2026 年 2 月 24 日 行业研究 春节假期旅游需求旺盛，呈量价齐升、结构优化特点 ——春节假期旅游市场点评 要点 春节假期旅游市场延续高景气度，呈现 "量价齐升、结构优化"特征：2026 年春节假期，全社会跨区域人员流动量有望创新高，民航、铁路、水运等交通方 式客流均实现同比增长，其中水运受游轮观光、海南封关等因素拉动表现尤为亮 眼。酒店市场量价双增，从酒店交易规模来看，飞猪平台春节假期酒店间夜量同 比增长 75%，且高星级酒店人均预订间夜量接近 3 晚，呈现一定的消费升级趋 势，部分热门旅游城市酒店价格涨幅显著；受"先团圆、后度假"的分段式出行 影响，一定程度上推动春运机票价格同比上涨，热门航线供需格局较紧张。 国内游传统与小众目的地热度均上升，AI 推动消费场景串联：1）2026 年春节 国内游市场持续火爆，飞猪平台国内游订单量创历史新高，人均预订金额同比提 升约 10%。2）游客既追求传统旅游目的地的经典体验，亦青睐小众目的地的特 色玩法，国内游呈体验多元化趋势。传统景区方面，祥源文旅旗下核心景区表现 亮眼，春节假期前四天累计接待游客 26.45 万人，同比增长 20%，其中湖南张 家界黄龙洞、 ...

2026年马年春节，上海以"旅选上海，超级新春"为主题，围绕节庆演艺、文博展览、非遗民俗、公共文化、儿童阅读等七大板块，精心策划推出2570 余项春节假日文旅活动，积极引导市民游客"在沪过年、来沪过年"。 据上海旅游大数据监测，春节假日9天，上海共接待游客2167.21万人次，同比增长8.36%（按可比口径，下同）；全市涵盖吃、住、行、游、购、娱 全要素的旅游消费交易总金额达256.14亿元，同比增长20.90%；全市宾旅馆平均客房出租率为50.60%，同比提升3.10个百分点。 节日期间，上海紧扣"旅选上海，超级新春"主题，统筹整合文商旅体展全域资源，通过发放消费券、景区优惠折扣、民俗展演、新春市集等多项惠民 举措，贯通住宿、餐饮、商圈、文博等消费全链条，构建起高品质、一站式的新春文旅服务体系，营造出年味浓郁、热闹喜庆的假日市场氛围。 上海市文化和旅游局持续深化"上海旅游攻略超级大赛"成果运用，推动"攻略—产品—流量"全链条转化，不断提升上海文旅的吸引力与影响力。一是 丰富多日深度游产品，围绕三大主题推出130余款春节特色线路，创新都市过年新体验。相关产品节前通过东方卫视、上观新闻、抖音等平台直播售卖， 成 ...

2026春节假期社服零售数据一览(持续更新中) # 免税： 销售额：春假前五日，海南离岛免税购物金额达13.8亿元，免税购物人数17.7万人次，比去年春节假期前五天分别 增长19%和24.6%。 海南客流：26年春节（15-23日）海口美兰、三亚凤凰、琼海博鳌等岛内三大机场预计旅客吞吐量预计达到191.5万 人次，与去年相比增长5.4%。 口岸客流：假期前五天，珠海边检 2026春节假期社服零售数据一览(持续更新中) # 免税： 销售额：春假前五日，海南离岛免税购物金额达13.8亿元，免税购物人数17.7万人次，比去年春节假期前五天分别 增长19%和24.6%。 海南客流：26年春节（15-23日）海口美兰、三亚凤凰、琼海博鳌等岛内三大机场预计旅客吞吐量预计达到191.5万 人次，与去年相比增长5.4%。 口岸客流：假期前五天，珠海边检总站查验经拱北、港珠澳大桥、横琴、青茂等口岸出入境客流量285万人次，同 比增长约4%。 # 景区： 长白山：春节假期前四天（2月15-18日），累计游客3.9万人次，同比增长 77.5%。 预计整体假期增长超20%。 宋城演艺：千古情9天演出576场，日均场次相比25年下降5 ...

行业动态报告 · 社会服务行业 假期安排优化推动景气回升，免税高增延续 —— 2026 年春节假期数据点评 2026 年 02 月 22 日 核心观点 社会服务行业 | | | 分析师 顾熹闽 ：18916370173 ：guximin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 研究助理：邱爽 ：qiushuang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 02 月 13 日 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/2/24 2025/3/24 2025/4/24 2025/5/24 2025/6/24 2025/7/24 2025/8/24 2025/9/24 2025/10/24 2025/11/24 2025/12/24 2026/1/24 SW社会服务 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河社服】CPI 专题报告：服务消费 CPI 能否 重回增长？ 2.【银河社服】2 月投资月报：超长假期赋能，平台 与免税赛道迎红利 3.【银河社服】1 月投资月报：旺季更旺，1 月布局 高 ...

Market Overview - Cooling inflation signals have led to a valuation recovery in overseas consumer assets, with the U.S. bipartisan push for credit card interest rate cap legislation creating uncertainty in the credit card sector[1] - Weekly performance of sectors shows U.S. hotels leading with a 3.1% increase, followed by overseas sportswear at 2.5% and luxury goods at 2.2%[11] Sector Performance - The U.S. hotel sector's strong performance is attributed to Marriott and Hilton, with Marriott's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA exceeding market expectations, reaching $5.84 billion to $5.93 billion[6] - Overseas sportswear saw a 2.5% increase, driven by a lower-than-expected January CPI of 2.4%, enhancing Fed rate cut expectations[13] - Luxury goods increased by 2.2%, with Hermès up 4.5% due to better-than-expected FY2025 results, while LVMH fell by 4.1% due to disappointing performance in key segments[8] Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 13.7%, outperforming other sectors[11] - Domestic sportswear increased by 0.3%, with Anta Sports rising 4.6% following the acquisition of a stake in PUMA[13] Challenges - The credit card sector faced a significant decline of 5.5%, influenced by proposed legislation to cap interest rates, which could severely impact profitability[14] - The snack sector dropped by 4.6%, with companies like Three Squirrels experiencing a 6.2% decline due to substantial drops in e-commerce sales across major platforms[14] Valuation Insights - Valuations across various sectors remain below the historical five-year averages, with overseas sportswear expected PE at 30.1x, only 57% of the past average[9] - The luxury sector's expected PE is 26.2x, representing 49% of its historical average, indicating potential for future growth as market conditions stabilize[9]

中国银河证券ICGS 行业点评报告·消费行业 消费温和复苏，悦已型春节消费斩露头角 2026年02月22日 核心观点 :guximin_vi@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 免签政策的持续 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 消费温和复苏，消费结构、消费格局变化更受瞩目：1）春节期间消费被寄 分析师 予厚望，政府发力组织 乐购新春" 春节特别活动， 发文 《积极推动物价合 理回升》， 针对互联网平台推动反垄断、反内卷。 2）消费呈现温和复苏的迹 何伟 象，包括客流的稳步增长， 以及核心商圈、 重点零售和餐饮企业相关消费的 ：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 增长。部分消费品、 服务消费价格的提升。3）但市场并不认同消费的全面复 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 苏，春节期间香港市场 必选消费指数、 非必选消费指数分别下 陈柏儒 美团2月13日公布 :chenbairu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 跌1.31%、 下跌3.0% 消费相 ...

Core Insights - The tourism market in Xinjiang, particularly in the Altay region, has seen a significant surge in popularity during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a 27% increase in domestic flight bookings compared to the previous year, and a 66% increase for Altay specifically [5][6][9] - The total number of tourists in Xinjiang is projected to reach 323 million in 2025, with a tourism expenditure of 370 billion yuan, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [5] - The accommodation market in Xinjiang is undergoing a transformation, with high-end brands and local特色住宿 competing for customers [6][13] Tourism Growth - During the 2026 New Year holiday, Xinjiang received 1.68 million tourists, generating a total tourism expenditure of 1.53 billion yuan [8] - The demand for winter tourism in Xinjiang has been fueled by the opening of multiple ski resorts and improved transportation infrastructure, such as the opening of the Ahe Highway [9][12] - The local tourism industry has experienced a growth rate of 15%-20% in recent years, indicating a turning point for Xinjiang tourism since 2023 [9] Accommodation Market Dynamics - The overall price of local travel services in Xinjiang has increased by 30%-50% during the Spring Festival, driven by high demand and limited resources [14] - Hotel bookings in Xinjiang have surged by 53% year-on-year, with some areas like Ili seeing a 100% increase [15] - High-end hotel bookings have increased by nearly 80% during the Spring Festival, reflecting a growing preference for standardized and quality accommodations [15][16] Competitive Landscape - The entry of international hotel brands such as InterContinental, Marriott, and Hilton is reshaping the accommodation landscape in Xinjiang, which has historically had a low chain hotel penetration rate [16][19] - The rapid expansion of hotel chains is expected to continue, with over 40 projects planned to open in the near future [17] - The competition between high-end hotels and traditional local accommodations, such as snow cabins, is intensifying, with many tourists willing to pay a premium for reliable services [20][21] Future Outlook - The influx of capital and the establishment of standardized hotel brands are likely to drive down accommodation prices in the long term, creating a more competitive market [26][27] - By 2026, more international and domestic hotel brands are expected to establish a presence in Xinjiang, potentially leading to a significant industry reshuffle [27]

Core Insights - The report by Adobe Analytics indicates that AI-driven shopping models are expected to explode by the fall-winter shopping season of 2025, with a projected 520% year-on-year increase in shopping traffic driven by AI, peaking ten days before Thanksgiving [1] - In China, the Qianwen APP achieved over 10 million orders in just 9 hours during the "30 Billion Big Free Order" event, completing 120 million orders in 6 days, showcasing the transformative impact of AI applications on consumer behavior [1] - The travel and hospitality industry is rapidly adapting to AI as a strategic channel, with major collaborations announced between Qianwen and over 40 global travel brands, including airlines and hotel groups [1] Industry Dynamics - The travel and hospitality sector is experiencing a significant shift as conversational AI emerges as a new entry point, fundamentally changing the way consumers interact with services [2][3] - Traditional online booking processes are cumbersome, but generative AI simplifies decision-making for users, allowing them to express complex travel needs in natural language [2] - The introduction of AI is expected to disrupt the established distribution structures in the travel industry, enabling companies to bypass traditional layers and directly reach consumers [3][4] Competitive Landscape - The fear of missing out on AI-driven opportunities is prompting travel companies to accelerate their transformation efforts, as missing a migration to new entry points can lead to higher customer acquisition costs [4] - Major travel brands are increasingly collaborating with AI platforms like Qianwen and Fliggy, recognizing the potential for rapid order growth and the importance of maintaining control over user assets [6][9] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands realizing that defining the next generation of entry points will provide significant advantages in the market [5][6] User Engagement and Experience - AI is becoming a powerful tool for brands to identify high-value users, particularly among tech-savvy consumers aged 20 to 35, who prioritize efficiency and have strong purchasing power [11] - The integration of AI is transforming the transactional nature of travel services into long-term relationships, allowing brands to optimize offerings based on user preferences and feedback [12] - AI's ability to capture user intent and preferences enables brands to evolve from standardized service providers to personalized "smart travel assistants," enhancing customer loyalty [12] Future Outlook - The integration of AI into the travel industry is expected to create a new operational order, with brands that can build future-oriented business systems gaining a competitive edge [12] - The ongoing competition for AI-driven entry points is reshaping the OTA market, presenting unique opportunities for travel businesses seeking to differentiate themselves and achieve brand premium [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Junting Hotel, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - Junting Hotel is positioned as a leading mid-to-high-end selected service hotel group in China, with a focus on national expansion through direct management and commissioned management models [12][24]. - The acquisition by Hubei Cultural Tourism will change the controlling shareholder to Hubei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which is expected to enhance growth potential and resource integration [24][27]. - The report predicts a recovery in performance due to the gradual improvement in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) and the expansion of direct-operated hotels, which is anticipated to release profit elasticity [18][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Junting Hotel, established in 2007, operates under three brands: Junting, Junlan, and Jinglan, with a total of 272 hotels and 52,079 rooms as of September 30, 2025 [12][15]. - The company reported a revenue of 676 million yuan in 2024, with hotel operation and management revenues of 557 million yuan and 119 million yuan, respectively [15][30]. Acquisition and Control Change - Hubei Cultural Tourism plans to acquire a 29.99% stake from the original controlling team at a price of 25.71 yuan per share, totaling 1.499 billion yuan [24][25]. - Post-acquisition, Hubei Cultural Tourism will hold 36% of Junting Hotel, enhancing its operational capabilities and resource utilization [27][28]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts total revenue for Junting Hotel to reach 883 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.56% from 2023 to 2027 [30][33]. - The projected net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 0.2 billion yuan, 0.7 billion yuan, and 1.1 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [32][34]. Investment Recommendations - Junting Hotel is expected to benefit from its positioning in the high-end market and the operational improvements following the acquisition by Hubei Cultural Tourism, leading to an "Accumulate" rating [34][36]. - The report highlights that the company's P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 317 and 88, respectively, reflecting its growth potential [34][36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Junting Hotel, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - Junting Hotel is positioned as a leading mid-to-high-end selected service hotel group in China, with a focus on national expansion through direct management and commissioned management models [12][24]. - The acquisition by Hubei Cultural Tourism will change the controlling shareholder to Hubei Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which is expected to enhance growth potential and resource integration [24][27]. - The report forecasts a recovery in performance with improved RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) as the company expands its direct hotel operations [18][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Junting Hotel, established in 2007, operates under three brands: Junting, Junlan, and Jinglan, with a total of 272 hotels and 52,079 rooms as of September 30, 2025 [12][15]. - The company reported a revenue of 676 million yuan in 2024, with hotel operations and management contributing 557 million yuan and 119 million yuan, respectively [15][30]. Acquisition Details - Hubei Cultural Tourism plans to acquire a 29.99% stake from the original controlling team at a price of 25.71 yuan per share, totaling 1.499 billion yuan [24][25]. - Post-acquisition, Hubei Cultural Tourism will hold 36% of Junting Hotel, enhancing its operational capabilities and resource utilization [27][28]. Financial Forecasts - The report predicts total revenue for Junting Hotel to reach 696 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.0% [30][33]. - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.19 billion, 0.68 billion, and 1.06 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit margins improving over the years [32][34]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in RevPAR, with projections of 290, 296, and 304 yuan for 2025-2027 [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - Junting Hotel is expected to benefit from its positioning in the high-end market and the operational synergies from the acquisition by Hubei Cultural Tourism, leading to an "Accumulate" rating [34][36]. - The report highlights the potential for growth through resource integration and the exploration of new business models such as hotel REITs [28][34].