Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry is entering a significant performance period, with expectations for intensified carbon reduction efforts [1] - The year 2026 marks the transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with substantial progress anticipated in carbon reduction initiatives [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies focusing on performance and increased dividends, with 61 environmental companies expected to release their 2025 performance forecasts [5] Summary by Sections 2025 Performance Forecast - 61 environmental companies have released performance forecasts, with 14 companies expecting significant positive growth, 4 companies experiencing declines, 8 companies turning losses into profits, and 35 companies reporting losses [12] - Notable performers include: - Anhui Instrument Technology: Expected net profit of 42-62 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 191.52%-330.34% [12] - GaoNeng Environment: Expected net profit of 750-900 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.66%-86.79% [12] - Yuehai Investment: Expected net profit growth of 43%, reaching nearly 4.5 billion HKD [13] Biodiesel and UCO Market - The average export price of UCO is expected to reach 7,742 CNY/ton in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [19] - UCO export volume remains high, with a total of 2.7558 million tons exported in 2025, despite a 17% decline in biodiesel exports [19] - The price of UCO has shown a consistent upward trend, with the latest price reaching 1,075 USD/ton, a 9.1% increase from early 2025 [29] Policy and Market Tracking - The report tracks significant developments in carbon reduction policies, including the establishment of a dual control system for carbon emissions and energy consumption [33] - The carbon trading market has seen a total transaction volume of 862,100 tons, with a closing price of 79.00 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026 [36] - Recent policies emphasize energy efficiency and carbon reduction in public institutions, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year in 2025, with the construction of zero-carbon parks accelerating hydrogen demand [19][23]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to promoting green hydrogen development and application, with a focus on establishing zero-carbon factories in key industries by 2027 [19][20]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in the scale of electrolyzer projects by 156% in 2025 [26]. Market Performance - As of January 30, the environmental sector has underperformed the broader market, declining by 2.78% compared to a 0.44% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][11]. - Specific sub-sectors within the environmental industry, such as water management and waste treatment, have also seen declines, with the waste management sector down by 6.06% [14][17]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with other departments, has issued guidelines for the management of ecological industrial parks, emphasizing low-carbon and high-quality development [31]. - A new draft regulation on industrial water conservation has been proposed, encouraging large industrial enterprises to establish water management systems [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, along with resource recycling, are likely to maintain high levels of prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [47]. - Key companies recommended for investment include: Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention suggested for companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year in 2025, with the construction of zero-carbon parks accelerating hydrogen demand [2][19]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to promoting green hydrogen development and applications, with a focus on establishing zero-carbon factories in key industries by 2027 [19][30]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in the scale of electrolyzer projects by 156% in 2025, indicating a robust demand for green hydrogen [26][30]. Market Performance - As of January 30, the environmental sector has underperformed the broader market, declining by 2.78%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [3][11]. - The report notes that various sub-sectors within the environmental industry have shown mixed performance, with water management and waste treatment sectors experiencing declines [14][17]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with other departments, has issued guidelines for the management of ecological industrial parks, emphasizing low-carbon and high-quality development [3][31]. - Recent policies aim to establish a water-saving management system for industrial enterprises, encouraging the installation of online measurement facilities for water usage [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, along with resource recycling, are likely to maintain high levels of prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [47]. - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co [47].

本文来自微信公众号： 正解局 ，作者：正解局 有个事，可能超出很多人的认知： 以下文章来源于正解局 ，作者正解局 正解局 . 解读产业，发现价值。产业/城市/企业。 从"垃圾围城"到"垃圾不够烧"，这不只是一个环保逆袭的故事。 答案也没那么简单。 最近很多媒体，不约而同关注到了深圳罗湖区的这座垃圾山，沉睡了二十多年的玉龙垃圾填埋场。 11.69万平方米的超大绿色天幕下，多台挖掘机有序工作着，对这座沉睡近30年、海拔110米、高差 达46米的垃圾山，进行精准"解剖"。 这也是目前全国体量最大、全量开挖的垃圾环境修复治理工程。 这座填埋场建于1983年，1997年停用，2005年底实施封场，曾是深圳市最早、最大的生活垃圾填埋 场之一，累计填埋垃圾超过410万吨，大约有250万立方米，差不多2.5个"鸟巢"那么大。 臭气、蚊蝇、渗滤液污染…… 在当年，在城市快速扩张的年代，焚烧技术尚未成熟，填埋是唯一的选择，这座填埋场是不得已的存 在。 直到2019年，深圳南山二期、宝安三期、龙岗三大能源生态园提前投产运行，全市新增垃圾焚烧处 理能力1.03万吨/日，总设计焚烧能力达到1.8万吨/日，最高可达2万吨/日。 深圳在全 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental operation industry as stable, with specific segments rated as follows: waste incineration power generation - stable, hazardous waste disposal - negative, and recycling of renewable resources - stable [5] Core Insights - The environmental industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by both policy and market forces, with waste incineration power generation transitioning towards a market-driven model despite challenges such as regional supply-demand imbalances and reliance on policy for profitability [4][21] - The hazardous waste disposal sector is experiencing profound changes, with persistent overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to pressure on profits and a need for technological breakthroughs and increased industry concentration [22][23] - The recycling of renewable resources is expanding in scale while facing internal challenges, with a focus on technological advancements and efficiency improvements expected to accelerate transformation by 2026 [4][21] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The waste incineration power generation sector is shifting towards a market-driven model, characterized by trends such as network collaboration, market-oriented operations, intelligent upgrades, and international competition [9][20] - The hazardous waste disposal industry is marked by structural overcapacity and low-price competition, with a need for rational behavior among market participants and a focus on resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is experiencing both expansion and structural upgrades, with leading companies expected to gain advantages through core technologies and specialization in emerging sectors [4][21] Financial Performance - Waste incineration companies are benefiting from market-oriented operations and international orders, leading to improved cash flow and reduced leverage [7] - Hazardous waste disposal companies are facing increased operational pressures, with many reporting significant losses and negative cash flow [7] - The financial performance of recycling companies varies widely, with overall profitability remaining moderate and leverage levels slightly increasing [7] Conclusion - The waste incineration sector is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand through regional collaboration and raw material optimization, with a shift towards diversified revenue models and enhanced technological integration [20][21] - The hazardous waste sector is anticipated to continue facing challenges related to overcapacity and competition, necessitating a focus on high-value resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is projected to undergo significant transformation driven by technological advancements and efficiency improvements, with leading firms positioned to capitalize on these trends [4][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both Utilities and Environmental sectors [8]. Core Insights - The carbon pricing market is undergoing a value reconstruction driven by both policy and market forces, with carbon prices expected to stabilize at 150-200 RMB/ton by 2030 [3][7]. - The green certificate market is currently underperforming, with prices at only 8% of the carbon price, indicating significant potential for value release [5][7]. - The upward pressure on electricity prices is anticipated from both carbon costs and green certificate revenues, with wholesale electricity prices projected to increase by 10% to 385 RMB/MWh [6]. Summary by Sections Carbon Price Trends - Carbon prices peaked at 98 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 but fell to a low of 38 RMB/ton in 2025 due to declining energy prices and increased renewable energy capacity [4]. - As of January 2026, carbon prices have stabilized at an average of 73 RMB/ton, supported by compliance demand from the power sector and the expansion of carbon markets in heavy industries [4]. Green Certificate Market - The average price of green certificates was 4.2 RMB per certificate in 2025 and increased to 5.5 RMB in 2026, still significantly lower than carbon prices [5]. - The low price of green certificates is attributed to the incomplete integration with the carbon market and insufficient market demand for green electricity [5]. Electricity Price Dynamics - Current carbon and green certificate prices are expected to push wholesale electricity prices from 350 RMB/MWh to 385 RMB/MWh, with further increases anticipated if carbon prices rise to 150-200 RMB/ton [6]. - If green certificate prices align with carbon prices, wholesale electricity prices could increase by 24-31% [6]. Future Outlook - The carbon market is expected to transition from "soft constraints" to "hard constraints" by 2027, with a gradual tightening of quotas and an increase in the proportion of paid allowances [7]. - Policies are being established to link the environmental value of green certificates with carbon reduction values, which may enhance the economic viability of green electricity [7].

● 本报记者 王宇露 党的二十届四中全会系统谋划了以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴的宏伟蓝图，并对金融工 作提出了加快建设金融强国等战略要求。金融是国民经济的血脉，金融强国之"强"，不仅在规模与体 量，更在于其服务实体经济、促进科技创新、支撑产业升级的核心功能，关系中国式现代化建设全局。 作为广东省国有资本运营公司旗下的基金投资平台，广东恒健资产管理有限公司将学习贯彻全会精神作 为当前和今后一个时期的首要政治任务，自觉以"服务国家战略，赋能产业升级"为根本遵循，将公司发 展置于"十五五"的历史方位与战略全局中谋划，努力为助推广东省现代化产业体系高质量发展，为金融 强国建设和中国式现代化大局贡献专业力量。 全力服务现代化产业体系建设 二是深入研究驱动，推动投资转向战略引领。通过深入对接行业主管部门、产业联盟、高校及行业协 会，系统开展产业链研究，掌握企业现状和行业发展趋势，挖掘重点项目和典型应用场景，形成研究报 告、绘制产业图谱、建立项目储备库，精准把握技术趋势与投资方向，变"机会投资"为"战略布局"，为 支持技术攻关奠定坚实基础。 二是锚定链主企业，以高质量投资驱动产业升级。在产业体系从"大而全"迈向 ...

四是精准招引重大项目，服务地方产业布局。针对广东省各地市产业发展需求，恒健资产精准引入"大 项目"服务地市开展"大招商、招大商"，通过基金招引模式，精准引入对产业链强链延链补链具有关键 意义的重大项目。恒健资产联合头部银行AIC组建了两个百亿级的广东战略性产业促进发展基金，与省 内十余个地市建立常态化项目对接机制。截至目前，已通过基金完成帮助企业收购上市公司实控权、引 入央企资源投资广东省"百千万工程"等项目，落地项目约30亿元。 ● 本报记者 王宇露 党的二十届四中全会系统谋划了以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴的宏伟蓝图，并对金融工 作提出了加快建设金融强国等战略要求。金融是国民经济的血脉，金融强国之"强"，不仅在规模与体 量，更在于其服务实体经济、促进科技创新、支撑产业升级的核心功能，关系中国式现代化建设全局。 作为广东省国有资本运营公司旗下的基金投资平台，广东恒健资产管理有限公司将学习贯彻全会精神作 为当前和今后一个时期的首要政治任务，自觉以"服务国家战略，赋能产业升级"为根本遵循，将公司发 展置于"十五五"的历史方位与战略全局中谋划，努力为助推广东省现代化产业体系高质量发展，为金融 强国建设和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology innovation bonds have become a preferred financing option for quality enterprises due to their low interest rates, simplified processes, and favorable policies, aligning with national technology innovation strategies [1] - Since their introduction in 2025, technology innovation bonds have maintained a low coupon rate around 2%, with recent issuances like Huajin Technology's 3-year bond at 198 million and BWS's 5 million bond also at 1.98%, providing significant cost advantages for enterprises [1] Group 2 - The waste incineration power generation industry is currently benefiting from a favorable financing cost environment, with companies like Hanlan Environment issuing bonds at a low rate of 1.90% and a subscription multiple of 6.62 times [2] - Yongxing Co., a leading enterprise in solid waste treatment in Guangzhou, is expected to leverage low interest rates to replace high-interest debt, significantly reducing financial costs and enhancing performance [2] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds by Yongxing Co. is seen as a typical example of environmental companies capitalizing on policy benefits and market opportunities, translating into tangible growth and long-term value for investors [2][4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Yongxing Co. to publicly issue technology innovation corporate bonds with a total face value of up to 3 billion, valid for 24 months, which is expected to support the company in reducing financial costs and enhancing performance [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese urban water supply industry is entering a mature phase, with total water supply expected to reach 704.88 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.52% [1][13]. Industry Overview - Urban water supply is a vital municipal infrastructure system consisting of water source extraction facilities, water treatment plants, and distribution networks, adhering to principles of water source development and conservation [3]. - The industry is closely linked to urbanization, with the urbanization rate in China increasing from 58.52% in 2017 to 67% in 2024, driving demand for both domestic and industrial water [8]. Supply Scale - The total length of urban water supply pipelines in China has grown from 710,200 kilometers in 2015 to 1,199,500 kilometers in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 6% [9][10]. - The comprehensive production capacity of urban water supply is projected to be 34.418 million cubic meters per day in 2024, with a utilization rate of 56.11%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Demand Scale - The urban water user population in China increased from 451 million in 2015 to 564 million in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.85%. However, it is expected to slightly decline to 564 million in 2024 [15]. Competitive Landscape - The urban water supply industry features a diversified competitive landscape characterized by state-owned dominance, the rise of private enterprises, and foreign investment penetration. Major players include Beijing Enterprises Water Group, Beijing Capital Eco-Environmental Protection Group, and others [16][17]. Development Trends - The industry is shifting from a focus on quantity expansion to ensuring quality and safety in water supply, emphasizing comprehensive water quality monitoring and risk management [18]. - Business models are evolving from traditional water supply to integrated water service providers, offering a range of value-added services [19]. - Value creation is transitioning from cost control to leveraging data assets and smart operations, utilizing IoT and AI for enhanced efficiency and decision-making [20].