Summary of Stablecoin Market Report Industry Overview - The global stablecoin market has reached a size of $250 billion, primarily used for cryptocurrency trading, with future growth expected in cross-border payments and trade, significantly reducing costs and enabling real-time transactions [1][4] Key Companies and Developments - Major companies such as Meta, Walmart, Amazon, and Shopify are actively exploring stablecoin payment options, indicating a trend towards broader adoption as legal frameworks improve [1][5][6] - The implementation of regulatory frameworks, such as the EU's "Crypto Asset Market Regulation" and Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance," is expected to facilitate further market entry by companies [1][7] Market Dynamics - USDT dominates the market with a valuation of $160 billion, accounting for 62.5% of the market share, while USDC follows with over $60 billion, representing 24% of the market [1][8] - USDT's flexible reserve system and strong profitability contrast with USDC's higher compliance but lower profitability [8][12] Future Projections - Standard Chartered predicts the global stablecoin market will grow to $2 trillion in the next three years, with other institutions forecasting a potential market size of $3-4 trillion in 5-10 years, driven by cross-border payment scenarios [1][9] Technological Support - Blockchain technologies like Ripple and Solana are increasingly supported for their high-frequency trading capabilities, serving as crucial links between the crypto market and traditional finance [1][10] Investment Opportunities - Investment directions in the stablecoin market include: 1. Issuance side: Companies like Ant Group may apply for stablecoin licenses following Hong Kong's regulations [2][15] 2. Trading platforms: Independent trading platforms in Hong Kong [2][15] 3. Payment solutions: Stablecoin payments in cross-border trade and retail [2][15] 4. Financial IT: Companies providing banking and securities IT solutions [2][15][16] 5. Equity-related companies: Companies associated with Ant Chain and JD Chain [2][15][16] 6. Real World Assets (RWA): Tokenized stocks and other assets [2][16] Regulatory Landscape - The regulatory environment is evolving, with the US "Genius Act" imposing stricter requirements on stablecoin issuers, including full reserve backing and transparency [1][7] Impact on Global Finance - The development of stablecoins may promote the internationalization of currencies like the Hong Kong dollar and the Chinese yuan, potentially challenging the dominance of the US dollar [1][17]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the stablecoin industry, anticipating rapid expansion in the next 3-5 years, with a projected market size reaching between $2 trillion to $3.7 trillion [3][55]. Core Insights - The stablecoin sector is evolving towards compliance and payment infrastructure, driven by regulatory developments in the U.S. and other countries, which aim to enhance financial efficiency and counteract the dominance of traditional currencies [3][44]. - The establishment of a regulatory framework for stablecoins in Hong Kong is seen as strategically significant, reinforcing its status as an international financial center and expanding the reach of the digital yuan [3][59][63]. - The report highlights the emergence of various companies that stand to benefit from the growth of stablecoins, including IT service providers, licensed stablecoin issuers, and cross-border payment firms [4][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Stablecoins have emerged as a solution to the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies, with USDT and USDC being prominent examples that cater to different market needs [7][24]. - The report emphasizes that stablecoins are expected to become a mainstream payment method, potentially disrupting traditional banking services [51][55]. 2. Focus on Hong Kong Stablecoins - The introduction of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong is a landmark development, establishing a licensing regime for stablecoin operations and enhancing regulatory clarity [59][60]. - The ordinance aims to solidify Hong Kong's position as a global financial hub and facilitate the integration of the digital yuan into the stablecoin ecosystem [61][63]. 3. Related Companies - Key beneficiaries identified include IT service providers like 恒生电子 and 金证股份, licensed stablecoin issuers such as 众安在线, and cross-border payment companies like 新国都 and 拉卡拉 [4][50]. - The report also notes the involvement of major tech firms and banks in exploring stablecoin issuance and related services, indicating a broader trend towards digital finance integration [49][50].

Core Insights - The financial technology sector is experiencing growth, with the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) rising by 0.51% as of July 10, 2025, and notable increases in constituent stocks such as Zhongke Jincai (10.00%) and Cuiwei Co. (6.32%) [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) has shown a weekly increase of 5.05% and a current price of 1.44 yuan, with a total scale of 1.073 billion yuan [3] - Recent regulatory developments, including the issuance of model contracts for data circulation, are expected to enhance the institutional foundation for financial technology development in China [4] Market Performance - The Financial Technology ETF recorded a net outflow of 25.89 million yuan, but has attracted a total of 90.28 million yuan over the last five trading days [4] - Leveraged funds are actively investing, with the latest financing buy-in amounting to 7.11 million yuan and a financing balance of 85.11 million yuan [5] - The Financial Technology ETF has achieved a one-year net value increase of 125.73%, ranking 2nd out of 2907 index stock funds [5] Risk and Return Metrics - The Financial Technology ETF has a year-to-date relative drawdown of 0.44%, with the fastest recovery time among comparable funds at 79 days [6] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in its category [7] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index, which includes companies involved in financial technology, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 51.2% of the index [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][16]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the cross-border payment industry in China, benefiting from the expansion of cross-border e-commerce [4][18]. - The company has obtained 65 global payment licenses, enabling it to provide a wide range of digital payment services [4][18]. - The projected revenue growth for the company is robust, with expected revenues of RMB 1,315 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 2,577 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [3][44]. - The company is expected to experience significant fluctuations in profits due to a one-time large investment gain in 2025, with net profits projected to be RMB 1,485 million in 2025, followed by losses in 2026 and a small profit in 2027 [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 1,315 million in 2024, RMB 1,652 million in 2025, RMB 2,089 million in 2026, and RMB 2,577 million in 2027, with growth rates of 28%, 26%, 26%, and 23% respectively [3][9]. - The net profit is expected to be negative RMB 168 million in 2024, positive RMB 1,485 million in 2025, negative RMB 73 million in 2026, and positive RMB 27 million in 2027 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.16 in 2024, 1.38 in 2025, -0.07 in 2026, and 0.03 in 2027 [3][10]. Business Overview - The company has established a global payment network, serving over 590,000 clients with a total transaction payment volume (TPV) of RMB 3.3 trillion in 2024 [4][25]. - The company’s digital payment services include both global and domestic payment solutions, with global payments accounting for approximately 60% of total revenue [25][30]. - The company is expanding its value-added services, which are expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates projected at 50%, 35%, and 30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. Market Potential - The cross-border e-commerce and export trade markets in China are expected to continue expanding, with the total export value projected to reach nearly RMB 47 trillion by 2027 [46]. - The demand for cross-border payment solutions is increasing as traditional foreign trade embraces digitalization and online operations [46][52]. - The cross-border payment service market in China is projected to grow from RMB 4.6 trillion in 2022 to RMB 14.1 trillion by 2027, with a CAGR of 25.2% [52][56].

在2025年6月，全球对数字货币的关注度迎来了显著增长。 其中，券商研究领域的热度尤为显著，仅在一周的时间内，即6月15日至21日，国内16家极具影响力的机构纷纷发布超过24份关于稳定币的专题研究报 告，内容涵盖了宏观政策、跨境支付、区块链技术等多个维度的深入分析。 中国人民银行发布了关于《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）》的公开征求意见通知，其中明确了CIPS参与者的账户管理、注资、资金结算 等具体流程。 随着香港《稳定币条例》预计于8月生效，蚂蚁、京东等科技巨头加快了牌照申请的步伐。在市场表现方面，一些A股稳定币概念股在一个月内的涨幅超 过了60%，而跨境支付通系统的上线更是进一步促进了数字人民币的国际化进程。 美国参议院以68票赞成、30票反对的结果通过了《GENIUS稳定币法案》，这是美国历史上第一个经过两院审议通过的针对稳定币的专项监管立法，目前 该法案已进入众议院审议阶段。 在我看来，稳定币的内涵既融合了数字货币的便捷性，又继承了传统货币的稳定性，充当着数字资产与实体资产之间桥梁的角色。 目前，稳定币的产业链已相对完善，大致可分为两个层次： 一级市场发行层和二级市场流通层。 在一级市场发行 ...

Core Insights - The cancellation of the T86 exemption policy by the U.S. has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce, pushing sellers to seek new markets while facing increased operational challenges [1][2][5] - Companies like SHEIN and Temu, which previously benefited from the exemption, are now experiencing a decline in user engagement and are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets [2][3] - Emerging markets such as Japan, Europe, and Latin America are being considered for expansion due to their growth potential, although challenges like compliance and logistics remain [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has reduced the tax exemption for small packages, leading to a shift in the business model for cross-border sellers [1][2] - SHEIN and Temu have seen significant drops in daily active users, with SHEIN's U.S. monthly active users decreasing by 30% in May compared to March [1][2] - The cancellation of the exemption policy has forced companies to adapt quickly, with many looking towards markets like Japan, which offers lower logistics costs and a high consumer acceptance rate [3][4] Group 2: Regional Opportunities - Japan is emerging as a preferred market due to its proximity, high consumer income, and low return rates, making it attractive for cross-border sellers [3][4] - The European market presents strong consumer purchasing power but comes with complex compliance requirements, such as VAT registration [4] - Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, is showing rapid growth in e-commerce, with expected revenue growth rates of 17.6% and 19% respectively [4][5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The shift from fully managed to semi-managed models increases operational burdens on sellers, requiring them to handle logistics and customs themselves [7] - The need for local warehousing and the associated costs pose significant challenges, especially in distant markets like Latin America [4][6] - Companies must now focus on localizing their operations and understanding consumer behavior to remain competitive in the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 39.00, representing a 7% upside from the current price of RMB 31.92 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company has established a cross-border payment subsidiary, NovaPay, and obtained a USA MSB license, which lays the foundation for its cross-border payment operations [5][11]. - The MSB license allows the company to legally operate in various currency-related services, including currency exchange, remittance, and digital currency transactions [12]. - The report highlights the promising cross-border payment market driven by RMB internationalization and the increasing demand for localized payment solutions as Chinese enterprises expand overseas [13]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials indicate a revenue increase from RMB 8,250 million in 2023 to RMB 11,705 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow significantly from RMB 1,004 million in 2023 to RMB 1,916 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 22.0% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is set at RMB 1.30 for 2025, RMB 1.52 for 2026, and RMB 1.86 for 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for 2025 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The computer industry continues to follow core trends of AI, localization, and robotics, with significant developments from Huawei, Hong Kong's digital asset policies, and Xiaomi's product launches [3][18] - Huawei's Developer Conference introduced HarmonyOS 6 and new AI cloud services, marking a new phase for the HarmonyOS ecosystem [3][18] - Hong Kong's Digital Asset Development Policy 2.0 aims to establish the region as a global hub for digital assets, emphasizing blockchain's role in enhancing financial transactions [3][19] - Xiaomi's YU7 model achieved remarkable pre-order success, indicating strong market demand and the company's commitment to R&D investment [3][20] Summary by Relevant Sections Huawei Developer Conference - The conference showcased HarmonyOS 6, with over 40 devices now running the system and more than 9000 applications in development [3][18] Hong Kong Digital Asset Policy - The new policy aims to create a diverse digital asset ecosystem, enhancing Hong Kong's position as a leading international financial center [3][19] Xiaomi Product Launch - Xiaomi's YU7 model received over 200,000 pre-orders within 3 minutes, highlighting its market impact and the company's future R&D investment plans [3][20] Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights key companies in the sector, including Empyrean Technology, Dameng Data, Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Newland Digital Technology, Jiangsu Tongxingbao, Kingdee International, and Huhu Information [3][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, recommending stocks such as Baidu, Huawei, and others, with an "Outperform" rating for the recommended targets [5][10][6]. Core Insights - Baidu and Huawei's open-source initiatives are expected to significantly promote the adoption of foundation models, lowering the barriers for R&D and application in AI technology [11][12]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved 7 national standards aimed at standardizing AI and digital services, which will enhance competitiveness and market opportunities for companies in the computer industry [12][13]. - The China Internet Association has initiated standards for algorithm management, which will facilitate the governance of recommendation algorithms and promote compliance within internet platform enterprises [13]. Summary by Sections Open-Source Initiatives - On June 30, Baidu and Huawei announced the open-sourcing of various models, including Baidu's Wenxin 4.5 series and Huawei's Pangu models, which will lower the R&D and application thresholds for AI technologies [11][10]. National Standards - The report highlights the approval of 7 national standards by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which will support the digital economy and enhance the interconnectivity of the computer industry [12][10]. Algorithm Management Standards - The initiation of algorithm management standards by the China Internet Association is expected to advance platform algorithm governance, focusing on compliance and security measures [13][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected relative return exceeding the benchmark by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [4][21]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has revised the CIPS system rules to enhance the framework for cross-border RMB payments, aiming to facilitate the integration of payment channels and improve clearing efficiency [7][4]. - The updated rules expand the scope of CIPS operations to include additional activities approved by the central bank, thereby supporting the growth and functionality of the CIPS system [7][4]. - The Cross-border Pay Link, launched in Hong Kong, allows for real-time, cost-effective remittances between Mainland China and Hong Kong, significantly improving the efficiency of cross-border transactions [7][4]. Summary by Sections CIPS System Rule Updates - The People's Bank of China released a draft for public comment on the CIPS system rules, focusing on account management, business processing, settlement mechanisms, and risk management [4][7]. - The revisions aim to adapt the rules established in 2018 to current business developments and participant needs, enhancing management standards for CIPS participants [4][7]. Cross-border Payment Innovations - The Cross-border Pay Link, which became operational on June 22, connects the fast payment systems of Mainland China and Hong Kong, allowing residents to conduct cross-border remittances efficiently [4][7]. - This system reduces the remittance process time and costs by minimizing intermediary steps and directly connecting payment infrastructures [4][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cross-border payment service providers such as Newland Digital Technology, Xgd Inc, Lakala Payment, and Yeahka Limited, as well as financial IT service providers like Yusys Technologies and Sinodata [7][4].