2026 年化工策略与化工框架培训会 20260122 摘要 化工行业周期性明显，可通过销量和单吨利润两个维度进行财务模型分 析，其中单吨利润波动反映原材料与产品价差，需重点跟踪。产能周期 约十年，库存周期约 40 个月，中周期 20 年，康波周期 60 年。2016 年为上一产能周期底部，预计 2026 年或处于类似位置。 中国在全球化工业中占据主导地位，市场份额达 50%，具备低成本固定 资产投资、高效人力资源和企业家精神等优势。龙头企业通过技术积累、 成本控制和一体化产业链，不断降低成本，市场份额逐渐向少数龙头集 中。 库存水平是短期价格波动的重要指标，但需结合具体情况综合判断。中 国企业擅长长周期视角下的逆势扩张，可通过价格、开工率、竞争对手 和需求变化等指标判断市场拐点，财务指标如利润、期间费用率和自由 现金流是初步判断基础。 全球化工业供给端存在利好，包括中国产能扩张结束、海外产能退出以 及中国存量产能返利卷，这些因素共同推动中国化工业盈利竞争优势加 强。中国龙头化工企业净利率处于历史中高位，现金流充裕，具备通过 资本扩张放缓后大量分红提升投资回报的潜力。 Q&A 化工行业的研究框架和分类是怎样的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC prices are oscillating upward, but the upward momentum is currently insufficient due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [1] - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and its improvement will take time, which has a negative impact on PVC demand [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased by 0.95 percentage points, but the order volume is poor, and the willingness to stock up is low [1] - There was a rush to export in the market due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the export orders increased significantly last week. However, as the export price rises, the trading resistance increases [1] - The social inventory continued to increase, remaining at a high level with significant inventory pressure. The chemical sector sentiment improved, while the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali was under pressure, and some producers' operating expectations declined, but the current production decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,833 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,926 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,921 yuan/ton, up 2.82%. The position volume increased by 3,467 lots to 1,069,269 lots [2] - On January 23rd, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,635 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,921 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 286 yuan/ton, weakening by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by companies such as Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%. New production capacities from several companies, including Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, were put into production in the second half of 2025, and Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real - estate market is in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 18th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% month - on - month to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remained high [6]

1. 化工行业迎政策暖风，5%年增长目标定档 当前全球化工产业正经历一场由供需共振驱动的景气反转，全球化工涨价潮持续蔓延，陶氏化学等巨头 密集提价，叠加国内化工"反内卷"政策深化，共同构成了化工板块的核心投资主线，化工行业ETF易方 达（516570）凭借龙头持仓优势，精准捕捉行业红利。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）作为跟踪中证石化产业指数的核心工具，近期凭借化工板块供需格局优 化、政策利好加持及资金持续流入，走出强势上涨行情。数据显示，该基金连续5日获资金净流入，合 计超9100万元，近20日获1.5亿资金净流入。 业绩层面，中证石化产业指数近一个月回报达17.57%，近一年涨幅50.19%，大幅跑赢同期沪深300指 数，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）在化工行业景气回升周期中精准捕捉收益。 从最新持仓来看，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）前十大重仓股涵盖万华化学、中国石油、中国石化、 盐湖股份、中国海油等行业标杆，合计持仓占比具备集中度优势，精准受益于近期化工品涨价潮。 总的来说，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）近期行情主要反映了市场对政策托底、供给格局优化及行业 龙头盈利能力修复的积 ...

AI基金华安国企改革主题灵活配置混合A（001445）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润1851.18万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.1696元。报告期内， 基金净值增长率为6.08%，截至四季度末，基金规模为3.17亿元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至1月22日，单位净值为3.107元。基金经理是关鹏，目前管理的2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月22日，华安国企 改革主题灵活配置混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达18.68%；截至1月21日，华安红利机遇股票发起式A最低，为17.77%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，展望2026年，国企投资机会主要包括两方面：1.国家反内卷大背景下，将有一批国企凭借过去的能效提升和精细化管理，在落 后产能淘汰政策下脱颖而出；形成高效产能充沛现金流的良性循环，这包括化工，钢铁等多个领域；2.国有企业改革和市值管理重要性持续提升，将充分释 放国企治理红利和成本潜力，通过市场化激励，激活国企投资回报。产品在25Q4做了一定调仓，主要新增了出海，化工有色，保险，服务消费等资产。 截至1月22日，华安国企改革主题灵活配置混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为9.67%，位 ...

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The core viewpoint of the aviation industry report indicates that the demand for air travel in China remains strong, particularly during the Spring Festival travel season, with pre-sales already initiated for 2026 [3][5] - It is estimated that the passenger flow in China's civil aviation will grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [3] - The report highlights that the airline industry is entering a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a key issue, as the proportion of business travel remains below 2019 levels [3][4] Group 2: Netflix (NFLX.O) - The report on Netflix projects that the company's revenue for FY26-28 will be $51.1 billion, $57.6 billion, and $64.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2%, 12.7%, and 12.0% [7] - Netflix's content amortization cost guidance for 2026 indicates a 10% increase year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing advertising revenue and content quality [9] - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of 20.1% in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in advertising revenue projected for 2026 [8][9] Group 3: BAIC Blue Valley (北汽蓝谷) - The report provides a first coverage of BAIC Blue Valley, giving it an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 11.49 yuan, driven by dual-brand synergy and a diversified product matrix [11][26] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29 billion, 58.2 billion, and 88.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected net profit turning positive by 2027 [11][26] - BAIC Blue Valley's dual-brand strategy, focusing on the premium and luxury segments, is anticipated to drive revenue growth, with significant sales increases expected for its models [12][27]

Group 1 - The "2026 DT New Leaf Award" is a global and comprehensive award focused on innovation in the bio-based sector, aimed at discovering, showcasing, and recognizing outstanding products and companies in the bio-based industry [2] - The term "New Leaf" symbolizes vibrant life and sustainable innovation, with the award intended to highlight pioneering forces in the bio-based industry that utilize renewable biomass and green technologies to drive low-carbon development [2] - Over 30 representative companies from the bio-based industry are participating in the "2026 DT New Leaf Award" selection, with the second batch of participating companies being announced [2] Group 2 - Zhongke Guosheng (Hangzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. is a representative enterprise in the HMF-FDCA-PEF full industry chain, achieving industrial-grade production of HMF and FDCA through its self-developed "SMART" catalytic system and "short process" production scheme, significantly reducing product costs [3] - The company has established HMF full industry chain technology and provides stable quality products and technical support for clients in high-barrier packaging, special flame-retardant fibers, bio-based fibers, and adhesives [3] - Guangdong Hengcarbon Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on "carbon science and carbon balance," producing high-value-added chemicals and high-performance materials, with its innovative "three non" bio-based technology for producing 1,3-propanediol [5] Group 3 - Jun'an Green New Materials Technology (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and production of non-grain bio-based new materials, utilizing proprietary technologies for the targeted separation of biomass components [8] - The company is the only one globally capable of commercial-scale production of high-activity lignin, with a 10,000-ton production line under construction, expected to be operational in the first half of 2027 [9] - Hainan Baikori Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is dedicated to non-grain bio-manufacturing and the production of biodegradable new materials, with a focus on creating biodegradable cushioning packaging materials [11] Group 4 - Jiangsu Huacheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. aims to develop a synthetic biology research platform and product commercialization, producing high-purity bio-based pigments through fermentation [13] - The bio-based pigments are certified by USDA as 100% bio-based, providing a low-carbon dyeing solution for the textile industry with excellent material compatibility [13] - Bipu Instruments (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. specializes in intelligent testing for biodegradability, offering an automatic biodegradation testing system that meets various international standards [15][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: January 23, 2026 [1] - Report title: LPG: Internal and External Markets Resonate and Rise; Propylene: Spot Market Maintains Tight Balance [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Not provided in the report Group 4: Fundamental Data Futures Market - LPG (PG) futures: On January 22, 2026, the closing prices of PG2602, PG2603, and PG2604 were 4,199, 4,134, and 4,398 respectively, with daily increases of 0.91%, 1.60%, and 1.20% [2] - Propylene (PL) futures: On January 22, 2026, the closing prices of PL2602, PL2603, and PL2604 were 6,021, 6,132, and 6,167 respectively, with daily increases of 2.12%, 2.32%, and 2.27% [2] Spot Market - LPG spot: On January 22, 2026, the prices of Shandong civil, East China imported, East China civil, South China imported, South China civil, Shandong ether - after, and FEI to - shore were 4,480, 4,914, 4,428, 4,910, 4,815, 4,360, and 5,025 respectively [2] - Propylene spot: On January 22, 2026, the prices of Shandong and East China were 6,175 and 6,325 respectively [2] Industrial Chain Start - up Rates - As of January 23, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 62.25%, a decrease of 10.82% compared to last week; the alkylation start - up rate was 36.42%, unchanged; the MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, an increase of 0.44% [2] LPG Shipment Volumes - On January 22, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume was 23.9 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons compared to the previous day; the Asian shipment volume was 9.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.7 million tons; the Chinese shipment volume was 4.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity: 1; Propylene trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Group 6: Market Information - On January 22, 2026, the February CP paper cargo prices for propane and butane were 540 and 523 US dollars per ton respectively, both up 9 US dollars per ton compared to the previous trading day; the March CP paper cargo price for propane was 531 US dollars per ton, up 9 US dollars per ton [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans [7][8]

Group 1: Market Trends - The chemical sector experienced a significant rise, with various sub-sectors benefiting from positive news, including futures prices for chemical products showing strong upward trends [1] - Key chemical products such as butadiene rubber, ethylene glycol, and styrene saw price increases of 4.69%, 4.51%, and 4.07% respectively [1] - The domestic potassium chloride market is showing a "stable yet strong" trend due to reduced domestic supply and increased import costs [1] Group 2: Specific Chemicals - The price of a key intermediate for disperse dyes, 2-chloro-4-nitroaniline, rose over 50% from 25,000 yuan per ton to 38,000 yuan [2] - Glyphosate is experiencing a market rebound due to rising export costs and the upcoming spring farming season, leading to increased volume and price [2] - Titanium dioxide profitability is expected to recover as over 40% of domestic production is for export, influenced by overseas real estate market conditions [2] Group 3: Industry Developments - The chemical industry is expected to see a turning point as the government promotes carbon peak initiatives and limits on high-energy-consuming products are anticipated [2] - The Ministry of Finance has canceled export tax rebates for certain chemicals to accelerate the exit of outdated capacities and promote high-quality development in the chemical sector [2] - The chemical ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a total of 9.427 billion yuan over 16 days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 4: Index Performance - The CSI sub-sector chemical industry index rose by 1.48%, with significant gains from stocks like Jian Technology and Longbai Group [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index account for 45.31% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among leading companies [3]

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 0.90% from January 10 to January 16, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.57%, by 1.47 percentage points, ranking 8th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included rubber additives (5.80%), synthetic resins (4.90%), potassium fertilizers (4.85%), textile chemicals (3.03%), and carbon black (2.91%) [1][2] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were liquid chlorine (133.33%), industrial-grade lithium carbonate (12.69%), battery-grade lithium carbonate (12.33%), propylene oxide (8.86%), and coal tar (Shanxi Dongyi) (8.53%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines were hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) (-25.00%), concentrated nitric acid (Jinhe Industry) (-8.82%), crude phenol (-7.97%), hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (-7.69%), and hydrogen peroxide (-6.25%) [3] Industry Dynamics - Some refrigerant companies announced profit growth forecasts for 2025, with Sanmei Co. expecting a net profit of 1.99 to 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155.66% to 176.11%, and Yonghe Co. forecasting a net profit of 530 to 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.87% to 150.66% [4] - The competitive landscape for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) is expected to continue improving, with price increases being a major factor for profit growth [4] - As of January 16, the market prices for mainstream third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a in East China were 62,500, 48,000, and 56,000 yuan per ton, respectively, with increases of 0%, 7%, and 7% since Q4 2025, and year-to-date increases of 44%, 22%, and 37% [4] Investment Recommendations - Current investment focus areas include the refrigerant sector, with recommendations for Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [6] - The chemical fiber sector is also highlighted, with suggested companies including Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [6] - Other recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - The tire sector recommendations include Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [6] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, recommended companies are Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [6] - High-quality growth targets include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [6] - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant acquisitions in the PEEK industry, indicating a trend of consolidation among leading companies [2][5]. - Newhan New Materials announced the acquisition of the PEEK company, Hairete, signaling a shift in market dynamics [2]. - Han Jian Heshan is planning to acquire 52.51% of Liaoning Xingfu New Materials Co., Ltd., which specializes in the research, production, and sales of aromatic products, including PEEK intermediates [2][5]. Group 2 - Xingfu New Materials, established in 2014, has a registered capital of approximately 221 million yuan and focuses on a complete industrial chain for PEEK intermediates [2][5]. - In 2024, Xingfu New Materials reported a revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 34.13%, and a net profit loss of 736,700 yuan, marking a 100.54% decrease [5]. - The company's PEEK intermediates have a production capacity utilization rate of only 48.88% [5]. Group 3 - The specialized production capacity for PEEK intermediates (DFBP) is 4,900 tons per year, making it a leading supplier to major companies like BASF and Bayer [4]. - Xingfu New Materials' PEEK intermediates have a gross margin of 14.3%, while its PEEK purification business has a gross margin of 34.58% [5][6]. - Han Jian Heshan's main business includes the production of prestressed concrete pipes and environmental protection services, indicating a diverse operational focus [6].