Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy has issued a report recommending the food and beverage industry, highlighting the upcoming IPO of "Mingming Hen Mang," which is set to become the first stock in the bulk snack sector in Hong Kong, with a positive market response and significant investor interest [1] Group 1: Downstream Developments - The traditional store model has substantial room for expansion, with an expected increase to nearly 50,000 snack retail stores by 2025, indicating a total potential of about 74,000 stores, with over 20,000 new openings anticipated [2] - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with adjusted net profit margins for "Mingming Hen Mang" rising from 2.3% to 3.9% and "Wancheng" from -1.6% to 4.4% from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced store subsidies and category structure adjustments [2] - New store formats are supporting expansion and improving single-store performance, with both "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Wancheng" planning to open discount supermarket formats by 2025, currently representing less than 20% of new store formats [2] - Development of proprietary products is boosting revenue and gross margins, with both companies focusing on customized and private label products, which currently account for a single-digit percentage of revenue, indicating significant growth potential compared to competitors [2] Group 2: Upstream Opportunities - Downstream store category expansion into dairy, baking, and frozen foods is expected to benefit related upstream supply chain companies, particularly mid-tier brands with significant revenue elasticity [3] - The push for proprietary products in downstream stores may lead to market share differentiation among supply chain companies, with those possessing strong product development and customization capabilities likely to gain market share [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The food retail industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a phase of high-quality growth, with "Wancheng Group" recommended and "Mingming Hen Mang" noted for attention due to their revenue growth and profitability improvements [4] - Upstream, companies benefiting from the expansion into new product categories include "New Dairy" and "Lihigh Foods," with "Yiming Foods" also noted for attention [4] - As downstream stores increase their proprietary product share, supply chain companies with strong R&D and customization capabilities are expected to gain market share, with "Jinzai Foods" recommended and "Yanjin Foods," "Weilong," "Youyou Foods," and "Ganyuan Foods" noted for attention [4]

Key Recommendations - The report highlights a positive outlook for the chemical industry, suggesting a longer cycle based on historical profit recovery, with an average ROE of 10.14% expected between 2024 and 2026, compared to peaks of 16.32% in 2007 and 17.6% in 2021 [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, driven by a recovery in demand and the emergence of new retail formats [13] Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, which was below the market expectation of 1.5% [10] - The CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, while the PPI showed a smaller decline of 1.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between PPI and CPI [12] Market Performance - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,136 points, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices also recorded gains [21] - The report notes that 94% of sectors in the market closed in the green, with significant gains in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, which rose by 10.07% [23] Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a recovery phase, supported by the clearing of outdated facilities in Europe and Japan, and a slowdown in new projects domestically [6] - The retail sector is experiencing a shift towards online consumption, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% year-on-year, while physical retail is adapting to new business models [10][11] Policy Developments - The report mentions the release of the "Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Plan," which aims to establish a national commercial aerospace launch base, indicating a strategic push in the aerospace sector [14] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption in 2026, marking it as a critical year for economic recovery [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][11]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][11][15]. - The report highlights a diversified performance across sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and liquor categories [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a cumulative decline of 1.37% this week, with A-shares down 1.57% and H-shares up 1.21% [1]. - Key performers included companies like Hao Xiang Ni and Wei Zhi Xiang, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Liquor**: - Moutai's price remains stable with an upward trend, and the focus is on sales momentum during the Spring Festival. Recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][11]. - **Beverages**: - The dairy segment is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a focus on leading companies like Yili. Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [2][15]. - **Snacks**: - The report emphasizes strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong innovation [2][13]. - **Catering Supply Chain**: - The sector is entering a peak season for inventory and sales, with new standards for prepared dishes being solicited for public opinion [2][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on four main lines for investment: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven companies, and potential recovery in the liquor sector [3][11]. - Recommended stocks include Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have shown resilience and growth potential [17][19]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Key companies are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with Moutai expected to achieve a stable performance and Yili showing significant recovery potential [4][15][19]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector [4][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Insights**: The sector shows signs of consumption recovery despite a near-term property market downturn. Valuation remains attractive, approximately 1 standard deviation below 10-year averages, indicating that a consumption recovery is not yet priced in [2][21]. Consumer Staples - **Baijiu**: Anticipated demand support for mid-end baijiu due to easing alcohol bans and private consumption growth. Companies are expected to accelerate channel transformations for sustainable EPS growth [3][8]. - **Beer**: Premiumization continues through product diversification and in-home channel expansion, despite on-trade softness. CR Beer expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2025, with Heineken volumes projected to grow by 20% YoY [3][8]. - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales are expected to recover modestly in 2026, driven by marketing and innovation, despite a weak 2025. Fresh milk shows resilience with double-digit growth [3][8]. - **Freshly-Made Beverages (FMB)**: Guming is expected to maintain steady SSSG in 2026 through category expansion and dine-in growth, despite the phase-out of delivery subsidies [3][8][19]. - **Condiments**: Sequentially improving demand is expected, with Haitian focusing on multi-product categories and Jonjee anticipating a cleaner 2026 after a weak 4Q25 [3][8]. Consumer Discretionary - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea and Haier expect higher overseas growth compared to domestic markets in 2026. Strategies include price hikes and operational efficiencies [4][10]. - **Jewelry**: Brands with unique designs may consolidate post-VAT reform. Laopu is expected to achieve strong sales growth due to increased focus on value-added services [4][10]. - **Restaurants**: Intense competition leads to divergent strategies, with some companies lowering prices while others upgrade offerings. DPC Dash is on track for expansion despite market uncertainties [4][10]. Stock Implications - **Most Preferred Stocks**: CR Beer, Guming, MIXUE, China Foods, YUM China, among others, are highlighted as preferred investments due to their growth potential [5]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: Companies like Swellfun, Nongfu, and Gree are noted as less favorable due to various challenges [5]. Key Risks - Risks include demand recovery uncertainties, cost inflation or deflation, and changes in the competitive landscape. These factors could significantly impact the consumer sector's performance [21]. Additional Insights - **Pet Food**: The industry is shifting towards online sales, with over 85% of sales occurring digitally. Competition is intensifying, pushing brands towards innovation and product differentiation [13]. - **Snack Sector**: Rapid category diversification and channel restructuring are creating growth opportunities, particularly through snack discounters [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector.

Core Viewpoint - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" is set to launch its IPO on January 28, 2026, aiming to become the first stock of its kind in the Hong Kong market, despite facing challenges related to its rapid expansion and low profit margins [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - "Mingming Hen Mang" was established in 2017 and has rapidly expanded through a franchise model, targeting lower-tier markets, resulting in a significant increase in store count to 21,000 by November 2025, with a net addition of 14,400 stores in less than two years [2][15]. - The company operates on a model similar to a middleman, with a gross margin of less than 10%, but has achieved high revenue growth due to its large scale, reporting revenues of 46.371 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 1.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2025, the company reported revenue growth from 4.286 billion yuan to 46.371 billion yuan, with compound annual growth rates of 203% over three years [8]. - The adjusted net profit increased from 81 million yuan in 2022 to 1.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 234.6% during the same period [8]. Group 3: IPO Details - The company plans to raise approximately 3.3 billion HKD (about 2.97 billion yuan) through its IPO, with a share price range set between 229.60 and 236.60 HKD [6][4]. - Major investors, including Tencent and Temasek, have committed around 195 million USD (approximately 1.52 billion HKD) to participate in the IPO [5]. Group 4: Market Competition - The company faces significant competition from "Wancheng Group," which has a higher gross margin and is also expanding rapidly, with reported revenues of 36.562 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10]. - As of September 2025, "Mingming Hen Mang" had over 180 million registered members, while "Wancheng Group" had 15,365 stores and over 110 million active members [11][10]. Group 5: Operational Challenges - The company relies heavily on franchise stores, which account for 99.9% of its outlets, leading to governance challenges and quality control issues, as evidenced by numerous consumer complaints regarding product quality [13][16]. - The average monthly profit per store has decreased to approximately 5,500 yuan, and the payback period for franchisees has extended from 12 months to an average of 29 months [15][14].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery and growth in various sectors, particularly in the AI, automotive, and renewable energy industries, driven by policy support and technological advancements [8][17][26]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,136.16 with a slight increase of 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.79% to 14,439.66 [3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices stands at 16.88 and 53.36 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [9][10]. International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, reflecting a mixed global market sentiment [4]. Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic battery sector is leading the market, with significant upward momentum observed in A-shares [5]. - The aerospace and semiconductor industries are also showing strong performance, contributing to the overall market stability [5][10]. Key Data Updates - The report notes a significant increase in the export of pet food, with a year-on-year growth of 15.49% in December 2025, indicating a robust demand in the pet food sector [16]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with a 45.07% increase in the sector's index for 2025, driven by rising global demand and technological advancements [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and electric vehicles, which are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market trends [19][26][32]. - Companies with strong supply chain capabilities and those involved in the production of new energy technologies are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [19][32].

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, highlighting significant growth potential in the consumer sector [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on specific segments within the consumer industry, such as tourism, beauty, jewelry, media, and food and beverage, which are expected to show resilience and growth [4][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Social Services - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with leading companies responding effectively to changing consumer demands, particularly as the Spring Festival approaches [4]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can quickly adapt to market dynamics [4]. - The jewelry sector presents investment opportunities, particularly for brands that can increase market share and maintain strong performance [4]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - Major liquor companies are experiencing a deeper decline in net profits compared to previous quarters, but leading firms are expected to enhance market share through effective brand management [4]. - The report identifies three key investment lines: high-end liquor with stable demand, mid-range liquor with national expansion, and local real estate liquor [4]. Food and Beverage - General - The at-home dining market, represented by companies like Guoquan, shows significant growth potential, with a focus on product, channel, and supply chain advantages [4]. - The restaurant sector is entering a peak season with the upcoming Spring Festival, and supply chain conditions are stabilizing [4]. Key Company Announcements - China Duty Free Group is expanding its international retail market presence through a strategic partnership with LVMH, which includes a significant acquisition [12]. - Meili Tianyuan is forecasting a revenue increase of at least 16% in 2025, driven by both external acquisitions and strong internal growth [15]. - Longzi Co. is expecting a net profit of 9-10.5 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a positive outlook despite some adjustments in financial reporting [15].

Group 1 - The event held on January 24 in Beijing allowed representatives and committee members to engage with various government departments, showcasing a blend of traditional and innovative products [1] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce presented promotional materials and showcased cross-border products from time-honored brands, emphasizing convenience and gift attributes for the upcoming New Year [1] - The Bureau highlighted specific products such as the "Da Da Cake" from Daoxiangcun, which symbolizes good fortune, and the collaboration between Liubiju and Yanjinpuzi to create a new product, reflecting the trend of cross-industry integration [1] Group 2 - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Radio and Television is promoting high-quality performances to reach grassroots levels, integrating AI and audiovisual technology to create a new cultural service model [3] - The bureau displayed guides for filming and food photography in Beijing, aimed at supporting film and television enterprises [3] - New derivative products based on popular shows, such as character figurines and themed models, are attracting younger consumers and driving spending [3] Group 3 - The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Bureau introduced bilingual registration guides for foreign investors, aimed at improving efficiency in the registration process [4] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism presented various travel guides and maps, including a new "Red Tourism Map" to encourage exploration of the city [4] - The bureau also showcased playful cultural products, such as the "Fat Dada" toy, which serves as an overseas promotional ambassador [4] Group 4 - The Beijing Ethnic and Religious Affairs Commission utilized cultural products and historical compilations to promote the concept of a shared Chinese national community [5] - A manual titled "Historical Narratives of the Community" was introduced, detailing the interactions among various ethnic groups in Beijing's history [5] - The commission's products, including beautifully designed notebooks and bookmarks, aim to resonate with younger audiences and promote cultural unity [5]