证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 汽车行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 智能驾驶加速推进，建议关注业绩期行情 月度产销：根据乘联会数据，1 月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为 180 万辆， 环比下降 20.4%，同比增长 0.3%。其中新能源零售量预计为 80 万左右，渗 透率约 44.4%。12 月全国乘用车市场零售 226.1 万辆，同比下降 14.0%，环 比增长 1.6%。2025 年累计零售 2,374.4 万辆，同比增长 3.8%。12 月全国乘 用车厂商批发 278.9 万辆，同比下降 9.0%，环比下降 7.0%；2025 年累计批 发 2,955.4 万辆，同比增长 8.8%。根据中汽协数据，12 月汽车产销分别完 成 329.6 万辆和 327.2 万辆，环比分别下降 6.7%和 4.6%，同比分别下降 2.1% 和 6.2%。2025 年，汽车产销分别完成 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别 增长 10.4%和 9.4%。2025 年 12 月，乘用车产销分别完成 287.9 万辆和 284.7 万辆，环比分别下降 8.4%和 6.3%，同比分别下降 4.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in January 2026 is characterized by a stark contrast, with most automakers experiencing negative growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, highlighting the importance of having a diversified product lineup that includes both fuel and electric vehicles [5][6][7]. Sales Performance Summary - In January, the retail sales of passenger cars are expected to reach 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decline of 20.4%, with NEV sales around 800,000 units, marking a penetration rate drop to 44.4%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of 2025 [6][7]. - Traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and GAC Toyota reported stable sales due to their dual strategy of offering both fuel and NEVs, with SAIC's total sales reaching 327,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [10][11]. - Geely's total sales were 270,167 units, with fuel vehicles contributing significantly to its performance, while BYD faced a 30.11% decline in NEV sales, indicating the challenges faced by companies heavily reliant on NEVs [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The differentiation in sales performance among automakers is attributed to their strategic choices, particularly the presence of a fuel vehicle base, which enhances resilience against market fluctuations [9][19]. - The demand for fuel vehicles surged during the pre-Spring Festival period, as consumers preferred mature technology and the convenience of fuel vehicles for long-distance travel, further supported by the limited impact of policy changes on fuel vehicles [19][20]. Export Growth - Exports have become a crucial support for many leading automakers, with companies like Chery and SAIC reporting significant increases in overseas sales, indicating a dual strategy of maintaining domestic stability while expanding globally [17][18]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions signal a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, emphasizing the need for automakers to maintain a balanced portfolio of fuel and NEVs to navigate future uncertainties [22]. - Companies that can effectively manage their fuel vehicle base while rapidly advancing in the NEV sector are likely to emerge as market leaders, while those focusing solely on NEVs may face greater risks during market fluctuations [21][22].

| 序 | 企业/集团 | 新能源汽车销量(辆) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 比亚迪 | 210051 | | 2 | 吉利 | 124252 | | 3 | 上汽 | 85374 | | ব | 奇瑞 | 52131 | | 5 | 塞力斯 | 43034 | | e | 小米汽车 | 39000+ | | 1 | 零跑 | 32059 | | 8 | 理想 | 27668 | | 9 | 蔚来 | 27182 | | 10 | 广汽 | 26040 | | | | 数据来源：部分车企及上市公司外报数据 截至时间：2月2日 | 新年伊始，中国新能源汽车市场的竞争轮廓迅速显现，头部车企之间的差距在1月销量榜单中被进一步拉开。截 至2月2日，根据部分车企及上市公司对外披露的数据，比亚迪以超21万辆的新能源汽车销量位居行业首位，展现 出强大的市场竞争力，继续稳居中国新能源市场头部位置，并在主要车企中拉开明显差距。（深圳新闻网） ...

Overall Market - In 2025, China's automotive industry achieved record production and sales, with 34.53 million vehicles produced and 34.40 million sold, marking year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][5] - The market demonstrated strong resilience against global trade protectionism, supply chain restructuring, and intensified competition [1] Market Dynamics - The "Two New" policy expanded consumer goods categories and support for equipment upgrades, stimulating vehicle replacement demand, particularly in lower-tier cities [5] - The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) was facilitated by stable tax policies and improved charging infrastructure, lowering barriers for potential EV buyers [5] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards intelligent features and green travel, pushing the market towards higher quality development [5] Segmented Market - In 2025, new energy vehicles (NEVs) became the dominant growth segment, with production and sales reaching 16.63 million and 16.49 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [6] - NEVs accounted for 47.9% of total new vehicle sales, a 7 percentage point increase from the previous year [6] - The traditional fuel vehicle market is undergoing structural adjustments, with demand for high-displacement, high-fuel-consumption models declining, while smaller, hybrid models remain popular [10] Market Structure - Domestic brands solidified their leading position, with their market share exceeding 60% for the first time, driven by strong performances from companies like BYD, Geely, and Changan [13][15] - BYD led the market with over 4.6 million units sold, benefiting from its technological advancements in NEVs [15] - Joint venture brands faced significant pressure, with declining market shares due to slow adaptation to the NEV market and product homogenization [16] Export Market - In 2025, China's automotive exports exceeded 7 million units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, maintaining its position as the world's largest automotive exporter for three consecutive years [18] - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America remain key destinations for Chinese automotive exports, with NEVs becoming a significant export category [18] Sales Rankings - The top ten automotive brands in 2025 showcased a strong performance from domestic brands, with five spots occupied by them, and a combined market share of 37.3% [21] - BYD, Geely, and Changan maintained their positions through a dual strategy of fuel and NEV offerings [21] - Traditional joint venture brands like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen continued to experience declines, unable to offset losses from fuel vehicle sales with NEV growth [21] Emerging Brands - New entrants like Leap Motor and Hongmeng Zhixing showed remarkable growth, with Leap Motor doubling its sales through self-developed technology and competitive pricing [23] - Traditional automakers' NEV sub-brands also performed well, rapidly capturing market share through targeted strategies [23] Consumer Trends - Successful models in 2025 aligned with market trends, focusing on price adaptability, user needs, and technological highlights [24] - Family and young consumers emerged as core target groups, with vehicles designed for spaciousness and smart features gaining popularity [26] - The integration of new energy and intelligent technologies became essential for popular models, addressing consumer concerns about range and charging [26] Future Outlook - The strong rise of NEVs indicates China's automotive industry is positioned advantageously in the global transformation of the sector [28] - Continued policy support for NEVs and smart vehicles is expected, alongside growing consumer demand for high-quality, intelligent products [28] - The industry is likely to see further integration across the supply chain, enhancing competitiveness [28]

新能车ETF紧密跟踪中证新能源汽车产业指数，中证新能源汽车产业指数选取50只业务涉及新能源整 车、电机电控、锂电设备、电芯电池、电池材料等新能源汽车产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映 新能源汽车产业龙头上市公司证券的整体表现。 截至2026年2月4日 14:15，中证新能源汽车产业指数(930997)上涨0.51%，成分股银轮股份上涨10.01%， 亿华通上涨9.47%，盟固利上涨5.91%，富临精工上涨5.87%，宁德时代上涨4.91%。新能车ETF(515700) 上涨0.57%，最新价报2.46元。 消息面上，1月新能源车销量亮眼，造车新势力阵营的零跑汽车、蔚来、理想汽车等主要车企实现销量 同比增长。华为鸿蒙智行成绩亮眼，1月交付量同比增长高达65.6%。 开源证券指出，在购置税减免退坡及梯度以旧换新补贴预计对主流价位段新能源车销量造成较大影响的 背景下，2026年重点看好高端化发展方向。尊界S800连续蝉联超豪华轿车市场冠军，重点推荐国产超 豪华领军车企江淮汽车。其次，问界、极氪9X等车型在高端车市场持续放量，也有望明显增强相关车 企的业绩，看好赛力斯、吉利汽车等后续发展。同时，海外市场将继续成为车 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto has co-led the drafting of the mandatory national standard for "Automotive Door Handle Safety Technical Requirements," marking its commitment to safety standards in the automotive industry [1][15]. Group 1: Standard and Patent Information - Geely has participated in the formulation of 137 safety technical standards and has opened up 1,562 patent technologies to the industry [1][24]. - The national standard for automotive door handles is organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and is set to be implemented on January 1, 2027 [3][17]. Group 2: Safety Technology and Innovations - The automotive door handle safety technology includes three core protective mechanisms: ensuring low-voltage circuit safety, optimizing functional logic during collisions, and maintaining mechanical redundancy for door operation [22]. - Geely is also sharing a collection of patents related to automotive door handle safety, which includes six core patents from both domestic and international sources [5][19]. Group 3: Commitment to Industry Safety - Geely's Global Safety Center, recognized with five Guinness World Records, will continue to share its safety innovations with the entire industry, promoting safety equity [1][30]. - The company is also opening up additional safety technology patents, such as those for emergency window breaking and battery safety, to enhance the safety of new energy vehicles [12][27].

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company and China's Geely are in discussions regarding a potential collaboration, focusing on utilizing Ford's manufacturing space in Europe for producing vehicles targeted at that market [1][2]. Group 1: Collaboration Discussions - The two companies are negotiating for Geely to use Ford's factory space in Europe to manufacture cars for the region [1][2]. - Discussions also include a potential framework for sharing vehicle technologies, including autonomous driving technology [1][2]. - Negotiations regarding European manufacturing have reportedly made significant progress, with Ford sending a delegation to China to strengthen talks [1][2]. Group 2: Background and Context - Geely executives met with Ford leadership in Michigan last week, indicating ongoing engagement between the two companies [1][2]. - The negotiations have been ongoing for several months, but details remain private as discussions continue [1][2]. - Ford has stated that it engages in discussions with various companies on multiple topics, with outcomes varying [1][2]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - A partnership with Geely could help Ford catch up with global competitors in connected car technology and autonomous driving, areas where Tesla is prioritizing development [1][2]. - Ford's CEO, Jim Farley, has publicly emphasized the need to close the competitive gap with Chinese automakers [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company is in negotiations with Geely regarding a potential collaboration that may involve allowing Geely to utilize Ford's factory space in Europe [1] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The discussions include establishing a potential framework for technology sharing, which encompasses vehicle technologies such as autonomous driving [1]

Group 1 - Ford and China's Geely are in discussions about a potential partnership [1] - The collaboration aims to share technology and resources as the automotive industry evolves [1] - This move reflects a broader trend among global carmakers to seek strategic alliances [1]

Strategy - Public funds increased allocation to optical communication (+2.1 pct), semiconductor equipment (+0.3 pct), and packaging/testing, while reducing allocation to chip design (-1.3 pct), gaming (-0.8 pct), and advertising (-0.3 pct) in Q4 2025[13] - The market saw a slight decrease in the TMT sector's share of active equity funds from 39.8% in Q3 2025 to 38.0% in Q4 2025[13] Electronics - The PCB industry is expected to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature, with capacity release and product structure optimization driving non-linear performance improvements[33] - Data center construction is recovering, significantly increasing storage requirements for AI servers, leading to an optimistic outlook for storage prices in 2026[34] Computing - The emergence of end-side agents and data infrastructure is driving AI technology towards system-level collaboration and deeper industry integration[35] Media - The competition for AI traffic entry is intensifying, with major companies accelerating monetization in advertising and e-commerce, particularly during the Spring Festival[36] - OpenAI is preparing for an IPO in Q4 2026, with a projected valuation between $750 billion and $830 billion after the latest funding round[36] Robotics - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies showing growth potential in key components and solutions[37] - Investment opportunities are emerging in incremental component markets, driven by the evolving aesthetic preferences of the robotics market[37] Automotive - Zeekr 9X received an L3 testing license, while Tesla has begun operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin[38] - Geely and Jianghuai Automotive are recommended for their low valuation and strong order performance, with Geely's expected PE ratio over 6 times indicating potential for rebound[38]