1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools such as outright reverse repurchase and MLF forms a price - comparison relationship with the current issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs). Also, the scale of public money market funds and bank wealth management cash - management products is expected to continue growing, so it's difficult for the inter - bank CD rate to rise significantly. However, it's also hard for DR001 to fall significantly below the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, so the downward space for the inter - bank CD rate is limited [1]. - In the context of low cross - year financing difficulty, the inter - bank CD yield may remain in a "dilemma" pattern within the year. Wait patiently for a possible CD allocation point in January 2026 [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "进退维谷"的同业存单 - Since the fourth quarter, the yield of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CDs has had an amplitude of only 5bp, fluctuating between 1.63% and 1.68%. In December, the amplitude has narrowed to 2bp, indicating a balance between "long" and "short" factors [2][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield has a high difficulty in rising. The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools forms a price - comparison relationship with the CD issuance rate, and the growth of current - account wealth management product scale drives up the CD allocation demand [3][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield also has a high difficulty in falling. Under the policy of narrowing the short - term interest rate corridor, DR001 and R001 are unlikely to deviate significantly from the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, and the money market has been characterized by "ample quantity but stable price" in the past six months [4][12]. 狭义流动性 央行操作：月初季节性净回笼 - In the past week (12/1 - 12/5), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 8480 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase balance as of December 5 was 6638 billion yuan, at a low level [13]. - In December, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 14000 billion yuan (10000 billion yuan for 3M and 4000 billion yuan for 6M), and the maturity of MLF was 3000 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank renewed 10000 billion yuan of 3M outright reverse repurchase, achieving an equal - amount renewal [14][15]. 机构融入融出情况：月初融出顺畅 - On December 5, the net funds lent out by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 4.1 trillion yuan, about 7415 billion yuan higher than on November 28, and the net lending balance was 4.7 trillion yuan, about 2966 billion yuan more than on November 28, both at relatively high levels compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.2 trillion yuan, about 2366 billion yuan lower than on November 28, at a neutral level compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 40 billion yuan, about 317 billion yuan higher than on November 28, at a relatively low level compared with the same period in previous years [16]. - On December 5, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, 6678 billion yuan higher than on November 28. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products changed accordingly [26]. 回购市场成交情况：月初流动性摩擦小 - In terms of quantity and price of funds, at the end of the month, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4867 billion yuan compared with 11/24 - 11/28. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a 1bp decrease from last week. The liquidity friction was small [30]. - The money market was generally loose, and the financing difficulty at the beginning of the month was low, with the sentiment index mostly around 50 [31]. 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year rate decreased slightly compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% of the range since 2020, and the median of the SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.60%, in the bottom 22% of the range since 2020 [36]. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 1866 billion yuan, with relatively small overall pressure. Treasury bonds and local bonds had net payments of 500 billion and 1366 billion yuan respectively. In the next week, government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 7952 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 8797 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 845 billion yuan [37]. 当前政府债发行进度 - As of December 5, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2%, up 2.6% from the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 2523 billion yuan. The issuance of the 5000 - billion - yuan local bond quota balance to be carried forward within the year has started [39]. 同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 绝对收益率 - On December 5, SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.3%, 1.42%, 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. Except for the 7 - day term, which decreased by 2bp compared with November 28, the quotes for other terms remained unchanged. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank CDs of commercial banks with AAA ratings were 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.66% respectively, with those of 1M and above terms increasing by 13bp, 4bp, 2bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively compared with November 28 [42]. 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (December 1 - December 5), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 4959 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 13%, 12%, 44%, 9%, and 22% respectively, with the proportions of 1M, 6M, and 9M increasing and those of 3M and 1Y decreasing [44]. 相对估值 - On December 5, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 19bp, at the 47% quantile since 2020 [47].

Group 1 - Financial technology sector saw a significant rebound on December 5, with the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index rising over 3% [1][6] - Notable stocks included Ying Shisheng hitting the daily limit, and Star Ring Technology increasing over 17%, while several others rose more than 5% [1][6] - The largest financial technology ETF (159851) experienced a sharp rebound, with an intraday increase of 4.71% and a closing rise of 3.56%, alongside a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan [1][6] Group 2 - The financial technology sector has shown signs of recovery after a continuous decline since August, with two consecutive weeks of gains indicating a potential bottoming out [3][8] - The sector benefits from dual attributes of finance and technology, with expectations of a rebound driven by non-bank financials and AI integration in financial software [3][8] - Policy support is anticipated to enhance the financial industry's quality development, with long-term interest rates expected to remain stable, contributing to a bullish market sentiment [3][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies for 2026 focus on two main lines: short-term market activity and mid-term performance of financial IT companies, which are expected to benefit from policy initiatives [4][9] - The financial technology ETF (159851) and its associated funds are recommended for investment, covering a wide range of sectors including internet brokerage and AI applications [4][9] - As of December 4, the financial technology ETF (159851) had a scale exceeding 9 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 800 million yuan over the past six months, indicating strong liquidity [4][9]

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 北交所做市公司家数增长，做市商"择优而市"向核心指数汇集 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所做市公司数增至 143 家和北证 50 和北证专精特新指数重合度较高。 2025 年 10 月 24 日北交所、全国股转公司对证券公司 2025 Q1-3 的执业质量情况 进行了评价，合计有 21 家券商获得北交所做市得分。从有做市商的企业市值规 模和数量来看，整体队伍稳步"扩容"，截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，北交所合计有 143 家企业有做市商，较 2024 全年增长 21.19%，北交所有做市商的企业总市值 达 4993.45 亿元。从收益率来看，有做市商的企业的涨幅以及成交更活跃，2025 年至今北交所有做市商的企业收益率达 48.51%，高于没有做市商企业的 39.11%，。从行业角度来看，做市公司中高端制造行业数量有 64 家，占比 44.76%。 从市值角度来看，20-50 亿市值企业占比最大，占比为 48.25%。从企业画像来看， 有做 ...

本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信证券：当前市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 光大证券：国内外利好共振 市场有所回暖 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大 的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短 期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势 为主。 华金证券：春季行情开启了吗？ 当前来看，明年春季行情可能于今年12 月中下旬提前开启。（1）短期政策和外部事件可能偏积极。一 ...

来源：浙商证券 配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前 期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注 明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医 药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；全球地缘政治存在不确定性。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 来源：浙商证券 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较大、强势标的多数 还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后 市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方 面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例 如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, emphasizes the need to optimize evaluation indicators for quality institutions, appropriately expand capital space and leverage limits, and enhance capital utilization efficiency in the securities industry [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The CSRC aims to strengthen classified regulation, allowing for appropriate relaxation of capital space and leverage limits for quality institutions, which is expected to enhance capital utilization efficiency [4][15]. - This is the second time in a year that the CSRC has explicitly mentioned increasing leverage for securities firms, following the revision of risk control indicators in September 2024 [4][9]. Industry Impact - The relaxation of leverage limits is expected to directly benefit securities firms in margin trading, proprietary equity, international business, and derivatives [6][16]. - The average leverage ratio of listed securities firms in China is significantly lower than that of domestic and international financial peers, indicating room for improvement [7][18]. Business Development - The increase in leverage is seen as a core driver for the expansion of capital-intensive businesses, which can enhance overall profitability and return on equity (ROE) [8][25]. - The policy shift marks a transition from price competition to value competition, encouraging firms to focus on high-quality services rather than merely scaling up [10][24]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The increase in capital space and leverage limits is expected to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, which are becoming essential for firms to enhance efficiency and achieve differentiation [11][23]. - Notable mergers, such as Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities, exemplify the trend of resource integration and competitive advantage [24]. Long-term Outlook - The optimization of capital leverage is anticipated to open up long-term growth potential for the industry's ROE, pushing the sector towards a healthier and more efficient development model [25][26]. - The focus on quality development and the shift towards professional capabilities are expected to enhance the industry's resilience and profitability [26]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the policy changes, firms face challenges such as an "asset shortage," limiting their ability to effectively utilize increased leverage [27]. - Traditional high-leverage business channels are constrained, and international business potential is hindered by cross-border capital flow restrictions [27].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Zhongtuo Group Co., Ltd., plans to issue a non-public offering of renewable corporate bonds totaling up to 2 billion yuan, with the first phase successfully completed at 500 million yuan and a coupon rate of 2.95% [1][2]. Group 1 - The company has received approval from its board and shareholders for the issuance of renewable corporate bonds [1]. - The total amount for the bond issuance is capped at 2 billion yuan, and the issuance has been confirmed to meet the listing conditions by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1]. - The first phase of the bond issuance, named "25 Zhongtuo Y1," was completed with an actual issuance scale of 500 million yuan and a subscription multiple of 1.84 times [1]. Group 2 - The bond was issued at a price of 100 yuan per bond, with a term of 3+N years [1]. - No participation in the bond subscription was made by the company's directors, senior management, or shareholders holding more than 5% of the shares [2]. - The underwriting institutions involved in the bond issuance complied with relevant legal and regulatory requirements [2].

Core Insights - The 21st Century Economic Report held its annual securities industry conference and the 2025 Fifth Golden Analyst Awards in Guangzhou, recognizing 25 institutions for their achievements in research and analysis [1] Group 1: Awards and Participants - The awards attracted participation from over 30 institutions, including prominent firms like GF Securities, Changjiang Securities, Guotai Junan, and Tianfeng Securities [1] - A total of 33 industry analyst awards and 8 special awards were established, covering traditional sectors such as banking and real estate, as well as emerging fields like robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2: Performance of Institutions - Changjiang Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities were the top performers, winning 23, 23, and 22 awards respectively, with GF Securities leading in nine sectors including strategy research and real estate [2] - Other notable institutions such as Dongwu Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, and Industrial Securities also performed well, each securing over 10 awards [2] Group 3: Special Awards - Over 20 institutions received honors in the institutional category, with GF Securities, Changjiang Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities each winning three institutional awards [3] - In the personal awards category, 10 chief economists were recognized as "Best Chief Economist for High-Quality Development 2025," while 25 analysts were awarded "2025 Growth Analyst" titles [3]

Core Idea - Current market conditions suggest not to aggressively bottom-fish but to consider small positions for short-term gains, with a focus on 1-2 basis point fluctuations before retreating [3][32] - There is a probability of unexpected monetary easing in Q1 next year, and if there is large-scale central bank net buying of government bonds, significant trading opportunities may arise [3][32] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The bond market currently lacks major institutional buyers, with funds showing diminished profit effects and banks potentially selling old bonds due to year-end pressures [4][7][9] - Fund products are under pressure, with a notable decline in the scale of long-term bond ETFs from approximately 55 billion to 48 billion since November [7][41] - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend stocks as substitutes for long-term bonds, with the dividend yield of the A-share dividend index at approximately 4.3%-4.4%, significantly higher than the 30-year government bond yield of 2.25% [16][48] Group 2: Future Opportunities - Patience is advised for positioning after the year-end, as new rounds of easing may emerge post-New Year, with expectations of increased central bank bond purchases [4][50] - The market anticipates a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, with potential significant trading opportunities when the main contract price approaches 109 yuan [4][50][53] - The current lack of trend-following buying interest from major institutional investors suggests that the bond market's negative sentiment may not have fully dissipated [4][34] Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Strategies - Short-term strategies should focus on risk control, while mid-term outlooks remain optimistic, anticipating a shift in investment strategies from capital gains to carry strategies [4][34] - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound as year-end adjustments conclude, with institutions likely to increase their allocations [4][53] - The central bank's bond buying signals are currently more significant than their actual impact, with expectations of increased buying in the near future [4][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the United States' plan to significantly increase energy production by lifting drilling restrictions in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic energy output and reduce imports [2][3][5]. Group 1: Legislative Actions - On December 5, President Trump signed a resolution to revoke certain drilling restrictions in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, aiming to boost U.S. energy production [2][3]. - The area in question covers approximately 23.5 million acres and is estimated to contain 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil [5]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential oversupply in the global oil market, estimating a surplus of 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [2][6]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to $58 per barrel in 2026, with similar declines expected for U.S. benchmark prices [7]. - Goldman Sachs also anticipates a challenging period for the oil industry in 2026 and 2027, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices projected at $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [7]. Group 3: Production Expectations - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that Alaska's crude oil production will reach 477,000 barrels per day by 2026, marking the highest level since 2018 and a 13% increase from previous levels [5]. - EIA data indicates that U.S. shale oil producers are expected to achieve record production levels by December of this year [6].