丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 假期金属价格走强，看好节后配置机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 铜铝节后易涨难跌，重视板块机会。商品端，铜铝节后易涨难跌，中长期经济底部与逆全球化 促进供需结构优化，弹性可期：1）短期，美国对降息及铜关税态度，依然是短期工业金属价格 走势的主导因素，在二者并未发生根本性转变之前，维持铜铝趋势看涨判断，节后国内金三银 四旺季、中美会谈、联储主席换届等均构成催化；2）中期，美联储降息引领全球趋势宽松促进 铜铝周期上行；3）长期，逆全球化加剧各国对资源争夺，铜铝中枢趋势上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报 ...

Q&A 2026 年稀土板块的投资机会和价格走势如何？ 2026 年稀土板块的投资机会非常值得关注。首先，供给端方面，稀土供应整 体偏紧。自去年 12 月底到今年 2 月中旬，稀土现货价格从 60 万元涨至 86 万 元，涨幅接近 50%；期货价格则突破 92 万元，上涨超过 50%。这一趋势类似 于 2011 年和 2021 年的情况。央企主导的两大稀土集团在新的一年里并未放 开指标，而独立于央企之外的民营企业也因没有配额而减产甚至停产。因此， 我们预计未来三个月月度供给将环比减少 800 吨至 1,000 吨，同比下降约 10%。 需求端来看，今年市场普遍预期稀土出口需求会较好，尤其是与美国关 系改善后，出口需求可能逐月上涨。而国内新能源车需求虽前期偏悲观，但目 前磁材厂订单情况超预期。如果 3 月份订单节奏加快，下游磁材厂将开启一轮 补库。目前库存处于中低水平，这将进一步推动需求。 综合以上因素，我们认 为今年上半年稀土价格有望突破 2021 年的历史高点（氧化钕曾达到 110 万元/ 战略金属（稀土钽钨）更新 20260223 摘要 稀土价格飙升：氧化钕期货价格已突破 92 万元，涨幅超 50%，与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in rare earth metals are attributed to ongoing supply-side reforms and upcoming policy documents for 2024-2025, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry [1][3]. Rare Earth Metals - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 849,800 CNY/ton, up 13.51% month-on-month - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,450,000 CNY/ton, up 9.02% month-on-month - The price of terbium oxide is 6,460,000 CNY/ton, up 5.90% month-on-month - December saw a 3% month-on-month decrease but a 7% year-on-year increase in China's rare earth permanent magnet exports, reaching a historical high for the month [1][3]. - The processing fee for yttrium-rich europium ore has risen to 41,000 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing optimization in the smelting sector [3]. - Key stocks to watch include China Rare Earth (000831), Zhong Rare Metals (600259), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and Baotou Steel (600010) [3]. Tin - The price of tin ingots is 378,200 CNY/ton, down 10.74% month-on-month - Indonesia is considering a ban on tin raw material exports, which may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies [4]. - Long-term demand is expected to benefit from AI and automotive smart technology, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance for tin [4]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) and others [4]. Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 696,700 CNY/ton, up 15.99% month-on-month - The price of ammonium paratungstate is 1,025,200 CNY/ton, up 15.11% month-on-month - The U.S. is increasing its strategic reserves, which may elevate tungsten's priority in the market [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Tungsten High-Tech (000657) and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) [4]. Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 165,100 CNY/ton, up 0.62% month-on-month - The price of antimony concentrate is 144,000 CNY/ton, up 2.13% month-on-month - December saw a 4% month-on-month increase but a 71% year-on-year decrease in antimony exports [5]. - The outlook remains positive due to potential recovery in exports and stable demand, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector [5]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold (002155) [5]. Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,165 CNY/ton, up 2.97% month-on-month - The price of ferromolybdenum is 267,100 CNY/ton, up 3.33% month-on-month - The domestic molybdenum price is stabilizing due to high tungsten prices and increased defense spending [5]. - Recommended stocks include Jinduicheng Molybdenum (601958) and Guocheng Mining (000688) [5].

2026年2月24日早盘，有色金属、小金属涨幅居前，截至11:10，中证稀有金属主题指数强势上涨 3.00%，成分股铂科新材上涨9.34%，永兴材料上涨7.27%，钒钛股份上涨6.69%，中稀有色，株冶集团 等个股跟涨。 稀土价格持续强势上行，国金证券指出，氧化镨钕、氧化铽、氧化镝等主要稀土氧化物价格本期环比分 别上涨13.51%、5.90%、9.02%，创近年新高，主因供给侧改革持续推进叠加中钇富铕矿加工费升至4.1 万元/吨，反映冶炼环节出清与格局优化正加速兑现；同时12月我国稀土永磁出口量同比+7%，单月创 历史同期新高，显示海外补库需求依然旺盛，稀土板块估值与业绩双升逻辑进一步强化。 钨方面，钨精矿及仲钨酸铵价格本期环比分别大涨15.99%和15.11%，银河证券分析认为，海外战略备 库动向显著增强支撑逻辑——美国两党议员提议设立25亿美元"战略韧性储备"，叠加我国对日两用物项 出口管制升级及特朗普政府拟将2027财年军费提至1.5万亿美元，共同推升钨作为关键军工金属的优先 级与长期价格中枢。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证稀有金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华 友钴业、盐 ...

铝：截至2月12日，电解铝库存89.2万吨，周度累库5.6万吨，较2025年同期增加36万吨，社库规模为近三年同期高 位，供需错配的压力逐步凸显。供应端，国内及印尼电解铝项目稳步爬产。需求端，春节来临，下游对原料需求 边际转弱，叠加铝价较高，企业铸锭意愿大幅增强，2月铝水比例走低，成为驱动国内铝库存上行的核心因素。展 望后市，当前电解铝锭累库驱动逻辑未发生实质改变，铝水比例下滑进一步加剧铝锭供给压力，叠加春节假期临 近市场交投氛围逐步进入停滞状态，国内铝锭累库节奏将明显加快，预计节后首周国内铝锭库存将攀升至120万吨 附近。重点关注：中国宏桥、天山铝业、神火股份、云铝股份、中国铝业、创新实业、百通能源。 # 领导开工大吉，祝您# 2026年投资马到成功！ 有色观点更新120260223 铜：宏观层面，国内因春节前资金偏谨慎，海外方面，上周五美国最高法院裁决废除特朗普部分全球关税成为最 大催化剂，显著缓解贸易不确定性，风险偏好回升推动铜价反弹，但特朗普迅速援引1974年《 # 领导开工大吉，祝您# 2026年投资马到成功！ 有色观点更新120260223 铜：宏观层面，国内因春节前资金偏谨慎，海外方面，上周五美 ...

2026年2月24日早盘，稀土永磁概念盘中走强，截至10:16，中证稀土产业指数强势上涨2.53%，成分股 铂科新材上涨7.77%，金风科技上涨6.14%，中稀有色上涨6.13%，中色股份，盛新锂能等个股跟涨。 银河证券指出，AI硬件已成为当前AI应用落地最确定的受益方向，国内春节期间AI眼镜销量激增 70%-80%、AI玩具成交同比暴增500倍、宇树人形机器人集群协同运动刷新全球纪录，这些终端爆发背 后均高度依赖高性能钕铁硼永磁材料提供的精密动力输出与响应能力，硬件规模化放量将直接拉动上游 稀土功能材料需求。 稀土ETF嘉实(516150)紧密跟踪中证稀土产业指数，是一键布局国内稀土产业链的便利工具。 场外投资者还可以通过稀土ETF嘉实联接基金（011036）把握稀土投资机遇。 此外，全球能源转型正从政策驱动迈向设备落地阶段，印度拟放宽对中国电力设备进口限制、2025年国 内风电新增装机37.9GW、煤电投资同比增长27.7%。光大证券研报观点认为，风电发电机、核电控制棒 驱动机构、特高压变压器等核心装备均需大量高性能烧结钕铁硼磁体，设备国产化加速与海外订单回流 将同步强化稀土永磁材料的战略价值。 数据显示 ...

Macro Insights - During the Spring Festival, significant overseas events occurred, including heightened tensions in the Middle East leading to a sharp increase in international oil prices, a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court declaring Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal, and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, which complicates short-term market rate cut predictions [1] - In January, U.S. CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined due to falling food and gasoline prices, with expectations that tariff impacts on inflation are nearing their peak, potentially easing pressure on rate cuts [2] - Financial data at the start of the year showed stable performance, with direct financing growth driven by fiscal measures offsetting weak on-balance-sheet credit growth, and social financing growth remaining above 8% year-on-year [3] Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to experience short-term trading opportunities due to calendar effects, but investors should remain cautious of high valuation risks in the medium term [4] - There is a need to address "involution" in competition to prevent unreasonable credit growth, with a preference for stable and realistic credit data over inflated growth figures [5] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed an overall price increase, with the China REITs index closing at 804.77, reflecting a weekly return of 0.32% [6] Banking Sector Insights - In January, loan growth was lower than expected, with corporate loans being the main contributor, while household loan demand may weaken in February due to seasonal factors [10] - Commercial banks reported a net profit of 2.38 trillion yuan in 2025, with a net interest margin growth of 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [11] Strategic Metals Insights - The current environment of "de-globalization, stockpiling, and weakening dollar credit" is reminiscent of the 1970s, leading to a positive outlook on the valuation of strategic metals [12] Company-Specific Insights - Huahong Semiconductor's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with a projected net profit growth of 158% in 2026, supported by high utilization rates and price stability [13] - Lenovo Group's FY26 Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with strategic restructuring expected to help its ISG business return to profitability [14] - Budweiser APAC's Q4 2025 revenue was $1.073 billion, with a focus on regaining market share in China, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing demand for overseas stockpiling, particularly in the context of the upcoming supply-side documents for 2024-2025 [3][18]. - Tin prices have shown volatility due to macroeconomic factors, with Indonesia considering a ban on tin raw material exports, which could create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies [4][28]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased strategic stockpiling in the U.S. and domestic demand from both civilian and military sectors [4][41]. - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover as exports stabilize, supported by a steady demand in the photovoltaic glass sector [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing and expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased defense spending [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Key commodity prices showed varied performance, with rare earth oxides like praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 13.51%, while tin ingot prices decreased by 10.74% [4][16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide reached 849,800 CNY/ton, up 13.51% [3][19]. - The sector is expected to see dual growth in valuation and performance, with key companies to watch including China Rare Earth, Zhong Rare Metals, and Northern Rare Earth [3][19]. Tin - Tin ingot prices fell to 378,200 CNY/ton, down 10.74% [4][28]. - The potential export ban by Indonesia could lead to a new price cycle for tin [4][28]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 696,700 CNY/ton, up 15.99% [4][41]. - The U.S. strategic stockpiling initiative may elevate tungsten's market priority [4][41]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased to 165,100 CNY/ton, up 0.62% [5][47]. - The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to price increases [5][47]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices reached 4,165 CNY/ton, up 2.97% [6][51]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased military spending will support price growth [6][51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points, respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing overseas inventory demand. The prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 13.51%, dysprosium oxide by 9.02%, and terbium oxide by 5.90% [3][18][19]. - Tin prices have shown volatility, with a decrease of 10.74% in the current period. The potential ban on tin raw material exports from Indonesia may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies, positively impacting tin prices in the long term [4][28]. - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, with tungsten concentrate rising by 15.99% and ammonium paratungstate by 15.11%. The report suggests that the strategic reserve initiatives in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority in global markets [4][40]. - Antimony prices have shown a slight increase, with antimony ingot prices up by 0.62% and antimony concentrate by 2.13%. The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to a price rebound [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices have stabilized, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by 2.97% and ferromolybdenum by 3.33%. The report notes that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support further price increases [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Commodity prices for rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum have shown upward trends, while tin prices have decreased [16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Insights 2.1 Rare Earths - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the rising prices of rare earths, with significant export demand expected to continue [3][18][19]. 2.2 Tin - The potential export ban from Indonesia could lead to increased demand for tin processing, positively affecting prices in the long run [4][28]. 2.3 Tungsten - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten in global markets, with prices rising significantly due to supply constraints and increased military spending [4][40]. 2.4 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as export conditions improve, with a focus on high-growth resource companies [5][47]. 2.5 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are projected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased demand from the defense sector [6][51].

内容概况：稀土回收是指对废弃的稀土资源进行高效、环保地再利用的过程，通过一系列工艺，如冶 炼、分离和提纯等，将稀土元素从废弃物中分离出来，再转化为可用的稀土化合物。在政策规范与稀土 下游需求（新能源、军工等）持续释放的推动下，回收市场规模将继续增长。2024年我国稀土回收市场 规模达45.49亿元。 相关企业：华宏科技、中稀天马、银海新材料、步莱铽、包钢新利、稀土友力 关键词：稀土回收量 稀土回收市场规模 稀土回收企业 稀土回收产业链流程 稀土回收短期趋势 一、稀土回收产业概述 稀土是镧（La）、铈（Ce）、镨（Pr）、钕（Nd）、钷（Pm）、钐（Sm）、铕（Eu）、钆（Gd）、 铽（Tb）、镝（Dy）、钬（Ho）、铒（Er）、铥（Tm）、镱（Yb）、镥（Lu），钪（Sc）和钇（Y） 共17种元素的统称。稀土回收是指对废弃的稀土资源进行高效、环保地再利用的过程，通过一系列工 艺，如冶炼、分离和提纯等，将稀土元素从废弃物中分离出来，再转化为可用的稀土化合物。稀土回收 主要分为三类：工业生产废料回收，涵盖开采冶炼加工环节产生的各类废料；报废产品回收，针对含稀 土的废旧电子产品等终端产品；社会流通废料回收，聚焦流通 ...