证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3403.95 | 0.86 | | 深证成指 | 10354.22 | 0.64 | | 创业板指 | 2083.14 | 1.01 | | 科创 50 | 1013.77 | 0.41 | | 北证 50 | 1420.93 | 1.08 | | 沪深 300 | 3943.21 | 1.21 | 晨会纪要 A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 653884 | 511581 | 12.02 | 1.24 | | 深证成指 | 219938 | 186230 | 20.25 | 2.14 | | 创业板指 | 58598 | 46346 | 27.21 | 3.79 | | 科创 5 ...

证券研究报告 行业深度 商贸零售&社会服务 高性价比国产大模型应用落地加速，探索 AI+消费投资机会 AI+消费专题报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 评级 同步大市 维持 | 重点股票 | 2024A | | 2025E | | 2026E | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍）EPS（元） PE（倍） | | | | | | | | 小商品城 | 0.56 | 28.81 | 0.72 | 22.35 | 0.92 | 17.63 | 增持 | | 学大教育 | 1.47 | 36.54 | 2.07 | 25.97 | 2.66 | 20.27 | 增持 | 执业证书编号:S0530522020001 zhangxiyue@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 商贸零售行业事件点评：离境退税政策优化升 级，释放入境消费新动能 2025-04-14 此报告 考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 资料来源： iFinD ，财信证券 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M ...

Group 1 - Beijing has issued "Twenty Measures for the Physical and Mental Health of Primary and Secondary School Students," aiming to enhance students' physical fitness and psychological well-being through various collective activities and support mechanisms [1] - The "Double Teacher Classroom" project meeting was held in Beijing's Miyun District, focusing on resource-based dual-teacher teaching observation and collaboration between districts [2] - Xi'an has released guidelines for the admission of technology-related off-campus training institutions, regulating their approval and operational behaviors [3] Group 2 - Xueda Education has repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares, accounting for 1.07% of its total share capital, with a total payment of 64.707 million yuan [4] - Dou Shen Education has reached a financing balance of 148 million yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year with a net buy of 3.1528 million yuan [5]

随着全球经济逐渐复苏和对职业技能需求的增长，职业教育行业正迎来新的发展机遇。截至目前，我国已经建成世界上最大规模的职业教育体系，每年为 社会培养约 1000 万高素质劳动者。 在这样的大背景下，职业教育行业内各公司的发展状况备受瞩目。 2025 年一季度，职业教育行业在政策支持与市场竞争中呈现出差异化发展态势。从已披露的财报来看，职教公司在收入增长、盈利表现、业务布局及风 险挑战上各有侧重。下面通过对ST传智、华图山鼎、科德教育、学大教育、中公教育、粉笔六家职业教育公司的深入分析，探讨它们在市场中的表现及 其未来发展前景。 收入增长与盈利表现——六家公司财报概览 | | | | 六家教育公司收入增长与盈利表现 | | | 三明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 报告期 | 营业收入 | 营业收入同比增长 | 净利润 | 净利润同比增长 | 市值 | | ST传智 | 2025年第一季度 | 7238.69万元 | 42.14% | -536.32万元 | 66.49% | 24.55亿元 | | 类图川醋 | 2025年第一季度 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, with the aim of using the repurchased shares for equity incentives and/or cancellation, having already repurchased 1.07% of its total share capital as of May 13, 2025 [2][3][4] Summary by Sections Share Repurchase Plan - The company approved a share repurchase plan on January 17, 2025, allowing for the repurchase of shares using self-owned and/or self-raised funds, with a total fund amount between RMB 110 million and RMB 150 million [2] - The maximum repurchase price is set at RMB 66.80 per share, with a repurchase period not exceeding 12 months from the approval date [2] Progress of Share Repurchase - As of May 13, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 1,298,300 shares, representing 1.07% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 64.71 million [2][3] - The highest transaction price recorded was RMB 52.74 per share, while the lowest was RMB 48.50 per share [2] Use of Repurchased Shares - The repurchased shares will primarily be used for cancellation, with an initial cancellation amount of RMB 60 million planned [3] - The company has completed the cancellation of the repurchased shares as of March 26, 2025, and will proceed with necessary registration changes [3] Future Plans - The company intends to continue the share repurchase plan based on market conditions and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required by relevant laws and regulations [4]

证券代码：000526 证券简称：学大教育 公告编号：2025-040 学大（厦门）教育科技集团股份有限公司 关于回购公司股份比例达到 1%的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 学大（厦门）教育科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年12 月30日召开第十届董事会第二十次会议、第十届监事会第十六次会议，于2025年1 月17日召开的2025年第一次临时股东会，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的 议案》，同意公司使用自有资金和/或自筹资金以集中竞价交易的方式回购公司股 份，用于股权激励和/或注销，回购股份的种类为公司发行的人民币普通股（A股）。 本次回购股份的资金总额不低于人民币11,000万元（含）且不超过人民币15,000万 元（含），本次回购股份的价格为不超过人民币66.80元/股（含），回购期限为自 公司股东会审议通过回购方案之日起不超过12个月。具体内容详见公司于2025年1 月2日在《中国证券报》《证券时报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的 《关于回购公司股份方案的公告》（公告编号：2024- ...

Summary of High School Education Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The high school education industry is expected to experience growth over the next 7-8 years due to government policies aimed at increasing the supply of high school degrees and improving overall education levels [1][2] - The government work report in 2025 emphasizes the expansion of high school degree supply, regulation of private education, and the promotion of vocational and academic integration [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - The push for vocational and academic integration aims to meet the demands of industrial upgrades, alleviate educational anxiety, and promote social equity [1][5] - The pursuit of higher education remains strong among residents, with the number of applicants for college entrance exams reaching new highs, growing by 8.21% in 2023 despite 80% of the eligible population already participating [1][7] - The employment rate for vocational schools is relatively high, but there are significant salary disparities across different regions, with eastern developed areas having per-student funding of 40,000 to 60,000 yuan compared to 12,000 yuan in less developed regions [1][9] - In 2023, education spending accounted for approximately 15% of the general public budget, with regular high school education funding making up about 10% of total education expenditure [1][10] Investment Opportunities - Notable investment targets in the current environment include private school companies such as Tianli International Holdings and Kevin Education, as well as educational training companies like Xueda Education, which are well-positioned to benefit from policy incentives [1][6] - The private high school market is projected to reach 163.5 billion yuan by 2025 and 394 billion yuan by 2033, indicating a robust growth trajectory [1][13] Additional Insights - The proportion of the population aged 25 and above with high school education in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating substantial room for improvement [1][11] - The number of students in regular high schools is increasing, while the proportion of students in vocational schools is decreasing, with private high schools rising from 17% in 2011 to 30% in 2023 [1][10] - Xueda Education has shown improved profitability post-restructuring, while Kevin Education is expected to turn profitable this year after narrowing losses [1][14] - Tianli International Holdings boasts a high undergraduate admission rate of 80%, with many students entering top 50 global universities, showcasing its strong growth potential [1][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [1]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry is experiencing a slowdown in overall revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 237.785 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 59.904 billion yuan, showing a minimal growth of 0.07% [4][11]. - The net profit for the industry is under pressure, with a significant decline of 23.24% year-on-year to 9.642 billion yuan in 2024, and a 7.1% decrease to 3.534 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025. This is attributed to increased price sensitivity among domestic tourists [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sub-sectors within the consumer services industry are experiencing revenue growth without corresponding profit increases, particularly in the scenic spots and human resources service sectors [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance - The consumer services industry is seeing a stabilization in service consumption revenue, with a notable slowdown in growth compared to the explosive rebound in 2023. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 237.785 billion yuan, with a slight increase in the first quarter of 2025 [11][14]. - The report notes that tourists are becoming more price-sensitive, leading to a decline in net profits for tourism-related companies [11][14]. 2. Key Sub-Industry Performance 2.1 Scenic Spots - The scenic spots sector achieved a revenue of 22.866 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 3.34%, with a net profit of 1.808 billion yuan, up 26.27% [15][24]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 4.792 billion yuan, a growth of 3.65%, but net profit decreased by 13.06% to 0.356 billion yuan [17][30]. 2.2 Education - The education sector's revenue reached 34.106 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.61%, while net profit was 0.843 billion yuan, down 20.68% [36][40]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased to 7.935 billion yuan, a growth of 8.65%, with net profit at 0.346 billion yuan, down 7.93% [36][42]. 2.3 Hotels - The hotel sector reported total revenue of 24.964 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.09%, with net profit at 1.595 billion yuan, down 9.76% [46][48]. - In the first quarter of 2025, hotel revenue was 5.435 billion yuan, a decline of 8.09%, and net profit fell to 0.125 billion yuan, down 54.87% [46][55]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that while profits are under pressure due to macroeconomic factors, the gradual recovery of the domestic economy post-September 2024 may boost demand. It recommends focusing on sectors like education and human resources services that are likely to benefit from policy support [4][14]. - Specific companies to watch include Xueda Education (000526) and Keri International (300662) in the education and human resources sectors, respectively [4][14]. In the tourism sector, companies like Songcheng Performance (300144) and Changbai Mountain (603099) are highlighted for their potential recovery [4][14].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **New Consumption Sector**: Companies like Yicheng, Zhengkang Oral Care, and Jingbo Bio are highlighted for their ability to drive growth through new product launches, achieving over 30% growth. Stable growth companies such as Runben, Perfect Diary, Mao Ge Ping, and Juzi Bio are also noted for their resilient stock performance [1][2] - **Food and Beverage Sector**: Key companies to watch include Bailong Chuangyuan (food additives), Yanjinpuzi (konjac products), and Three Squirrels. Traditional growth stocks like Dongpeng Special Drink, Yanjing Beer, and strong performers like Qingdao Beer and Nongfu Spring are also recommended. The liquor sector is expected to bottom out gradually from late 2025 to mid-2026, with limited downside risk [1][4] - **High School Education Sector**: Investment opportunities are identified due to policy changes increasing high school enrollment ratios. Companies like Tianli International Holdings and Xueda Education are noted for their low valuations and significant investment potential [5] - **Emotional Value Consumption**: Focus on trendy toys and gold jewelry, with domestic gold jewelry growth exceeding market expectations. These sectors are seen as having good investment value despite their valuations being comparable to general growth companies [6] Core Insights and Arguments - **New Consumption Trends**: The beauty and snack sectors are expected to thrive, with 2025 being a pivotal year for beauty products. Companies with strong product launch capabilities are emphasized for their stock resilience [2] - **Traditional Retail Adjustments**: Opportunities arise from adjustments in traditional retail, with a focus on companies with high dividends and reliable performance, such as Chongqing Department Store and Dashang Group [3][8] - **Home Appliance Sector**: The small appliance market, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is anticipated to see significant breakthroughs by early 2026. Traditional appliance companies like Midea, Gree, and Haier are highlighted for their overseas expansion strategies [9][11] - **Textile and Apparel Sector**: Investment recommendations include Anta Sports and Xtep International, focusing on outdoor and high-end apparel segments. Companies like Hailan Home and Luolai Life are noted for their stable operations [17] Additional Important Insights - **Emerging Product Trends**: New products in emerging sectors such as millet products, AI glasses, AR glasses, and electronic cigarettes are gaining traction, indicating strong industry trends [14] - **Pet Market Growth**: The pet market in China is thriving, with significant growth in the number of exhibitors at the Shanghai Pet Expo. Domestic brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recognized for their innovative products [25] - **Export Market Expectations**: The export market is showing weak expectations but strong realities, with companies like Zhejiang Ziran and Gongchuang Turf performing well in Europe [15] This summary encapsulates the key insights and investment opportunities across various sectors as discussed in the conference call records.

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The potential weakening of the economy is about to be validated, and expectations for policy implementation will take time to materialize[1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have approached a "ceiling" since April 2, indicating a need for further evidence to support upward movement[1] - The average overseas revenue share of the top 10 performing secondary industries in A-shares since April 2 is 10%, while the bottom 10 is 8%, suggesting a need for positive trade signals or internal demand policies for further recovery[1] Group 2: Market Style Shift - The recent regulatory framework encourages a shift towards financial, stable, and large-cap stocks, as evidenced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission's new guidelines[2] - 60.8% of actively managed equity funds have underperformed their benchmarks by over 10% in the past three years, indicating a potential shift to benchmark alignment to avoid underperformance[2] Group 3: Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector's returns are derived from net profit growth, increased dividend payout ratios, and valuation improvements, with traditional consumer assets benefiting from stable business models[3] - Three key areas of focus in the consumer sector include product positioning, changing consumer demographics, and evolving consumption patterns[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors include consumer industries with stable returns (e.g., home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics) and undervalued financial sectors (e.g., banks, insurance)[4] - Resource and capital goods sectors (e.g., copper, aluminum, machinery) are expected to hold value in the context of global economic restructuring[4] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include domestic economic growth falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, and measurement errors in data analysis[4]