农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 行业：5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不悲观 情绪催化大猪出栏致 5 月猪价承压，供给压力前置释放叠加缺口传导将至， 2025H2 猪价不悲观。据涌益咨询，2025 年 5 月全国生猪销售均价 14.61 元/公斤， 环比-1.31%，同比-7.49%。涌益监控样本 ...

Group 1 - The pork concept sector increased by 2.16%, ranking 7th among concept sectors, with 29 stocks rising, including Zhenghong Technology, which hit the daily limit, and Shennong Group, Dayu Biological, and Muyuan Foods, which rose by 7.70%, 5.06%, and 4.79% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector saw a net inflow of 251 million yuan, with 23 stocks receiving net inflows, and 12 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow, led by New Hope with a net inflow of 54.25 million yuan [2][3] - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Zhenghong Technology, New Five Farms, and Tianbang Foods, with net inflow ratios of 29.78%, 12.94%, and 12.65% respectively [3][4] Group 2 - The top gainers in the pork concept sector included Zhenghong Technology, which rose by 9.96%, and Shennong Group, which rose by 7.70%, while the biggest losers were Bright Food, which fell by 1.91%, and Jingji Zhino, which fell by 1.14% [1][5] - The trading volume and turnover rates for key stocks in the pork sector showed significant activity, with Zhenghong Technology having a turnover rate of 9.04% and New Hope at 1.38% [3][4] - The overall performance of the pork sector reflects a positive sentiment among investors, as indicated by the substantial net inflows and rising stock prices [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Farming Index showing a strong increase, driven by key stocks like Muyuan Foods and others, despite ongoing challenges in the market due to fluctuating pig prices and inventory pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) rose by 1.06%, with major stocks such as Shennong Group increasing by 6.69% and Muyuan Foods by 4.08% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) also saw a rise of 1.08%, closing at 0.65 yuan, with a two-week cumulative increase of 2.54% [1]. - The trading volume for the Livestock ETF was 215.17 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.64% [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - Muyuan Foods reported a significant increase in pig output from January to April, with production costs improving to 12.4 yuan per kilogram by April [2]. - The company has submitted an application for H-share issuance, which may enhance its global market presence [2]. - Despite a downward trend in pig prices, the industry remains profitable, supported by Muyuan's cost advantages and improved profit margins [2]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Livestock Farming Index, which has a current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 12.89, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 68.9% of its total weight, with companies like Haida Group and Muyuan Foods being significant contributors [4]. Group 4: Stock Performance Overview - The performance of the top ten stocks in the Livestock ETF shows varied results, with Haida Group declining by 2.09% while Muyuan Foods increased by 4.09% [6]. - Other notable performers include Wens Foodstuff Group, which rose by 3.05%, and New Hope, which increased by 1.57% [6].

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,384.82, down 0.44%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,162.18, down 0.86% [4] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The report highlights an increase in share buybacks among brokerages, with six firms having repurchased a total of 129 million shares for 1.31 billion yuan as of June 5. This reflects management's confidence in their company's value and aims to optimize capital structure [7] - The average price-to-book ratio for the securities industry is currently at 1.33x, which is at the 38.20% percentile since 2018, indicating a certain level of value in the sector [7] - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in the capital market will clarify the development paths for the industry, with brokerages focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance capital quality [7] Chemical Raw Materials Sector - The new materials sector saw a slight increase, with the New Materials Index rising by 0.77%, although it underperformed compared to the ChiNext Index [8] - The report notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to encourage the use of green electricity, which is expected to drive the wind power installation market [10] - The wind power sector is projected to see new installations of approximately 105-115 GW in 2025, with a significant portion coming from onshore wind [10] Agriculture Sector - The report indicates a decline in pig prices, with average prices in key provinces dropping by 3.15% to 3.46% as of June 6. The average pork price fell by 1.11% [11] - The report expresses optimism about the operational outlook for Haida Group, citing potential growth from its overseas feed business and a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices [11] - The report emphasizes that the current cycle in the pig farming industry may lead to a prolonged profitability period, contrary to market pessimism [11]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant growth in sales volume, with many companies reporting double-digit year-on-year increases in sales of pig-related products, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2]. Sales Performance - In May, several companies reported substantial increases in sales volume, with some exceeding 150% year-on-year growth. For instance, Muyuan Foods sold 6.406 million pigs, up 30.42% year-on-year; Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.1554 million pigs, an increase of 32.64%; Zhengbang Technology sold 638,600 pigs, up 158.02%; and Tangrenshen sold 482,800 pigs, up 47.69% [1][2]. - Other companies like Kemin Foods and Dabeinong also reported double-digit growth in sales, with Kemin's subsidiary selling 48,300 pigs, up 23.06%, and Dabeinong selling 386,300 pigs, up 17.99% [2]. Production and Cost Management - Muyuan Foods attributed its sales increase to improved production efficiency and operational planning, while Wens Foodstuff cited increased piglet production and demand for piglets as contributing factors. Zhengbang Technology noted a gradual recovery in its business as a reason for its sales growth [2]. - Despite positive year-on-year comparisons, some companies saw a decline in sales compared to April, indicating a mixed performance in the short term [2]. Slaughter Volume and Market Outlook - The average daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises increased to 149,100 pigs in late May, reflecting a recovery in terminal consumption driven by pre-festival stocking demands. However, slaughter volumes are expected to decline post-festival [3]. - The industry anticipates a decrease in pig prices due to rising temperatures affecting weight gain and initiating inventory reduction actions. Nevertheless, the slow growth in the number of breeding sows may provide a buffer against supply pressures in the medium term [3]. Cost Control - Muyuan Foods reported a decrease in pig farming costs to approximately 12.2 yuan/kg in May, down nearly 0.2 yuan from the previous month, attributed to improved production performance. The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg through technological innovation and refined management [3][4]. - Wens Foodstuff reported a comprehensive cost of 6 yuan/lb for pig farming in April, while New Hope indicated a current cost of 12.9 yuan/kg, with expectations for further reductions by year-end [4].

证券代码：002567 证券简称：唐人神 公告编号：2025-059 唐人神集团股份有限公司 关于为子公司担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 上述担保包括公司为子公司提供担保、子公司为母公司提供担保、子公司 之间互相担保。担保范围包括但不限于申请银行借款、融资租赁等融资业务、 保理业务、采购履约担保等业务，担保方式包括但不限于连带责任担保、信用 担保、保证担保、资产抵押、质押等。上述子公司包含授权期限内新设立或纳 入的子公司。 一、担保进展情况 | 担保方 | 被担 | | 担保主债 权最高本 | 担保文件 | 担保 | 主合同签署 | | 担保内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债权人 | | | | 期间/主债 | 保证期间 | | | | 保方 | | 金余额 | 签署日 | 方式 | 权期间 | | | | | | | （万元） | | | | | | | 唐人神 | 成都唐 | | | | | | 主合同项下 | 债权本金、利 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a short-term decline in pig prices due to accelerated weight reduction and increased slaughtering, but this is expected to lead to a price rebound around mid-June 2025 as supply contracts and inventory levels drop [1] - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) has shown positive performance with key stocks such as Shennong Group (605296) rising by 4.67%, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 4.64%, and Muyuan Foods (002714) by 4.18% [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and the current high inventory levels are expected to decline, which may trigger a long-term profit uptrend in the sector after the inventory reduction phase ends [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159867) has increased by 1.31%, with the latest price reported at 0.62 yuan, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock breeding sector [1] - The China Livestock Breeding Index is designed to track the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 68.9% of the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Haida Group (002311), Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding," indicating that the industry's growth level is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [73]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of rational management in the pig farming industry, aiming to stabilize long-term pig prices and production capacity. New industry measures are expected to reduce speculative behavior and mitigate short-term price fluctuations, promoting long-term high-quality development [6]. - The pig farming sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, with stock prices currently at historical lows. The overall PB valuation of the pig industry index is at 2.55 times, which is favorable compared to the historical average [6]. - The report highlights the resilience of the pig farming industry, with expected support for pork consumption due to domestic economic stability, which may positively influence pig price expectations and sector performance [6]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - In April, pig sales from 12 companies totaled 7.77 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 21.38%. The average selling price for pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, up 0.60% from the previous month [7][8]. - The average weight of pigs sold in April was 108.6 kg, a slight decrease of 0.23% month-on-month. Profit margins for self-bred and purchased pig farming were reported at 84.33 yuan/head and 58.46 yuan/head, respectively [7][8]. Market Performance - The report notes that the agricultural sector, particularly the livestock industry, has shown a mixed performance, with the animal health and poultry farming sectors experiencing a decline of 1.51% and 0.90% respectively in the recent week [17][18]. - Year-to-date performance shows the livestock sector has increased by 3.39%, while the overall agricultural sector has risen by 5.98% [18]. Company Insights - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group are highlighted for their operational improvements and strategic expansions. Muyuan's slaughtering capacity utilization has improved to over 70% this year, with plans for further capacity increases [27][28]. - Wens Foodstuff Group has undergone a change in its actual controllers to ensure stable governance and adapt to new development conditions [26]. Animal Health and Feed Industry - The animal health sector is expected to recover alongside improvements in livestock management. The report suggests that leading domestic animal health companies are well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [10][11]. - The feed industry is anticipated to see increased demand as the livestock cycle recovers, with a focus on comprehensive services and extended farming trends [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].

Suspension and Resumption of Trading - Zhongying Electronics and Honghui Fruits and Vegetables are both undergoing control change plans by their controlling shareholders, leading to stock suspension [1] - *ST Kaiyuan has lifted its delisting risk warning but continues to implement other risk warnings, resulting in a one-day suspension [1] - Honghe Technology is in discussions regarding control change matters and will continue to be suspended [1] Mergers and Acquisitions - Kidswant plans to acquire 100% equity of Siyu Industry for 1.65 billion yuan, focusing on the personal care industry [2] - Zhejiang Lino intends to acquire 100% equity of Xuzhou Chemical Machinery for 260 million yuan [2] - Sanjia Technology plans to acquire 51% equity of Zhonghe Semiconductor for 121 million yuan [2] - Chuangye Heima intends to purchase 100% equity of Banxintong for 280 million yuan [3] - Hainan Airport's subsidiary plans to transfer 100% equity of Tianyu Flight Training for 799 million yuan [4] - Dongmu Co. plans to acquire 34.75% equity of Shanghai Fuchi for 735 million yuan and will conduct a private placement to raise funds [4] Share Buybacks - Longbai Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 500 million and 1 billion yuan [5] Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - Jiechuang Intelligent plans to procure servers for intelligent cloud services, with a budget not exceeding 600 million yuan [6] - Vanke A is set to receive a loan of up to 3 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group [6] - Yunda Co. plans to invest 982 million yuan in the construction of a new energy project in Yiw County [6] - Aotega plans to invest 500 million yuan to establish Aotega Investment Co. [6] - Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities are both undergoing changes in actual control to Huijin Company [6] Sales Performance - Tangrenshen reported a 47.69% year-on-year increase in pig sales for May [7] - Yisheng Co. experienced an 11.35% year-on-year growth in chick sales for May [8] Project Investments - Morning Chemical's subsidiary plans to invest 120 million yuan in the expansion project for an annual production of 35,000 tons of alkyl glycosides [9] - HNA Technology intends to sign a cooperation framework agreement with CWT International Limited for strategic cooperation in commodity trade, with a total trade scale not exceeding 1.5 billion yuan for the year [9] Stock Issuance - Stone Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10] - BlueFocus plans to issue H-shares and list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10]