Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has maintained the AA+ rating for Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd., reflecting its strong position in the phosphate chemical industry and resource advantages, despite facing challenges from price fluctuations and investment pressures [3][5][6]. Company Overview - Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group is a leading enterprise in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, benefiting from rich phosphate rock and hydropower resources in Hubei province [5][21]. - The company has established a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, enhancing its competitive edge and liquidity [5][21]. Financial Performance - As of March 2025, the company's total assets reached 495.66 billion, with total liabilities at 207.05 billion and equity attributable to shareholders at 416.12 billion [3]. - The company's operating income for 2024 was 283.96 billion, with a net profit of 16.19 billion, reflecting a slight increase in revenue despite a decline in product prices [3][19]. Industry Environment - The phosphate rock supply remains tight, with domestic production expected to maintain high prices due to limited supply and strong downstream demand [11][12]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with major players like Hubei Xingfa benefiting from their resource-rich locations [11][12]. Investment Projects - The company issued 28 billion in convertible bonds in September 2022 to fund new projects, including a 200,000 tons/year phosphoric acid project and an 80,000 tons/year functional silicone project [7][8]. - As of March 2025, the balance of the special account for the raised funds was 0.25 billion, indicating effective fund management [7]. Competitive Position - Hubei Xingfa holds significant phosphate rock reserves, with 395 million tons of mining rights and an additional 412 million tons in exploration stages [5][21]. - The company is one of the largest producers of glyphosate in China, with a production capacity of 23,000 tons [18][21]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency has a stable outlook for the company, citing its strong resource and cost advantages, as well as its ability to withstand industry risks [6][11]. - The company plans to increase phosphate mining efforts in 2024, aiming for a significant rise in sales volume and profitability [5][21].

Core Viewpoint - Mitsui Chemicals is strategically divesting its 50% stake in Sinopec Mitsui Chemicals Co., Ltd. (SSMC) to Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. as part of its global strategy adjustment, focusing on green chemicals and high-performance materials due to declining domestic demand and increasing overseas competition [2][3]. Group 1: Company Actions - The divestment of SSMC is a response to the continuous decline in performance, with a projected loss of 10.6 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025 [3]. - Mitsui Chemicals is considering restructuring its core business units related to basic and green materials, including phenols, industrial chemicals, and sustainable raw materials [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The domestic phenol production capacity in China has reached 6.39 million tons, with increasing industry concentration, including major players like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Wanhua Chemical [5]. - The industry is facing an oversupply situation, with an expected additional capacity of 995,000 tons in 2025 from various companies [5]. - Recently, INEOS Phenol, the world's largest producer of phenol and acetone, announced plans to permanently cease production in Germany, indicating broader challenges in the chemical sector [4]. Group 3: Remaining Operations in China - Mitsui Chemicals maintains several significant operations in China, including: - Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui Elastomers Co., Ltd., producing ethylene-propylene-diene monomer (EPDM) with an annual capacity of 75,000 tons [6]. - Tianjin Mitsui Nonwoven Fabrics Co., Ltd., producing nonwoven fabrics with an annual capacity of 15,000 tons [7]. - Foshan Mitsui Chemical Isocyanate Co., Ltd., focusing on polyurethane products for the automotive industry [8]. - Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Mitsui Yuntuo Composite Materials Co., Ltd., producing high-performance polymer composites [8]. - Plans to expand production capacity in Shanghai for thermoplastic elastomers and adhesive polyolefins by 2026 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2020, China's ethylene production capacity has been growing rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants, which will drive up the demand for upstream raw materials such as naphtha [2][8]. - Due to the limitations of the growth of domestic crude oil primary processing capacity and naphtha circulation volume, the growth of naphtha demand is expected to be supplemented by imports [3][9]. - Short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Preface - China's ethylene production capacity has been accelerating since 2020, with a five - year compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020 to 2024. In 2024, the ethylene production capacity was 55.42 million tons, almost doubling compared to 2019. From 2025 to 2027, there are plans to put into operation nearly 30 million tons of ethylene plants. Naphtha cracking is the main process for ethylene production, accounting for 68% of the total ethylene production capacity by the end of 2024. The report aims to predict the growth of domestic naphtha demand by analyzing the existing ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally and the non - integrated ethylene plant construction plans from 2025 to 2027 [8]. 3.2 Existing Ethylene Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally and Fewer PX Plants - There are about 14 ethylene plants using naphtha steam cracking in China without atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, with a total capacity of 10.24 million tons. These plants mainly use externally purchased naphtha as feedstock, and some also use light hydrocarbons. If fully operational, they would need to purchase more than 30 million tons of naphtha externally each year [11]. - There are relatively few PX plants purchasing naphtha externally, such as Qingdao Lidan and Fujia Dahua. This is because reforming units require heavy naphtha with higher aromatic potential requirements, while the market - circulated naphtha is mostly light naphtha [15]. 3.3 Intensive Commissioning of Steam Cracking Plants from 2025 to 2027, Potentially Further Increasing Naphtha Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, 14 steam cracking plants with a total capacity of 17.4 million tons are planned to be commissioned. Among them, 4 plants with a total capacity of 4.9 million tons need to purchase naphtha externally, with a theoretical external purchase demand of over 10 million tons [16]. - From 2025 to 2027 (including Q4 2024), about 31.69 million tons of ethylene cracking projects will be commissioned, mainly in 2025 - 2026. Some projects need to purchase naphtha externally. After the concentrated commissioning in 2025, several plants such as Fujian Zhongsha Petrochemical and CNOOC Shell (Phase III) will need to purchase naphtha externally from 2026 to 2028 [17]. - The growth of reforming capacity in the next few years is relatively small. About over 10 million tons of capacity will be gradually released from the end of 2024 to 2027, mostly as supporting facilities for new or expanded large - scale refineries [17]. 3.4 Limited Growth of Domestic Primary Processing Capacity, Requiring Import Supplements - Although new and改扩建 projects of refineries are expected to add over 100 million tons of atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity, the actual growth of primary processing capacity is expected to be much lower, which may limit the increase in naphtha supply from atmospheric and vacuum distillation [23]. - According to relevant policies, by the end of 2025, the national crude oil primary processing capacity should be controlled within 1 billion tons. The elimination of old capacities may accompany the commissioning of new atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacities, restricting the increase in naphtha supply [23]. - The naphtha of domestic major refineries is mostly for self - use, with limited incremental tradable resources. The supply of naphtha from Shandong local refineries is expected to shrink, and the domestic supply gap of naphtha has been widening since 2022. The import volume is expected to further increase in 2025 [26]. - Globally, the supply of naphtha mainly comes from the Middle East, Russia, and the United States. From 2025 to 2027, the growth of naphtha supply may be relatively limited due to factors such as geopolitics and international sanctions [27]. 3.5 Early - Commissioned Plants Purchasing Naphtha Externally May Become Marginal Plants - If naphtha resources become scarce in the future, short - process ethylene/PX plants that need to purchase naphtha externally are more vulnerable to production shocks and may become the marginal capacity affecting pricing [32]. - Among the existing ethylene/PX plants purchasing naphtha externally in China, there are 3.89 million tons of ethylene plants and 1.7 million tons of PX plants commissioned before 2010. There are also many short - and medium - process plants in Japan and South Korea, and their profits may be more affected by naphtha price fluctuations [32].

| 离任高级管理人员职务 | 董事长 | | --- | --- | | 离任高级管理人员姓名 | 章砚 | | 离任原因 | 工作调整 | | 离任日期 | 2025年6月16日 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位的说明 | 元 | 公开资料显示，2017年8月，中银基金原董事长白志中离任，章砚出任公司董事长。直至本次离任，章砚担任中银基金董事长一职接近8年。在此之前，章砚 历任中国银行总行全球金融市场部总监，总行金融市场总部、投资银行与资产管理部总经理。 中银量化精选混合基金成立于2016年12月13日，截至2025年6月18日，该基金成立以来的单位净值增长0.07%，近3年的单位净值下跌17.09%，近1年的单位 净值增长6.96%。 | 中银量化精选混合A(003717) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 单位净值(2025-06-18) | 累计净值 | | | 1.0007 0.18% | 1.0007 | | | 近1月 : - 1.23% | 近3月 : - 1.86% | 近6月: - 0.27% | | 沂1年:6.96% | 沂3年:-17.09% | 成立来:0.07 ...

金十图示：2025年06月24日（周二）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：成分股大面积飘红，保险、证券、汽车整车涨 势较大 -0.10(-1.15%) +0.02(+0.47%) -0.04(-0.71%) 保险 100 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 08 3980.16亿市值 3532.59亿市值 10341.59亿市值 14.29亿成交额 58.74亿成交额 11.14亿成交额 56.79 36.72 9.00 +0.83(+2.31%) +1.69(+3.07%) +0.36(+4.17%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18054.07亿市值 2188.49亿市值 4648.23亿市值 52.29亿成交额 11.77亿成交额 21.39亿成交额 1437.20 179.39 119.75 +17.20(+1.21%) +1.68(+0.95%) +1.47(+1.24%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2328.04亿市值 2535.01亿市值 3187.60亿市值 17.03亿成交额 53.14亿成交额 26.75亿成交额 137.14 435.82 607.2 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may face tightening, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US-China relations, leading to a potential volatile market [2] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong stock market remain positive due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a favorable long-term investment value [2] Market Data Summary - The domestic new fund market is experiencing a surge with 50 new funds launched, primarily equity mixed funds, while the net value of equity funds has collectively declined [3] - Notably, the net inflow into stock ETFs reached 14.669 billion yuan, with a focus on small-cap and sci-tech boards, while large-cap ETFs saw net outflows [3] Industry Research Summary Automotive Industry - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2025, driven by advancements in reinforcement learning and large models [4] - Recommended companies include Tesla for L4 pure vision Robotaxi and suppliers like Nidec for steer-by-wire systems, along with Xpeng Motors and a focus on Li Auto and NIO [4] High-end Manufacturing - Optimus robots are set for major improvements, with a positive outlook on humanoid robotics and specific attention to high-complexity dexterous hands and rolling screw technology [5] - The engineering machinery sector is facing short-term domestic pressure but maintains a growth trend in exports, with recommended companies including Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [5] Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic air conditioning sales increased by 2.3% in May, while production fell by 1.8%, indicating potential demand weakness [6] - The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize in the short term but are expected to rise gradually with domestic stimulus policies and potential US interest rate cuts [6] Basic Chemicals - The report highlights the long-term value of leading companies in the chemical industry, with recommendations for major players in oil and gas, low-valuation chemical leaders, and new materials sectors [8] - Specific companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector [9] - Key companies to focus on include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, which are positioned for rapid development and internationalization [9] Steel Industry - The report notes a decline in the domestic alumina capacity utilization rate to a new low for 2023, with expectations for steel sector profitability to recover to historical averages [10] - The revised steel industry standards are anticipated to support this recovery [10]

Core Viewpoint - The aniline industry in China has experienced significant changes in production capacity and market dynamics, with a notable increase in capacity from 338,000 tons in 2020 to 449,500 tons in 2023, but is expected to stabilize around 450,000 tons in 2024 due to slowed growth in MDI production capacity [1][5][20]. Industry Overview - Aniline, also known as aminobenzene, is a crucial organic compound with the chemical formula C6H7N, characterized as a colorless to pale yellow oily liquid [2][3]. - The aniline industry is structured into three segments: upstream raw material supply, midstream production, and downstream application, with key applications in MDI, rubber additives, dyes, and pharmaceuticals [3][11]. Production Side - From 2017 to 2020, China's aniline production capacity decreased from 3.91 million tons to 3.38 million tons due to supply-side reforms and stricter environmental policies [5]. - In 2021, the trend reversed as new aniline facilities were commissioned, leading to a recovery in production capacity, which reached 4.495 million tons in 2023 [5][20]. - The growth in MDI production capacity is expected to slow significantly in 2024, limiting the demand for new aniline capacity [5][20]. Import and Export - China has achieved self-sufficiency in aniline, with imports remaining below 0.1 thousand tons from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong domestic supply capabilities [7]. - Aniline exports saw a significant decline in 2023, dropping to approximately 97,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 65.49%, but are projected to rebound to 213,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 117.98% [7][9]. - The average export price of aniline has risen from 4,874.17 yuan/ton in 2020 to 9,765.64 yuan/ton in 2024, marking a cumulative increase of 100.35% [9]. Consumption Side - The MDI industry is the largest consumer of aniline, accounting for about 80% of market consumption in 2024, driven by the growing demand for high-performance materials in various sectors [11][19]. - Domestic MDI production capacity has expanded significantly since 2000, with projections indicating a continued annual growth rate of 6% to 8% over the next five years, further driving aniline demand [11][19]. Key Enterprises - The aniline industry in China is characterized by high entry barriers and is dominated by major players such as Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and Shandong Haihua, which possess integrated advantages and strong market positions [13][15]. - Wanhua Chemical leads the industry with an aniline production capacity of 2.16 million tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the national total [17]. Development Trends - The regulatory environment is becoming stricter, promoting standardized and green development within the aniline industry, with policies focusing on environmental protection and safety production [19]. - The supply-demand balance in the aniline market remains tight, with production capacity steadily increasing while new capacity additions are limited [20][21]. - China's aniline industry is expanding its export market, with increasing international competitiveness, particularly in Europe, where demand for imported aniline is rising [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is currently in a downcycle, with recent safety incidents leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical projects. Leading companies with better safety management and advanced production technologies are expected to benefit from stable production amidst supply constraints [2][3] - The recent suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park in Shandong due to a major safety incident will impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates, leading to price increases in the market [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to maintain long-term value [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a downturn, with safety incidents prompting tighter regulations on high-risk projects. Leading firms are likely to benefit from their superior safety protocols and production capabilities [2] Recent Developments - A significant safety accident at Shandong Youdao Chemical has led to the suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park, affecting the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates. This has resulted in a strong cost support for chlorantraniliprole, with market prices reaching 305,000 CNY per ton as of June 20 [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in chlorantraniliprole, such as Lier Chemical, and those with K amine, like Lianhua Technology. It also suggests looking at competitors of chlorantraniliprole, such as Yangnong Chemical [1][2] - For the upstream oil and gas sector, companies like China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Price Trends - The report tracks price movements of key chemical products, noting significant increases in diesel and Brent crude oil prices, which rose by 10.97% and 10.58% respectively over the past week [18][19] Sub-industry Dynamics - The report highlights various sub-industries, including the polyester market, which is experiencing price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes. The polyurethane market is facing weak domestic demand, while the titanium dioxide sector is seeing supply constraints due to structural adjustments [21][22]

金十图示：2025年06月23日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行股多数走高、酿酒股、汽车股、石油股全 线下跌 富时中国A50指数连续 电力行业 互联网服务 东方财富 长江电力 8 中国核电 1916.94亿市值 n in home 7457.91亿市值 3271.44亿市值 9.17亿成交额 3.74亿成交额 17.77亿成交额 9.32 20.70 30.48 +0.08(+0.26%) -0.07(-0.75%) -0.01(-0.05%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 (D 2231.91亿市值 3841.49亿市值 3233.29亿市值 3.45亿成交额 6.13亿成交额 3.14亿成交额 18.34 25.92 38.22 +0.04(+0.15%) -0.10(-0.54%) -0.29(-0.75%) 消费电子 化学制药 工业富联 立讯精密 恒瑞医药 3981.70亿市值 2402.28亿市值 3398.83亿市值 21.38亿成交额 10.26亿成交额 8.31亿成交额 51.47 20.05 33.14 -0.29(-0.56%) -0.54(-2.62 ...

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