三大引擎持续给黄金"加油" 地缘政治这把火越烧越旺 俄乌冲突还没结束，中东又烽烟四起，加上今年全球70多个国家要举行大选，国际局势就像坐在火药桶上。这时候，黄金作为传 承千年的"避震器"，自然成为资金争抢的香饽饽。数据显示，每当风险事件爆发，黄金ETF持仓量就会激增20%以上。 货币政策大转向在即 美联储嘴上说着"不着急降息"，身体却很诚实。市场普遍预测今年至少会有两次降息，一旦利率下调，持有黄金的机会成本就大幅降 低。历史数据表明，美元指数每下跌1%，金价平均上涨0.8%，这种负相关关系在未来可能更加明显。 最近打开手机，满屏都是金价创新高的消息。你是不是也在纠结：现在上车还来得及吗？手里攒的"小金库"该不该继续捂着？别急，看完这篇分析再做决 定。 黄金为何突然"起飞"？ 2024年春天，黄金上演了一出"飞天记"——3月5日突破2100美元/盎司后，短短一个多月就飙到2400美元，这种涨势连华尔街老炮都直呼罕见。更惊人的 是，从2022年11月到2024年5月，金价累计上涨44%，完全无视美联储加息的大环境。这背后的逻辑，可不仅仅是简单的通胀预期。 中国央行已经连续18个月增持黄金，波兰、土耳其等新兴市场也 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 9月20日，交易者同盟会天津站活动顺利进行，除了常规的主题演讲以外，还在圆桌论坛上分享了关于黄金走势的看法，提醒大家本周 金价仍然存在继续创历史新高的可能，果不其然，今天直接兑现。 许导的全国百城线下巡讲还在继续，本周计划在广州有线下活动，届时台风桦加沙应该已经过去，咱们这个周末在广州又可以聚啦，敬 请关注公众号的更新！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"元首通话与中东局势"，"点阵图与10月停摆"，"LPR按兵不动与存储芯片"，"国产算力与消费电子"四个方面 解读了基本面的一些信息，并结合中美，中东，核保护，点阵图，驴象之争，金银油，LPR，存储芯片，AI设备，人民币，A股，港股 等给出了接下来的布局思路。 "大概率，川普还是要被华尔街打脸的，咱们拭目以待吧。" 如上图所示，上周接受媒体采访的时候，许导认为，"鲍威尔的讲话整体上偏鹰派，金价从历史的高位回落，实际上就是金融市场非常 典型的买预期卖事实的走法。但是，鉴于持续的地缘政治紧张局势、美元中期预期走弱以及持续的经济不确定性，任何回调都可能吸引 新的买盘。" 以上两件事，全部兑现。 美联储最终选择降息25个基点，并配合着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, indicating a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was already anticipated by the market, leading to a sell-off in gold as traders took profits [1][2]. - Prior to the rate cut, gold prices surged from $3,350 to $3,744 per ounce, reflecting excessive market trading on the expectation of multiple rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious statements post-meeting indicated that the rate cut was a risk management measure rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, contributing to the decline in gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which influenced the Fed's decision to cut rates [4]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting that the economic context differs from previous years [4]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential short-term profit-taking in the stock market following the Fed's rate cut, which could lead to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for gold, although the primary driver for gold's price movement remains monetary policy expectations [7]. - Long-term, concerns about U.S. dollar credibility and the expansion of U.S. debt could provide upward momentum for gold prices, despite short-term fluctuations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations recently, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On September 18, the COMEX gold futures contract peaked at $3744 per ounce, marking a historical high since its listing, but subsequently fell by $39.6 to close at $3678 per ounce [2]. - As of September 19, COMEX gold was reported at $3677 per ounce, indicating a notable drop after the initial surge [2]. - The market had already priced in the expectation of a rate cut before the Federal Reserve's announcement, leading to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was perceived as a risk management move rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, which contributed to profit-taking among gold bulls [2][3]. - Market expectations had previously anticipated two rate cuts by the end of the year, but the actual cut was less than expected, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices [3][4]. - The cautious tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the uncertainty of future rate cuts, did not provide a strong signal for further easing, causing market doubts about the rate cut trajectory [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which raised concerns about the economy [5]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the core PCE inflation rate still above the 2% target, indicating that the economy may not require aggressive rate cuts [5][6]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - Wall Street's outlook on gold has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential market corrections following the Fed's rate cut, as the market had already priced in the easing [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8][9]. - Long-term factors driving gold prices include concerns over U.S. dollar credibility and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, which may provide upward momentum for gold [9].

整体来看，美指美债收益率的反弹压制了黄金价格，黄金价格因而下跌。 美国国债收益率集体攀升，10年期国债收益率上升3.2个基点至4.108%，创下9月初以来首次连涨，并实 现一个月来最大双日涨幅；30年期收益率则上涨5个基点至4.724%。 日内收盘，沪金下跌0.41%，报收830.56元/克。 美元指数延续反弹走势，再度上涨0.4%至97.347，周四美联储决议公布后，美元指数一度跌至96.22的 2022年2月以来新低，但鲍威尔的非鸽派表态迅速扭转颓势。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 本次美联储利率决议市场解读偏中性对于影响基本计入，随着美元指数止跌回升，9月以来贵金属价格 持续快速突破并创新高后部分周期技术指标反映市场已经出现超买迹象，在"买预期卖事实"的逻辑下多 头驱动暂缓资金离场使贵金属回调。展望后市在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径 呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征持续压低美元指数和美债收益率，同时欧美国家政治和地缘局 势动荡使机构投资者对贵金属避险的配置需求增加带来价格中枢不断抬升，后续等待10月美联储会议酝 酿新的利多因素。短期黄金走势或转入高位震荡整理保持区间操作思路，可以在 ...

美联储降息落地，金价随之震荡加剧。 9月18日，伦敦金现陷入调整，盘中曾一度跌至3633.485美元/盎司。随后，国际金价又实现短线拉升， 截至记者发稿，伦敦金现上涨0.36%，报3672.2美元/盎司。前一日即9月17日，伦敦金现收跌0.83%，报 3658.89美元/盎司。 受访人士认为，短期来看，降息预期已被充分定价，政策落地后不排除因利好兑现而导致金价波动加 剧。但从中长期看，降息环境往往伴随实际利率下行与美元信用边际趋弱，有望继续推动"去美元化"进 程，叠加全球央行购金需求旺盛、地缘风险持续、全球经济增速放缓及贸易格局演变等多重因素，后市 金价仍存在有力支撑。 金价震荡 9月18日，伦敦金现陷入调整后，实现短线拉升。截至记者发稿，伦敦金现上涨0.36%，报3672.2美元/ 盎司，盘中曾一度跌至3633.485美元/盎司。前一日即9月17日，伦敦金现收跌0.83%，报3658.89美元/盎 司。 值得注意的是，此前在短短1个月内，国际金价一路强势走高，自突破3500美元/盎司后更是屡创历史新 高，9月16日盘中一度突破3700美元/盎司。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | -- ...

最新点阵图显示年底前将再降息50个基点，但鲍威尔对降息节奏保持审慎态度。FOMC投票结果显示，除斯蒂芬·米兰主张降息50个基点外，多数委员支持 25基点降息。美联储声明指出，近期通胀数据虽有所上升但仍处于"较高水平"，同时承认2025年上半年经济增长已显现放缓迹象。经济预测摘要（SEP）显 示，联邦基金利率中值预计年底达3.60%，暗示年内仍有50基点降息空间。 劳动力市场与通胀动态 美联储周三降息25个基点并释放2025年继续宽松信号，但鲍威尔鸽派程度不及预期致金价暴跌近1%。周四亚市早盘，现货黄金围绕3660美元震荡，接近前 日收盘价3659.79美元。美元指数（DXY）在降息后反弹约0.50%至96.93，10年期美债收益率攀升4.5基点至4.079%，实际收益率飙升至1.70%，形成对贵金 属的短期压制。 金价周三创3707.35美元历史新高后快速回落，周四在3660美元附近整固。14日RSI持续发出超买信号，预示短期上行空间受限但整体趋势仍偏多头。上行目 标看向3750及3800美元，首要支撑位在3650美元，跌破后将考验9月11日低点3613美元（略高于3600心理关口）。 经济数据与政策预期 鲍 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "dot plot" indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, lowering the policy rate range to 4.00%-4.25%, which is more dovish than previous expectations, suggesting a relief from stagflation risks [1] - The latest economic forecast shows a year-end inflation rate median of 3%, above the 2% target but unchanged from the previous quarter; the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.5%, and economic growth is slightly increased from 1.4% to 1.6% [1] - The Federal Reserve is shifting its view on the temporary impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, prioritizing the prevention of economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which provides a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, the Shanghai gold price fell by 1.78%, closing at 824.1 yuan per gram [3] - According to GF Futures, the market interpreted the Federal Reserve's rate decision as neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline; since September, precious metal prices have rapidly surged and reached new highs, indicating overbought conditions [4] - The outlook suggests that with increasing risks in the U.S. job market, the Federal Reserve's policy path exhibits dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations and compromised independence," which continues to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [4]

周四凌晨，美联储以11-1的比例投票决定降息25个基点至4%-4.25%，符合市场预期，但最新点阵图以及鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态抑制了市场对快速、 大幅降息的预期。 这导致现货黄金在利率决议公布后先快速上冲至3707美元/盎司，再创历史新高，随后从高点一度短线下挫最多近50美元，截至发稿日内下跌0.4%，报 3645.18美元/盎司。 这是美联储今年首次降息，此前美联储在2024年三次降息后，自去年12月以来暂停了政策调整。当利率下降时，黄金往往会受到青睐，因为较低的收益率会 降低持有无收益资产的机会成本。 澳新银行分析师在一份研究报告中表示，投资者为降息周期的开始而欢呼，然而，美联储主席鲍威尔的言论不像市场预期的那样偏鸽，抑制了金价的涨势。 与会者在议息会议上最终投票前提交的点阵图显示，1位官员认为今年全年应将利率维持在原来的4.25-4.5%不变，6位官员认为年内仅降息25个基点，2位官 员认为降息50个基点，9位官员认为降息75个基点，另有一位"大鸽派"认为年内要降息125个基点。市场均分析认为，这位"大鸽派"就是新上任的理事米兰。 点阵图一般根据中值来判断对年内降息次数的暗示。由此看来，点阵图暗示今 ...

来源：南篱论金 2025.09.17 周三 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 最开摆的时候，遇到了最配合的行情。 隔夜，这个黄金一度冲高到3703的新高，创出历史，然后，马不停蹄下跌至3674一带，当夜抹去三十个点的涨幅。还记得我说什么吗，对，这么 看看，我似乎有点当机构的潜力呢hhh （图：上一篇文章） 说当前，降25个基点是大概率事件，符合市场预期，预计会出现买预期卖事实的情况。后续点阵图和鲍威尔的讲话，需要观察偏好。若给出未来 几次利率路径偏向观察，即中立偏鹰，就是对黄金的大利空。反之，若是偏向连续降息，则金价稍微调整一下就可以继续上涨了。【50个基点发 生在去年的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会之后，这次不是没可能，但一旦出现，就得重新规划了，暂时不过多考虑】 划重点，由于黄金大方向上，看不见的时间周期上，利多的因素不少，地缘关税债务去美元化……所以我从没打算让大黄重回多么低。现在看 的，其实就是在主趋势上涨的过程中，出现的调整。 不管其他人的想法，在临近这个时间拐点的时候，伸伸手尝试一下未尝不可。调下来之后怎么办？当然是多单上车啊，你不喜欢常态的十月新旧 财年转换的上涨了吗。 算了，跟抬杠的说不清。总 ...