- The report highlights the monthly performance of strong stocks, indicating that despite the adjustment of heavyweight stocks, small-cap stocks provided a hedge, but the overall market profitability was weak, with total market turnover dropping from 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.16 trillion yuan on February 6[6] - The top 20 stocks with the highest gains in February are listed, including sectors such as space photovoltaics, batteries, copper connections, innovative drugs, real estate, and more, with the highest gain reaching 80.52% for *ST立方[6] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the maximum gains in various sectors since the start of the bull market, with telecommunications and metal materials/mining sectors achieving the highest gains of 218% and 217%, respectively, from February 5, 2024, to February 7, 2026[9]

本文字数：2511，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 2026.02. 08 2月首周，A股市场风格显著切换，科技板块遭遇深度调整。当周，电子、通信行业领跌两市，其中 电 子 行 业 总 市 值 跌 去 约 8900 亿 元 。 龙 头 股 更 是 放 量 杀 跌 ， 重 创 板 块 情 绪 ， 中 际 旭 创 （ 300308.SZ ） 、 新 易 盛 （ 300502.SZ ） 周 跌 幅 均 超 13% ， 寒 武 纪 （ 688256.SH ） 单 周 重 挫 17.63%，股价创2025年8月末以来新低。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，白酒、地产等防御性板块逆势走强，贵州茅台（600519.SH）周内涨 8.14%，保利发展（600048.SH）创下年内股价新高。 市场人士分析，临近春节长假，资金避险情绪升温，叠加科技股前期涨幅透支估值，投资者正从高波 动赛道转向业绩确定性更强的领域，反映出市场对估值合理性的审慎重估与对稳健收益的追求。 科技赛道全线降温，资金放量出逃 多重因素共振导致科技回调 本轮科技股的深度回调并非偶然，而是多重因素共同作用的结果。从时间节点、外部环境到内在估 值，科技板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant style switch in the first week of February, with the technology sector undergoing a deep adjustment while defensive sectors like liquor and real estate showed resilience [1][4]. Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector faced a comprehensive pullback, with the electronic industry market capitalization dropping by approximately 890 billion yuan, and leading stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng seeing weekly declines exceeding 13% [1][2]. - The electronic industry recorded a trading volume of 313.9 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year, while the industry index fell by 5.22% and the communication sector by 6.94% [2][3]. - The ChiNext 50 index, representing the technology sector, experienced its largest weekly decline since November 2025, with a drop of 5.76% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The market's risk appetite for technology stocks has notably decreased, with many stocks retreating 20% to 30% from their recent highs, indicating a significant sell-off [3][4]. - The upcoming Spring Festival led to increased risk aversion among investors, prompting them to shift from high-volatility sectors to those with stronger earnings certainty [1][4]. - High valuations in the technology sector, with the electronic industry's price-to-earnings ratio at 69.76, have created substantial internal adjustment pressure [4][5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing the Adjustment - Multiple factors contributed to the technology sector's deep pullback, including seasonal trading patterns, high valuations prompting profit-taking, and increased market volatility due to external macroeconomic conditions [4][5]. - The anticipation of rising interest rates in the U.S. has negatively impacted technology stock valuations, as indicated by market reactions to Federal Reserve signals [5][6]. - The shift of funds from technology stocks to defensive sectors like liquor and real estate suggests a phase of market style transition, with investors seeking stability amid uncertainty [6].

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 通信 光模块逻辑的背离与收敛 市场近期关于 CPO（共封装光学）技术将快速取代可插拔光模块的过 度担忧，背离了产业发展的基本面，在未来两至三年，乃至更长时间 内，可插拔光模块仍将是数据中心光互连的主流解决方案。市场担忧 和筹码结构集中需时间消化，长期来看市场终将回归业绩基本面主导 的共识。 【预期差纠偏：市场"焦虑"的起源与误读】 英伟达宣布将于今年规模部署 CPO 技术，市场普遍担忧 CPO 技术将 快速全面地取代可插拔光模块。这种过度担忧脱离了行业发展的基本 面，是对 CPO 技术的误读，导致市场估值出现非理性分化。 【筹码结构：过度集中与结构优化】 当前光模块板块筹码结构过于集中，需要时间进行结构优化与自我修 正。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% 4% 28% 52% 76% 100% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com 分析师 黄瀚 执业证书编号：S0680519 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·通信 证券分析师 欧子兴 执业证书：S0600525110002 ouzx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 通信行业点评报告 当前时点如何看光模块/CPO/NPO 投资机会 2026 年 02 月 08 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：AI 建设不及预期、光互联技术发生重大变化、系统性风险 -18% -7% 4% 15% 26% 37% 48% 59% 70% 81% 2025/2/10 2025/6/10 2025/10/8 2026/2/5 通信 沪深300 相关研究 《我国卫星通信战略提速，建议布局 两大方向》 2026-01-11 《2026 年通信投资机会梳理：算力为 核，卫星为翼》 2026-01-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 光模块未来需求置信度进一步提升。本周海外亚马逊、谷歌、微软和 Meta 等主要 CSP 披露最新财报，2026 年资本开支合计将达 6600 亿美 元，同比大幅增长 60%，主要投向 AI 算力的建设。我们认为，海外主 要 CSP 大厂持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly, driven by major cloud service providers (CSPs) like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, which are projected to spend a total of $660 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase, primarily focused on AI computing infrastructure [5]. - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) industry is accelerating its progress, with Lumentum announcing substantial orders for high-power lasers, and Nvidia's partners set to deploy CPO systems in 2026, indicating a robust market expansion [5]. - NPO (Near-Package Optics) technology is gaining traction due to its cost-effectiveness and flexibility, making it a preferred choice among CSP clients, which could enhance the long-term growth potential of related companies [5]. - The report emphasizes that multiple optical interconnection solutions will coexist in the long term, suggesting that investors should focus on different investment priorities based on market cycles and technological advancements [5]. Summary by Sections Optical Modules - The future demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, with a competitive edge due to the ongoing evolution of products like 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T modules, leading to quarterly revenue growth for related companies [5]. CPO Industry - The CPO sector is witnessing accelerated industrialization, with significant orders expected to materialize in 2026 and 2027, indicating a clear commercial value and expanding market space [5]. NPO Technology - NPO technology is recognized for its unique advantages, including cost and power efficiency, and is anticipated to become a long-term technical choice for CSPs, suggesting a strong growth trajectory for companies involved in this space [5]. Investment Focus - The report recommends focusing on three core investment themes: 1. Large-scale optical modules benefiting from high-speed interconnect demand, with key recommendations for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and attention to new opportunities in the second-tier market [5]. 2. Smaller optical modules with increased customer demand, highlighting potential breakthroughs for companies like LianTe Technology and HuiLv Ecology [5]. 3. New optical technologies that are emerging, with a focus on companies like Tianfu Communication and potential opportunities in the technology upgrade cycle [5].

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Non-ferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a historical 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower due to overnight declines in US stocks but quickly rebounded before a late-session drop, with most major indices closing down [1] - The market showed increased volatility, with 2,749 stocks rising and sectors like oil, chemicals, and power equipment performing strongly, while consumer goods and technology stocks, such as liquor and telecommunications, led the declines [1][7] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that A-shares are likely to continue a volatile upward trend, presenting opportunities for bottom-fishing [3][15] - During the current market consolidation phase, a defensive strategy is recommended, with a balanced allocation between undervalued blue chips and high-growth sectors, while controlling positions to avoid over-concentration [3][16] Trading Activity - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 4,065.58 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.73% to 3,236.46 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.33% [4] - Market trading activity continued to decline, with a total trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, down to 308.9 billion yuan [4] - Margin trading balances decreased to 2.68 trillion yuan as of February 5, indicating a cooling sentiment among leveraged funds [4] Stock Performance - Individual stock performance was mixed, with 2,550 stocks closing down and 61 stocks hitting the daily limit up [5] - Notable performers included Ningde Times (300750), which rose by 1.7% to 369.11 yuan per share, while Guizhou Moutai (600519) fell by 2.57% to 1,515.01 yuan per share [5][6] - The consumer goods sector, including food and beverages, saw declines exceeding 2%, while sectors like chemicals and power equipment experienced gains [8][9] Sector Analysis - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a rise of 2.55%, while the basic chemicals sector increased by 2.05% [9][11] - Defensive sectors such as consumption and banking showed relative strength amid market volatility [13][14] - The technology sector experienced a shift in funds, moving from high-growth stocks to more stable blue-chip companies [14] Future Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on low-valuation stocks with stable performance and high growth potential, while being cautious of overvalued stocks [15][16] - The upcoming Chinese New Year and the National People's Congress in March may influence market dynamics, with expectations of a more stable market post-holiday [15][16]

Group 1 - A total of 1,714 companies in the Shenzhen market have pre-disclosed their 2025 operating performance, representing 59.39% of the total companies, with nearly 60% showing improved performance [1] - Among the pre-disclosed companies, 987 are expected to see performance improvement, accounting for 57.58%, with 430 companies achieving continuous profitability and year-on-year growth [1] - The top 100 companies by market capitalization in Shenzhen are expected to achieve a combined net profit of 2,056.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.51% [1] Group 2 - Of the 629 newly listed companies under the registration system in Shenzhen, 307 have pre-disclosed their 2025 operating performance, with a total expected net profit of 196.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.11% [2] - 183 of these companies are expected to be profitable, with a pre-profit ratio of 59.61%, which is 7 percentage points higher than the overall Shenzhen market [2] - More than 60% of companies in the real economy, excluding finance and real estate, are expected to report positive net profits, with 18 out of 28 industries showing profitability [2] Group 3 - In the context of industrial transformation and upgrading, companies in the machinery and basic chemical sectors are expected to achieve net profits of 84.85 billion yuan and 123.51 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 200.07% and 284.56% [3] - The computer, communication, and electronics sectors are projected to achieve a combined net profit of 760.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 155.32% [3] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to report a net profit of 193.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.11% [3]

Group 1 - The overall market fund value increased to 36.63 trillion yuan by December 31, 2025, with bond funds accounting for 30.31% of the total, marking a 0.31 percentage point increase from the end of Q3 2025 [5][9] - The performance of public funds varied, with bond funds showing a positive return of 0.5%, while QDII funds experienced a significant decline of -2.98% [20][23] - By the end of 2025, stock and mixed funds accounted for 24.84% of total fund value, with stock investment ratios remaining high, as 33.76% of funds had over 90% in stock investments [41][42] Group 2 - The top 20 heavy stocks were primarily in the electronics, non-bank financial, and power equipment sectors, with Ningde Times, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng being the top three by market value [28][29] - The performance of heavy stocks was mixed, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading with a 46.31% increase, while Ningde Times saw a decline of -7.32% [30][32] - The distribution of heavy stocks showed that electronics remained the largest sector, accounting for 8.21% of the total stock investment value [33] Group 3 - The top 20 stocks with increased holdings were concentrated in electronics, non-bank financial, and power equipment sectors, with Zhongji Xuchuang and China Ping An seeing significant increases in their market value [34][37] - The top gainers among the increased holdings included China Satellite with a remarkable 170.90% increase, followed by Maiwei Shares at 104.67% [38][39] - The communication sector had the highest increase in fund allocations, with a 1.74% increase in Q4 2025 [40] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on technology innovation sectors that are expected to see improvements in industry conditions and performance, particularly in non-bank financial sectors with strong leading brokers [41][42]