证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 联系人 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 发改委支持 REITs 底层资产扩围，成交继续边际走弱 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/11/29-25/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.4%、深证成指上升 1.3%、创业板指上升 1.9%、沪深 300 上升 1.3%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅 前五的分别为：中国武夷(+10.2%)、华联控股(+7.4%)、华夏幸福(+7.1%)、 宁波富达(+5.7%)、财信发展(+5.6%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：三湘印象 (-12.9%)、ST 中迪(-11.5%)、沙河股份(-8.7%)、深振业 A(-8.4%)、新华 联(-8.3%)。 板块表现： 数据跟 ...

Core Insights - Beike Group has launched Beihome as a data-driven residential development service platform, focusing on the C2M (Customer to Manufacturer) model to enhance housing supply and meet consumer needs [1][2][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new real estate development model, promoting high-quality development and a balance between supply and demand [2][12] - Beihome has successfully implemented 17 C2M model cooperation projects across various cities, demonstrating the effectiveness of its data-driven approach [2][3][12] Group 1 - Beihome's C2M model integrates data analysis and AI algorithms to predict customer preferences and optimize product positioning [3][4][5] - The platform aims to create "good houses" that align with consumer demands, moving from a focus on availability to quality [3][12] - The C2M model allows for customer participation in the entire development process, enhancing engagement and satisfaction [3][4] Group 2 - Beihome's projects, such as Chengdu Beichen S1 and Shanghai Beilian C1, showcase the successful application of the C2M model, achieving strong sales and market recognition [4][9][12] - The platform's data capabilities include comprehensive market data, customer insights, and feasibility studies, forming a robust foundation for decision-making [5][11] - Beihome plans to expand its operations in major cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuhan, continuing to leverage the C2M model for future developments [11][12]

Group 1: Fixed Income Strategy - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield may drop to 1.6-1.7% in 2026, based on various economic indicators and trends [3][4] - Factors influencing this prediction include economic growth, inflation, and the trend of interest rates, with a potential decline in financing costs by 10 basis points [3] - The report suggests a strategic allocation towards long-term bonds, particularly in the first quarter of 2026, while noting potential uncertainties in policy and market conditions thereafter [4] Group 2: Light Industry Manufacturing - Hars (002615.SZ) - Hars is identified as a leading manufacturer of thermal cups, focusing on both OEM and its own brand development, with a strong competitive position in the market [5] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 142 million, 292 million, and 371 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -50.6%, +106.0%, and +27.3% respectively [5] - The report assigns a "buy" rating with a target P/E of 16x for 2025, indicating confidence in the company's ability to navigate cost pressures and enhance profitability as its overseas operations ramp up [5] Group 3: Food and Beverage - Three Squirrels - The report discusses the opening of the first flagship store of Three Squirrels, which aims to create a community retail space with a focus on a diverse product range including fresh and prepared foods [6][9] - The store features a selection of 1,500 SKUs, with a pricing strategy that offers better value compared to competitors, indicating a strong market demand as evidenced by initial sales exceeding 1.26 million yuan within three days of opening [9] - This new store format is a strategic move towards a "full category + hard discount" approach, aiming to expand the company's market presence and optimize its supply chain [9] Group 4: Real Estate Sector Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized a stable economic approach for 2026, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [10][11] - The report suggests that the real estate sector remains a key economic indicator, with potential for policy-driven recovery, particularly in first and second-tier cities [11] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading real estate companies and local state-owned enterprises, as well as property management firms that are likely to benefit from the anticipated policy shifts [11]

Core Insights - The recent land auction in Shenzhen saw intense competition, with the total sales amounting to 39.52 billion yuan for two residential plots, indicating strong demand for prime real estate in the area [2][10]. Group 1: Auction Details - On December 8, two residential plots were successfully auctioned in Shenzhen, located in Nanshan and Guangming districts, with a starting total price of 30.02 billion yuan [2]. - The Nanshan plot was won by China Overseas Land & Investment for 31.86 billion yuan after 95 rounds of bidding, resulting in a floor price of approximately 77,400 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 42.49% [2][4]. - The Guangming plot was acquired by Longfor Group at the base price of 7.66 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The Nanshan plot is strategically located near major corporate headquarters and has a compact size of approximately 11,800 square meters, with a total construction area of about 41,184 square meters [4]. - The area has limited residential offerings, with the only new housing project priced at an average of 133,000 yuan per square meter, while second-hand listings range from 140,000 to 180,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - China Overseas has now secured two residential plots in the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base area, reinforcing its position in the high-end market [6][8]. Group 3: Overall Land Supply Trends - Shenzhen has successfully auctioned 11 residential plots this year, covering an area of 229,400 square meters and generating over 28 billion yuan in total sales [10]. - The highest premium rate recorded was 86.1% for a plot in Qianhai, while the highest total price was 8.64 billion yuan for a plot in Bao'an, indicating a competitive land market [10]. - The overall trend in land supply across the country shows a reduction in quantity but an increase in quality, with a 16% year-on-year decrease in residential land transactions in 300 cities from January to November [12].

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the latest net asset value (NAV) rankings of various funds, highlighting the top-performing and bottom-performing funds in the market [1][2][3]. Fund Performance Summary - The top 10 funds with the highest NAV growth include: 1. 财通成长优选混合C: 2.3210, growth of 5.89% 2. 财通成长优选混合A: 4.0380, growth of 5.87% 3. 财通集成电路产业股票C: 3.8058, growth of 5.78% 4. 财通集成电路产业股票A: 4.0255, growth of 5.78% 5. 德邦鑫星价值灵活配置混合C: 3.6942, growth of 5.47% 6. 德邦鑫星价值灵活配置混合A: 3.8436, growth of 5.47% 7. 财通价值动量混合C: 2.1530, growth of 5.44% 8. 财通价值动量混合A: 8.2670, growth of 5.43% 9. 财通品质甄选混合C: 1.0591, growth of 5.35% 10. 财通品质甄选混合A: 1.0595, growth of 5.35% [2]. - The bottom 10 funds with the lowest NAV growth include: 1. 华泰柏瑞港股通时代机遇混合A: 0.5709, decline of 4.07% 2. 华泰柏瑞港股通时代机遇混合C: 0.5545, decline of 4.05% 3. 长城价值甄选一年持有混合C: 1.2077, decline of 3.91% 4. 长城价值甄选一年持有混合A: 1.2437, decline of 3.90% 5. 泰康资源精选股票发起C: 1.3434, decline of 3.79% 6. 泰康资源精选股票发起A: 1.3494, decline of 3.79% 7. 长城周期优选混合发起式C: 1.2866, decline of 3.61% 8. 长城周期优选混合发起式A: 1.2966, decline of 3.61% 9. 中欧资源精选混合发起C: 1.6726, decline of 3.58% 10. 中欧资源精选混合发起A: 1.6734, decline of 3.58% [3]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and continued to decline, while the ChiNext Index experienced a brief rise before closing slightly up. The total trading volume reached 1.91 trillion, with a market breadth of 1308 gainers to 4058 losers [5]. - Leading sectors included communication equipment and diversified industries, both showing gains of over 3% [5]. - The hotel and restaurant sector, along with non-ferrous metals, were among the worst performers, with declines exceeding 3% [6]. Fund Holdings and Strategy - The top holdings of the best-performing fund, 财通成长优选混合C, showed a concentration of 86.53% in its top ten stocks, with significant gains in companies like 鼎泰高科 and 生益科技 [7]. - Conversely, the poorly performing fund, 华泰柏瑞港股通时代机遇混合A, had a lower concentration of 52.02% in its top ten holdings, with notable declines in stocks like 中国金茂 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Real estate companies are intensifying promotional efforts as they approach the end of 2025, driven by increased supply of quality properties and favorable policies [1][3]. Group 1: Promotional Strategies - Various promotional activities are being launched, including fixed-price homes, exclusive subsidies for car and home purchases, and appliance gift packages, providing tangible benefits to buyers [2][3]. - Developers are diversifying their sales channels, increasingly utilizing live streaming platforms for immersive online presentations and real-time interactions to attract potential buyers [2][3][7]. - The year-end is identified as a critical period for real estate companies to finalize their annual performance, leading to a consensus in the industry to implement aggressive promotional strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Discount Structures - Discounts are being linked to payment ratios, with higher upfront payments resulting in greater discounts, a common incentive to encourage cash flow [4]. - Specific projects, such as those by Longfor Group, are offering significant discounts on select unit types, with promotions like "Double 12 Home Buying Festival" and special pricing for certain square footage [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a competitive landscape characterized by an oversupply, prompting developers to adopt a "offline discounts + online traffic" strategy to reach more customers [8][9]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicates that the top 20 real estate companies in Beijing achieved a total sales amount of 280.62 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.16% [9][10]. - The performance of different companies varies, with some, like China Overseas Land & Investment and Yuexiu Property, showing significant sales growth due to strategic project placements and popular offerings [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current sales stability and slight growth in the market are seen as a foundation for a positive start in 2026, suggesting that the ongoing promotional efforts may lead to a strong market entry in the new year [10][12]. - The activation of basic housing demand is expected to rely on both the quality of products offered by developers and potential regulatory support to rebuild buyer confidence [11][12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 49 周） 重庆发布"好房子"建设支持新政，万科公 推荐（维持） 布债务展期议案 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,299.23 | 1.03 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,793.16 | 1.23 | | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.9% | 10.8% | -9.5% | | 相对表现 | -2.6% | -8.5% | -25.8% | | | 2024-12-0 ...

2025.12. 09 本文字数：2263，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马一凡 无论是土地出让时的具体要求，还是地方政府明确出台"限高令"，这一系列转变，都意味着曾经在南 方城市常见的超高层住宅发展将迎来重大转折，房地产市场格局或因此改变。 业内专家认为，当前政策通过限高80米、容积率控制以及消防审查等手段引导市场转向，未来低密 度和小高层类型的住宅将成为市场主流。 多城开始对新建住宅"限高80米" 12月1日，成都市公共资源交易服务中心挂出一则拍地公告，共涉及四宗住宅用地。在"规划设计条 件"一栏，公告对于建筑物高度的限制要求十分显眼：有两宗宅地的要求均是建筑高度不超过80米， 另一宗为不超过60米，还有一宗要求不超过54米。 第一财经记者注意到，近几个月来，在多个一二线城市的土地出让中，均有住宅地块的出让要求里写 明了"建筑物地上限高80米"。 按照传统的住宅每层楼高3米来计算，建筑物地面上限高80米，就意味着整栋楼不超过26层；如果按 部分城市"好房子"的标准，室内层高净高3米，那么加上楼板厚度，每层楼高度计3.2米，那么整栋住 宅楼则不超过25层。 在上海今年10月的第八批次土拍中，杨浦东 ...

Core Viewpoint - Real estate companies are intensifying promotional efforts as they approach the end of the year, with various discount activities being launched to attract buyers and boost sales performance [1][10]. Group 1: Promotional Strategies - Developers are offering significant discounts, including fixed-price homes and appliance packages, to provide tangible benefits to buyers [3][4]. - The marketing strategies have evolved to include online platforms, with developers utilizing live streaming to engage potential customers and showcase properties [7][8]. - The year-end promotional activities are a common practice among real estate firms, aimed at achieving annual sales targets despite potential pressure on profit margins [5][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a competitive landscape with an oversupply of properties, leading to a need for diversified marketing approaches [8][11]. - Data indicates that the top 20 real estate companies in Beijing have shown a slight increase in sales, highlighting a "stronger getting stronger" trend in the market [11][10]. - Some companies, like China Overseas Land & Investment and Yuexiu Property, have successfully leveraged their project portfolios to drive sales growth, while others have struggled to maintain performance [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market conditions are setting a positive foundation for 2026, with expectations for a strong start to the year based on stable sales performance [10][12]. - There remains a fundamental demand for housing, particularly among first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions, which could be activated through quality offerings and supportive regulatory measures [12].

不少城市已规定，新建住宅建筑若超过80米高度需进行消防救援评估，征求同级消防救援机构意见。 近期，不少一二线城市开始对新建住宅项目的高度进行严格限制，多数都要求建筑高度不超过80米，超 限则需进行消防救援评估审查。 无论是土地出让时的具体要求，还是地方政府明确出台"限高令"，这一系列转变，都意味着曾经在南方 城市常见的超高层住宅发展将迎来重大转折，房地产市场格局或因此改变。 业内专家认为，当前政策通过限高80米、容积率控制以及消防审查等手段引导市场转向，未来低密度和 小高层类型的住宅将成为市场主流。 多城开始对新建住宅"限高80米" 12月1日，成都市公共资源交易服务中心挂出一则拍地公告，共涉及四宗住宅用地。在"规划设计条 件"一栏，公告对于建筑物高度的限制要求十分显眼：有两宗宅地的要求均是建筑高度不超过80米，另 一宗为不超过60米，还有一宗要求不超过54米。 第一财经记者注意到，近几个月来，在多个一二线城市的土地出让中，均有住宅地块的出让要求里写明 了"建筑物地上限高80米"。 按照传统的住宅每层楼高3米来计算，建筑物地面上限高80米，就意味着整栋楼不超过26层；如果按部 分城市"好房子"的标准，室内层高 ...