Summary of Conference Call on Power Equipment Industry Industry Overview - The power equipment industry is experiencing significant changes, particularly in high-voltage equipment demand domestically and supply shortages overseas. Domestic demand for high-voltage switches is high, while high-voltage transformer supply is sufficient. Conversely, overseas markets face a shortage of high-voltage transformers, with lower demand for high-voltage switches compared to domestic needs [1][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Demand and Supply Dynamics**: - Post-2022, global high-voltage power equipment supply decreased by approximately 15% due to the pandemic. However, in 2023, the acceleration of new energy construction has led to a surge in demand for supporting booster substations, which is 4-5 times that of traditional power stations. Overall demand is expected to grow by 20%-30% due to grid upgrade investment plans [1][10]. - Data centers are significantly increasing the demand for power equipment, requiring substations rated between 200-500 kV, with faster delivery times. A single GW data center typically requires 8-10 transformers, with North America's 40 GW installation capacity corresponding to 30%-40% of traditional demand [1][11]. - **Revenue Projections**: - By 2025, total revenue in the power equipment sector is projected to reach 2 trillion RMB, encompassing domestic grid markets, non-grid systems, and overseas markets. The investment in the transmission and transformation segment is expected to be 160 billion RMB, with 90 billion RMB allocated for equipment [1][12]. - **Investment Framework**: - The core investment framework for the power equipment sector includes six business categories: intelligence, high-voltage equipment, medium-voltage equipment, meters, materials, and low-voltage electrical appliances. Each category plays a distinct role within the power system [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **Siyuan Electric**: - Siyuan Electric is entering the high-voltage switch supplier system for 750 kV and above and is actively expanding its overseas market for high-voltage transformers. The company is expected to see significant growth in North American orders, projected to exceed 1.5 billion RMB by 2026 [3][19]. - The company aims to increase market share through enhanced switch offerings domestically and by capitalizing on the high demand for high-voltage transformers overseas [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - **Mid to Low-End Products**: - The market for mid to low-end products, such as distribution equipment and meters, is characterized by low barriers to entry and intense competition. However, in specialized scenarios like data centers and rail transit, mid-range components can achieve gross margins exceeding 35% due to higher safety and reliability requirements [5]. - **Solid-State Transformers**: - Solid-state transformers are emerging as a significant trend, offering advantages such as space-saving, reduced copper and energy consumption. They are seen as the ultimate solution for data centers due to their modular design and rapid load adjustment capabilities [20]. Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: - The solid-state transformer sector faces risks including challenges in overseas certification for domestic manufacturers, the need for technological breakthroughs due to the small capacity of current solid-state devices, and intense competition leading to price pressures [22]. Conclusion - The power equipment industry is poised for growth driven by new energy demands and technological advancements. Companies like Siyuan Electric are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, particularly in high-voltage equipment and solid-state transformer markets. However, investors should remain cautious of the competitive landscape and potential risks associated with emerging technologies.

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 电力设备 光伏产品取消出口退税，江苏超 800MW 海上风电项目获核准 光伏：两部门宣布取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，硅料电池组件价格上涨。近 日财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告：自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日 起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。适时降低或取消光伏产品的出口退税，有助于 推动国外市场价格理性回归，降低我国面临的贸易摩擦的风险。据安泰科统计，本 周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 5.0-6.3 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.92 万元/吨， 周环比上涨 9.83%。n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 5.0-6.4 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.58 万元/吨，环比涨幅为 10.5%。据 Infolink，本周 N 型电池片价格如下：183N、 210RN 与 210N 均价再度上调，本周上升至每瓦 0.39 元人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Siyuan Electric has shown a positive trend with a 2.09% increase on January 9, 2025, reflecting strong market interest and financial performance indicators [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 9, 2025, Siyuan Electric's stock price reached 156.08 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 121.91 billion yuan [1] - The stock has increased by 0.96% year-to-date and has seen a significant 45.08% increase over the past 60 days [1] - The trading volume on January 9 was 2.46 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.26% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Siyuan Electric reported a revenue of 13.827 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.86% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.191 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.94% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Siyuan Electric increased to 21,000, up by 5.11% from the previous period [2] - The largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 165 million shares, which is an increase of 10.4543 million shares compared to the last period [3] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 4.44% to 29,059 shares [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the power equipment sector, driven by the rapid development of AIDC and ongoing investments in grid construction [3]. Core Insights - The power system is expected to undergo a value and ecological transformation due to the surge in computing power demand driven by AI technology and applications [3]. - The report identifies two main demand drivers (increased electricity demand and enhanced power quality requirements) and three key sectors (generation, grid, and user) that will reshape the power system's value and ecology [3]. - The demand for gas turbines and energy storage solutions is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of data centers and the need for reliable power supply [3]. - The global grid construction demand is increasing, particularly in regions with aging infrastructure, leading to heightened investment from utility companies [3]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong channel resources and technological advantages in capitalizing on these trends [3]. Summary by Sections AI Applications and Power System Transformation - The rapid development of AI applications is reshaping the value of the power system, with significant implications for electricity demand and supply efficiency [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for technological upgrades in power supply systems to meet the increasing demands of AI-driven applications [3]. Generation Side: Increased Electricity Demand - The global electricity demand from data centers is projected to reach 415 TWh in 2024 and 945 TWh by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 15% [16]. - The report notes that the demand for gas turbines is rising as data centers explore on-site generation solutions to enhance energy efficiency and supply resilience [22][23]. - Companies like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are experiencing a surge in gas turbine orders, indicating a robust market outlook [27][71]. Grid Side: Growing Construction Demand - Aging power grids in developed economies are under pressure, necessitating increased investment in infrastructure upgrades [54][56]. - The U.S. is launching initiatives to accelerate grid infrastructure projects to meet rising electricity demands driven by AI [58]. - European utility companies are also ramping up investments in grid infrastructure to address similar challenges [65]. User Side: Power Supply Technology Evolution - The report highlights a shift towards high-voltage and direct current (DC) power supply systems in data centers to accommodate rising power demands [81][90]. - Major tech companies are transitioning to DC power distribution systems to improve efficiency and support higher power densities [100][104].

Core Insights - The report from Huaxi Securities indicates that the demand for electrical equipment is entering a prosperous cycle driven by the rapid development of AIDC (AI Data Center) and continuous growth in grid construction investment [1][2] Group 1: Power Generation Side - The expansion of data centers is leading to an increasing contradiction between power supply and demand, necessitating enhanced power solutions, particularly for gas turbines and energy storage [3] - Gas turbines are currently the preferred choice in North America to alleviate power supply issues, with industry demand on the rise [3] - Owners can accelerate power supply assurance and rapid grid connection or expansion by configuring energy storage systems due to their construction cycle and supply capability advantages [3] Group 2: Grid Side - There is an increasing demand for global grid construction, especially in regions like Europe and North America where infrastructure is relatively weak [4] - Aging grid systems are putting pressure on the electrical grid, prompting U.S. utility companies and some European grid operators to increase investment in grid infrastructure [4] - Leading overseas power equipment companies such as Eaton, Hyundai Electric, and Siemens Energy have substantial orders on hand, while domestic companies are also increasing grid investment and expanding overseas [4] Group 3: User Side - The surge in AI computing power is driving AIDC towards high power consumption, which raises the requirements for power reliability and efficiency [5] - The power supply architecture is evolving towards higher voltage and direct current systems, with server power technology continuously iterating [5] - The transition from PowerShelf to PowerRack in server power systems is occurring against a backdrop of increasing power demands, suggesting that companies with technological advantages are likely to benefit [5] Group 4: Beneficiary Targets - Key beneficiaries include transformer and SST manufacturers such as Suyuan Electric, Jinpan Technology, Igor, Huaming Equipment, Shunma Electric, Sifang Co., and China West Electric [6] - Gas turbine and related component manufacturers include Dongfang Electric, Boying Welding, and Harbin Electric [6] - AI power companies include Xinle Energy, Keda, Magmeter, Oulu Tong, Zhongheng Electric, Hewei Electric, and Xinrui Technology [6] - Energy storage and related component manufacturers include Sunshine Power, Shangen Electric, Canadian Solar, CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, Xinwanda, and Zhongchuang Innovation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The power grid equipment sector in China is experiencing a sustained high level of activity, with significant investments and structural changes expected in 2026, driven by domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment - China Xidian (601179.SH) recently won a bid for a power transmission project worth over 1.4 billion yuan, marking a strong start to the year [1][2]. - The stock price of China Xidian approached its historical high of 11.08 yuan, reflecting positive market sentiment [1][3]. - The overall power grid equipment index rose by 33% in 2025, reaching a historical peak, supported by increased investments from the State Grid [2][5]. Group 2: Structural Changes and Growth Drivers - The power grid equipment industry is entering a phase of stable growth with structural differentiation, where domestic transmission and transformation and overseas power equipment exports are expected to be the main growth engines [1][6]. - The total market size for domestic power grid equipment is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [3][4]. - The bidding amount for transmission and transformation equipment reached 91.9 billion yuan in 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the approval of four key direct current lines is anticipated, which will further enhance the project pipeline for related companies [6][7]. - The demand for solid-state transformers is expected to rise significantly, with efficiency improvements over traditional transformers, marking 2026 as a critical year for their introduction [7]. - The ongoing structural changes in the power grid investment landscape are expected to provide a solid foundation for the performance of leading companies in the sector [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overseas market for transformers is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased capital expenditure on global power grid projects and the restructuring of the transformer supply chain, although it is not characterized by a severe supply shortage [1][5]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - China's transformer exports surged to 43.995 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% in the first eleven months of 2025 [2]. - The demand for transformers is being driven by the aging power grid infrastructure in Europe and the U.S., with 31% of transmission and 46% of distribution facilities in the U.S. being past their service life [3]. - The rapid development of renewable energy sources and the construction of green energy power stations are expanding the market for transformers [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Orders - Companies in the transformer industry are reporting full order books, particularly those with a high proportion of overseas market share, benefiting from the current market conditions [5]. - TBEA reported domestic contracts worth 41.5 billion yuan and international product contracts worth 1.24 billion USD, with the latter showing over 80% year-on-year growth [6]. - The overseas market for transformers is growing steadily, with companies like Yaskawa Electric and Igor seeing increased demand driven by AI and energy storage applications [6][7]. Group 3: International Expansion and Production Capacity - Companies are actively expanding their overseas production capabilities to meet diverse regional requirements and gain market access [7]. - Igor's overseas factories are operational, with significant production capacity for new energy transformers, enhancing their ability to meet customer demands [7]. - TBEA has secured a major order in Saudi Arabia worth approximately 2.4 billion USD, highlighting the growth opportunities in the European and Middle Eastern markets [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Solid State Transformers (SST) are emerging as a new focus area, driven by advancements in power electronics and the growing demand from data centers [9][10]. - Companies like Jinpan Technology and Igor are investing in the development of SSTs, with plans for commercial deployment in the coming years [9][10]. - TBEA is also advancing its SST product line, aiming to address the challenges faced by data centers in terms of energy efficiency and operational effectiveness [10].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports a significant increase in solar wafer and battery prices by December 2025, primarily due to rising costs of key materials such as polysilicon and silver paste, along with some influence from anti-involution policies [1] - The establishment of a polysilicon industry consolidation platform is expected in early December 2025, with policy-driven industry consolidation anticipated to occur in 2026 [1] - The firm has given "overweight" ratings to GCL-Poly Energy (03800) and Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) [1] Group 2 - Goldwind Technology (02208) H-shares and A-shares saw price increases of 17% and 18% respectively from December 31, 2025, to January 6, 2026, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 4% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3% [1] - The price surge is attributed to market expectations regarding the value release of Goldwind's 4.14% stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace, which has IPO plans [1] - Since December 31, 2025, Goldwind's market capitalization has increased by approximately 14 billion RMB, with an estimated valuation multiple for Blue Arrow Aerospace reaching 88 times the 2024 fiscal year price-to-book ratio [1] Group 3 - Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ) has signed a three-year memorandum of understanding for energy storage cooperation with CATL (03750), with a total scale of 50GWh [2] - This collaboration demonstrates Siyuan Electric's ambition to develop its energy storage system business, which could support annual revenues of approximately 20 billion RMB once fully operational [2] - Preliminary estimates suggest that this 50GWh partnership may provide over 10% upside to Siyuan Electric's market consensus earnings forecast for the fiscal years 2027 to 2028 [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports a significant increase in solar wafer and battery prices by December 2025, driven by rising costs of key materials such as polysilicon and silver paste, along with policies against internal competition [1] - The establishment of a polysilicon industry consolidation platform is expected by early December 2025, with policy-driven consolidation anticipated to occur in 2026 [1] - The firm maintains an "overweight" rating on GCL-Poly Energy (03800) and Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) [1] Group 2 - Goldwind Technology (02208) H-shares and A-shares saw price increases of 17% and 18% respectively from December 31, 2025, to January 6, 2026, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and Shenzhen Component Index [1] - The market's expectation of value release from Goldwind's 4.14% stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace, which has IPO plans, is believed to be a key factor in this price surge [1] - Goldwind's market capitalization increased by approximately 14 billion RMB since December 31, 2025, with an estimated valuation multiple for Blue Arrow Aerospace reaching 88 times the 2024 fiscal year price-to-book ratio [1] Group 3 - Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ) signed a three-year memorandum of understanding for energy storage cooperation with CATL (03750), with a total scale of 50GWh [2] - This collaboration indicates Siyuan Electric's ambition to develop its energy storage system business, potentially supporting annual revenues of around 20 billion RMB upon full capacity [2] - The partnership is expected to provide over a 10% upside to Siyuan Electric's market consensus earnings forecast for the fiscal years 2027 to 2028 [2]

Core Insights - The wind and solar storage industry is expected to recover profitability amidst oversupply by 2025, with overseas markets becoming a highlight for growth [1][2] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new cycle in 2026 driven by "anti-involution" and technological resonance, focusing on new technology commercialization, global expansion, and supply-demand improvements [1][2] Group 1: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, the wind and solar storage sector will still face oversupply, but profitability is expected to recover due to anti-involution and increased overseas sales [2] - By December 31, 2025, the CSI 300 Index is projected to increase by 17.66%, the ChiNext Index by 49.57%, and the Electric New Energy Index by 39.47%, ranking 7th out of 30 industries [2] - The implementation of Document No. 136 will accelerate the entry of new energy into the market, with 2026 marking the beginning of a new cycle for the 14th Five-Year Plan in new energy [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - The demand for large-scale energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with North America's AIDC storage demand projected to rise from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GW by 2030, representing a CAGR of approximately 84% [3] - The demand for green electricity direct connection is anticipated to increase from 78 GWh in 2025 to 475 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of about 44% [3] - European markets are expected to see concentrated deployment in the next 3-5 years, with strong demand for industrial and commercial storage in Europe, Australia, and emerging markets [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power installations are projected to reach 110-120 GW for onshore and 12-16 GW for offshore by 2026, with the 14th Five-Year Plan potentially exceeding 120 GW per year for onshore and 15 GW per year for offshore [4] - The global offshore wind market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% over the next 25-30 years [4] - The industry is experiencing a stabilization in onshore turbine prices and limited downward pressure on offshore prices, with increased overseas orders expected to boost profitability for manufacturers [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is set for profitability recovery driven by anti-involution, with new technology iterations and global expansion leading growth [5] - China is expected to lead the market, with installations projected between 230-250 GW in 2026, supported by recovering demand in Europe and the U.S. and emerging markets gaining momentum [5] - Key technological advancements include the expansion of BC battery capacity, mass production of perovskite technology, and breakthroughs in silver reduction techniques, which are expected to lower costs and improve margins [5]