Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

证券研究报告 印度宣布焦煤为战略性矿产， 看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第4周） 2026年2月1日 行业评级：看好 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月30日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨3.98%，沪深300指数上涨0.08%，跑赢沪深300指数3.9个百分点。全板块整周30只股价上涨，6 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为14.5%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月23日-2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为758万吨，周环比增加0.9%，年同比增加59.6%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周增加1.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少2.7%，无烟煤销量较上周增加0.4%。截至2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为753万吨，周环比增加1.5%，年同比增加 56.5%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2225万吨，周环比减少1.5%，年同比减少25.2%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累 ...

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给年前略有收缩，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 26 日至 1 月 30 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 7 元/吨，报 收 692 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 155.18 万吨，环比上周减少 2.52 万吨，降幅 1.60%；本周产地供应来看，山西较为稳定，陕西、内蒙略 有减少，港口供应量有所降低。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量189.33万吨，环比上周增加15.35 万吨，涨幅 8.82%；日均锚地船舶共 100.50 艘，环比增幅 21%；环渤海 四港区库存端 2468.60 万吨，环比上周减少 160 万吨，降幅 6.10% 。本 周港口调出量增加，库存显著降低，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，但港口库存仍处于较高位置，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，且 工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计 煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关 ...

| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 5 期） 25 年行业利润下降 42%，26 年盈利有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 0 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给年前略有收缩，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 26 日至 1 月 30 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 7 元/吨，报 收 692 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 155.18 万吨，环比上周减少 2.52 万吨，降幅 1.60%；本周产地供应来看，山西较为稳定，陕西、内蒙略 有减少，港口供应量有所降低。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量189.33万吨，环比上周增加15.35 万吨，涨幅 8.82%；日均锚地船舶共 100.50 艘，环比增幅 21%；环渤海 四港区库存端 2468.60 万吨，环比上周减少 160 万吨，降幅 6.10% 。本 周港口调出量增加，库存显著降低，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，但港口库存仍处于较高位置，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，且 工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计 煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the coal market, with expectations of stable to increasing coal prices due to ongoing high demand and tightening supply conditions [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in coal companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, particularly in light of the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,847.47 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 19,430.80 billion yuan [2]. 2. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Yancoal Energy are highlighted for their robust operational performance and strategic growth plans [12][13]. - China Shenhua is expected to achieve a net profit of 495-545 billion yuan in 2025, while Shanxi Coking Coal anticipates a significant decline in profits due to market pressures [8]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen a slight increase, with the average price at the Qinhuangdao port reported at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan [8]. - The international coal price has also risen, with Newcastle coal futures closing at 111.75 USD per ton, marking a daily increase of 2.43% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces in China reached 6.648 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.48% [8]. - Supply constraints are expected as many private coal mines prepare for seasonal shutdowns, leading to a reduction in overall coal supply [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and growth potential, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8][12]. - It also highlights the potential for companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma to rebound as market conditions improve [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly before the holiday, with expectations for a stronger market post-holiday. Supply has tightened due to the upcoming holiday and production targets being met, while demand has increased due to cold weather affecting power plant consumption [10][11]. - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and a significant decrease in Indonesia's production targets for 2026 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are less affected by production limits [10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jin控煤业 (Jin控 Coal Industry): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 山煤国际 (Shan Coal International): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 潞安环能 (Luan Environmental Energy): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [2]. - 华阳股份 (Huayang Co.): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15 [2]. - 兖矿能源 (Yankuang Energy): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中国神华 (China Shenhua): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 14 [2]. - 陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中煤能源 (China Coal Energy): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE ratio of 113 [2]. - 新集能源 (Xinjie Energy): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 8 [2]. - 淮北矿业 (Huaibei Mining): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 7 [2]. - 兰花科创 (Lanhua Sci-Tech): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.0% compared to a 0.1% increase in the CSI 300 index [17][20]. - Notable performers include 陕西黑猫 (Shaanxi Black Cat) with a 14.50% increase and 盘江股份 (Panjiang Coal) with a 13.25% increase [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply due to production limits and increased demand from power plants, leading to a potential price increase in the coal market [10][11]. - The focus on high dividend yield companies is emphasized as a defensive strategy amid uncertain international conditions [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading coal enterprise in East China, focusing on a diversified strategy that emphasizes coal production while expanding into coal chemical, power generation, and aggregate businesses [6][8] - The report highlights the certainty of production increases from the resumption of the Xinhui Mine and the upcoming production of the Taohutu Mine, which are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profitability [9][10] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns through a planned dividend distribution of no less than 35% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2025-2027 [10][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining is a major coal enterprise in East China, with a focus on coal mining, processing, and chemical production, supported by a strong state-owned background [6][17] - The company has a total share capital of 2,693.26 million shares and a market capitalization of approximately 33,827.33 million yuan [1] Business Growth and Diversification - The company is actively pursuing a multi-faceted growth strategy, with coal production as the core, while also expanding into coal chemicals, power generation, and aggregates [8][9] - The Xinhui Mine, with a capacity of 3 million tons/year, is expected to resume production, contributing significantly to net profits in the coming years [29] - The Taohutu Mine, with a capacity of 8 million tons/year, is set to begin production in 2026, further enhancing the company's output and profitability [32] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 429.81 billion, 477.28 billion, and 508.09 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.95 billion, 26.24 billion, and 41.02 billion yuan [12][7] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 22.6X, 12.9X, and 8.2X for the respective years, indicating potential value for investors [12][7] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to enter a phase of reduced capital expenditure as major projects near completion, which will enhance its ability to return value to shareholders [10][12] - The planned dividend policy reflects a commitment to shareholder returns, with a minimum payout ratio set at 35% of net profits [10][12]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]