Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a recovery in domestic CPI and PPI indices, alongside the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and express delivery, as well as in oil and bulk commodity supply chains [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - Domestic CPI and PPI indices are showing signs of recovery, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a narrowing of price declines due to the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, with a notable improvement in air ticket prices and rising shipping rates in oil and bulk transport [1][2][3]. - The average price of express delivery per ticket in October 2025 was 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00%, which is an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.91% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. Opportunities in aviation and express delivery driven by the "anti-involution" trend and price recovery in the domestic market [2][6]. 2. Investment prospects in oil and bulk commodity supply chains during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][6]. - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Jitu Express, Yunda Holdings, and SF Express, while in aviation, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines are highlighted [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The express delivery sector's growth rate has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.10% from January to October 2025, and a single-digit growth in October [4]. - The average price of domestic air tickets in October 2025 was 809 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, marking the best monthly performance of the year [3][4]. - In the oil transport sector, OPEC's average crude oil production from January to November was 27,484 thousand barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Bulk Commodity Supply Chain - The bulk commodity supply chain is entering a replenishment cycle, with significant increases in iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia, leading to a rise in the BDI freight index [5]. - Major commodity prices are showing signs of recovery, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu reporting improved performance in the first three quarters [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in international tourist arrivals in Beijing, attributed to the visa-free entry policy for German citizens, which has been extended until December 31, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Visa Policy Impact - The visa-free entry policy for German citizens has led to a doubling of the number of visa-free arrivals, contributing to over 5 million inbound tourists in Beijing in 2025 [2]. - The policy has made travel to China more convenient, encouraging many Europeans to visit [1][2]. Group 2: Tourism Development Strategies - Beijing's tourism market is transitioning from convenience to high-quality development, focusing on product refinement, international service standards, and diverse promotional strategies [2]. - The city aims to enhance its appeal as a top international tourist destination through improved service quality and cultural offerings [2]. Group 3: Airport and Travel Services - Capital Airport plans to enhance services for transit passengers, including "one-ticket" and direct luggage services, and has expanded its international route network to cover 57 countries and 225 destinations [3]. - Future initiatives include cross-border ticket discounts and improved transit services to facilitate international visitors [3]. Group 4: Overall Market Recovery - The inbound tourism market in China showed strong recovery in 2025, with a total of 40.6 million foreign visitors, marking a 27.2% increase year-on-year [4]. - The 240-hour visa-free transit policy has been expanded, increasing the number of applicable ports and countries, thus enhancing the overall accessibility for international travelers [4][5].

Core Insights - The global commercial aircraft manufacturing industry is experiencing a recovery in delivery volumes, but supply chain issues continue to hinder the resolution of demand-supply conflicts among manufacturers, suppliers, and airlines [2][7] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that demand will exceed the availability of aircraft and engines, with structural imbalances expected to persist until 2031-2034 [2][7] Group 1: Aircraft Deliveries - In 2025, China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) delivered 15 C919 aircraft, surpassing the 12 delivered in 2024, despite facing production challenges [3] - COMAC's C909 model saw a decline in deliveries, with approximately 20-23 units delivered in 2025 compared to 35 in 2024 [4] - Boeing delivered 537 commercial aircraft by the end of November 2025, with expectations to reach around 590 for the year, a significant increase from 348 in 2024 [5] - Airbus aimed for 790 deliveries in 2025, down from an initial target of 820, having delivered 657 aircraft by the end of November [5] - Embraer set a target of 77-85 E-series jet deliveries for 2025, needing to deliver at least 31 in the last quarter to meet this goal [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The aviation industry is facing significant supply chain bottlenecks, with a delivery gap of over 5,300 aircraft and backorders exceeding 17,000, representing nearly 60% of the active fleet [7][9] - The average age of the global fleet has risen to 15.1 years, with older aircraft being retained longer due to delays in new aircraft deliveries [8] - The production bottlenecks are exacerbated by engine supply issues and a shortage of skilled technicians, leading to delays in aircraft assembly [9] Group 3: Financial Implications - IATA estimates that supply chain bottlenecks will result in over $11 billion in additional costs for the global aviation industry in 2025, including $4.2 billion in extra fuel costs and $3.1 billion in increased maintenance costs [10] - The total net profit for global airlines is projected to be $39.5 billion in 2025, with a slight increase to $41 billion in 2026, indicating a low net profit margin due to various external factors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the direct flight route from Chengdu to Almaty marks a significant development in air travel connectivity between Southwest China and Kazakhstan, enhancing tourism and trade opportunities in the region [1] Group 1: Flight Details - The CA455 flight from Chengdu Tianfu International Airport took off on December 30, 2025, at 18:30 and arrived at Almaty International Airport at 20:01 local time after a flight duration of 4 hours and 30 minutes [1] - This route is the first direct flight from Southwest China to Kazakhstan, with flights scheduled every Tuesday and Saturday [1] - The return flight, CA456, departs from Almaty at 21:30 local time and arrives back in Chengdu at 4:30 the next day, utilizing an Airbus A320 aircraft [1] Group 2: Significance of Almaty - Almaty is the largest city in Kazakhstan and serves as a major hub for road transport and international air travel [1] - Key attractions in Almaty include the Chimbulak Ski Resort and the Big Almaty Lake, which are expected to draw tourists from China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The arrival of the first international tourists in Beijing on January 1, 2026, marks a revitalization of the city's inbound tourism market, showcasing its growing appeal to global visitors [6]. Group 1: Inbound Tourism Initiatives - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism, in collaboration with Beijing Border Inspection, Capital Airport, and Air China, organized a ceremonial welcome for the first batch of inbound tourists [1]. - Tourists received a "Beijing Welcome Gift" package, which includes ten winter ice and snow tourism routes, a travel guide, a hotel manual, and tax refund information, along with special offers from local companies [4]. - The inbound tourist volume in Beijing exceeded 5 million in 2025, indicating the city's strong attraction to international visitors [6]. Group 2: Future Development Plans - The city aims to transition from "convenience" to "high-quality development" in inbound tourism, focusing on product refinement, international service standards, and diverse promotional strategies [6]. - Capital Airport's route network covers 225 destinations in 57 countries, with 97 international and regional routes, and 52 intercontinental routes, leading the nation [7]. - Plans for 2026 include enhanced services for transit passengers, such as "one ticket to destination" and direct luggage handling, to further facilitate international tourism [7]. Group 3: Expected Visitor Flow - During the New Year holiday from January 1 to 3, 2026, the total flow of inbound and outbound passengers at Beijing ports is expected to reach approximately 180,000 [9]. - In addition to independent travelers, group tours from countries like Russia, Poland, and South Korea will also participate in the New Year celebrations in Beijing [9].

来源：民航之翼 2025 年民航业已稳稳站在常态化发展新起点，旅客运输量创下历史新高，航司盈利实现实质性突破。 迈入 2026 年，行业将迎来供需格局重塑、政策红利释放、创新动能集聚的关键一年，翼哥继续为大家 带来新一年民航十大展望。 整体而言，2026年民航业"中性偏乐观"！ 一、增长新常态：中速增长 2026年将是十五五的开局之年，民航业将迎来一个全新的开始。 2026年，行业将彻底告别以2019年为基准的恢复性话语体系。 民航的增速值得关注。 中央经济工作会提出的"盘活存量、左右增量"对民航业显得尤为重要。 未来对民航业来说，存量越来越大，增量越来越小，甚至有一天增量为负也不是不可能。 过去民航业的增速与GDP的增速有个乘数效应，大概是在1.4-1.5左右。 也就是说，民航业增速是GDP增速的1.4-1.5倍。 但未来可能这个乘数效应慢慢消失，与GDP增速趋同，甚至还低于GDP增速。 预计2026年民航业增速在5%左右，但客座率将维持高位，甚至高于2025年。 2026年将呈现"中速增长、高客座率"的增长新常态。 二、规模新突破：首破8亿人次 2025 年全民航旅客运输量顺利达成 7.7 亿人次的预期目 ...

电子 c.add : 00 00 L TECHNICIA TA 出口EXIT 61 P a 11 祝福。旅客还获赠了具有各航司特色的伴手礼，让这份独特而温暖的新年飞行体验成为值得珍藏的记 忆。 ) ARRENEES O 9 70 3 D El 同心起影 ami e 8 T 177 载口 （来源：中国民航网） 转自：中国民航网 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者张丰蘩 报道：2026年1月1日清晨6时17分，中国国际航空公司（以下 简称"国航"）CA1619航班从北京首都国际机场起飞，满载着新年第一缕晨光与对旅客的美好祝愿，驶 向目的地绥芬河，以"第一飞"的仪式感正式拉开了"同心起航·共赴未来"2026年中航集团新年主题航班 系列活动的帷幕。随后，国航系成员航司深圳航空、山东航空、北京航空、大连航空、内蒙古航空、昆 明航空，陆续从深圳、济南、北京（大兴）、大连、呼和浩特、昆明机场，执飞各自在2026年元旦当天 的首个国内航班，在万米高空接力展开一场别开生面的"云端迎新"活动。 当天，所有主题航班的客舱均经过精心装饰，"同心起航·共赴未来"的主题视觉贯穿始终，营造出浓厚 的节日氛围。航班进入平飞阶段后，热情洋溢的机 ...

Group 1 - The arrival of international tourists on January 1, 2026, marks a revitalization of Beijing's inbound tourism market, with over 5 million inbound visitors recorded in 2025, showcasing the city's appeal to global travelers [3] - Beijing's inbound tourism is transitioning from "convenience" to "high-quality development," focusing on product refinement, international service, and diverse promotion strategies to enhance economic benefits and cultural influence [3] - The capital airport's network covers 225 destinations in 57 countries, with 97 international and regional routes, and plans to improve services for transit passengers in 2026 [3] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday from January 1 to 3, 2026, the total flow of inbound and outbound personnel at Beijing ports is expected to reach approximately 180,000, including both independent travelers and tour groups from various countries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The three major Chinese airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China, announced a new fuel surcharge standard for domestic flights effective from January 5, 2026, with specific rates for different flight distances and exemptions for certain passenger categories [1][4][6]. Group 1: Fuel Surcharge Standards - For domestic flights under 800 kilometers, the fuel surcharge will be set at RMB 10 per passenger, while for flights over 800 kilometers, the surcharge will be RMB 20 per passenger [1][4][6]. - Infants traveling on adult tickets will be exempt from the fuel surcharge, while children, disabled veterans, and police officers injured in the line of duty will have reduced rates, with no charge for flights under 800 kilometers and RMB 10 for flights over 800 kilometers [1][4][6]. Group 2: Ticket Change Policy - Tickets sold before January 5, 2026, will not have the fuel surcharge refunded or adjusted if changes are made after this date [2][4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the aviation sector, particularly in the context of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) and its impact on various industries including airports and light industry paper manufacturing [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the financial performance of sectors like aviation and light industry paper due to improved cost and debt structures [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that different sectors lead the market during phases of rapid RMB appreciation, with core assets leading in 2017, new energy and military industries in 2020-2021, and economic recovery valuation logic in late 2022 to early 2023 [1][6]. - The current phase of RMB appreciation differs from previous ones, with reduced foreign capital influence and increased domestic pricing power, shifting market focus towards technological transformation rather than mere economic recovery [1][7]. - The aviation sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with significant cost components (over 60%) being dollar-denominated, meaning even slight RMB appreciation can lead to substantial profit increases [3][9]. Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are identified in the aviation and light industry paper sectors, particularly as companies prepare to release annual reports [1][8]. - The second tier of investment opportunities includes foreign-invested blue-chip stocks such as electric equipment, electronics, and food and beverage sectors, which have shown resilience during past RMB appreciation phases [5]. - The third tier includes large financial and real estate sectors, which have a high proportion of RMB-denominated assets, benefiting from balance sheet improvements during RMB appreciation [5]. Additional Important Insights - The global aircraft manufacturing industry is facing supply chain bottlenecks due to de-globalization, affecting the availability of materials and components [11]. - The performance of Chinese airlines has significantly outpaced the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, driven by increased international route demand and favorable pricing dynamics [12]. - Airlines like China Southern, China Eastern, Air China, and budget carriers such as Spring Airlines are identified as high-elasticity investment opportunities due to their potential recovery from historical lows [3][12]. - The upcoming delivery of new aircraft orders (e.g., Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines) is expected to support fleet updates and future growth [10].