28 January 2026 | 11:02PM EST Equity Research Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Trading off short-term Azure growth ultimately drives more strategic AI positioning long term MSFT 12m Price Target: $600.00 Price: $481.63 Upside: 24.6% Selina Zhang +1(212)357-9979 | selina.zhang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: $3.6tr Enterprise value: $3.5tr 3m ADTV: $12.3bn United States Americas Software M&A Rank: 3 | GS Forecast __________________________________ | | | | | | - ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - **Focus**: Cloud and PC Semiconductors - **Key Trends**: AI investments are a primary focus for hyperscalers in 2026, with memory pricing affecting capital expenditure (capex) and the overall PC and enterprise server market. Preference is given to cloud semiconductor companies over PC semiconductor companies [1][3]. Key Company Insights Meta (META.O) - **4Q25CY Capex**: US$22.1 billion, representing a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) and a 48% increase year-over-year (Y/Y) [7]. - **2026 Capex Guidance**: Expected to be between US$115-135 billion, a 74% increase Y/Y at the mid-point, driven by investments in superintelligence labs and core business infrastructure [7]. - **AI Focus**: Continues to prioritize AI and collaborates with key partners while advancing its silicon program to diversify chip supply and enhance infrastructure flexibility [7]. Microsoft (MSFT.O) - **F2Q26 Capex**: Reported at US$37.5 billion, a 7.4% increase Q/Q and a 66% increase Y/Y, with two-thirds allocated to short-lived assets focusing on GPUs and CPUs [7]. - **Future Capex Expectations**: Anticipates a sequential decrease in capital expenditure due to normal variability from cloud infrastructure buildouts and timing of finance lease deliveries [7]. - **New Products**: Introduced the Maia 200 GPU and Cobalt 200 CPU, aimed at avoiding reliance on a single source for chip supply [7]. - **Impact of Memory Pricing**: Increasing memory prices are expected to affect capex and create volatility in on-premises server business transactions, with a negative outlook for the PC market [7]. Investment Outlook - **Cloud Semiconductor Providers**: Positive sentiment towards cloud semiconductor companies like Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) due to ongoing investments in 2026 [3]. - **PC Market Caution**: A cautious view on PC semiconductors, particularly in the second half of 2026, due to rising memory prices impacting the market [3]. Valuation Methodology and Risks - **Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)**: Valuation based on a residual income model with key assumptions including a cost of equity of 9.8%, medium-term growth rate of 18.5%, and terminal growth rate of 5.2% [9]. - **Risks**: Upside risks include stronger cloud demand and faster-than-expected specification migration, while downside risks involve softening cloud demand and intensified competition [9]. Additional Insights - **Industry View**: The overall industry view is considered attractive, indicating potential for growth and investment opportunities [5]. - **Analyst Team**: The report is prepared by a team of analysts including Daniel Yen, Charlie Chan, Daisy Dai, and Tiffany Yeh, who have certified their views on the companies discussed [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the semiconductor industry, particularly the cloud and PC segments, and highlights the strategic directions of major players like Meta and Microsoft.

1月29日晚，国际金价、银价一度保持大涨，现货白银日内涨幅一度达3.5%，报120.76美元/盎司，现货黄金一度大涨2%。 不过，接近午夜行情急转直下，现货金银开始大幅跳水，现货黄金连续跌破5400美元、5300美元、5200美元三道关口，截至发稿，跌幅5%，报5135美元/ 盎司；现货白银大跌7.82%，现报107.5美元/盎司。 另外，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜一度大涨10.32%，随后也跳水，收窄涨幅，截至发稿，报14105美元/吨。 对此，网友很不淡定： "刚买了4克黄金，跌没了" "昨天刚上车，就1克亏了一百多？" 此前，国际金价持续上涨，引发市场各方关注。自1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元的重要整数关口后，国际金价在震荡中继续上涨，连续突 破多个重要关口，至29日突破每盎司5500美元，并一度逼近5600美元。自今年初以来，国际金价已累计上涨28%左右。 同时，北京时间29日晚，美股三大股指全部下跌，截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌0.13%，标普500指数跌0.75%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.64%。 多家美国科技巨头28日公布财报，业绩喜忧参半。 Meta大涨8%，此前该公司给出了好 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft's stock price plummeted by 10%, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1]. - The company's market cap loss exceeded the total market cap of over 90% of the S&P 500 index members [1]. - This event follows a historical precedent where Nvidia faced a $593 billion market cap loss in January 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Results and AI Investment - Microsoft's recent earnings report revealed record AI spending, with capital expenditures increasing by 66% to $37.5 billion [3]. - The growth rate of the Azure cloud computing business has slowed compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Microsoft faces capacity constraints in AI demand, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaling $625 billion, of which approximately 45% is linked to its partnership with OpenAI [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the return on investment (ROI) from Microsoft's substantial AI expenditures [3]. - Analysts suggest that Microsoft's stock may need to be revalued to align with its historical fair value due to the perceived lack of strong ROI from AI investments [3].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 0.72% and 0.13% respectively [2] - Large technology stocks mostly saw gains, with notable movements including META rising over 10%, marking its largest single-day increase since July, while Microsoft dropped approximately 10%, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion [3] Commodity Prices - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 5% at one point, falling below $5100 per ounce, and spot silver declining over 8% [1][7] - As of the latest updates, London gold was down 0.20% at $5406.958 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 1.67% to $5429.4 per ounce [7][8] - Other precious metals showed varied performance, with platinum down 2.36% at $2640.30 per ounce and palladium down 2.46% at $2006.40 per ounce [7][9] Energy Sector - Energy stocks showed positive movement, with Exxon Mobil increasing by 2.05%, Chevron by 0.7%, and ConocoPhillips by 1.39% [4] Airline Sector - The airline sector displayed mixed results; Boeing fell by 3.12%, while Delta Airlines rose by 1.06% and Southwest Airlines surged by 18.53% [5] Gold Mining Stocks - Gold mining stocks faced a downturn, with major companies like AngloGold Ashanti dropping over 7% and Newmont Mining down 3.81% [6]

Core Insights - Microsoft reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with operating income up 21% and adjusted EPS at $4.14, reflecting a 24% increase [1] - Cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year [1] - The company’s commercial order volume grew by 230% year-over-year, driven by significant long-term commitments from clients like OpenAI [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue: $81.3 billion, up 17% YoY (15% at constant currency) [1] - Operating income: up 21% YoY (19% at constant currency) [1] - Adjusted EPS: $4.14, up 24% YoY (21% at constant currency) [1] - Cloud revenue: $51.5 billion, up 26% YoY (24% at constant currency) [1] - Gross margin: 67% [1] Business Outlook - Q3 revenue forecast: $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion, a 15%-17% YoY increase [1] - Expected cost of revenue: $26.65 billion to $26.85 billion, a 22% YoY increase [1] - Anticipated operating expenses: $17.8 billion to $17.9 billion, a 10%-11% YoY increase [1] - Capital expenditures expected to decrease quarter-over-quarter due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [1] Strategic Focus - The company’s strategy emphasizes three layers of technology stack: cloud and token factory, agent platform, and superior agent experience [2] - The impact of AI on GDP and Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth is just beginning [2] - The agent platform is seen as the next generation of application platforms, requiring various services for deployment and management [2] Capital Expenditure and ROI - CapEx growth is driven by long-term demand, with investments aimed at supporting applications like M365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] - Azure's growth guidance is linked to capacity allocation rather than immediate revenue [3] - The average contract duration for RPO has increased from 2 years to 2.5 years, indicating a more stable revenue outlook [3] OpenAI Partnership - Approximately 45% of the unfulfilled orders (RPO) are related to OpenAI, with the remaining 55% reflecting a diverse business portfolio [4][5] - The partnership with OpenAI is viewed positively, contributing to Microsoft's leadership in technology and application innovation [5] Capacity Expansion - The company is focused on increasing capacity globally, with significant projects in Atlanta and Wisconsin [6] - Long-term infrastructure development is prioritized to ensure efficient deployment of GPU and CPU resources [6] Chip Development - The Maia 200 accelerator shows significant performance improvements, enhancing Microsoft's competitive edge in AI workloads [6] - Continuous innovation in chip design and system optimization is crucial for maintaining cost advantages [7] Client Transformation - Clients adopting Microsoft’s AI technology stack are experiencing transformative benefits, with potential for increased spending as they become "frontier firms" [8] - The deployment of agents is changing how companies coordinate work, leading to greater impact [8] Cloud Migration Trends - Ongoing cloud migration is evident, with services like SQL Server on Azure showing growth [9] - The need for a balanced approach between commercial cloud and AI cloud is emphasized as clients migrate workloads [9]

1月30日，金融界财经早餐，宏观政策、资本市场、行业板块、公司个股资讯一览： 3、中国航天科技集团作为我国商业航天器及应用产业链"链长"单位，将在"十五五"期间围绕发展商业航天 国家战略部署，发挥中央企业战略引领、生态构建等职能，带动产业链上中下游企业共谋新发展、共建新 能力、共筑新生态，实施五大工程。其中，包括实施未来产业发展培育工程，谋划推动太空数智基础设 施、太空资源开发、太空交通管理、太空旅游等新领域发展。 4、民政部发布《关于进一步推进民政科技创新的指导意见》，其中提出，广泛应用人形机器人、脑机接 口、人工智能等前沿技术，开展失能失智预防和抗衰老、生活照料和康复护理、精神慰藉和社会参与促 进、安全风险监测和紧急救援、老年宜居环境建设和适老化改造等方面关键技术装备研发，推动助餐助 行、二便护理、进食穿衣、助洁助浴、移乘转运、康复训练、心理干预、情感陪伴、监测预警、应急响应 等产品研发集成、安全化和规模化应用。推动大语言模型、脑机接口等技术在残疾儿童康复领域的应用， 加强脑瘫、孤独症等残疾儿童康复技术和设备研发。 5、美国贸易代表日前在达沃斯表示，在可能举行的中美领导人会晤之前，中美双方有机会开启新一轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent demand for inference and training computing power is strong, leading to price increases from both Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud [1][2] Group 1: Demand for Computing Power - The demand for computing resources for inference and training has significantly increased, supporting the need for training computing power [1] - AWS raised prices by approximately 15% for EC2 machine learning capacity blocks on January 23, 2026, followed by Google Cloud announcing price hikes for its cloud network transmission services, with North America seeing a doubling of prices [2] Group 2: Inference Side - The rapid emergence of AI agents, such as MoltBot, is expected to support the demand for inference computing power, as these agents can perform more complex tasks and require more computing resources [3] - Anthropic has raised its revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027 to $18 billion and $55 billion, respectively, indicating a strong upward trend in inference demand [3] Group 3: Training Side - The industrial sector is continuously exploring scaling limits, which supports the demand for training computing power, with new models expected to be released in Q1 2026 [8] - Models like Grok-5 and GPT-6 are anticipated to utilize larger datasets and parameter scales, increasing the demand for training computing power [8] Group 4: Financial Reporting Catalyst - The upcoming earnings reports from major cloud service providers (CSPs) will be critical in confirming the demand for computing power and capital expenditure continuity [9] - Key earnings dates include Microsoft and Meta on January 29, 2026, followed by Google on February 5 and Amazon on February 6, with NVIDIA's report on February 26 expected to further influence market sentiment [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) reported strong quarterly results and future outlook, driven by unprecedented demand for high-capacity HDDs due to the AI data center boom, exceeding Wall Street expectations [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - For Q2 FY26, Western Digital's total revenue increased by 25% year-over-year to $3.02 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of approximately $2.95 billion [2][3]. - The adjusted gross margin under non-GAAP was 46.1%, exceeding the expected 44.5% [2]. - Free cash flow was approximately $653 million, also above the forecast of $637 million [2]. - The adjusted EPS was $2.13, higher than the anticipated $1.93, with net profit increasing by 92% year-over-year to about $807 million [2][3]. Market Outlook - The company expects Q3 FY26 diluted EPS to range between $2.15 and $2.45, significantly above the consensus estimate of $1.99 [3]. - Total revenue for the upcoming quarter is projected to be between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, again exceeding analyst expectations [3]. Industry Context - The demand for enterprise-level high-capacity HDDs and SSDs is being driven by the rapid expansion of AI data centers, with major tech companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure [6][11]. - Western Digital, along with Seagate and SanDisk, has seen stock prices rise significantly, with Western Digital's stock increasing by 285% in 2025 and 60% since 2026 [1][6]. - The storage industry is experiencing a "super cycle," with a strong focus on nearline HDDs and enterprise SSDs to meet the growing storage needs of AI applications [7][11]. Supply Strategy - Western Digital and Seagate are not rushing to increase HDD production capacity, adhering to a "supply discipline" to avoid past cycles of overproduction and price wars [12][13]. - The company aims to enhance output through product structure and technology upgrades rather than expanding capacity aggressively [12].

Core Insights - Warp is transforming the traditional terminal into a comprehensive AI development workbench, diverging from the trend of enhancing IDEs like VSCode with AI features [1][2][3] - The terminal is inherently suitable for AI agents due to its time-series interaction model, allowing for efficient parallel processing of tasks [2][3] - Warp aims to integrate the entire development workflow, not just code writing, by enabling AI to manage tasks such as deployment, debugging, and incident response [7][12] Development Trends - The boundaries between traditional IDEs and terminals are blurring, leading to a new interface centered around prompts and agent orchestration [4] - Warp's platform is designed to handle a wide range of development tasks, positioning itself as a unique solution compared to other tools that merely fork from IDEs [7][13] Technical Innovations - Warp emphasizes the importance of prompt engineering and context window management, which are critical for effective AI interaction in terminal environments [8][9] - The company employs a model routing strategy, dynamically switching between various AI models based on performance metrics like latency and cost [9] Practical Applications - Real-world examples include AI-generated code that successfully compiles and integrates into existing workflows, showcasing the practical utility of Warp's platform [12] - Future scenarios envision AI agents autonomously responding to system events and managing incidents, reducing the need for manual input from developers [12][16] Business Strategy - Warp has adapted its pricing model from a subscription-based system to a consumption-based approach, reflecting user preferences for transparent billing [12] - The company recognizes the competitive landscape with major players like OpenAI and Anthropic, focusing on differentiation through unique technical capabilities [13] Future Outlook - The perspective that AI will eventually "solve" programming challenges suggests a shift in developer roles towards intent expression and quality assurance rather than direct coding [14][16] - The terminal is positioned to become the central hub for future development processes, facilitating seamless collaboration between AI and human developers [16][17]