投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/16 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 業 | 现值 | 1647 | 1195 | 2218 | 1323 | 3128 | 1719 | | | 前値 | 1656 | 1147 | 2188 | 1250 | 3033 | 1690 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.54% | 4.21% | 1.37% | 5.84% | 3.13% | 1.72% | | 발 TE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1956 | 3232 | | | | | | | 前値 | 1795 | 3143 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | 8.97% | 2.83% | | | | | tel Hol 新 iii ...

航运日报 | 2026-01-15 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK4价格1695/2730,WEEK5价格1510/2420；HPL 1月下半月船期报 价1585/2535，2月上半月船期报价1585/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 1月下半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 1月下半月船期报价1680/2635,2月上半月船期 报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2633-2730美元/FEU。 地缘端：美国特使威特科夫表示，我们正式宣布启动特朗普关于结束加沙冲突"二十点计划"的第二阶段。第二阶 段将在加沙建立一个过渡性的巴勒斯坦技术官僚政府，并开启加沙地带的全面去军事化与重建工作。美国期望哈 马斯完全履行其义务。美国期望哈马斯立即归还最后一名遇难人质，否则将面临严重后果。 静态供给：交付现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to experience a relatively concentrated rush of shipments before April 1st, which will consume the export volume of photovoltaic modules after April next year, and the subsequent export volume will decline. The rush of shipments may temporarily alleviate the decline in freight rates after the holiday, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies, and a price war in the off - season is inevitable. The main contract is supported in the short term, but the benefits of the rush of shipments need to be verified. Subsequently, the decline in exports will lead to a contraction in cargo volume, which is suitable for upstream and mid - stream enterprises to conduct short hedging on the 04 contract. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The previous values are 1656, 1147, 2188, 1250, 3033, 1690, 1795, and 3143 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72%, 8.97%, and 2.83% respectively [4]. 3.2 Market News - The US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the ruling finds Trump's tariffs illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy [5]. - Maersk will continue to gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. From January 11th to 12th, Maersk Denver successfully passed the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea [5]. 3.3 EC Market - **Market Review**: The market is in a downward trend [6]. - **Spot Price**: In the fourth week of January, Maersk's quotes were differentiated. The Shanghai - Rotterdam route was quoted at $2700/FEU (a month - on - month increase of $100), while the Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk routes dropped to $2400/FEU ( $230 lower than the European base port). Hapag - Lloyd's quote center dropped to $2300 - 2700/FEU. In the OA alliance, the quotes were loose in the first half of January. From January 16th - 22nd, EMC's quote was $2800 - 2950/FEU, still at a high level but with weakened price - holding strength. YML's quote from January 16th - 22nd was $2600/FEU, lower than OA and MSC, and it has not followed Maersk's price cut. MSC's quote in the second half of January was $2840/FEU, the same as the first half, and did not follow Maersk's price cut [6]. - **Logic**: The State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax - refund policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports an average of 35,000 - 40,000 TEU of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total export volume on the European route. To avoid losing tax - refund benefits and increasing export costs, enterprises are rushing to ship before the policy takes effect. It is estimated that before April 1st, the additional cargo volume on the European route due to the rush of shipments will be about 30,000 TEU, which will consume the capacity of 2 ships with a capacity of 15,000 TEU. After April, it is expected that the monthly shipping volume on the European route will decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%, putting pressure on the demand for far - month contracts [6].

航运日报 | 2026-01-13 2月合约交割结算价格逐步清晰，关注马士基1月最后一周报 价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第四周价格1685/2710；HPL 1月上半月报价1635/2635，1月下半月船 期报价1635/2635，2月上半月船期报价1735/2835. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC1月上半月价格1700/2840，1月下半月船期报价1700/2840；ONE 1月下半月船期报价 1680/2635,2月上半月船期报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价2309/3693，2月份船期价格2409/3893；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2780-2830美元/FEU。 地缘端：马士基：将继续采取循序渐进的方式，逐步恢复通过苏伊士运河和红海的东西向航道航运。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合 ...

2026 年 1 月 13 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指引；04 轻仓试空 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 | 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,748.0 | 1.03% | 16,668 | 13,344 | -4,359 | 1.25 | 0.64 | | | EC2604 | 1,280.8 | 11.30% | 64,695 | 37,092 | 8,071 | 1.74 | 0.47 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/1/12 | | ...

外资班轮公司与码头运营商，曾经是中国港口最活跃的角色之一。在中国港口的高速建设热潮中，他们是沿海港口的座上宾，在各地组建合资码头公司， 带来资金、技术、管理经验，分走市场、利润，各取所需。 随着中国港口崛起，这段"蜜月期"进入尾声，近几年来，只见外资股权被中方收购，不见外资进入中国集装箱码头。可以预见，未来外资还会继续退潮。 不过，外资班轮公司与中国码头运营商深入合作的需求还在，买不进码头，他们还有别的方式联姻。 2025年12月，山东港口与MSC的合资堆场开业，简称"港联地"，在青岛港前湾港区后方，场地面积11.3万平方米，可提供出口操作、集装箱进出场、干箱 维修、冷箱预检维修等服务，看上去平平无奇。 在青岛港周边，运营堆场或场站的玩家比比皆是，船公司、码头、货代、集装箱制造企业，都有份。合资堆场也不少，仅青岛港的下属企业，就与各类主 体合资了多个堆场，如港联荣（万海）、港联捷（全球捷运）、港联欣（中创物流）、港联海（中远海运）、港联华（中集）、港捷丰（海丰、马士 基）、长荣集装箱储运（长荣）等。 其中不乏与外资船公司的合资企业，但这些合资堆场成立时间较早，最晚也已经是近十年前，当时还算是码头与船公司的常规 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term European line is expected to be volatile, and the main contract's valuation is under pressure after a pull - back [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the freight rate of the container shipping index for the European line will peak in mid - to late January. Multiple factors, including spot freight rates, political - economic situations, capacity supply, and demand, affect the freight rate trend. The short - term European line shows an oscillating pattern, and there is a risk of further downward movement in freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot freight rates**: They have a positive impact. Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January are differentiated. Some shipping companies like Hapag - Lloyd and EMC have different price trends, with some showing price drops and others maintaining high prices but with weakened price - holding power [3]. - **Political - economic factors**: They are considered neutral. The US Supreme Court's potential ruling on Trump's global tariff policy, the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers in the US - Venezuela situation, and the peak shipping season in the Asia - Europe route with increased capacity deployment are all influencing factors [3]. - **Capacity supply**: It has a negative impact. The weekly average capacity has been increasing from 2025 to 2026, with 270,000 TEU in November 2025, 300,000 TEU in December 2025, and 313,000 - 321,000 TEU in January 2026 [3]. - **Demand**: It has a positive impact. At the end of 2025, the container shipping demand for the European line remained strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates, supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking and European importers' replenishment needs [3]. - **Trading strategy**: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes in the spot market, including the European line index, the US - West line index, and the US - East line index, through charts [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over a long - term period, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet and new - order volumes [11]. - **Delivery volume**: It presents the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [14][16]. - **Demolition volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [15][17]. - **Future delivery**: It forecasts the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2023 - 2029, including quarterly and annual data [20][22][23]. - **Ship prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand price of container ships with different loading capacities, and their price indices [27][29][33]. - **Existing capacity**: It shows the existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, proportion, age, and idle/retrofit ratio, including data for different loading capacities and age groups [42][45][46]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship schedule**: It shows the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European basic port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61]. - **Desulfurization tower installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships, TEU, and average age and duration of installation, as well as the average speed of container ships [67][68][71]. - **Idle capacity**: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofit ships [75][76][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of the month. The 02 contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1750 - 1850 points under relatively pessimistic estimates, and its valuation support is expected to be in this range. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards, but the situation of contracts in June and August remains uncertain. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [5][6][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 8, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,139.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,089.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1706.00, 1163.30, 1415.00, 1527.40, 1105.20, and 1343.00 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies vary. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk's price in the fourth week of January was 1685/2710; HPL's quotes in the first and second half - months of January and the first half - month of February were 1835/3035. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes and changes [1][2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. In terms of delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, and in February it was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 279,000 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in January, 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings in February, and 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, which will put pressure on the far - month contract prices [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. The demand situation is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival [5]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-08 下半月运价逐步修正，关注后续持续调整情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第四周价格1685/2710；HPL 1月上半月报价1835/3035，1月下半月船 期报价2135/3535，2月上半月船期报价1835/3035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC1月上半月价格1700/2840，1月下半月船期报价1700/2840；ONE 1月上半月船期报价 2110/2835，1月下半月船期报价2440/3335；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1533/2636，1月下半月船期报价 1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1859/3293，1月下半月船期报价2509/4093；EMC 1月上半 月船期报价介于3030-3230，1月下半月船期报价3330-3530美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价介于3043-3130 美元/FEU，1月下半月船期报价3080-3130美元/FEU。 地缘端：管遭到以色列坦克和军队的围困，并面临特朗普彻 ...