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美股异动|金银价格双双创新高,带动贵金属板块上涨
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-20 14:55
Group 1 - The precious metals sector has seen significant gains, with Iamgold rising over 12%, Kintavar Exploration up more than 7%, and Silvercorp, AngloGold Ashanti increasing by over 5% [1] - Spot gold has surpassed $4,750 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, with a cumulative increase of over $400 in 2026 [1] - Spot silver has also reached a new historical high, standing at $95 per ounce [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that recent threats from the U.S. to impose tariffs on multiple European countries have created substantial uncertainty, prompting investors to sell off dollar assets and move towards safe-haven assets [1]
Salazar Resources Closes $1.4 Million Private Placement
TMX Newsfile· 2025-12-22 11:45
Financing Details - Salazar Resources Limited closed a non-brokered private placement financing, raising gross proceeds of $1,430,498 by issuing 11,003,830 common shares at a price of $0.13 per share [1] - Finder's fees amounted to $15,600 in cash and 120,000 finder's warrants, each allowing the purchase of one common share at $0.13 for two years [1] - Net proceeds will be allocated to fund costs on the Company's resource properties and for general working capital purposes [1] Insider Participation - Certain insiders purchased an aggregate of 839,600 shares in the financing, which is classified as a "related party transaction" [3] - This transaction was exempt from formal valuation and minority shareholder approval requirements as it did not exceed 25% of the Company's market capitalization [3] - No directors expressed disagreement regarding the insider participation, and a material change report was not filed 21 days prior to the closing due to unconfirmed details at that time [3] Investor Relations Agreement - The Company entered into an investor relations and communications agreement with Baystreet.ca Media Corp, which will provide marketing services for an initial term of three months starting January 2026 [5] - Compensation for Baystreet will be $20,000 per month, with no securities issued as compensation [6] - The agreement is subject to approval by the TSX Venture Exchange [6] Company Overview - Salazar Resources Limited focuses on discovery, exploration, and development in Ecuador, with a strong understanding of the local geology [7] - The Company has interests in three projects, including a 25% stake in the Curipamba project and a 20% stake in the Pijili and Santiago projects [7] - Salazar Resources is committed to sustainable progress through economic development, co-founding The Salazar Foundation [7]
2026年铅期货年度行情展望:供需双弱,上下有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the judgment that the lead market will maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand in 2026, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The main operating range for Shanghai lead is 16,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and for London lead, it is 1,900 - 2,100 US dollars/ton [1][67]. - In 2026, the domestic market may have a slight surplus. The supply of lead ore is expected to improve, the supply of waste batteries may increase slightly, and the production of refined lead will continue to grow. The demand side may be supported by the continued replacement consumption and the positive growth of two - wheeled electric vehicles. The energy storage demand is growing explosively, and the incremental space for lead - carbon batteries is broad. However, the export of lead - acid batteries may face pressure, and the overall supply - demand situation is weak, with prices remaining range - bound. The price - holding intention in the waste battery recycling sector is strengthening year by year, which is expected to continuously lift the bottom of the lead price [1][67]. - It is recommended to pay attention to seasonal fluctuation opportunities. After the small spring of consumption at the beginning of the year, consumption weakens marginally, and prices may fall under pressure. In the middle of the year, battery manufacturers replenish stocks in advance for the consumption peak season, while the supply of waste batteries does not increase significantly during the replacement consumption peak season, which may bring a temporary supply - demand gap and inject upward momentum into prices [2][67]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Review: First Decline then Rise, with a Slow Uptrend in the Center of Gravity - In January 2025, the lead price declined due to the end of downstream inventory preparation, high finished - product inventory, and a potentially longer Spring Festival holiday. In February, the price rose initially but then fluctuated after factoring in the expected production increase of large downstream manufacturers. In March, the price increased as consumption recovered and downstream battery companies increased inventory. In April, it declined due to macro - tariff impacts and the entry into the consumption off - season. In May and June, prices fluctuated in a weak supply - demand situation [7]. - From July to December, the lead price showed a complex trend. In July, it first rose and then fell due to changes in supply and demand. In August, it fluctuated weakly. In September, it rose after a period of fluctuation. In October, it trended strongly with obvious supply pressure on primary lead and incremental demand. In November, it climbed and then declined as primary lead production increased and secondary lead production grew rapidly [8][9]. 2. Supply - Demand Weakness, with Dull Fundamental Contradictions 2.1 Lead Ore Supply is Rigid, but There Will Be Increment in the Next Year - In the long - term, overseas mining enterprises' capital expenditure in lead ore has been low, resulting in relatively rigid global lead ore production. The supply cycle of lead ore is more closely related to that of zinc ore. In 2025, global lead ore supply disturbances increased, and overseas production increments were limited. For 2026, there is an expected increment of 100,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.2% [10][13][14]. 2.2 Domestic Mines Increased Production This Year, but Realistic Contradictions Still Exist - In 2025, from January to November, China's lead concentrate production increased by 10.4% year - on - year, mainly due to the production increase of mines such as Xinjiang Huoshaoyun. It is expected to contribute an increment of 100,000 tons in 2026. The continuous tight supply of lead concentrate has squeezed the profit margin of primary lead smelting. China's lead raw material import structure is becoming more diversified, but the import profit of lead concentrate is meager [20][26]. 2.3 Insufficient Endogenous Power, Driven by By - Product Profits - Since March 2025, the thickening of primary lead plant profits has driven high - level production. By - product profits such as silver and sulfuric acid have become the main factors driving the supply elasticity of primary lead plants. Assuming that the prices of by - products remain high in 2026, primary lead supply is expected to continue to grow slightly, and supply elasticity may increase [33][34]. 2.4 Problems in Secondary Lead Supply Still Exist, Forming a Strong Constraint - China's secondary lead production capacity is severely over - supplied, and the shortage of raw materials has led to low - level production. Since the second quarter, secondary lead enterprises have suffered losses, and it is expected that the production of secondary lead will continue to decline in 2026. Although there will be more incremental supply in the long - term, the growth rate of capacity expansion may slow down, and some enterprises are transforming to a multi - raw material production mode [36][37]. 3. Is the Demand Really Collapsing: A Flash in the Pan or a Steady Stream? 3.1 Policy Boosts Consumption, Electric Bicycles Return to Positive Growth, and Automobile Exports Contribute Significantly - In 2025, new national standards and national subsidy policies have stimulated the growth of the electric bicycle industry. Automobile consumption policies have also continuously increased, and the trade - in policy has effectively boosted consumption. It is expected that the trade - in subsidy scale will continue to be maintained at 300 billion yuan in 2026 [46][52][53]. 3.2 Explosive Growth in Energy Storage Demand, Vast Incremental Space in the Future - The energy storage demand for lead - acid/lead - carbon batteries is growing explosively. Lead - acid batteries have cost, safety, recycling, and low - temperature performance advantages, but also have performance shortcomings. In 2025, the lead consumption of lead - carbon batteries was 27,300 tons in the first three quarters, and it is expected to increase by 28,300 tons in 2026, with a marginal contribution to consumption of 0.4% [60][61]. 3.3 High Domestic - Foreign Price Ratio and Tariff Impacts Weigh on Lead - Acid Battery Exports - In 2025, the export volume of lead - acid batteries declined rapidly due to the expansion of the domestic - foreign price ratio and tariff impacts. The anti - dumping tariff imposed by the GCC on Chinese lead - acid batteries will take effect in 2026, which may significantly reduce the export volume [64]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the lead market will maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. The main operating range for Shanghai lead is 16,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and for London lead, it is 1,900 - 2,100 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to seasonal fluctuation opportunities [67].
流动性风险升温,铅价突破走强
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures broke through and rose strongly. The smooth progress of China-US economic and trade consultations provided a good macro - atmosphere. The slow resumption of refineries, better - than - expected downstream demand, and vehicle control due to environmental protection in Henan intensified the short - term supply - demand mismatch. The social inventory dropped to a low level, triggering a soft squeeze on near - month contracts. Although refineries are resuming production and the lead ingot import window is open, it takes time. Before the market supply is effectively alleviated, the lead price is expected to remain volatile and strong [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 17th to October 24th, the SHFE lead price increased from 17,075 yuan/ton to 17,595 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,971 dollars/ton to 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 45.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.66 to 8.73, up 0.06. The上期所库存 decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 3.19 million tons, and the spot premium remained unchanged at - 215 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai lead futures PB2512 had an intraday abnormal movement on Thursday, breaking through 17,500 yuan/ton and continuing to rise. The main contract price increased with increased positions. On Thursday night, the market sentiment was digested, and on Friday, the lead price fluctuated and consolidated at a high level, finally closing at 17,595 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1%. LME lead fluctuated strongly. The easing of China - US trade relations improved market risk appetite, and the slight decline in LME inventory led to a small rebound after stabilization, returning above the 2,000 dollars/ton level, finally closing at 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. In the spot market, as of October 24th, the price of lead in Shanghai market was 17,490 - 17,550 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2511 contract. The high - level consolidation of Shanghai lead made the sellers' enthusiasm for selling average, with few and firm quotes. Due to the expanded price difference between futures and spot, traders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, and the spot circulation in the retail market further decreased. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the high price of lead made them cautious in purchasing, mostly relying on long - term contracts or digesting existing inventories [5]. Industry News - In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the import ore processing fee was - 125 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton. From January to August 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 51,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 17,000 tons in the same period last year. Hebei will control incoming vehicles, affecting the transportation of waste materials and lead ingots of local recycling lead and lead battery enterprises. An East China small recycling lead refinery postponed its resumption of production. Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, an 8% year - on - year increase. In September, the import volume of lead concentrate was 150,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. A Jiangxi recycling lead smelter suspended production in late October [8][9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycling lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][14][16][18][20][22][24][28].
铅锌日评20251022:沪铅区间整理,沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251022
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:54
Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the market shows both supply and demand growth. The resumption of a large recycled lead smelter in North China has increased refined lead production, but raw material supply is tight. The short - term lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and continuous attention should be paid to the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and macro - sentiment changes [1]. - For zinc, the market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, demand has not significantly improved. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventories, the LME 0 - 3 back structure has deepened, and overseas structural risks should be vigilant [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,000.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 17,160.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the basis was - 160.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,993.00 dollars/ton, down 0.05%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.61, up 0.64% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 43,537.00 hands, up 57.42%; open interest was 33,556.00 hands, down 12.15%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.30, up 79.19% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 28,133.00 tons, down 3.87% [1]. Industry Information - A large recycled lead smelter in North China has resumed production, with daily refined lead output exceeding 500 tons, but raw material supply is tight [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 152,131 hands, down 3,442 hands [1]. - Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, up 8% year - on - year [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,870.00 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 21,970.00 yuan/ton, up 0.53%; the basis was - 100.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,993.50 dollars/ton, up 0.59%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.34, down 0.06% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 108,521.00 hands, up 25.60%; open interest was 130,442.00 hands, up 98.81%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, down 36.83% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,275.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 66,268.00 tons, down 0.23% [1]. Industry Information - Silvercorp's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 5.6 million pounds, down 3% year - on - year [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 211,259 hands, down 13,012 hands [1]. Investment Strategy - For both lead and zinc, the trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1].
有色金属衍生品日报-20251021
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 12:00
Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]
Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) Soars 11.5%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-10-14 13:16
Core Insights - Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) shares experienced an 11.5% increase, closing at $8.64, with a notable trading volume, contributing to a 73.8% gain over the past four weeks [1] Company Developments - Almonty has filed a legal application against Pure Tungsten Inc. in the Ontario Superior Court, claiming that misleading statements from Pure Tungsten threaten market integrity and shareholder interests [2] - A large-scale drilling program commenced at the Sangdong Molybdenum Project in South Korea to confirm molybdenum reserves, addressing a local shortage [3] - The Sangdong mine is one of the largest tungsten deposits globally, with Phase I production expected to start this year, targeting a throughput capacity of 640,000 tons of tungsten ore annually [5] Industry Context - Tungsten is critical for various applications due to its hardness and high melting point, with China controlling approximately 82% of global production, highlighting the urgency for alternative production sources [4] - The expected construction completion of Phase II of the Sangdong project by 2026 aims to increase throughput to 1.2 million tons of tungsten ore per year [5] Financial Expectations - Almonty is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.00 per share, reflecting a 100% year-over-year change, with revenues anticipated at $17.33 million, a 248% increase from the previous year [6] - The consensus EPS estimate for Almonty has remained stable over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may be influenced by earnings estimate trends [7]
海外铅锌矿企业季度运营分析:锌矿放量预期不变,铅矿紧缺隐忧已现
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-02 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish; Lead: Sideways [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, overseas zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year, while lead concentrate production decreased. The zinc smelting industry is expected to see increased supply in Q2, but the lead market has uncertainties due to production disruptions. In June, lead and zinc prices will be demand - driven. For zinc, short - term oversupply is expected, and for lead, the market is in a bearish pattern [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining companies announced their Q1 2025 production. Some adjusted their 2025 production guidance. The report statistics cover 30 overseas leading mining companies, with the sample proportion of zinc concentrate rising from 60% to about 65% and that of lead concentrate from 40% to 49% [11]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Production - **Zinc Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.312 million metric tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase and a 4% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The increase was due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, a low base in the previous year, and fewer disruptions. The decrease was due to seasonal factors and end - of - year production rushes [12]. - **Lead Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample lead concentrate production was 300,000 metric tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease and a 9.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The decline was mainly due to lower ore grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [13]. 3.3 Production Changes and Factors of Individual Mining Companies - **Zinc Concentrate**: The top five companies with year - on - year production increases were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Boliden, Group Mexico, and Sibanye - Stillwater. The top five with decreases were Teck, NEXA, Peñoles, MMG, and South32. The increase was mainly due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, etc. The decrease was due to lower grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [27][29]. - **Lead Concentrate**: Companies including Volcan, Glencore, Vedanta, Pan American Silver, and Silvercrop contributed to the year - on - year increase, while South32, Newmont, Aurelia Metals, NEXA, and MMG contributed to the decrease [27]. 3.4 Zinc Mine Costs - The 90% cash cost quantile of zinc mines in 2025 is $1,993/ton, a 9.3% year - on - year decrease. Although the LME zinc price has declined, the mining end still has sufficient profits. Different companies' cost changes vary due to factors such as mining costs, processing fees, and by - product contributions [47]. 3.5 Production Guidance - Among 13 leading mining companies, only South32 slightly lowered its annual production guidance in Q1. The total 2025 production is expected to be between 2.839 and 3.1 million metric tons, a 4.7% year - on - year increase. Some projects are expected to increase production, while others may continue to face production declines [48][50]. 3.6 TC Views and Investment Recommendations - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: There may be a slight upward space in Q2 2025, but in the second half of the year, upward movement may be restricted or even decline slightly due to factors such as domestic seasonal production increases, bearish zinc price expectations, and potential overseas production shortfalls. - **Lead Concentrate TC**: Overseas production is expected to increase slightly in Q2 2025, but domestic imports may be limited, and there is a downward expectation for the medium - term TC. - **Investment Strategy**: For zinc, in June, it is recommended to short on rallies on a medium - term basis and maintain a long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and overseas markets. For lead, it is recommended to look for medium - term long opportunities after demand reaches a low point [52][53].
Are Basic Materials Stocks Lagging EMX Royalty (EMX) This Year?
ZACKS· 2025-03-18 14:46
Group 1: Company Performance - EMX Royalty Corp. has returned 9.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Basic Materials sector's average return of 8% [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EMX's full-year earnings has increased by 33.3% over the past three months, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a more positive earnings outlook [3] - EMX Royalty Corp. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting strong potential for future performance [3] Group 2: Industry Context - EMX Royalty Corp. is part of the Mining - Miscellaneous industry, which includes 59 stocks and currently ranks 183 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] - The average return for stocks in the Mining - Miscellaneous industry this year is 7.3%, indicating that EMX is performing better than its peers in this specific industry [6] - Another stock in the Basic Materials sector, Silvercorp, has significantly outperformed the sector with a year-to-date return of 38.3% [4][5]