会议助理 1: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 王子杰 中泰证券机械分析师: 好的呀，各位投资者，大家好，我是中泰机械王子杰。那这里的话，我跟各位投资者汇报 一下这个锂电设备的观点。那我们会议的主题总结为周期拐点，固态元年。其实也可以说 是对 26 年对整个锂电设备板块的投资策略的一个缩影。那分成两个维度进行汇报。首先 是整个行业的复盘以及展望，然后再是这个固态电池的兴起对整个板块带来的影响。首先 是行业层面，为什么说是板块周期拐点？那从这个订单和业绩两个维度来看，在经历了这 个 23、24 年两年的沉沦之后。 其实我们从 25 年开始，逐步看到整个锂电设备板块，公司在这个订单以及体现的业绩的 层面的话，有一个逐步修复的一个过程。那从 20 到今年年的话，其实也算是经历了一个 相对来说比较完整的锂电设备周期。那复盘下来，其实每个阶段都有他们的特点。那我们 对在 20 年到 22 年的，对中，这个锂电设备的观点是全面开花。那 22 年的话，是贝塔上 行，阿尔法分化。那在扩产的早期，驱动股价上涨的因素更多的是订单，只要有这个新的 定点和订单，其实股价都有非常正向的反馈。 那在早周期的早期，其实更多整个板 ...

Group 1: Energy Consumption Milestone - In July, China's total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time in a month, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of the ten ASEAN countries combined, and surpassing the total of Germany and France [1] - This figure represents a doubling compared to ten years ago, marking a historic milestone in energy consumption [1] Group 2: Historical Context of Energy Sources - The evolution of energy sources has been pivotal in shaping civilizations, with coal playing a crucial role in the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the British Empire [3][4][6] - Coal's energy density far exceeds that of wood, with one million tons of coal releasing heat equivalent to the combustion of six million acres of forest [7] - The transition from coal to oil marked a significant shift in energy dynamics, with the U.S. emerging as a leader in oil production after the first modern oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859 [9][12] Group 3: China's Energy Strategy - China, as the world's largest industrial nation, faces a unique energy challenge with abundant coal reserves but heavy reliance on imported oil and gas [13] - The country is pursuing a significant energy revolution, transitioning from fossil fuel dependence to renewable energy sources, particularly electricity [14] - China's strategy includes maximizing coal's clean and efficient use while aggressively expanding renewable energy capacity in wind and solar [14] Group 4: Implications for Industry and Technology - The recent surge in electricity consumption supports high-end manufacturing and a fully digitalized smart society, indicating a profound industrial transformation [14][15] - The electric vehicle industry has seen a 25.7% increase in electricity consumption, while solar manufacturing has surged by 30%, highlighting the energy-intensive nature of these sectors [15][16] - The rise of AI and data centers, which require substantial energy, underscores the importance of electricity as a strategic resource for future competitiveness [17][18] Group 5: Future Outlook - China's annual electricity consumption has surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for one-third of global consumption, while the U.S. stands at approximately 4 trillion [19] - The ongoing construction of the world's largest hydropower station and plans for over a hundred new nuclear power plants aim to establish China as a leading energy power [19][20] - Electricity is evolving from a mere commodity to a core strategic resource that influences national strength and global capital flows, signaling the onset of a new industrial revolution centered around China [20]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the HuShen 300 ETF managed by CICC, which saw a 0.95% increase, closing at 1.281 yuan with a trading volume of 6.5798 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the HuShen 300 ETF include notable stocks such as Ningde Times, which rose by 0.99%, Kweichow Moutai by 2.59%, and Ping An Insurance by 1.75% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the HuShen 300 Index return, with a total return of 26.82% since its inception on April 16, 2025, and a recent one-month return of 0.17% [1]

Group 1 - A500ETF Zhongjin (512080) increased by 1.50% to 1.356 yuan with a trading volume of 13.8984 million yuan as of the midday close on February 25 [1] - Major holdings of A500ETF Zhongjin include CATL up 0.99%, Kweichow Moutai up 2.59%, Ping An Insurance up 1.75%, and Zijin Mining up 2.19% [1] - The performance benchmark for A500ETF Zhongjin is the CSI A500 Index return, managed by Zhongjin Fund Management Co., Ltd. The fund has a return of 33.60% since its establishment on January 14, 2025, and a return of -0.39% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The battery ETF Southern (159147) increased by 2.04% with a transaction volume of 27.09 million yuan, while key stocks in the index, such as Defu Technology, Tianhua New Energy, and Duofluoride, saw significant gains of 10.19%, 7.61%, and 6.32% respectively [1] - The U.S. government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries, including batteries, citing "national security" as the reason. This move follows the Trump administration's use of Section 232 to expand tariffs beyond the existing 15% global rate [1] - Analysts indicate that if tariffs are implemented, the President can unilaterally adjust them, providing greater operational flexibility in policy continuity and execution. The tariffs will significantly increase export costs, prompting overseas clients to accelerate orders [1] Group 2 - Sodium battery technology has shown breakthroughs and mass production capabilities, demonstrating resilience in supply diversity. Sodium batteries offer superior low-temperature performance and lower costs, complementing lithium batteries and showing promising prospects in energy storage and power battery applications [2] - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 6.9% and industrial-grade by 7.46% in the last week. This price surge is driven by a temporary improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with downstream production expected to increase by over 15% starting in March [2] - The Southern Battery ETF (159147) closely tracks the CSI Battery Theme Index, which includes listed companies involved in power batteries, energy storage batteries, consumer electronics batteries, and related upstream and downstream industries. The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL, Sungrow Power, and others [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant shift in the automotive trade dynamics between Germany and China, highlighting the decline of German car exports to China and the rise of Chinese automotive brands in the European market [1][7][11]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - German car exports to China are projected to drop below €14 billion by 2025, a decrease of nearly 50% from nearly €30 billion three years ago [3][7]. - In January, Chinese automotive brands saw an 80% year-on-year increase in sales in Europe, capturing a market share of 7.4%, nearly double from a year prior [3][9]. - The demand structure in the Chinese market is changing, with local brands rapidly improving their product offerings in the new energy vehicle sector, which is squeezing the market share of German automakers [7][9]. Group 2: Market Performance - BYD has become the best-selling Chinese automotive brand in Germany, with January sales reaching 2,069 units, a 1000% increase year-on-year [9][12]. - The overall European market saw a 3.6% decline, while Chinese brands' sales surged, indicating a significant competitive shift [9][10]. - The sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) from Chinese brands accounted for 29% of their total sales in Europe in January, up from 11% the previous year [12][18]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - German automakers are adapting by enhancing local R&D capabilities and forming partnerships, such as Volkswagen's investment in XPeng and collaborations with Horizon Robotics [18][20]. - The decision-making cycle for German car manufacturers is longer, typically taking 3-5 years for new models, while Chinese companies can iterate in about 18 months, creating a competitive disadvantage for German firms [20][21]. - German Chancellor Merz's visit to China aims to negotiate for more time for the German automotive industry to adjust to these changes [21][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The interaction between the Chinese and European automotive industries is evolving from a one-way technology transfer to a two-way technology flow, which could foster mutual technological advancements [23]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with both sides needing to adapt to the changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [6][23].

（图片来源：摄图网） 马年新春，当宇树科技的人形机器人在春晚舞台上完成后空翻、精准挥舞棍术时，全球观众见证的不仅是一 场科技表演，更是一个时代的序章。短短一年，从2025年扭秧歌的笨拙可爱，到2026年展现武术功底的灵活 矫健，国产人形机器人的运动能力与智能水平实现了跨越式提升。这个曾经只存在于科幻电影中的钢铁伙 伴，正以惊人的速度从实验室走向工厂，从科技前沿走向日常生活。 近日，清华大学智能产业研究院院长张亚勤预测，未来10年机器人数量会超过人类数量，替代人类的一些工 作。人类未来一周只需工作2天，工资不会减少甚至还会变高。 张亚勤表示："在2035年，就是10年，我们的机器人数目会超过人类的数目，超过70亿80亿，它代替了工 作，然后也会创造很多新的一些工作，我乐观认为，再过10年可能我们工作两天一周，拿的薪水不能减少， 薪水还是更高，这是一个前提。" 张亚勤预测背后折射出的是人形机器人产业正以指数级速度重构人类生产生活方式的深层现实。这种速度首 先体现在技术迭代的颠覆性节奏上——曾经需要数十年才能成熟的工业技术，如今在人工智能与高端制造的 交叉领域被压缩至以月为单位进化，机器人的运动控制能力从蹒跚学步到 ...

Group 1 - The battery ETF (561910) rose over 1.29%, with notable increases in stocks such as Defu Technology and Tianhua New Energy, which rose over 8% [1] - In January, China's total production of power and energy storage batteries reached 168.0 GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 55.9% [1] - In January, the combined sales of new energy vehicles in nine European countries reached 209,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with an electric vehicle penetration rate of 29.4% [1] Group 2 - The State Council issued opinions on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for basic completion by 2030 and full completion by 2035 [1] - Many companies in the CSI Battery Index are expected to report positive earnings, with significant profit increases due to rising upstream material prices; for instance, Tianqi Materials and Duofluo reported net profit growth of 230% and 190%, respectively [1] - Leading battery manufacturers also showed strong performance, with Guoxuan High-Tech's net profit increasing by 148% and Penghui Energy's by 191% [1] Group 3 - The forecasted upper limit of net profits for various companies includes: XianDao Intelligent at 1.8 billion with a 529.15% increase, Daoshi Technology at 580 million with a 269.76% increase, and Tianqi Materials at 1.6 billion with a 230.63% increase [2] - The solid-state battery production is expected to enhance industry growth, with a projected 60%+ increase in large storage demand by 2026 due to national capacity compensation pricing policies [2] Group 4 - The battery ETF (561910) tracks the CSI Battery Theme Index, with nearly 40% solid-state battery content and nearly 60% energy storage content, including major players like Ningde Times and Sunshine Power [3] - The ETF covers the entire battery industry chain, including power, storage, and consumer electronics [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [7] Core Views - The cancellation of IEEPA tariffs and the introduction of a 15% tariff under the 122 clause could lead to a marginal improvement of 5% to 10% in tariffs for various components, benefiting companies like Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others [2][10] - The potential for the Trump administration to implement additional tariffs under clauses 201, 232, 301, and 338 could maintain the overall tariff levels, impacting the competitiveness of domestic products against overseas counterparts [4][10] - The demand for electric new equipment in the U.S. remains strong, with a projected revenue share of 16% or less for sample companies in 2026, indicating resilience against tariff fluctuations [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Changes and Impacts - The report outlines two scenarios regarding tariff changes: an optimistic scenario with a 15% tariff leading to a 5% to 10% reduction in marginal tariffs for various components, and a pessimistic scenario where additional tariffs could keep overall levels unchanged [2][4] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling is expected to narrow the tariff gap between domestic and overseas production by 1% to 5% due to the new uniform 15% tariff [3] Company Recommendations - The report highlights several companies as favorable investment opportunities, including: - Ningde Times (300750 CH) with a target price of 566.18 - Sunshine Power (300274 CH) with a target price of 198.63 - Yihua Lithium Energy (300014 CH) with a target price of 96.96 - TBEA (600089 CH) with a target price of 33.31 - Foster (603806 CH) with a target price of 19.97 [14] Market Dynamics - The electric new equipment sector is experiencing high demand due to the inability of overseas suppliers to meet urgent needs, particularly in the transformer market, which is expected to have a supply gap until at least 2027 [5] - The report emphasizes that the tariff adjustments will have a limited impact on the main photovoltaic industry, while auxiliary materials and lithium battery sectors may benefit significantly [3][10]

Summary of Energy Storage Industry Update - February 24, 2026 Industry Overview - The energy storage industry is experiencing significant growth, with January 2026 showing a doubling in installed capacity compared to the previous year [1] - The data indicates a robust performance in both new installations and bidding activities [1] Key Metrics - **Installed Capacity**: In January 2026, the domestic new installed capacity reached 3.78 GW and 10.90 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of +62% and +106% respectively, effectively doubling the previous year's figures [1] - **Bidding Activity**: The bidding volume for January 2026 was 12.3 GW and 36 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of +60% and +130% after adjusting for the impact of bulk procurement in January 2025, indicating sustained high growth [1] Market Segmentation - **Independent Storage**: Independent storage accounted for 90% of the new installations, with a breakdown of new installations as follows: - Independent storage: 3.2 GW and 9.6 GWh, year-on-year increases of +249% and +298% [1] - Other types: New energy storage accounted for 8%, thermal power storage for 2%, and area-based storage for 1% [1] Regional Insights - The provinces contributing most to the new installations include: - Xinjiang: 32% - Jiangsu: 21% - Hebei: 11% - Guangdong: 8% - Shanxi: 6% [2] Investment Landscape - Third-party enterprises have emerged as the primary investors in the energy storage sector, with the following distribution of investment sources: - Five major and six minor companies: 17% - Two grid companies and two construction firms: 5% - Local energy groups: 33% - Third-party enterprises: 45% [2] - The internal rate of return (IRR) for storage projects is considered attractive, suggesting a strong investment appeal [2] Future Outlook - The second quarter is anticipated to enter a peak season for the industry, with expectations of an explosion in orders [3] - Recommended companies for investment include: - Integrated sector: Haibo Sichuang (leading domestic large storage), Kelun Electronics (announced U.S. orders), and Sunshine Power (currently undervalued) - Battery sector: Ningde, yw, xwd, ph - Material sector: Lithium carbonate, Enjie, Tianci, Yuno [3] Conclusion - The energy storage industry is poised for continued growth, driven by strong demand, attractive investment returns, and a competitive landscape among various stakeholders. The upcoming quarters are expected to see increased activity and order volumes, making it a promising sector for investment.