晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2026 年 01 月 26 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 4136.16 | 0.33 | | 深证成指 | 14439.66 | 0.79 | | 创业板指 | 3349.50 | 0.63 | | 科创 50 | 1553.71 | 0.78 | | 北证 50 | 1588.66 | 3.82 | | 沪深 300 | 4702.50 | -0.45 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【债券研究】债券市场综述 二、重要财经资讯 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry in A-share listed companies has seen active mergers and acquisitions since the beginning of the year, with companies like Shenghong Technology, Jingfeng Mingyuan, and Yingfang Microelectronics announcing related plans and progress [1][2] - Analysts predict that the A-share semiconductor M&A market will remain active until 2026, driven by policy guidance and market forces, enabling companies to achieve technological complementarity and scale expansion through acquisitions [1] - Shenghong Technology announced plans to acquire 100% of SunPower Malaysia Manufacturing Sdn.Bhd. for up to $51 million, aiming to enhance its production capacity in Southeast Asia and meet overseas delivery demands [1] Group 2 - Jingfeng Mingyuan is progressing with its acquisition of 100% of Sichuan Yichong Technology for a transaction price of 3.283 billion yuan, which will enhance its market position and technological capabilities in high-performance analog chips [2] - Yingfang Microelectronics plans to acquire 100% of Shanghai Xiaokeli and Fujide China, both of which are deeply involved in the semiconductor supply chain, to expand its market share and product structure in electronic component distribution [2] - Traditional industry companies like Xiamen Yanjing New Materials are also entering the semiconductor field, with plans to acquire 98.54% of Ningbo Yongqiang Technology to expand into high-end electronic interconnection materials for integrated circuits [3] Group 3 - The competition in the semiconductor industry has shifted from single-point technology to ecosystem integration, making mergers and acquisitions a new norm that reshapes the competitive landscape [3] - Active mergers and acquisitions are expected to bring multiple positive impacts to the semiconductor industry, although challenges in technology transfer efficiency and team culture integration remain [3]

长安基金王浩聿：以产业周期视角迎接AI投资浪潮 ◎记者 赵明超 历经苹果产业链崛起、5G爆发及新能源浪潮等多轮产业周期，长安宏观策略混合基金经理王浩聿直 言，"水大才能鱼多"。他沉淀出一套"锚定趋势、验证业绩、敬畏估值"的核心框架。当人工智能成为席 卷全球的科技浪潮时，王浩聿表示这是"20年一遇的大机会"，需要沉下心做好研究与跟踪，才能把握好 这次投资机会。 聚焦产业发展趋势 在担任基金经理前，王浩聿在科技行业深耕多年，覆盖电子、传媒、通信、计算机、机器人等领域，也 逐渐形成了一套完整的投资框架，即从产业发展趋势入手，聚焦行业竞争格局，精选优质公司，通过对 订单和业绩的持续跟踪，结合市场走势和估值水平，对仓位进行灵活调整。 "任何产业趋势背后都有核心驱动力。以苹果产业链为例，很多人在研究苹果产业链时，可能会聚焦供 应链公司的订单业绩情况，但就本质而言，这些其实是产业趋势发展的结果。真正关键的是研究苹果公 司自身的发展逻辑，比如它如何规划产品线、未来手机的创新方向在哪里、TWS耳机为何能实现爆发 式增长、AI手机应该如何设计等，这才是产业链研究的核心。"王浩聿表示。 在锚定方向后，王浩聿会从竞争格局、订单及业绩 ...

【超20家A股上市公司本周披露并购重组最新公告 湖南黄金拟购买黄金天岳、中南冶炼100%股权股票 明日复牌】智通财经1月25日电，据智通财经不完全统计，截至发稿，本周（1月19日-1月25日）包括湖 南黄金、永杰新材、新大正、胜宏科技、龙韵股份、晶升股份、伟星新材、明阳智能、韩建河山、爱博 医疗、奕帆传动、瑞达期货、康欣新材、铂科新材、凯龙高科、多瑞医药、中国中免、美芯晟、荣盛发 展、明德生物、新凤鸣、盈方微在内的22家A股上市公司披露并购重组进展最新公告。其中湖南黄金公 告，拟购买黄金天岳、中南冶炼100%股权，其主要从事部分金矿的采选及销售等，本次交易预计构成 重大资产重组，股票明日复牌。 转自：智通财经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on CPU and memory sectors [6]. Core Insights - The emergence of Agentic AI is creating structural shortages in the CPU market, leading to price increases for server CPUs. The demand for AI servers is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual increase of 28.3% in 2026 [1][12]. - The overall server shipment is anticipated to rise by 12.8% in 2026, driven by the need for both AI and general-purpose servers [12]. - Intel and AMD have sold out their server CPU capacities for 2026 and plan to raise prices by 10%-20% depending on the model, which will impact the entire supply chain [21]. - The memory market, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, is expected to see substantial growth, with DRAM revenue projected to reach $404.3 billion in 2026, a 144% increase year-on-year [40][41]. Summary by Sections AI Agent Impact on CPU Demand - The demand for CPUs is being driven by AI inference, leading to a replacement cycle for general-purpose servers. Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing their capital expenditures significantly [11]. - The introduction of DeepSeek's Engram architecture highlights the growing importance of CPUs, as it allows for efficient data storage and retrieval without relying solely on expensive GPU memory [15][19]. - Agentic AI's influence on CPUs is multiplicative, making them a critical performance bottleneck in AI systems [20]. Memory Market Growth - The memory market is expected to reach $5.516 trillion in 2026, with NAND Flash revenue projected to double to $1.473 trillion [40][41]. - The demand for DRAM is expected to grow significantly due to high data access needs, with a projected revenue of $1.657 trillion in 2025, increasing to $4.043 trillion in 2026 [40]. - The ongoing AI wave is driving the need for high-performance memory solutions, which are essential for supporting large-scale AI models and applications [42]. Intel's Performance and Outlook - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue was $13.7 billion, a 4% decline year-on-year, primarily due to supply constraints [22][28]. - The company is focusing on improving its production capacity and yield rates, with expectations of a gradual increase in supply starting in Q2 2026 [37]. - Intel's Data Center and AI (DCAI) business is expected to have a strong year, driven by the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [37].

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for AI computing infrastructure and the upgrade of consumer electronics, leading to positive earnings forecasts for related listed companies, such as昊志机电 and 胜宏科技 [1][3][5] Company Performance - 昊志机电 expects a net profit of 128 million to 165 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.4% to 99.03%, with a non-net profit forecast of 77 million to 112 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 79.77% to 163.19% [1][3] - 胜宏科技 anticipates a net profit of 4.16 billion to 4.56 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 260.35% to 295% [3][5] Market Drivers - The growth in the PCB industry is attributed to the rapid increase in demand for AI computing infrastructure and the continuous upgrade of consumer electronics, which has significantly boosted sales of specialized processing equipment [3][5] - The sales revenue of PCB spindle products from 昊志机电 reached 169 million yuan, marking an increase of 83.99% [3] Industry Trends - The PCB market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to the explosive growth of AI applications, with increasing demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) and multi-layer boards [7] - Consulting firm Prismark predicts a global PCB market value growth of approximately 5.8% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5.2% expected until 2029 [7] Competitive Landscape - Companies like 金安国纪 and 东威科技 are also forecasting significant profit growth, with 金安国纪 expecting a net profit of 280 million to 360 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 655.53% to 871.40% [6][7] - The industry is witnessing a trend of domestic companies enhancing their production capacity and focusing on high-end products to maintain competitive advantages in the global market [5][6]

Core Insights - The PCB industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for AI computing infrastructure and the upgrade of consumer electronics [1][4][9] Company Performance - Haoshi Electromechanical expects a net profit increase of 54.4% to 99.03% for 2025, with projected profits between 128 million to 165 million yuan [2] - The company attributes its growth to the rising demand in the PCB market driven by AI computing infrastructure and consumer electronics upgrades, alongside accelerated domestic substitution and technological innovation [2][4] - Shenghong Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 260.35% to 295% for 2025, with expected profits between 4.16 billion to 4.56 billion yuan [5] - The company emphasizes its commitment to embracing AI and capitalizing on the historical opportunities presented by the AI computing technology revolution [6][7] Market Trends - The PCB industry is witnessing structural growth due to the rapid increase in demand for AI computing infrastructure and continuous upgrades in consumer electronics [4][9] - The global PCB market is projected to grow by approximately 5.8% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5.2% expected until 2029 [9] - The demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) and high-layer count boards is surging, leading global PCB companies to increase capital investments and expand high-end production capacity [9] Other Companies' Performance - Other PCB companies, such as Jin'an Guoji, Xinqi Microelectronics, and Guanghe Technology, are also expected to report significant profit increases in 2025 [8] - Jin'an Guoji anticipates a net profit of 280 million to 360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 655.53% to 871.40% [8]

Group 1 - Nvidia's founder and CEO Jensen Huang visited China in January 2026, engaging with employees and attending New Year events in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen [1] - The H200 chip, launched in November 2023, features a groundbreaking 141GB HBM3e memory system, significantly enhancing the capability to process large models [2] - The U.S. government approved Nvidia's export of the H200 chip to China under certain conditions, including a 25% sales revenue fee, despite opposition from hawkish lawmakers [2] Group 2 - The production of key components for the H200 chip, such as printed circuit boards (PCBs), has been halted due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. export controls [2] - PCBs are essential for GPU/AI chips, providing physical support, signal transmission, and power distribution [3] - Different GPU models may require specific PCB designs based on their pin configurations and intended applications, leading to multiple differentiated PCB versions for the same GPU [3] Group 3 - Domestic GPU companies, including Moer Technology, Muxi Co., Biran Technology, and Tianshu Zhixin, rely on PCBs as a crucial raw material [4] - Shenghong Technology is identified as a core PCB supplier for domestic GPU manufacturers, holding over 50% of the global graphics card PCB market share [5] - Huadian Co. is another significant supplier, focusing on high-layer boards for UBB motherboards and data center computing boards [5]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Zhonghuan's subsidiary Maxeon has signed an agreement to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary SPMY in Malaysia for a total consideration of up to $51 million, aiming to optimize its capital structure and enhance asset liquidity [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves the sale of 100% equity of SPMY to MFSS, a subsidiary of Shenghong Technology, which specializes in flexible printed circuits and interconnection solutions [1] - The final transaction price will be determined according to the terms outlined in the transaction documents [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale is part of Maxeon's restructuring plan to optimize asset allocation and improve operational efficiency [1] - The transaction is expected to enhance Maxeon's liquidity and risk resilience, while not having a significant impact on the company's overall performance [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4][40]. Core Insights - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue was $13.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. The revenue from the Client Computing Group (CCG) was $8.19 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year, while the Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment saw revenue of $4.74 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year. The Foundry business generated $4.51 billion, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year. Despite a recovery in core DCAI business, Intel's Q1 2026 guidance was significantly below market expectations, forecasting revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion [4][7][8]. - TE Connectivity reported Q1 2026 net sales of $4.7 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in industrial and transportation sectors. Earnings per share rose to $2.53, up 45% year-on-year, with adjusted EPS at $2.72, a 33% increase. The company expects Q2 2026 sales of approximately $4.7 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase [4][7][8]. - Resonac, a major semiconductor materials manufacturer, announced a 30% price increase for all series of copper-clad laminates and adhesive films starting March 1, 2026, due to tight supply and rising costs of raw materials [4][8]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with a projected 10,000-fold increase in total computing power by 2035. Key investment targets include companies across the semiconductor supply chain, such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [4][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Intel's Q4 2025 revenue was $13.7 billion, with a decline in CCG but growth in DCAI. Q1 2026 revenue guidance is significantly lower than expected [4][7]. - TE Connectivity's Q1 2026 net sales were $4.7 billion, with strong performance in industrial and transportation sectors [4][8]. - Price increases announced by Resonac and other companies in the semiconductor materials sector due to rising costs [4][8]. Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 1.39% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with the construction materials sector leading the gains [9][10]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - TV panel prices are expected to see mild increases in January 2026, while monitor panel prices are predicted to remain stable [16][18]. - Memory prices for various DRAM types have shown an upward trend from January 19 to January 23, 2026 [21].