中国银河（601881）证券研报指出，2025年Q1汽车行业指数(ZX)相对于沪深300指数涨跌幅为 +12.51%，乘用车、商用车、零部件、摩托车及其他、汽车销售及服务板块均跑赢沪深300指数。Q1受 以旧换新补贴延续政策驱动，汽车市场销量高增长，叠加年初以来机器人行情火热，汽车板块超额收益 明显。2025年Q1基金(普通股票型+偏股混合型)重仓持股中汽车股票投资市值占比为3.47%，同比 +1.30pct，环比+0.53pct，公募基金资金继续增配汽车板块，持仓占比已连续五个季度实现环比增长， 续创历史新高，头部整车企业比亚迪（002594）、零跑、理想等以及机器人相关标的获资金青睐。展望 2025年Q2，上海车展自主品牌多款新能源新品亮相，市场迎来一轮密集新品供应期，有望驱动消费者 购车热情的继续提升，推动消费者购车需求释放，汽车市场高景气有望延续，板块仍具备良好的投资价 值。 ...

行业研究 邮箱：suqianye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523050001 证 券 研 究 报 告 电动车行业跟踪报告 4 月新势力交付同环比持续增长，零跑连续 推荐（维持） 两月稳居新势力交付榜首 电力设备及新能源 2025 年 05 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：苏千叶 证券分析师：黄麟 邮箱：huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 299 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47,031.12 | 4.86 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 41,360.01 | 5.39 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -8.6% | -9.5% | 1.9% | | 相对表现 | -4.9% | -6.5% | -2.7% | -18% -5% 8% 20% 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 2024-05- ...

Core Insights - The competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers in China remains intense, with sales figures being a key indicator of market positioning [1][2][26] - Leap Motor has emerged as a leader in April sales, achieving a significant year-on-year growth [4][5][26] - Other companies like Xiaopeng and NIO have shown positive sales trends, while some brands are experiencing declines [9][12][16][20] Sales Rankings - Leap Motor ranked first with 41,309 units sold in April, a 10.63% increase from March [2][4] - Xiaopeng ranked second with 35,045 units, marking a 5.54% increase [2][9] - Li Auto ranked third with 33,939 units, but saw a 7.46% decrease from the previous month [2][20] Performance Analysis - Leap Motor's success is attributed to its strong value proposition and efficient delivery system, with its C10 model achieving over 100,000 deliveries [7][4] - Xiaopeng's consistent performance is linked to its strategic adjustments and successful model launches [9][10] - NIO's sales increased by 53% in April, indicating a positive shift in its market strategy [12] Declining Sales - Xiaomi's sales fell by 4.25% to 28,000 units, reflecting challenges faced in the market [14] - Aion, Deep Blue, and Zeekr experienced significant declines, with Aion's sales down 16.96% [16][17] - Li Auto's decline raises concerns about its competitive position, especially in a crowded SUV market [20][25] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new entrants and existing players intensifying their efforts to capture market share [26] - The importance of maintaining strong sales performance is emphasized, as companies without robust competitive advantages may struggle to survive [26]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in April showed stable growth, with significant contributions from new energy vehicles and new model launches during the Shanghai Auto Show [1][3]. Market Overview - The total retail market size for narrow passenger cars in April is estimated at approximately 1.75 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% [1][3]. - New energy vehicle retail sales are expected to reach 900,000 units, with a penetration rate of 51.4% [1][3]. New Energy Vehicle Performance - Six sample new force car companies (excluding Xiaomi) delivered a total of 175,951 vehicles in April, showing a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 2.6% [1][3]. Company-Specific Deliveries - **Leap Motor**: Delivered 41,039 units in April, up 173.5% year-on-year and 10.6% month-on-month [2][4]. - **Xpeng**: Delivered 35,045 units, a year-on-year increase of 273.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [2][6]. - **Li Auto**: Delivered 33,939 units, up 31.6% year-on-year but down 7.5% month-on-month [2][5]. - **Aion**: Delivered 28,301 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 17.0% [2]. - **NIO**: Delivered 23,900 units, up 53.0% year-on-year and 58.9% month-on-month [2][6]. - **ZEEKR**: Delivered 13,727 units, down 14.7% year-on-year and 11.0% month-on-month [2][7]. - **Xiaomi**: Delivered over 28,000 units, with a new SUV model expected to launch in mid-2025 [2][7]. New Model Launches - The Shanghai Auto Show is expected to boost the market with new model launches, providing new growth momentum for the new energy vehicle sector [1][3]. - Leap Motor's new B10 model features unique laser radar technology and has shown promising initial sales [4]. - Li Auto is launching new models, including the MEGAHome family edition and L6 smart version, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [5]. - Xpeng's new model, the 2025 X9, was unveiled at the Shanghai Auto Show, targeting the mid-to-large MPV segment [6]. - NIO's new models, including the Firefly and L60, were also showcased at the event [6]. Technological Advancements - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards intelligent driving technologies, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge in promoting and iterating these technologies [8]. - The advancement of intelligent driving capabilities is expected to lower hardware barriers and expand applications in the mainstream market [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for companies with strong intelligent driving capabilities and product cycles, recommending stocks such as BYD, Geely, Xpeng, and Li Auto [9].

Group 1 - The US and Ukraine have jointly established a reconstruction investment fund aimed at attracting global investments into Ukraine, with a 50:50 management structure between the two countries [2] - The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues, covering 50% of funds from new licenses in key materials and oil and gas projects [2] Group 2 - In April, major domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers reported significant sales growth, with BYD selling 380,089 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [3] - Geely's new energy sales surged by 144% year-on-year, while Leap Motor and Xpeng saw increases of 173% and 273% respectively [3] Group 3 - The US stock market saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.21%, Nasdaq up 1.52%, and S&P 500 up 0.63%, driven by large tech stocks [4][5] - Microsoft shares surged by 7.6%, reaching a market capitalization of over $3.20 trillion, surpassing Apple [4] Group 4 - Amazon's Q1 earnings per share were $1.59, exceeding expectations, but the guidance for Q2 revenue and operating profit fell short of analyst predictions [14] - Apple's Q2 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of $95.36 billion and a net profit of $24.78 billion [15][16] Group 5 - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 26 reached 241,000, exceeding expectations and marking the highest level since February 2025 [20] - The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US showed significant contraction, indicating the largest decline in five months [22] Group 6 - The Macau gaming revenue for April increased by 1.7% year-on-year, reaching 18.858 billion MOP, marking three consecutive months of growth [25] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 7.23% year-on-year in April [29] Group 7 - TrendForce reported a decline in visibility for solar module orders in May, with leading manufacturers reducing production and facing price drops [30]

根据各种消息指向，定性结论MEGA HOME占比远远大于Ultra是确定的，定量数据可能在9:1左右。 即MEGA这波实实在在将之前降下来的均价又打回去了。 此前MEGA除首发的24年3月外，仅两次单月破千，最高为1255,10次在589-916之间。 | 3229 | | | | | | | | | | | | | MEGA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024年3月 | 2024年4月 1145 | 2024年5月 614 | 2024年6月 589 | 2024年7月 ୧୧4 | 2024年8月 746 | 2024年9月 879 | 2024年10月 824 | 2024年11月 863 | 2024年12月 1255 | 2025年1月 807 | 2025年2月 ୧81 | 2025年3月 916 | | 目前看起来即使很保守估计，MEGA月销1500+是没有问题的，即实现量价齐升。 乐观估计MEGA 后续可以月销1800-2500左右，12月到2 ...

事件：公司发布24 年报及25 年一季报。24 年公司营业收入486.15 亿元，同比-0.35%，实现归母净利润 40.76 亿元，同比+0.63%，实现扣非归母净利润31.62 亿元，同比+14.76%。25Q1 公司实现营收127.96 亿元，同环比+37.34%/-12.15%，实现归母净利润11.01 亿元，同环比+3.32%/+24.15%，实现扣非归母净 利润8.18 亿元，同环比+16.60%/+23.60%。25Q1 公司销售毛利率17.16%，同环比-0.48/-0.32pct；销售净 利率9.10%，同环比-2.23/+2.60pct。 储能出货快速增长盈利能力维持较高水平，动力产能利用率快速提升。24年公司储能/动力出货量分别 为50.45/30.29GWh，同比+92%/+8%，25Q1公司储能/动力出货量分别为12.67/10.17GWh，同比 +81%/+58%，储能出货量维持高增，动力在25Q1 恢复高增长，主要受益于下游客户小鹏、零跑等客户 放量。我们预计2025 全年公司储能/动力出货量有望分别达81/52GWh，同比+60%/+72%，全年出货量 维持高增长。盈利能力方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gotion High-Tech (002074) is actively managing its business operations in response to external challenges, such as tariffs and market dynamics, while focusing on strategic partnerships and technological advancements to enhance its market position. Group 1: Business Impact and Strategy - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the company's export business is limited due to the small proportion of U.S. business in total revenue, and the company is working on overseas production capacity to mitigate these effects [2] - The company has established a long-term strategic partnership with Chery Automobile, achieving over 40% battery supply for Chery's new energy passenger vehicles in 2024, with a focus on expanding into high-end platforms [3] - The company is enhancing its production capacity for mid-to-high-end vehicles, with a 15% increase in the shipment ratio for B-class and above models [4] Group 2: Product Development and Innovations - The company has launched a 5MWh energy storage liquid-cooled container with significant cycle life and longevity, contributing to approximately 35% of its energy storage shipments [5] - A modular battery swapping system has been developed, improving efficiency for electric heavy trucks, with successful collaborations on battery swapping vehicles across various models [6] - The company is expanding its production capacity to 28GWh based on customer demand and aims to enhance production efficiency [7] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.61%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 45.55% [14] - The company has a debt ratio of 72.81% and a gross margin of 18.28%, indicating a stable financial position despite market fluctuations [14] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The company is monitoring the lithium carbonate market, which has seen price declines, and is implementing cost-reduction strategies to maintain normal production levels [9] - Ongoing research and development in solid-state batteries have yielded promising results, with the successful development of a vehicle-grade solid-state battery [10] - The company is exploring new application scenarios in emerging industries such as low-altitude flight and electric ships, aiming for comprehensive breakthroughs from R&D to product application [11]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company shipped approximately 63 GWh, achieving revenue of 35.392 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.98% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.207 billion, up 28.56% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 263 million, a significant increase of 125.86% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company shipped about 18 GWh, generating revenue of 9.055 billion, a growth of 20.61% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The company has a long-term strategic partnership with Chery Automobile, recognized as an "Excellent Supplier" in 2024, with battery products supplied to over 40% of Chery's new energy passenger vehicles [3] - The collaboration includes battery supply for hybrid models, with a supply rate exceeding 60% [3] Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The company has made breakthroughs in high-end vehicle supply, with B-class and above vehicle shipments accounting for approximately 15% of total shipments [4] - The Gotion Grid 5MWh energy storage system features high-capacity cells with over 15,000 cycles and a lifespan exceeding 20 years, contributing to about 35% of the company's shipments [5] - The company is actively developing a modular battery swapping system, enhancing efficiency for electric heavy trucks [6] Group 4: Market and Production Insights - The company’s U.S. business is relatively small, and the impact of tariff increases on overall performance is limited [2] - The lithium carbonate market has seen price declines, but the company maintains normal production through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [9] - The company is focused on optimizing inventory management to mitigate asset impairment risks [13][14] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its capacity for the Volkswagen project to 28 GWh based on customer demand [7] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to increase further in 2025 due to strong order demand [8] - The company is investing in the development of all-solid-state batteries, achieving significant progress with the "Jinshi Battery" [10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show marked a shift in focus from power batteries to intelligent driving technologies, with companies emphasizing their advancements in smart driving systems [2] - The promotion of intelligent driving technologies adhered to regulations set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, avoiding misleading terms and focusing on realistic portrayals of capabilities [2][16] - Key trends observed include accelerated technological iterations, deeper scenario-based implementations, and a balance between safety and user experience [2] Intelligent Driving Technology Routes - Five distinct intelligent driving technology routes were showcased, reflecting the diversity of approaches within the industry [3] - Huawei's multi-sensor fusion route, emphasizing high-precision perception through 192-line LiDAR, was prominently featured, showcasing its latest advancements [4] - Tesla represents the pure vision technology route, while companies like Xiaopeng have shifted from LiDAR to pure vision technologies [4] End-to-End Large Model Approach - The end-to-end large model route emerged as a popular technology path, aiming to evolve from "mimicking humans" to "surpassing humans" [5] - Huawei's ADS 4.0 completed 600 million kilometers of high-speed L3 simulation testing, indicating readiness for commercial deployment [7] - Xiaopeng's 720 billion parameter autonomous driving model, significantly larger than mainstream models, demonstrates advanced decision-making capabilities [7] Scene-Based Implementation - Intelligent driving technologies have transitioned from concepts to practical applications, with nearly all participating companies demonstrating real-world implementations [9] - Ideal's L6 model features dual Thor-U chips with 1400 TOPS of computing power, enhancing performance in complex driving scenarios [10] - Leap's C16 model has reduced the price of LiDAR-equipped vehicles to the 130,000 yuan range, improving parking efficiency by 40% [13] Safety and Redundancy - Safety redundancy has become a focal point, with companies emphasizing their systems' ability to handle various driving conditions [14] - The collaboration between 4D Mapping and Qualcomm introduced a comprehensive safety architecture, ensuring 100% redundancy in core functionalities [15] Regulatory Compliance - Recent regulatory tightening has prompted companies to adopt a more rational approach to marketing their intelligent driving technologies [16] - Companies like Xiaopeng are proactively educating users about the limitations and proper use of their driving assistance features [16][17] L3 Level Autonomous Driving - The auto show highlighted the imminent arrival of L3 level autonomous driving, with some companies already meeting hardware requirements [18] - L2 level driving assistance has become standard in new vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.7% expected to exceed 65% by 2025 [18] - L3 level autonomous driving has shown high success rates in highway scenarios but faces challenges in urban environments, particularly under adverse conditions [18]