain is expected to continue, with companies adopting centralized kitchens and efficient sourcing methods to meet consumer demands for safety and transparency [7]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the frozen food sector and customized meal preparation are likely to benefit from these regulatory changes, while smaller, lower-quality producers may be phased out [7]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 46,315.24 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month, six months, and twelve months is 2.9%, 2.6%, and 5.0%, respectively, while the relative performance shows a decline of 12.4% over six months and 16.2% over twelve months compared to the benchmark [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in consumer demand for high-quality food products during the Chinese New Year shopping season, indicating a shift towards premium offerings in the market [1][3][14] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The sales of Sichuan Yaba Gan have surged over 12 times year-on-year, becoming a top fruit choice, while South American imported beef shank sales have increased by 580%, reflecting a strong demand for high-quality protein [1][5] - The popularity of traditional foods continues, with Bayzi Dumplings seeing nearly a 6-fold increase in sales, and various types of dumplings and tangyuan gaining traction due to their cultural significance [3][14] - The demand for health-oriented products is rising, with sales of sea cucumbers increasing by 18% and antibiotic-free fresh eggs growing by 56%, indicating a shift towards healthier options among consumers [14][16] Group 2: Regional Integration - The sales of Chagan Lake fish have been robust, with 69% of buyers being married individuals, showcasing its role in family meals and gift-giving [9][11] - The integration of regional flavors is evident, with Guangdong specialties like the Guangzhou restaurant's meat buns and various seafood products seeing significant sales increases, demonstrating the effectiveness of supply chain capabilities [12][9] - The trend of cross-regional food offerings is highlighted, with consumers in southern regions enjoying northeastern specialties, facilitated by efficient logistics and supply chain management [11][12] Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics - JD Fresh's supply chain has enabled the rapid delivery of fresh products, such as Chagan Lake fish, to consumers across the country, ensuring quality and freshness [11][8] - The company has implemented a traceability system for products, enhancing consumer trust and satisfaction [11] - The logistics network supports temperature-controlled delivery, ensuring that seafood and other perishable items reach consumers in optimal condition [8][12] Group 4: Product Offerings - The article notes a variety of new product offerings, including convenient meal options like the Tianhai Cang 10 Abalone dish, which saw a 256% increase in sales, catering to the demand for easy-to-prepare meals [16] - The introduction of festive gift boxes and premium food items reflects a growing consumer preference for convenience and quality during the holiday season [16][14] - The emphasis on "true freshness and affordability" in product offerings aligns with consumer expectations for value during the festive shopping period [16][1]

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2016-2025年食品制造业企业数统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市公司：黑芝麻（000716），双汇发展（000895），千味央厨（001215），青岛食品（001219），三 全食品（002216），得利斯（002330），金字火腿（002515），洽洽食品（002557），克明食品 （002661），煌上煌（002695），海欣食品（002702），麦趣尔（002719），龙大美食（002726），桂 发祥（002820） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国食品饮料制造行业发展动态及投资前景评估报告》 2025年1-12月，食品制造业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起，规模 以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为11070个， 和上年同期相比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and the evolving consumer behavior in China [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Shifts and Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer demand is shifting towards different sectors [4]. - The article identifies eight key industries that are capitalizing on changing consumer preferences, highlighting that demand migration presents significant business opportunities [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a dramatic revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][8]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, spending on pets is rising. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are benefiting from this trend, with various pet brands seeing continuous sales growth [12][13][14][15][16]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating that aging populations can create substantial economic opportunities rather than being a burden [17][18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that consumers prioritize personal care even in economic downturns [23][24][25][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, like Snow Peak in Japan, are thriving as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [29][30][31]. - **Convenience Economy**: The rise of frozen foods and smart home appliances reflects a shift towards convenience, with brands like Anjijia and Kewotai seeing steady growth [39][40][42]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend of reduced cooking time among younger generations has led to increased demand for time-saving products, suggesting that time-saving solutions may hold more commercial value than cost-saving ones in a low-desire economy [39][42]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article argues against the notion that the current market is in a "cold winter," suggesting that the true winners in a low-desire era are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies in the prepared food industry, specifically for Anjuke Food (2648 HK, 603345 CH) and Sanquan Food (002216 CH) [5][11]. Core Insights - The introduction of national standards for prepared foods is expected to enhance industry order and standardization, benefiting leading companies due to their comprehensive advantages in R&D, production, cold chain logistics, and quality control [6][7]. - The prepared food industry is transitioning from a chaotic phase to a more regulated one, with the new standards raising entry barriers and improving consumer confidence in product quality [9][10]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for inventory ahead of the Spring Festival, with a recovery in channel confidence, and a long-term trend towards food industrialization [7][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The prepared food industry is undergoing a process of standardization, with the new national standards defining the scope and management of prepared foods, emphasizing the control of food contaminants and additives [6][9]. - The standards stipulate that the maximum shelf life of prepared foods should not exceed 12 months, which aligns with the health-conscious consumption trend [10]. Company Recommendations - Anjuke Food (2648 HK) is highlighted as a leader in the frozen hot pot ingredient sector, with a target price of 99.38 HKD, benefiting from improved fundamentals and a rational competitive landscape [12]. - Anjuke Food (603345 CH) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 113.04 CNY, as the company is expected to see profit recovery and growth driven by product innovation and structural adjustments [12]. - Sanquan Food (002216 CH) is recommended with a target price of 13.44 CNY, as the company is focusing on product innovation and channel diversification to improve operational quality [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are spending more on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin showing potential for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free beverages and functional drinks. Brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun are gaining traction in this sector [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, is on the rise. Companies like Jinbo Biological are seeing significant market value growth [23][25]. - **Outdoor and Leisure Products**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands like Kailas and Camel experiencing rapid sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands like Labubu and Rio are tapping into the emotional needs of consumers, providing products that offer comfort and joy, even in a tight economic climate [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations spend less time cooking. Companies like Anjijia and Kewot are benefiting from this trend [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. The key to success lies in recognizing and seizing these opportunities [39].

Group 1 - The core event is the planned IPO of the snack brand "Ming Ming Hen Mang" on January 28, 2026, which will become the first stock of its kind in the Hong Kong market, with a global offering of 14.1 million shares and expected net fundraising of over HKD 3 billion, leading to a market capitalization of approximately HKD 50 billion [1][8] - The market response has been enthusiastic, with a subscription rate exceeding 1500 times during the offering phase, and major cornerstone investors including Tencent, Temasek, and BlackRock collectively subscribing for HKD 1.5 billion [1][8] - This IPO marks a significant milestone in the snack retail industry, indicating a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on quality improvement and operational efficiency [1][4] Group 2 - The snack retail industry has experienced rapid growth, with the number of traditional snack retail stores increasing from about 8,000 in 2022 to over 45,000 by mid-2025, indicating a potential long-term opening space of approximately 74,000 stores nationwide, with about 20,000 additional stores possible [2][9] - As the market matures, companies are transitioning from merely increasing store numbers to enhancing operational efficiency and profitability, entering a phase of "high-quality growth" [2][4] - Leading companies like "Ming Ming Hen Mang" have improved their adjusted net profit margins from 2.3% in 2023 to 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced subsidies to franchisees and ongoing optimization of product categories [2][12] Group 3 - Developing proprietary products is becoming a key strategy for companies to enhance gross margins and brand differentiation, with over 30% of SKUs at "Ming Ming Hen Mang" being custom products developed in collaboration with suppliers [3][23] - Both "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and Wanchen Group have launched their own brand product lines, although the current sales proportion of these brands remains in the single digits, indicating significant room for growth compared to leading retailers in domestic and international markets [3][23] - Post-IPO, companies plan to allocate part of the raised funds towards product development and supply chain enhancement to further build their proprietary product systems [3][25] Group 4 - The structural changes in the industry are positively impacting upstream supply chain companies, as snack retail stores expand their offerings to include dairy, baked goods, and frozen foods, creating new growth opportunities for related suppliers [3][27] - The shift towards proprietary product development among downstream companies is leading to a more collaborative relationship with suppliers, moving from traditional trade procurement to joint product development and customization [3][27] - Manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities and the ability to respond flexibly to channel customization demands are expected to gain more orders and market share as the industry evolves [3][27]

Group 1 - Yum China provided further explanation for the price increase at KFC, stating it is a mild adjustment affecting only delivery menu prices, with no changes to dine-in prices [1] - The average price adjustment for KFC's delivery products was 0.8 yuan, while dine-in prices remained unchanged [2] - In 2025, Yum China's delivery sales are expected to grow by 25%, accounting for 48% of restaurant revenue, up from 39% the previous year [2] Group 2 - KFC's system sales are projected to increase by 5% in 2025, with same-store sales growing by 1% and operating profit rising by 8% to 1.3 billion USD [3] - As of the end of 2025, KFC plans to have a total of 12,997 stores, with 1,349 new stores added during the year [3] - Pizza Hut's system sales are expected to grow by 4% in 2025, with same-store sales also increasing by 1% and operating profit rising by 19% to 183 million USD [4] Group 3 - Yum China's total revenue is projected to grow by 4% to 11.8 billion USD in 2025, with operating profit increasing by 11% to 1.3 billion USD [3] - The CFO mentioned that the current subsidy competition in the delivery platform is beneficial for larger businesses, allowing them to collaborate with multiple platforms [3]

Market Strategy - The market continues to show a shrinking rebound trend, with a strong performance in dividend styles [5][7] - The overall A-share market saw a 0.45% increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to 4102.20 points, while the STAR 50 Index fell by 1.20% [7][8] - The coal, construction materials, and real estate sectors performed well, while the computer, communication, and media sectors lagged behind [8] Company Updates - Qixiang Tengda (002408.SZ) has successfully launched its 8000 tons/year high-performance catalytic new materials project, enhancing its self-supply capability in high-end catalytic materials [30] - Jinshiyuan (603369.SH) anticipates short-term pressure with a focus on stabilizing prices and market share, while optimizing expense efficiency [32] - Sanquan Foods (002216.SZ) reported significant improvement in operations with rapid revenue growth from new products and reduced losses in direct sales channels [34] - Babi Foods (605338.SH) achieved a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, with a non-net profit growth of 16.49% [36] Industry Dynamics - The Central Document No. 1 for 2026 emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, aiming to enhance grain production and quality [25][26] - The CR450 high-speed train has completed 300,000 kilometers of testing and is expected to undergo further operational assessments in 2026 [27][28]