国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 13 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 13 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：情绪利好推升盘面，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 | 19 | | 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 | 19 | | 铁矿石：区间震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：事件扰动，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 28 ...

Group 1 - Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminum announced a partnership to build a 750,000-ton per year aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, with a total investment exceeding $5 billion, aimed at benefiting from U.S. tariff policies [1] - Following the announcement, the stock price initially dropped by 8.4%, closing at $51.96 on February 10, down 4.42% for the day, but saw a cumulative increase of 9.32% over the past five trading days, with a year-to-date gain of 32.62% [1] - Analysts from Montreal Bank highlighted the need to monitor project financing progress and aluminum price volatility risks [1] Group 2 - In the past week, Century Aluminum's stock exhibited significant volatility, with a single-day increase of 11.80% to $52.40 on February 6, followed by a further rise of 3.74% to $54.36 on February 9, before a 4.42% pullback to $51.96 on February 10 [2] - The latest stock price on February 11 was $53.48, reflecting a daily increase of 2.93%, with a cumulative gain of 12.52% over the last five trading days and a price fluctuation range of 21.75% [2] - The stock price drop of nearly 14% was influenced by the largest shareholder Glencore's reduction in holdings, with recent volatility partly attributed to profit-taking [2] Group 3 - Institutional outlook on Century Aluminum is positive, with five firms issuing buy or hold ratings in February 2026, setting a target average price of $59.75 [3] - Earnings forecasts indicate that adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 is expected to reach between $170 million and $180 million, primarily supported by premiums from the London Metal Exchange and Midwest aluminum premiums in the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto's stock price increased by 2.11% to $99.29 on February 11, 2026, following the breakdown of merger talks with Glencore, indicating that the rise was not driven by merger expectations [1] Recent Events - On February 5, 2026, Rio Tinto announced its withdrawal from acquisition talks with Glencore due to valuation disagreements. According to UK merger regulations, Rio Tinto cannot seek to acquire Glencore again for at least six months unless a competitive bidder emerges [2] Stock Price Movement Reasons - After the merger talks collapsed, market focus shifted back to Rio Tinto's fundamentals. JPMorgan resumed coverage on February 6, giving a "buy" rating with a target price of approximately $94, highlighting the company's cash flow advantages from iron ore, low-cost operations, and expansion into strategic materials like copper as core value supports [3] - The industrial metals and mining sector rose by 2.45% on February 11, benefiting Rio Tinto as a leading player in the industry [3] Performance Strategy - In its strategic blueprint released in December 2025, Rio Tinto emphasized its focus on iron ore, copper, and aluminum, planning to enhance efficiency through asset sales and cost control. The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 800,000 to 870,000 tons, with unit costs reduced to 80-100 cents per pound, reinforcing market expectations for profit improvement [4] Financial and Technical Aspects - From February 5 to 11, Rio Tinto's stock price increased by 2.91% with a volatility of 9.01%, and trading volume reached approximately $1.785 billion, indicating a gradual return of funds after initial emotional impacts. On February 11, the volume ratio was 0.58, with trading remaining relatively stable, and the stock broke through previous highs, indicating a strong technical pattern [5]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX.US) announced a partnership with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to build a new plant, leading to a decline in stock price due to market concerns regarding the project's short-term implications and funding dynamics [1] Recent Events - On January 27, 2026, Century Aluminum and EGA announced plans to construct a primary aluminum plant in Oklahoma with an annual production capacity of 750,000 tons. The total investment is expected to exceed $5 billion, with EGA holding 60% and Century Aluminum holding 40%. The project is set to commence construction by the end of 2026 and be operational before 2030. This collaboration aims to reduce U.S. dependence on aluminum imports and benefit from domestic aluminum premiums due to U.S. tariff policies [2] Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Century Aluminum's stock price dropped by 8.4% on the same day. Analysts from Montreal Bank noted that market concerns about high capital expenditures and cyclical risks in the aluminum industry, particularly amid uncertainties in tariff policies, contributed to this decline. While the partnership is expected to benefit capacity expansion in the long term, short-term risks related to financing and construction progress need to be monitored [3] Funding Situation - On November 15, 2025, the largest shareholder, Glencore, sold 9 million shares at $30.65 each, raising approximately $276 million. This sale led to a nearly 14% drop in stock price, interpreted by the market as a sign of concern regarding Century Aluminum's profitability, increasing selling pressure. As of February 10, 2026, the stock price was $51.96, down 4.42% for the day, but had increased by 9.32% over the past five trading days, with a year-to-date gain of 32.62%. The announcement of the partnership may have prompted some investors to take profits at high stock levels, resulting in a short-term pullback [4] Future Development - The partnership project is expected to increase Century Aluminum's equity capacity by 300,000 tons, combined with the full production plan of the Mt. Holly plant in June 2026, potentially doubling total capacity. The 50% aluminum import tariff in the U.S. and tax credits from the IRA act are expected to continue supporting domestic aluminum premiums. Attention should be paid to aluminum price fluctuations, the EU's CBAM carbon tariffs, and the progress of project financing [5]

Group 1 - Rio Tinto (RIO.N) announced its withdrawal from acquisition talks with Glencore (GLNCY.US) due to valuation disagreements, which led to the collapse of a potential merger that could have created the world's largest mining company [1] - Rio Tinto emphasized that it could not reach an agreement that would create value for its shareholders, while Glencore believed that Rio Tinto's terms undervalued its potential, particularly in copper business [1] - According to UK merger regulations, Rio Tinto cannot seek acquisition for at least six months unless specific circumstances arise [1] Group 2 - Following the breakdown of merger talks, Rio Tinto's stock price experienced significant volatility, dropping 5.56% to $91.12 on February 5, 2026, with trading volume increasing to approximately $644 million [2] - The stock partially recovered in the following days, with increases of 2.51% on February 6, 3.68% on February 9, and a slight rise of 0.40% to $97.24 on February 10, resulting in a total price fluctuation of 0.79% and a volatility of 6.53% during this period [2] - During the same timeframe, the industrial metals and mining sector saw a slight increase of 0.16%, while the Dow Jones index rose by 0.10% [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan resumed coverage of Rio Tinto on February 6, 2026, assigning an "Overweight" rating with a target price set at 7500 pence (approximately $94) [3] - The analysis highlighted Rio Tinto's cash flow advantages from iron ore, low-cost operations, and strategic expansion into copper and other materials as the basis for the rating [3] - This viewpoint was released after the merger talks collapsed, emphasizing the company's long-term fundamentals [3]

2026 年 2 月 11 日 战略属性价值抬升，铜价中枢上移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观方面，10月如期降息后美联储内部分歧加 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 24 ⚫ 风险点：联储12月暂停降息，美国经济现衰退迹 铜月报 象全球经济增速放缓 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，美联储1月暂停降息，新任提名主席 沃什主张的"降息+缩表"政策组合短期内或难 以实施，其政策独立性仍将受到挑战。美国当前 以聚焦核心利益为优先，试图扩大对西半球关 键矿产和资源的获取，而我国也计划扩大铜战 略储备规模，增强在铜产业链上游谈判中的话 语权和供应 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场供需两端格局明显 铜价维持震荡格局 期货行情： 2026-02-10，沪铜主力合约开于 101740元/吨，收于 101560元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.27%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 101,660元/吨，收于 101,730 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.13%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日沪铜现货报价区间为贴水40至升水50元/吨，均价升水5元/吨，较前日下跌30元/吨。主力合约2602 早盘冲高回落，收盘报101210元/吨。市场采销情绪双降，上海地区销售情绪指数2.65，采购指数2.55。持货商报价 分化，其中优质品牌因货源紧张报价坚挺，平水铜及非注册品牌则贴水扩大成交。进口维持亏损，隔月价差在350-450 元/吨。展望后市，随着进口货源到港与下游备货结束，市场呈现供需两淡局面。持货商部分惜售待交割，可流通 资源有限，而买方接货意愿低迷，预计现货升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普周二在接受采访时表示，若与伊朗的谈判失败，他正考虑向中东再派遣一个航母打击 群，以为可能的军事行动做准备。美国与伊朗上周五在阿曼重启谈 ...

有数据显示，2020–2022年锂电产业链涨价周期中，上游碳酸锂价格从4万元/吨底部启动，两年内最高 冲至60万元/吨，涨幅达14倍；当前时点产业扩产意愿显著低于2021年，2026年新增供给有限，而储能 等新兴需求持续超预期，稀有金属中具备类似资源刚性与下游高成长性的品种，价格弹性与盈利修复空 间值得重视。 此外，钴作为新能源与高温合金核心稀有金属，其供给格局正经历政策驱动型重塑。华西证券援引嘉能 可季报指出，刚果（金）已于2025年四季度解除钴出口禁令，转而实施配额管理制度，并允许未使用配 额延至2026年3月31日；嘉能可明确将优先保障铜出口，钴则按分配额度有序释放，超出配额部分以在 制品或成品形式在国内库存累积，该策略既响应监管要求，又为后续价格弹性预留空间。 稀有金属ETF基金（561800）跟踪的CS稀金属指数，该指数主要配置碳酸锂+小金属+稀土板块，碳酸 锂含量在30%~40%，是市面上含"锂"量最高的指数，为场内投资者提供一键布局稀有金属行业的优秀 投资工具。 场内ETF方面，截至2026年2月11日午间收盘，中证稀有金属主题指数(930632)强势上涨4.13%，成分股 东方钽业、章源钨业1 ...

商 品 研 究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 2026 年 02 月 11 日 铜：库存增加，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,560 | -0.27% | 101730 | 0.17% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,100 | -0.64% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 207,636 | -113,998 | 565,589 | -10,639 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,249 | -2,920 | 325,000 | -1,683 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 165,939 | 8,811 | - | - ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-11 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所长 早读 中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》 观点分享： 中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，下阶段将继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关 注长期收益率的变化。针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居民资产配置 调整最终会回流到银行体系，并不意味着流动性状况出现较大变化。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 石脑油 ★★★★ | | 石脑油：近端亚洲石脑油溢价持续上行，重石脑油对轻石脑油溢价来到同比高位，引发市场 | | 对于亚洲重整市场利润担忧。供应端来看，东西方套利物流减少或是驱动本轮石脑油溢价上 | | 行的主要原因，一方面美国由于处理委内瑞拉重油导致其大量重石脑油留在南美本地，而出 | | 口向欧洲以及亚洲地区体量急剧减少，另一方面西方对俄罗斯以及伊朗制裁导致油轮运费不 ...