投资者对此感到不安。标准普尔指数23日下跌超过1%，其软件和服务指数跌至去年4月美国总统特朗普 宣布"解放日"关税以来的最低水平。科技股受到打击，纳斯达克综合指数一度下跌超过1%。 24日，美国白宫经济顾问委员会代理主席皮埃尔·亚雷德表示，Citrini Research近日发布的报告是"一篇 有趣的科幻小说"。 智通财经记者 南博一 美国一份病毒式传播且完全基于猜测的报告，让美国股市23日遭遇一波AI恐慌。 这篇名为《2028年全球智能危机》的报告，由鲜为人知的美国公司Citrini Research发布在在线写作平台 Substack上，虚构了从现在开始到2028年6月结束的情景，称届时美国失业率将突破10%，"占领硅谷"运 动的参与者将在AI企业OpenAI和Anthropic的办公场所外扎营。一系列广泛使用AI代理的事件将冲击软 件公司，并向外扩散，波及到私人信贷和抵押贷款，导致经济陷入恶性循环，出现螺旋式下滑。 据《卫报》报道，Citrini设定的情景如下： AI代理消除所有中介服务 情景始于AI代理实现能力大幅提升。Citrini提到了Anthropic的Claude Code、OpenAI的Co ...

Core Insights - The market's fear regarding AI disrupting traditional industries may have peaked, with "HALO" trades (heavy assets, low obsolescence) being the best hedge for investors still concerned about AI impacts [1][8] Group 1: Market Sentiment and AI Impact - The recent briefing by AI company Anthropic indicated a preference for "cooperation" between AI and existing software providers, contrasting previous fears of complete replacement, leading to a rebound in previously shorted software stocks [1][7] - Despite the S&P 500 index remaining stable since late October last year, extreme fund flows have caused unprecedented internal market divergence, with significant capital inflows into AI beneficiaries and semiconductor sectors while indiscriminately selling software assets [1][4] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - The divergence in stock performance has been extreme, with growth and value stocks experiencing a 24% return difference, and the S&P 500's technology and consumer discretionary sectors facing an 11% decline [4] - Defensive and cyclical sectors have seen significant gains, with industrials up 13%, consumer staples up 16%, materials up 22%, and energy up 25% during the same period [4] Group 3: Fund Flows and Positioning - Hedge funds have significantly increased their exposure to semiconductor and AI-related stocks, reaching the highest levels since 2020, while infrastructure software has been the most sold theme, dropping to the 0th percentile since 2020 [7] - Following the Anthropic briefing, there was a reassessment of extreme positions, with software stocks previously labeled as "at risk from AI" rebounding approximately 5% [7] Group 4: HALO Strategy - For investors who believe the "AI fear" has not peaked, Morgan Stanley recommends investing in HALO assets, which are characterized by high production capacity and low obsolescence [8][10] - The HALO basket has risen 28% over the past year, while stocks affected by AI disruption have fallen 43%, indicating a significant attractiveness of this strategy [10]

【文/观察者网专栏作者 关心】 最近，美国人工智能巨头Anthropic公开指控DeepSeek等三家中国AI企业，在科技圈掀起了不小的波 澜。这家美国企业声称，DeepSeek、月之暗面和MiniMax三家中国AI企业对其旗舰模型Claude发动了所 谓"工业级蒸馏攻击"，用1600万次请求、上万个虚假账户，系统性地"抽取"模型能力。消息一出，迅速 占领了各大科技媒体的头条。 Anthropic指责对手从Claude身上"偷"能力，却对自己从整个互联网"拿"知识的历史闭口不谈。他们强调 蒸馏出来的模型缺乏"安全护栏"会带来风险，却没解释凭什么只有他们有权定义什么是"必要的护栏"。 这种双重标准，说到底就是这样的霸权逻辑：规则由最强者制定，强者的行为是惯例，弱者的行为是攻 击。 有意思的是，Anthropic本想通过这份声明打击对手，却无意间成了开源AI最有力的广告。他们用自己 的行为向所有人证明：在闭源AI服务的架构下，你的隐私、你的自主权、你的知情权，都是无法保障 的。当一家公司可以随时以"安全"的名义监控你、评判你、惩罚你，所谓的"信任"就不再是一种美德， 而是一种风险。 Anthropic创始人和CE ...

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Anthropic launched "Cowork & Plugins for the Enterprise," an AI toolkit that integrates with popular office software like Microsoft Excel, PowerPoint, and Slack, allowing users to perform tasks without switching applications [3] - The tool has demonstrated significant efficiency improvements, such as reducing the time to write a 300-page clinical research report from months to just 10 minutes [3] - The report emphasizes that while AI applications are advancing, they are still in the exploratory phase and not yet at the stage of replacing professional software, indicating a positive outlook for rapid growth in the AI industry [3] Group 2: Tongwei Co., Ltd. Developments - Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced plans to acquire 100% of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, which will enhance its position in the polysilicon market [4] - Lihua Qingneng has established a production capacity of 150,000 to 200,000 tons of polysilicon, ranking sixth in the industry with low production costs due to new equipment [4] - The report suggests that the current model of industry consolidation is shifting back to individual company integration, which may lower the difficulty of industry consolidation and accelerate the exit of outdated capacities and companies [4] Group 3: Spotify Performance - Spotify reported a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU), surpassing 750 million with a net addition of 38 million in Q4 2025, while paid users reached 290 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [6] - The company's gross margin improved to 33.1%, and operating profit margin reached 15.5%, indicating a notable enhancement in profitability driven by subscription structure optimization and cost dilution [6] - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, Spotify maintains an optimistic outlook, expecting continued growth in MAU and paid users, with revenue projected at €4.5 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase excluding currency effects [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that major AI models both domestically and internationally are set to complete significant upgrades around the Spring Festival in 2026, indicating a robust demand for advanced models and a potential growth in computing power hardware [1][2]. Group 2 - Domestic AI models are undergoing intensive updates, with several releases from companies such as Zhiyuan, ByteDance, and Alibaba between January 27 and February 16, 2026 [2]. - Internationally, major model updates include OpenAI's GPT-5.3-Codex, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, all released in February 2026, showcasing enhanced capabilities [2]. Group 3 - The enhancement of model capabilities is leading to the emergence of intelligent agents and multimodal applications, with tools like OpenClaw evolving from simple chatbots to sophisticated office assistants [3]. - ByteDance's SeeDance 2.0 has significantly improved video generation efficiency, increasing the usable rate from 20% to 90%, which may drive the animation and film industries towards large-scale development [3]. Group 4 - The price adjustment by Zhiyuan for its GLM Coding Plan, including a 30% or more increase in subscription prices, reflects a growing market demand and indicates a supply bottleneck in computing power, suggesting ongoing benefits for the computing power industry [4].

目前估值高达3800亿美元的Anthropic，正积极争夺企业和日常用户的市场份额，与OpenAI、谷歌以及 埃隆.马斯克的xAI Corp.等巨头展开激烈竞争，以求在许多人眼中具有革命性的这项新技术领域占据主 导地位。 一位Anthropic的发言人称："我们从一开始就认识到，AI的发展速度和该领域的不确定性，要求我们必 须迅速迭代并不断完善我们的政策。" 该公司曾在2023年发布的《负责任的扩展政策》中承诺，将推迟任何可能带来危险的AI系统开发。然 而，在本周二发布的一篇博文中，Anthropic宣布更新其政策规则，明确表示如果公司认为自身相较于 竞争对手不具显著领先优势，将不再单方面延缓开发进程。 Anthropic在博文中坦言："当前的政策环境已转向优先考量人工智能的竞争力和经济增长，而在联邦层 面，关于安全性的讨论尚未取得实质性进展。" 以坚守人工智能安全准则而闻名的人工智能公司Anthropic，近日放宽了其核心安全政策，并表示此举 是为保持竞争力所必需的调整。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI capital expenditure continues to exceed expectations, with ongoing catalysts in the application sector, suggesting that the high prosperity of AI may persist. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to communication ETFs (515880), semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516), and technology innovation AI ETFs (589110) [1] - Major global AI model updates are frequent, with significant advancements from companies like Anthropic, Google, and domestic firms such as Zhipu AI and Alibaba, indicating a shift towards differentiated competition and potential for long-term profitability improvement [1] - The leading companies in large models are moving towards a differentiated competition route, with some firms raising prices alongside new model releases, suggesting a transition from "land grab" to a phase of "paying for quality" [1] Group 2 - Capital expenditure from overseas cloud providers for 2025 is projected to reach $410 billion, a 67% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure and benefiting upstream related companies [2] - Guidance for capital expenditure from major tech companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta for 2026 exceeds market expectations, reinforcing the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure [2] - The long-term outlook for domestic alternatives in the AI infrastructure sector is positive, supported by technological competition and policy backing [2]

在行业分布上，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)覆盖AI全产业链，从底层算力、中层技术到上层应用， 完整覆盖人工智能三大核心环节。 指数前十大重仓股，按AI细分赛道分类来看，光模块/通信占比21.14%（中际旭创、新易盛），AI芯片/ 处理器占比14.51%（寒武纪、澜起科技、豪威集团），AI服务器/算力占比4.70%（中科曙光），算法/ 大模型/NLP占比4.36%（科大讯飞），计算机视觉占比4.11%（海康威视），AI应用/IP平台占比5.22% （金山办公、芯原股份）。 规模与流动性方面优势显著，截止2025年12月31日，天弘中证人工智能主题指数基金产品规模达33.94 亿元，A类：7.80亿，C类：26.14亿（数据来源产品2025年四季报）。 基金业绩方面，2025年历史收益亮眼：天弘中证人工智能主题指数基金A类：64.98%，C类：64.66% （数据来源产品2025年四季报）。 国内方面，2026年春节前后国产大模型迎来集体发布潮，智谱发布GLM-5大模型，参数达744B，编程 能力对标Claude Opus 4.5，且完成与多款国产算力平台的适配；MiniMax推出M2.5模型，在编程、工 ...

人工智能AIETF（515070）跟踪CS人工智能主题指数（930713），成分股选取为人工智能提供技术、 基础资源以及应用端个股，聚集人工智能产业链上中游，俗称"机器人"大脑"缔造者"，万物互联"地 基"。前十大权重股包括中际旭创、新易盛、寒武纪-U、中科曙光、科大讯飞、豪威集团、海康威视、 澜起科技、金山办公、紫光股份等国内科技龙头。 随着周四凌晨英伟达财报发布，AI硬件震荡走强，光模块等纷纷回暖，人工智能AIETF（515070）持仓 股新易盛涨超3%，合合信息、北京君正、星宸科技等个股上涨明显，人工智能AIETF盘中震荡，成交 额突破1.2亿元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息方面，Anthropic发布了Claude Sonnet 4.6模型，新模型在编程、Agent规划和计算机使用等办公场景 性能显著提升，拥有100万token的上下文窗口，能以一次调用重构整个代码库。模型能力正从"通 用"向"专业场景深度优化"演进。该模型通过超大上下文窗口，能一次性处理极长代码库或文档，专为 程序员、数据分析师等知识工作者设计，旨在成为终极生产力工具。 中信建投认为：春节后至两会前是传统的"春季行情"高胜率区 ...

（全球TMT2026年2月25日讯）今日要点：刘强东创立独立游艇品牌；vivo晋升胡柏山为公司总裁；大疆起诉美国联邦通信委员会；创维将接 手松下北美和欧洲电视业务；苹果Mac mini将首次在美国进行生产；AMD同意向Meta出售价值600亿美元AI芯片；马斯克设想从月球电磁弹射 AI卫星。 刘强东创立独立游艇品牌 刘强东宣布已经创立独立游艇品牌Sea Expandary，将投资50亿元，计划从研发、制造、销售、运营、租赁、经纪、服务等全产业链布局游艇 产业。刘强东表示，该投资为个人投资，他本人不会直接参与运营管理。同时，他表示希望未来能造出10万元的游艇，能够让游艇像汽车一样 走进千家万户，让普通的工薪阶层也能用得起游艇。 vivo晋升胡柏山为公司总裁 AMD与Meta宣布达成一项6吉瓦的协议，旨在为Meta的下一代AI基础设施提供多代AMD Instinct GPU的支持。此项协议拓展了双方现有的战略 伙伴关系，并在芯片、系统和软件层面协调了发展路线图，以交付为Meta工作负载量身打造的AI平台。AMD同意向Meta公司出售价值高达600 亿美元的AI芯片。此外为协议的一部分，AMD已向Meta授予了基于 ...