叶诗人之分堂 相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 03 月 03 日 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 我们对重点公司 2025 年度业绩进行预测：2025E 业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有：吉比 ○ 特、大麦娱乐、美图公司、猫眼娱乐、心动公司、泡泡玛特、光线传媒、世纪华通；同 比增速在 20-50%区间的有：恺英网络、三七互娱、巨人网络：同比增速在 0-20%区间 的有：腾讯控股、快手；同比增速低于0%区间的有：分众传媒、神州泰岳、阅文集团、 芒果超媒；同比扭亏的有：完美世界、哔哩哔哩。 游戏：25 年手游增长国内基数提升增速放缓，端游和出海亮眼。2025 年全年/26 年 1 ● 月，国内手游同比增速 7.92%/-1.52%，端游同比增长 14.97%/23.46%，自研游戏出海 同比增长 10.23%/24.05%。国内游戏市场有局部亮点：大 DAU 年轻向游戏，包括搜打 撤品类、端游。出海游戏系 SLG 品类持续突破。展望 2026 年，国内重点关注长青游戏 的普及，出海游戏重点关注休闲品类突破。 O 云计算和大模型：Agent、多模态突破，国产模型性价比优势明显，拉动 to ...

行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 03 月 03 日 Token 爆发利好 AI 云和大模型， 游戏 PC 及出海亮眼 看好 ——互联网传媒 2025 年四季度业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.co ...

去年中期业绩大幅倒退的猫眼娱乐，想不到全年业绩迎来大翻身，公司发布盈利预喜，预计 2025 年盈利将大幅增长 ▶ 公司预计全年盈利同比最高增长逾两倍 ▶ 期内收入上升12.7%至15% Image Key takeaways: 去年初，《哪吒2》打破多项纪录，劲收154.6亿元，更成为全球有史以来最卖座的动画片。正当人们对电影业及相关公司业绩寄予厚 望时，线上电影票务平台 猫眼娱乐 （1896.HK）的中期业绩却给市场泼了冷水，盈利同比大幅下滑37%。 《哪吒2》之后，第二季度电影市场后劲不足，更有分析估计《哪吒2》透支了庞大观众的消费力，预计下半年相关企业表现并不乐 观。岂料猫眼娱乐近日发布盈喜，似乎再次令众多投资者大跌眼镜。 公司预计2025年收入介于46至47亿元水平，同比上升12.7%至15.1%。收入升幅虽仅一成多，但盈利则达到5.4亿元至5.9亿元，同比大 幅增长196.9%至224.4%。 另外，去年全国营业性演出的票房收入表现理想，达到617亿元，同比上升6.4%。市场向好，集团在现场演出业务上也因此受益， GMV创历史新高，增速远超同行。 除收入增加外，成本控制也取得成效。集团聚焦优质影片的 ...

证券研究报告：传媒|点评报告 发布时间：2026-03-02 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 926.46 | | 52 周最高 | 1021.75 | | 52 周最低 | 591.71 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -17% -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 传媒行业点评 春节档表现整体承压，持续关注优质内容供给 ⚫ 事件回顾 2026 年 2 月 24 日，猫眼专业版公众号发布《2026 春节档数据洞 察》，春节档电影总票房为 57.52 亿元，同比下降 39.5%；总观影人次 为 1.20 亿，同比下降 35.8%。 ⚫ 投资要点 ⚫ 投资建议 我们建议关注光线传媒、中国电影、上海电影、光线传媒、北京 文化、华策影 ...

从单片表现来看，《飞驰人生3》作为IP系列续作，以超29亿的绝对优势，稳居档期票房榜首；聚焦国安题材影片 《惊蛰无声》以8.67亿档期票房成绩位居第二；漫改武侠电影《镖人：风起大漠》与合家欢动画《熊出没·年年有熊》分别 以8.06亿、7.13亿票房成绩位列第三、第四。在《飞驰人生3》和《镖人：风起大漠》的带动下，今年春节档购票画像也首 次更偏向年长男性。 作为本届春节档票房冠军，《飞驰人生3》展现出了成熟IP再春节档的优势，通过高认知+强转化带来票房基本盘，再 通过稳定的口碑表现带来票房突破。数据显示，《飞驰人生3》映前累计想看人数达97.8万创系列新高，首映日票房6.41亿 也刷新了系列首映日的票房纪录。影片制作持续升级，视效层面的突破获得观众高度认可，上映前两日单片IMAX票房占 比均超90%。 除头部影片领跑外，档期中亦涌现口碑黑马。武侠片《镖人：风起大漠》成为今年春节档唯一实现票房逆跌的影片。 《洞察》显示，影片首日票房排名仅第4，到第四日已成功升至第2，场次占比与票房占比同步走高。作为男频热血漫改作 品，《镖人：风起大漠》集齐几代功夫影星，精彩的动作戏成核心亮点，观众对主创及角色的评价占比达38.8 ...

大年初七，电影春节档收官，《飞驰人生3》凭借近30亿票房断层领先。今年春节档，既有赛车的时速较量，也有 武侠里的刀光剑影，还有现实世界里的人性抉择，给观众延续"合家欢"的传统。 2026年是电影经济促进年，而在这一理念提出的首个重要档期期间，北京、江苏、云南等多地推出电影消费券， 激发电影消费潜力。据灯塔研究院2026年春节档电影市场洞察报告（下称：灯塔春节档报告），今年春节档电影 场次破了纪录，达435.1万；平均票价47.8元，创下2021年以来最低价。 | स्टेस | 猫眼 | 灯塔 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年 | 57.52亿 | 57.52亿 | | 2025年 | 95.1亿 | 95.1亿 | | 2024年 | 80.16亿 | 80.16亿 | | 2023年 | 67亿 | 67.58亿 | | 2022年 | 60.35亿 | 60.35亿 | | 2021年 | 78亿 | 78.22亿 | | 2020年 | | | | 2019年 | 58.3亿 | 58亿 | | 2018年 | 57.43亿 | 57.71亿 | 《飞驰人生3》《惊蛰无声》领 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a shift in the cinema industry, where merchandise sales are gaining attention and becoming valuable collectibles for younger audiences, referred to as "new emotional products" [1] - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.752 billion yuan, a significant drop from the previous year's 9.5 billion yuan, indicating a need for the industry to reassess its ecosystem and content supply [4][5] - The company Tian'an Chuangqi is leading this transformation by integrating IP commercialization and content space operations, aiming to create a comprehensive cultural consumption space rather than just a single screening terminal [5][6] Group 2 - Tian'an Chuangqi has established a strong foundation in IP commercialization over the past eight years and is now exploring more commercial possibilities within cinema spaces [5][12] - The introduction of non-film IPs, such as LINE FRIENDS, has marked a significant change in merchandise sales, allowing for sustained sales cycles independent of specific film releases [9][10] - The company has developed a standardized product system and established a stable product release rhythm, collaborating with over 3,500 cinemas by 2023 [10][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of content integration in cinema spaces, as traditional film offerings are declining, and there is a need to utilize idle screening times effectively [13][14] - Tian'an Chuangqi acts as a connector between the industry and market, creating new consumption scenarios by integrating content, products, and space [14][21] - The company is also expanding its focus beyond just 2.5D content, collaborating with various artists and exploring immersive experiences like VR concerts [21][22]

Core Insights - The outdoor sports market is experiencing increasing polarization, with companies like Amer Sports showing significant growth while others like Li Ning and Anta are struggling [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a 27% year-on-year revenue increase to $6.566 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with adjusted net profit rising to $545 million from $236 million in 2024 [1][2]. - In Q4 2025, Amer Sports' revenue grew by 28% to $2.101 billion, with adjusted net profit reaching $176 million, up from $90 million in the same quarter of 2024 [2]. - The Greater China region was a key growth driver for Amer Sports, with annual revenue increasing by 43.4% to $1.86 billion, and Q4 growth reaching 41.8% [2]. Market Comparison - In contrast, Li Ning's sales in Q4 2025 showed a low single-digit decline across all channels, with offline retail and wholesale channels experiencing mid-single-digit declines [3]. - Anta's main brand retail revenue also saw a low single-digit decline, while Nike's sales in China dropped by 16% to $1.423 billion [4]. Market Dynamics - The disparity in performance between Amer Sports and its competitors may be attributed to the resilience of the high-end consumer market, represented by brands like Arc'teryx, compared to the mid-range market [5]. - The outdoor sports market is perceived to have substantial growth potential, prompting increased investments from competitors like Nike and Li Ning in this segment [6][7].

Group 1: Performance of Amer Sports - Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 27% to $6.566 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with adjusted net profit rising to $545 million from $236 million in 2024 [1] - In Q4 2025, Amer Sports' revenue grew by 28% to $2.101 billion, with adjusted net profit reaching $176 million compared to $90 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The Greater China region was a significant growth driver, with annual revenue increasing by 43.4% to $1.86 billion and Q4 growth reaching 41.8% [1] Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - In contrast, Li Ning's sales in Q4 2025 showed a low single-digit decline across all channels, with offline channels experiencing a mid-single-digit decline [2] - Anta's main brand retail revenue also saw a low single-digit decline, while Nike's sales in China dropped by 16% to $1.423 billion [2] - The performance disparity may indicate that the high-end market, represented by brands like Arc'teryx, is more resilient compared to the mid-range market [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Competition - The outdoor sports market is perceived to have significant growth potential, prompting brands like Nike and Li Ning to increase their investments in this sector [4] - The competitive landscape in the domestic outdoor market is expected to intensify as major brands expand their presence [5]

其次，猫眼参与多部电影项目，成绩及盈利不俗，包括《唐探1900》带来36亿票房收入、《浪浪山小妖 怪》票房17亿、《长安的荔枝》带来6.91亿元票房、《鬼灭之刃：无限城篇第一章猗窝座再袭》带来 6.78亿元票房及《罗小黑战记2》带来5.33亿元票房。花旗预测，今次盈喜公布将带动该股股价表现正 面，并继续视猫眼为电影板块中内容投资的关键领导者。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，猫眼娱乐(01896)发盈喜，预计2025财年收入为46亿至47亿元人民 币(下同)，符合该行46.6亿元预测;纯利5.4亿至5.9亿元，同比增长197%及224%，胜花旗预测4.22亿元， 高出34%。花旗予猫眼娱乐目标价9.3港元，基于2026年调整市盈率14倍，评级"买入"。 花旗认为，猫眼去年业绩表现优异原因在于，去年是中国电影的好年份，电影《哪吒2》带来150亿元票 房贡献，而去年中国总票房为520亿元，较花旗预测的470亿高出6%，猫眼作为最大票务平台，有利其 票务收入。 ...