大摩闭门会：全球 AI 与中国两会的新看点 260302 摘要 霍尔木兹海峡运营中断导致全球日均石油供给可能减少 200 万—300 万 桶，油价可能对应在 80 美元/桶左右，当前油价已反映约 7 美元的风险 溢价，但整体风险被定义为"可控担忧"，而非恐慌性定价。 油价每上涨 10 美元/桶，可能推升全球 CPI 约 0.3—0.7 个百分点，并拖 累全球 GDP 约 0.1—0.2 个百分点。亚洲内部呈现显著结构性分化，印 尼、马来西亚、泰国通胀压力更大，中国、日本、中国香港影响较小。 不认为全球会陷入滞胀困境，缓冲机制包括欧佩克增产能力、中国原油 库存以及美联储全年维持降息方向。美联储短期降息概率会下调，但不 改变"全年大概率仍将降息"的方向性判断。 美国试图将 AI 打造为二战后美元体系之外新的全球权力锚点，并通过 AI 重塑地缘同盟格局，核心战略是"真实的 AI 主权"，但面临来自发展中 国家和部分欧洲国家在开放性、数据主权和对美国专有模型依赖风险上 的分歧。 中国电力基础设施与算力竞争相关的配套设施成本相对更低，但 token 应用天然与数据安全捆绑，不宜简单推导为"便宜即好用"，需关注全 球各国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a strong bullish stance on the Chinese metals market, particularly in gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, driven by tighter supply and structural demand from electrification and AI trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The bank expects a significant supply deficit in the copper and aluminum markets, predicting a global copper supply gap of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons by 2026/27 [2] - The demand for copper in China is projected to grow by about 2.5% in 2026, with potential government stockpiling acting as a strong catalyst [2] - The aluminum market in China is expected to see prices anchored at RMB 23,000 per ton by 2026, with industry profits likely to remain in the historical high range of RMB 6,000 to 7,000 per ton [2] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Bank of America identifies China Aluminum (601600) and China Hongqiao (01378) as top picks in the aluminum sector, raising their 2026 earnings forecasts for both companies [3] - The estimated valuation for China Aluminum is approximately 10x 2026E P/E with a dividend yield of about 5%, while China Hongqiao is estimated at around 9x 2026E P/E with a dividend yield of approximately 7% [3] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased to HKD 48 from a previous target of HKD 45, supported by strong aluminum price expectations and the company's vertical integration model [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a strong bullish stance on the metals market in China, particularly for gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, driven by tighter supply and structural demand from electrification and AI trends [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a supply gap of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons by 2026/27, with demand driven by electrification, including power grids, electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems (ESS), and AI infrastructure [2] - The aluminum sector in China is projected to have a price target of RMB 23,000 per ton by 2026, with industry profits expected to remain in the historical high range of RMB 6,000 to 7,000 per ton [2] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Bank of America identifies China Aluminum (Chinalco) and China Hongqiao as top picks in the aluminum sector, raising their 2026 earnings expectations and providing valuation anchors of approximately 10x and 9x 2026E P/E, respectively [3] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased to HKD 48 from a previous target of HKD 45, supported by strong aluminum price expectations and the company's vertical integration model, which positions it in the lowest cost quartile globally [3]

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月2日，有色ETF银华（159871）开盘涨2.38%，报1.247元。有色ETF银华（159871）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨1.17%，赣 锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，中矿资源跌0.02%。 有色ETF银华（159871）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属指数收益率，管理人为银华基金管理股份有限公 司，基金经理为谭跃峰，成立（2021-03-10）以来回报为142.96%，近一个月回报为0.88%。 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 3月2日，有色金属ETF基金（516650）开盘涨3.57%，报2.435元。有色金属ETF基金（516650）重仓股 方面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，天齐锂业跌 1.08%。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为华夏基 金管理有限公司，基金经理为单宽之，成立（2021-06-09）以来回报为135.00%，近一个月回报为 0.50%。 ...

资讯日报：美以联手空袭伊朗，国际油价应声飙涨 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 日本主要指数一年表现 JING YI, CFA, CPA SFC CE No.: BRQ314 +852 2899 6747 jessiejing@guosen.com.cn 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 富时新加坡海峡指数一年表现 数据日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 究部整理 美股市场表现 2026 年 3 月 2 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常跌 | 周常失 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 湖铁 | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 26.631 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 3.90 | | 恒生科技 | 5.138 | 0.56 | (1.41) | (6.86) | | 恒生国企 | 8.859 | 0.51 | (1.12) | (0.61) | | 上证指 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 美伊冲突升级，持续看好贵金属+战略小金属 有色金属行业周报（2026.2.15-2026.3.1） 本周核心关注三：缅北武装冲突再起，引发市场锡矿供应担忧 据 SMM，2026 年 2 月中下旬以来，缅甸掸邦北部局势再度紧张，引发市场 对缅甸锡矿供应链的担忧。此次冲突区域为贵概（Kutkai）地区。由于曼相 矿区深处佤邦腹地，地理位置偏东，与贵概相距较远，暂未受到贵概战火的 直接波及，锡矿跨境发运也暂未面临实质性阻断风险。不过鉴于缅北整体地 缘政治形势复杂多变，市场仍需持续关注边境地区可能引发的连锁反应。 本周核心关注四：美国最高法院裁决判定依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收 的关税违法，但特朗普警告将采取更高关税措施 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。不过，美最高法院的 这项裁决仅限制总统通过《国际紧急经济权力法》实施关税，并未完全剥夺 其征收关税的权力。裁决公布后，特朗普 20 日转而依据《1974 年贸易法》 第 122 条，宣布加征"全球进口关税"，税率 10%，为期 150 天，以取代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with macroeconomic factors being the key drivers of metal price trends, including monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions [1][12]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases. As of the end of January, China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking 15 consecutive months of reserve expansion [2][13]. - Specific price movements include SHFE gold rising by 3.29% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, COMEX gold increasing by 4.24% to 5,296.40 USD per ounce, and London gold rising by 3.27% to 5,278.26 USD per ounce. Silver prices also saw significant increases, with SHFE silver up 16.34% to 23,019 CNY per kilogram [2][13]. - Recommended stocks in the precious metals sector include Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [3][14]. Base Metals - The copper sector is characterized by a strong supply-demand dynamic, with prices supported by strategic stockpiling and rigid supply. Recent data shows SHFE copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton, while LME copper rose by 2.93% to 13,343.5 USD per ton [4][15]. - In contrast, the aluminum sector faces a "macro positive, inventory pressure" scenario, with SHFE aluminum prices rising by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton, but facing seasonal supply pressures and increasing inventories [5][16]. - Recommended stocks for copper include Jincheng Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum, while for aluminum, recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][5][15][16]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is experiencing strong demand and declining inventories, with lithium carbonate continuing to deplete. Recommended stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7][19]. - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supplies, with companies extending their operations into downstream electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt [7][19]. Rare Earth and Strategic Metals - The rare earth sector has seen price increases post-holiday, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide rising significantly. The report highlights the investment value of rare earths as strategic resources [8][20]. - The tungsten sector is benefiting from supply constraints and strategic pricing models, with recommended stocks including Xiamen Tungsten [8][20]. - The uranium sector has seen long-term price increases due to supply rigidity and nuclear power development, with recommended stocks including China Uranium [9][21].

S 上海现代服务业联合会 Shanghai Services Federation 荣续智库 有色金属行业ESG白皮书 摘要 在全球可持续发展浪潮下，有色金属行业既承载着经济发展的重要使命，也面临着ESG的多重挑战。本白皮书聚焦有色金属行业 深入剖析其ESG发展脉络，涵盖行业概览、细分领域、ESG实践、核心议题及优秀案例等内容，旨在为行业参与者、投资者等提供 全面且具价值的ESG视角，助力有色金属行业在绿色转型与高质量发展之路上稳步前行。 PREFACE ANALVST 前言 研究员 有色金属行业作为国民经济的重要基础性产业，广泛应用于电力、 程彦淇 高级注册ESG分析师：25RZQLKC002447A 交通、建筑等诸多领域，其发展与国家经济建设和人民生活改善息 息相关。然而，有色金属行业在开采、治炼、加工等环节，不可避 免地涉及资源消耗、环境污染以及社会利益相关方关系等问题， 刘树 CFAESG证书：102606785 ESG表现愈发受到政府、投资者、社会公众等多方关注。 在此背景下，我们编写本《有色金属行业ESG白皮书》，期望通过 严涛 高级注册ESG分析师：24RZQLKC003147A 系统梳理有色金 ...

证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 02 日 上期有色金属指数解析：期货指数 与股票指数有何差异？ 相关研究 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 股 票 基 金 - ⚫ 有色金属景气回升，政策驱动行业稳增长。2025/8/28，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有 色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，系列举措将有效改善行业供需结构、 提升产业韧性，为有色金属行业景气度回升注入强劲动力。 ⚫ 工业有色金属的供需维持紧平衡，价格易涨难跌。结合库存数据与行业周期来看，当前 LME 铜、铝、锡的全球库存整体仍处于低位，机器人、新能源汽车以及新能源装机等新 兴产业的快速发展，正在同步推升铜、铝等工业有色金属的需求；而供给端方面，近几年 全球铜矿开采量增速出现放缓，全球铝的产能也已经达到高位，新增产能受限，因此，未 来铜、铝等工业有色 ...