Market Overview - On September 25, the aviation and airport sector declined by 0.11% compared to the previous trading day, with CITIC Heli leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation and airport sector showed mixed performance, with China Eastern Airlines up by 0.99% to 4.09, and Xiamen Airport down by 0.97% to 14.29 [1][2] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks were significant, with China Eastern Airlines recording a turnover of 390 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 283 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 103 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow indicated that Southern Airlines had a net inflow of 8.66 million yuan from institutional investors, while China National Airlines faced a net outflow of 51.88 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Northwest Civil Aviation has successfully implemented the "first flight service" initiative over the past four years, significantly enhancing both social and economic benefits in the region [1][2][4]. Group 1: Service Implementation and Impact - Since the launch of the first flight service in September 2021, over 200,000 first-time passengers have been served across 24 airports in Northwest China, receiving more than 5,900 commendations from travelers [1]. - The estimated sales of exclusive tickets for first-time passengers by airlines have exceeded 500 million yuan, indicating a substantial economic impact [1]. - The overall reputation of civil aviation services in the Northwest has improved significantly, reflecting the success of the first flight service initiative [1]. Group 2: Brand Development and Recognition - The "first flight service" brand has gained prominence, with various airlines and airports developing a series of related service products, such as "Saintly Care" at Yan'an Airport and "Easy First Flight" at Hanzhong Airport, which have won multiple awards in national and industry service competitions [2]. - The "Flying Oriole" team at Ningxia Airport was recognized as a "National Worker Pioneer," showcasing the recognition of first flight service initiatives [2]. Group 3: Service Expansion and Community Engagement - The scope of first flight services has expanded to include assistance at parking lots, bus stations, and high-speed rail stations, ensuring comprehensive support for first-time travelers [3]. - Initiatives like the "Flying Out of the Mountains" program invite local schoolchildren to experience air travel, promoting aviation awareness and dreams among the youth [3]. - The service now includes first-time transfers, intermodal travel, and international flights, broadening the support for new travelers [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework and Future Outlook - The establishment of a comprehensive service guarantee system is underway, with guidelines and industry standards being developed to enhance first flight services [4]. - The civil aviation sector is committed to optimizing service supply and increasing the willingness of the public to travel by air, contributing to the growth of China's aviation population and boosting air travel consumption [4]. - As China progresses towards its second centenary goal, the Northwest Civil Aviation aims to continue improving first flight services, ensuring a warm and smooth experience for new travelers [4].

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 0.24% on September 24, with China National Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) rose by 3.93% to close at 23.03, with a trading volume of 378,700 shares and a turnover of 856 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) increased by 0.50% to 4.05, with a trading volume of 788,000 shares and a turnover of 317 million yuan [1] - China National Airlines (601111) fell by 1.28% to 7.71, with a trading volume of 631,400 shares and a turnover of 486 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 48.82 million yuan from institutional investors and 14.73 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 63.56 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for individual stocks showed: - CITIC Hainan Airlines had a net inflow of 81.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - China National Airlines experienced a net outflow of 5.92 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) had a net inflow of 7.17 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is entering a "super cycle" due to the recovery of supply and demand, with passenger load factors exceeding 2019 levels and expected to continue improving [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market for airline ticket prices is becoming more liberalized, allowing for better transmission of high load factors to ticket prices [2] - The growth rate of airline fleets is slowing, reducing the negative impact of increased investment in third and fourth-tier cities on ticket prices [2] - The demand for air travel in China is still in its early stages, with low frequency and penetration, indicating a long-term growth trend [2] Group 2: Seasonal Performance - In Q3, despite a temporary decline in business and commercial demand, profitability is still expected to exceed that of Q3 2019 [3][4] - The recovery of business demand in September is anticipated to set a historical high for the month, with domestic ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to drive strong travel demand, with airlines optimistic about pre-sale volumes and prices [5] - Continuous monitoring of business demand recovery post-October meetings is crucial, as sustained recovery could significantly elevate airline profitability by 2026 [5] - The Chinese aviation sector is expected to maintain strict control over flight schedules, which will help airlines reduce losses and improve profitability in the medium term [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The long-term logic of the aviation "super cycle" suggests significant potential for performance and valuation growth, recommending strategic investment in high-quality airline networks [6] - Preferred stocks include China National Aviation (601111.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [6]

Group 1 - The central weather station issued an orange alert for Typhoon Haikui, which is expected to make landfall in Guangdong between Zhuhai and Zhanjiang on September 24, with wind speeds of 40-48 m/s [1] - Multiple airlines have announced flight cancellations due to the typhoon, including China Southern Airlines, which canceled all flights at Huizhou Pingtan Airport on September 23 and 24, and all flights at Taipei Taoyuan Airport on September 23 [1][2] - Cathay Pacific announced the suspension of all inbound and outbound flights in Hong Kong starting from September 23 at 6 PM, with over 500 flights expected to be canceled [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong Airlines will cancel all flights from September 23 at 6 PM to September 25 at 6 AM, with several airports issuing suspension notices [3] - Shenzhen Airport will suspend operations starting from September 23 at 8 PM, with the resumption time dependent on the typhoon's impact [3][4] - As of September 23 at 10 AM, flight cancellations included 201 at Zhuhai Jinwan Airport (61% cancellation rate), 55 at Macau Airport (38%), 400 at Hong Kong Airport (46%), 529 at Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (41%), and 63 at Huizhou Pingtan Airport (71%) [4]

2025.09. 23 本文字数：1251，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 中央气象台9月23日10时继续发布台风橙色预警：今年第18号台风"桦加沙"（超强台风级）的中心今 天（23日）上午10点钟位于广东省阳江市东偏南方向约640公里的南海北部海面上，预计将于24日 中午到晚上在广东珠海到湛江一带沿海登陆（台风级或强台风级，13-15级，40-48米/秒）。 据记者了解，此次超强台风主要影响珠海金湾、深圳宝安、香港、澳门、广州白云、惠州平潭、揭阳 潮汕、高雄小港、台北桃园、福州长乐、厦门高崎、湛江吴川、海口美兰机场的航班运行。为此，多 家航空公司发布了航班取消的计划。 其中， 南航 表示，23日、24日在惠州平潭机场的航班全部取消；23日在台北桃园机场的航班全部 取消；24日在澳门机场的航班全部取消；同时提前取消23日进出珠海金湾机场航班21班；取消23日 在香港机场的CZ603、CZ604、CZ5009航班，24日航班全部取消；深圳宝安机场23日出港航班起 飞时间安排在20:00前执行，23日进港航班落地时间安排在18:30前执行。 主基地位于中国香港的 国泰航空 也宣布，自23日下午6时 ...

Core Points - Multiple airlines have implemented ticket refund and change policies due to the impact of Typhoon Haikashan [1][7] Group 1: Typhoon Impact on Airlines - Typhoon Haikashan, a super typhoon, is expected to make landfall in Guangdong, affecting numerous airports including Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Macau [1] - China Southern Airlines has canceled all flights at Huizhou Pingtan Airport on September 23 and 24, and all flights at Taipei Taoyuan Airport on September 23 [1] - Cathay Pacific announced the suspension of all inbound and outbound flights in Hong Kong starting from September 23 at 6 PM, with over 500 flights expected to be canceled [2] - Hong Kong Express has arranged for early departures for four flights on September 23 and will cancel over 100 flights between September 23 and 25 [3] - Hong Kong Airlines will cancel all flights from September 23 at 6 PM to September 25 at 6 AM [4] Group 2: Flight Cancellations and Statistics - As of September 23, flight cancellations include 201 at Zhuhai Jinwan Airport (61% cancellation rate), 55 at Macau Airport (38%), 400 at Hong Kong Airport (46%), 529 at Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (41%), and 63 at Huizhou Pingtan Airport (71%) [6] - Shenzhen Airport will suspend operations starting from September 23 at 8 PM, with resumption dependent on the typhoon's impact [4][5] Group 3: Ticket Policies - Airlines including China Southern and Spring Airlines have introduced policies for ticket changes and refunds for affected passengers [7] - Eastern Airlines has specific rules for passengers whose flights are impacted, allowing free changes and refunds for tickets purchased before September 22 [9][10] - China Southern Airlines has also outlined voluntary change and refund rules for tickets involving affected routes, allowing for free changes and refunds under certain conditions [11][12][13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Aviation Industry in China Key Points - The profitability trend in the Chinese aviation industry is on the rise, driven by market-driven ticket pricing and a slowdown in fleet growth [1][2][3] - Domestic ticket prices on the top 100 routes have increased by over 40% compared to 2019, with fleet growth expected to slow to around 3% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The recovery of business travel demand during the second quarter contributed to maintaining ticket prices, while a decrease in oil prices helped reduce fuel costs, leading to a significant reduction in losses for the three major airlines [1][2] - The third quarter is expected to show year-on-year growth, potentially reaching new highs since 2019, with a rapid recovery in business travel demand in September being a critical factor [1][3] - Positive pre-sale data for the upcoming Golden Week indicates a 20% year-on-year increase in ticket pre-sales, with higher pre-sale prices compared to the previous year [1][3] Future Outlook - The recovery of business travel, especially after the Fourth Plenary Session, will be crucial for market performance in the coming year [1][5] - The sustainability of peak season effects will be an important indicator for validating long-term growth logic in the industry [5] - The implementation of anti-involution measures is expected to focus on sustainability and long-term stability in supply and demand [6] Key Trends for Upcoming Golden Week - The upcoming Golden Week is anticipated to be robust due to the long holiday period and the "拼假" (holiday-splicing) effect, with ticket bookings for domestic routes exceeding 9 million, a 28% increase year-on-year [7] - There is a notable increase in cross-province and long-distance travel, with growth rates exceeding 50% compared to last year [7] - The integration of culture and tourism is becoming prominent, with border tourism emerging as a new trend, particularly in regions like Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan, where tourism orders have surged by over 100% [7] Opportunities in the Tourism Sector - The tourism industry is expected to benefit from economic cycles and consumer spending patterns, with service consumption, including tourism, likely to grow as residents' income levels stabilize or increase [8] - Upcoming policies aimed at promoting service consumption, particularly during the spring and autumn holidays, are expected to enhance overall travel experiences and smooth out seasonal fluctuations [8] Strategic Recommendations for Airlines - Airlines should focus on high-quality network strategies to enhance competitiveness, with companies like Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines being recommended [9] - Preparing for the upcoming super cycle investment opportunities over the next two years and improving revenue management will be essential for long-term profitability [9] - Controlling flight schedules and managing low-cost routes will help optimize supply and demand relationships, supporting both short-term loss reduction and long-term profitability enhancement [9]

Group 1: Mechanical Industry - The mechanical industry report highlights that the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, with a core CPI rise of 3.1% and non-farm employment adding 22,000 jobs [1][4] - The report suggests focusing on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages, especially those with diversified capacity and stable customer loyalty [3][16] - The report notes a slight depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB and a slight appreciation of the euro against the RMB, with major shipping routes experiencing a year-on-year increase in freight rates [1][5] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" with high passenger load factors and improving supply-demand dynamics, potentially leading to a significant increase in airline profitability by 2026 [2][8][25] - The report indicates that the Chinese aviation market has achieved market-driven pricing and high load factors, which are essential for price transmission [8][25] - The report anticipates that if business travel demand continues to recover, airlines' profitability will significantly increase, marking a long-term positive trend for the industry [8][25][27] Group 3: Fixed Income Research - The report discusses the issuance of local government bonds in various provinces, totaling 188.52 billion RMB, with a slight narrowing of the bond issuance spread [2][14] - It highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global policy cycles and the need to monitor liquidity changes and structural opportunities in the bond market [1][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting investment strategies in response to the evolving interest rate landscape and liquidity conditions [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," with high passenger load factors and improving supply-demand dynamics. If business travel demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in profitability is anticipated by 2026, indicating dual potential for performance and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The Chinese aviation industry has entered a low growth phase in supply, with constraints in airspace slots becoming more pronounced. Airlines are expected to maintain a conservative capital expenditure approach due to low expected returns on new aircraft investments. The "anti-involution" trend is likely to support a low growth trajectory for fleet planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. Demand Side - Aviation consumption in China is still in its early stages, characterized by low frequency and penetration. The demographic dividend from the aviation population has not yet peaked, suggesting a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term demand fluctuations. The summer peak season saw business travel unexpectedly weaken, but profitability is still projected to exceed that of 2019 [4][10]. Q3 and Q4 Outlook - For Q3, despite the unexpected weakness in business travel, profitability is expected to remain above 2019 levels, driven by a recovery in demand post-September events. The report anticipates a record high in business travel demand in September, with domestic ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [4][31]. - In Q4, the report highlights the importance of observing the sustainability of business travel recovery, especially after significant events in October. The optimistic outlook for the National Day holiday suggests strong travel demand, with airlines expected to manage pricing effectively [4][5]. Recommendations - The report recommends an "Overweight" position in the aviation sector, particularly favoring airlines with high-quality networks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines. The anticipated "super cycle" in aviation is expected to provide significant performance and valuation opportunities in the coming years [4][34].