Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The long-term processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026 has been set to zero, highlighting a significant downward adjustment from 2025's benchmark of $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound, indicating a structural contradiction between copper supply and smelting demand [7] - Traditional copper demand is stabilizing while emerging sectors are showing significant growth, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a 28.9% increase in copper demand from clean energy sources by 2024 compared to 2021, suggesting a continued upward trend in copper prices due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [7] - The pessimistic expectations regarding smelting fees have been addressed, and there is potential for marginal improvement in processing fees as major copper mines like Grasberg and Cobre Panamá are expected to resume operations, contributing to supply increases [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, particularly copper, and discusses the dynamics of supply and demand in these sectors [2][4] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its substantial resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable mentions include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [7] - For the copper smelting sector, Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) is highlighted as a major player with improved self-sufficiency expectations, alongside Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) [7]

Group 1 - The "stock-futures linkage" effect is significant, with major futures contracts for copper, gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, and lithium carbonate futures surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is strong, with leading companies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum both hitting historical highs in stock prices, with market values of 886.8 billion yuan and 421.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is gaining strength, driving a rebound in the new energy sector, with leading stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply, Molybdenum, and BYD experiencing significant increases [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal sector is rising, with precious and industrial metals also showing upward trends [2][3] - Specific stocks in the industrial sector, such as Guocheng Mining and Jiangxi Copper, have seen substantial increases, with Guocheng Mining up by 10.01% and Jiangxi Copper up by 9.97% [4] - The copper market is expected to see continued upward pressure due to ongoing adjustments in global copper inventory and supply shortages, with forecasts indicating a potential price increase [6] Group 3 - The new energy sector is rebounding, driven by the rise in lithium battery supply chains, photovoltaics, and energy storage, with stocks like Enjie and BYD showing strong performance [10] - Two main catalysts for the rebound include the significant rise in lithium carbonate futures and the recent announcements of production cuts by major cathode material manufacturers, which are expected to stabilize prices [10] - The lithium battery supply chain is emerging from a clearing and destocking phase, with demand growth remaining unexpectedly high, indicating a recovery in the overall industry [11]

主要股指突然走低。 | 今开 | 3957.83 | 最高 | | 3977.71 | 成交量 | 3.63亿手 | 涨跌额 | -7.53 | 振幅 | 0.81% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 3959.62 | 最低 | | 3945.52 | 成交额 | 5894.07亿 > | 涨跌幅 | -0.19% | 量比 | 1.45 | | | 分时 | 更日 | 日K | 園K | 月K | 更多v | | | 6 高级工具 | | ④ AI技术追踪 | | | 3977.60 | | | | | | | | | | | 0.45% | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.05% | | 3945.90 | | | | | | | | | | | -0.35% | | 09:30 | | | | | | 11:30/13:00 | | | | | 15:00 | | 15. 4 . 1770 . | | | | | | | | | | | | A股市 ...

Market Overview - On December 26, the A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.19% to 3952.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.17% to 13554.07 points [2][3] - The trading volume reached 1.47 trillion yuan, with a predicted total turnover of 2.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 381.3 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The lithium battery supply chain, precious metals, and basic metals sectors showed strong performance, while sectors such as photolithography machines, electronic components, and communication equipment faced declines [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, with companies like Hainan Mining, Guocheng Mining, and Shenzhen New Star hitting the daily limit, while others like Luoyang Molybdenum, China Aluminum, and Zijin Mining also experienced increases [5][6] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector continued to rise, with stocks like Guanglian Aviation increasing by over 10%, and Tongyu Communication and Aerospace Development reaching their daily limit [8][9] - The market sentiment is bolstered by the expectation of a global boom in the commercial aerospace industry over the next two years, driven by accelerated technological iterations and increasing demand for launch services and satellite networking [10]

主要股指突然走低。 A股市场今天（12月26日）早盘震荡走强，临近午盘（11:13），主要股指小幅跳水，上证指数、创业板指等翻绿。 盘面上，有色金属和电力设备板块个股掀起涨停潮，成为上午A股市场两大亮点。 沪指突然翻绿 两大板块大涨 A股市场早盘震荡走强，临近午盘（11:13），主要股指小幅跳水，上证指数、创业板指等翻绿。截至午间收盘，上证指数下跌 0.19%，深证成指上涨0.17%，创业板指下跌0.15%，科创50指数下跌0.51%，北证50指数微涨0.08%。 | 今开 | 3957.83 | 最高 | | 3977.71 | 成交量 | 3.63亿手 | 涨跌额 | -7.53 | 振幅 | | 0.81% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 3959.62 | 最低 | | 3945.52 | 成交额 | 5894.07亿 V | 涨跌幅 | -0.19% | 量比 | | 1.45 | | 分时 | 更日 | 日K | 園K | 月K | 更多い | | | 6 高级工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with major indices showing mixed performance, highlighting significant movements in specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals and electric power equipment [2][4][9]. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a substantial increase, with the index rising over 3% during the session. Notable stocks included Yongxing Materials, Guocheng Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Shenzhen New Star, all hitting the daily limit up [9][10]. - The electric power equipment sector also experienced a surge, with stocks like Haike Xinyuan and Xiexin Integration reaching their daily limit up [11]. - Other sectors such as steel and retail also showed strength during the trading session [12]. Market Indices - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.17%. The ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index both declined by 0.15% and 0.51%, respectively [4]. Trading Volume and Activity - The trading volume reached 3.63 billion shares, with a total turnover of 589.41 billion yuan. The market showed a fluctuation amplitude of 0.81% [5]. Stock Highlights - Several stocks experienced consecutive limit-ups, including Luzhou Investment and Wuzhou Special Paper, indicating strong market interest and potential volatility [17][18][19]. - The performance of Guotou Silver LOF raised concerns as it faced consecutive trading halts, reflecting significant price volatility [20][21][23].

东方证券发布研报称，2026年铜精矿长单加工费归零，凸显铜矿供给与冶炼端结构性矛盾。传统需求筑 底叠加新兴领域强劲增长，矿端供不应求局面或将延续，支撑铜价中枢。中期随大型矿山复产及国内冶 炼行业调整，加工费或存边际改善空间。建议关注资源型矿企与自给率提升的冶炼龙头。 东方证券主要观点如下： 尽管中期铜精矿供小于求局面或不改，但从边际角度来看供给端与冶炼端供需矛盾或有改善潜力。当前 全球第二大铜矿Grasberg已宣布重启和复产计划，产量有望在26-27年持续增长，可供应全球约1.5%铜 矿产量的第一量子旗下Cobre Panamá铜矿的重启谈判也有望于26年初开启。该行认为，在中期矿端干扰 被逐渐排除的情况下，如Grasberg、Cobre Panamá等铜矿的重新恢复正常生产或将显著贡献矿端增量， 从而缓和铜矿供给与铜冶炼之间的供需矛盾，叠加国内铜冶炼"反内卷"措施出台落地的预期，铜精矿现 货加工费有望向上改善。该行看好铜冶炼企业在缓和预期下盈利改善的潜力，继续看好中期矿价与冶炼 费边际同涨。 投资建议与投资标的 铜矿端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业（601899） (601 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3952.09, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.17% to 13554.07, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% to 3234.63 [4][6] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 251.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The AI industry chain experienced a collective pullback, with sectors like CPO, liquid cooling, and high-speed copper concepts leading the declines [4][6] - The lithium battery industry chain surged, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [4][10] - The commercial aerospace sector showed mixed performance, with some stocks hitting the daily limit [8] Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining reached a historical high, increasing by 3.47% to 33.14 yuan [11] - Hunan Silver and other precious metal stocks saw gains, with Hunan Silver rising over 3% [17] - The stock of Xiangri Technology fell over 16% after receiving a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15][16] Commodity Market - The futures market saw significant movements, with palladium futures rising over 8% and platinum futures hitting the daily limit with a 9.99% increase [20][21] - Spot gold prices exceeded $4530 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver prices surpassed $75 per ounce [19]

从资金净流入方面来看，截至12月25日，A500ETF南方(159352)近17天获得连续资金净流入。 银河证券表示，伴随经济再平衡进程推进、温和再通胀格局形成，叠加内外环境阶段性改善，2026年投 资中国股票市场有望获得显著超额回报，资本市场将在新旧动能转换中发挥核心枢纽作用，带动中长期 资金入市与居民存款搬家形成正向循环。该行资产配置框架显示，在房价逐步触底、汇率稳步升值的双 重积极信号下，中国大类资产配置将从第四象限迈入第一象限，股票资产将成为本轮周期的核心受益品 种。这一判断背后，是经济基本面改善、政策协同发力、外部环境缓和三大核心支撑逻辑的共振。 A500ETF南方(159352)紧密跟踪的中证A500指数覆盖A股大中盘优质蓝筹企业，均衡分布于新兴制造、 消费升级等核心领域，重点布局先进生产力。 中证A500指数对标国际指数，映射中国价值。对标标普500，编制理念上，均以"全市场代表性+优质筛 选"为核心；成分股构成上，全行业覆盖+均衡分布，贴合经济核心；历史表现上，长期收益稳健，适 配长钱配置。 截至2025年12月26日午间收盘，A500ETF南方(159352)上涨0.24%， 冲击6连涨。换 ...

有色矿业ETF招商（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，集中投资于拥有上游矿产资源的企业，包括北方 稀土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、山东黄金等拥有大量资源储量的公司。截至最新收 盘日，有色矿业指数年内涨幅达96.03%，同期有色金属行业指数涨幅87.05%，相比同类指数锐度更 强。 华龙证券认为，黄金与长期美债实际利率的负相关框架解释力逐步弱化，其背后是美元及美国信用的弱 化，黄金作为避险资产的性质得到加强。工业金属方面，市场对2026年中国铜需求较乐观，预期将保持 一定韧性，看好2026年以铜为代表的工业金属表现。 东方证券认为，金铜铝铁权益端涨幅明显滞后商品端，板块对应明年估值也处于较低水平。随着后续商 品价格持续新高，市场对金铜铝铁中期价格上行预期有望不断强化，上周短期波动后，权益板块有望在 需求推动下维持中期上涨，可积极关注相关板块的投资机会。 格隆汇12月26日｜商品价格全面爆发！12月26日，伦敦现银日内突破75美元/盎司，再创历史新高；国 际铜连续主力合约日内涨4%，报89160元。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）一度涨超4%，盘中刷新上市以来新高，成份股永兴材料、江西铜业涨 ...