证券代码：600724 证券简称：宁波富达公告编号：2025-042 宁波富达股份有限公司 关于控股子公司所参股公司拟注销的 公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●本次注销事项不涉及关联交易，亦不构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》规定的重大资产重组， 无需提交公司股东会审议。 ●本次参股公司注销事项预计在2026年完成，依照《企业会计准则第2号一一长期股权投资》、《企业 会计准则第8号一一资产减值》等要求，公司基于本事项对该项长期股权投资计提减值准备，预计影响 公司2025年归母净利润约2,725万元至2,889万元（具体以审计结果为准），敬请广大投资者注意投资风 险。 2020年12月，宁波富达十届五次董事会会议审议通过了《关于子公司宁波科环新型建材股份有限公司与 浙江上峰建材有限公司共同投资新设公司合作迁建4500T/D水泥熟料生产线的议案》（详见上交所网站 本公司临2020-039号公告）。公司控股子公司科环公司与浙江上峰建材有限公司（以下简称"浙江上 峰"）双方按照地方规划调整等相关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in performance compared to non-ferrous metals, with non-ferrous metals benefiting more from manufacturing sectors like electrical machinery and telecommunications, while steel is more reliant on real estate and automotive industries [2]. - The average daily pig iron production has decreased, with a notable drop in steel output, particularly in rebar production [12][18]. - Total steel inventory has seen a significant reduction, with a week-on-week decline of 2.5% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened, with rebar demand declining more than hot-rolled coil demand [40]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by supply adjustments and market dynamics [50]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has decreased by 23,000 tons to 2.323 million tons, with a significant drop in steel output [12][18]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is at 87.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [18]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 2.5% week-on-week, with social inventory down 2.9% and steel mill inventory down 1.6% [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products is 8.642 million tons, down 2.7% week-on-week [51]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel is 99,000 tons, reflecting a 5.3% decrease [41]. Raw Materials - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $107.1 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [61]. - Australian iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, while Brazilian shipments have increased [61]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight improvement in the industry's profitability [75]. - The current cost of long-process rebar is 3,533 RMB per ton, with a loss of 233 RMB per ton [75][81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, with a reading of 48.2, falling short of market expectations and remaining in the contraction zone for the ninth consecutive month. This has implications for the US economy and various financial and commodity markets [12][16][20]. - The expectation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest - rate hike has increased, affecting market risk appetite, causing stocks and commodities to retreat after an initial rise, and keeping the short - term gold price within a volatile range [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, steel prices are oscillating stronger, copper prices are expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner, and PTA is in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, worse than expected and in contraction for nine consecutive months. The BOJ governor's hawkish remarks boosted the expectation of a December rate hike, causing stocks and commodities to fall back. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price trends are volatile, with increased fluctuations. Be aware of correction risks [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is closely monitoring the commercial real estate exposure of community and regional banks. The US factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in four months, with the manufacturing index dropping to 48.2 [15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to continue to decline in the short term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The BOJ governor signaled a clear interest - rate hike, leading to a rise in Japanese government bond yields and a squeeze on the profit margin of yen carry trades. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, indicating weak manufacturing performance [19][20]. - Investment advice: The market will experience increased short - term volatility, but maintain a generally bullish outlook [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The approval of public - offering fund products has started a counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. A - shares had a good start in December, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.31% [22][23]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market had a weak rebound, but there is no basis for continuous strengthening [25][26]. - Investment advice: There may be short - term repairs, but the market remains bearish [27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In November 2025, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.0175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.24%. The soybean meal inventory reached 1.2032 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The future weather and South American production expectations are important variables [28][29]. - Investment advice: Cost support and supply - demand constraints coexist. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile. Continue to monitor China's actual purchases of US soybeans, state reserve trends, and South American weather [29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in November increased by 4.78% year - on - year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market is in a recovery phase. Tangshan had illegal steel projects, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly in an oscillating manner, but the upside space is limited [30][31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, steel prices are expected to rise slightly and remain volatile [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 19.68% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Heavy rain affected the palm oil harvest, and the market expects November to continue to accumulate inventory [34][35]. - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to remain in the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan, waiting for data guidance [36]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the central - southern market remained stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the recovery is slow. The demand is weakening, with iron - water production continuing to decline [37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market will be mainly volatile [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on December 1, 2025, were 30 yuan/ton, - 43 yuan/ton, 97 yuan/ton, and - 6 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for corn starch has recovered, and the supply pressure is expected to remain low [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy for the rice - flour price difference [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 1, the domestic corn average price was 2,292 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is falling back. The 01 contract is not suitable for short - selling, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 03 contract [40][41]. - Investment advice: Do not short the 01 contract. Consider short - selling the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company signed an iron - ore purchase contract with Trafigura. The iron - ore price remains high and volatile, with the inventory expected to increase by 10 million tons to 160 million tons in December [42]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile, with limited upside potential [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - South Africa's coal exports in October were 7.2052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.18%. After the replenishment, the steam - coal price has fallen back, and it is expected to remain high and volatile in December - January [43]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high and volatile and decline seasonally from December to January [43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and trading limit for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. The polysilicon supply - demand contradiction has worsened, and the battery - sheet price has continued to fall [44][45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price may fall significantly, but the spot price is expected to remain flat. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A company plans to build 28 33MVA submerged - arc furnaces. The industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [47][49]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Look for range - trading opportunities [49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Minmetals Resources' Izok Corridor project exploration made progress, and a copper smelter in Kamoa - Kakula was ignited. The macro - level support may weaken, but the domestic inventory reduction boosts bullish sentiment [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner. Recommend buying on dips. Pay attention to the widening of the C - L spread [52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A 60,000 - ton power - battery recycling project in Yichang was launched. The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the demand in the off - season may weaken. The inventory reduction rate is expected to slow down in December [53][54]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rallies in the short term and buying on dips after the off - season risks are released [54]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the social lead inventory reached a one - month low. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented. The lead price is expected to rise, and consider buying on dips [55][56][57]. - Investment advice: Consider buying lead on dips in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and cross - border trades [57]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory increased. A zinc - lead mine in Bejaia is planned to start production. The zinc price is expected to be bullish, but there are risks of low market attention and macro - level fluctuations [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - border trades [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel project's production is normal in December. The refined nickel supply is expected to be in surplus, but the market is undervalued. Consider buying on dips [61][62]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips with a light position. Evaluate the impact of Indonesian resource contraction in the medium term [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin showed a premium. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. The overseas supply may be affected by geopolitical risks, and the downstream demand is weak [63]. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing the market [63]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and the cost is supported by geopolitical factors. Pay attention to the winter - storage policy [64][65]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term [66]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound - fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased to 37.06%. The urea futures price rebounded, and the inventory decreased. The demand is the key factor for the future price [66][67]. - Investment advice: The reduction of urea inventory strengthens the support for the futures price. Pay attention to the macro - level driving force after December [68]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure - benzene inventory in East China increased. The styrene and pure - benzene prices are oscillating. The demand is weak, but there are expectations of supply reduction. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans. Consider buying far - month contracts on dips if there is a panic sell - off in December [72]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the market negotiation was light. The supply decreased due to plant maintenance, and the demand remained stable. The year - end supply - demand is in a tight - balance state [73]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - term strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to the crude - oil price risk. Consider long positions in the PTA 5 - 9 spread and PTA - oil spread [74]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda price in Shandong decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The downstream alumina market has a negative impact on caustic - soda demand [75][76]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to whether profit compression will lead to supply reduction [76]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export prices increased. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [77][78]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash factory inventory decreased slightly. The Far Xing Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the supply. The demand from the float - glass industry has decreased [79][80]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [80]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei increased slightly. The futures price decreased, and the inventory is still high. The short - term rebound space is limited [81]. - Investment advice: Be cautious and wait - and - see. Adopt a bearish view in the medium term and consider shorting on rallies [81]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of a Spanish terminal by Hutchison Ports is blocked. The container freight rate is expected to be volatile, and there is a lack of strong bullish factors [82][83]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term [84].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the market showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations. The overall valuation of major companies has improved but remains rational [2][4]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is likely to see a slowdown in economic activity compared to the previous quarters, but the risk of a significant downturn is low. Measures such as the implementation of a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool are expected to support the economy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the steel industry, noting that administrative measures could accelerate the return of industry profits to average levels [2][4]. - The report identifies several companies as undervalued with strong safety margins, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.7 thousand tons to 236.2 thousand tons, while steel production has increased, with rebar production growing faster than hot-rolled products [12]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 88.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 3.0% week-on-week, with a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7% [24][26]. - The report notes that the inventory reduction is consistent across both social and mill inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9% [51]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 0.3% [40][41]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [48][60]. - The report indicates that the iron ore price index is currently at 104.8 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [60]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in steel prices, with the comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.5% week-on-week [74]. - The current profit margins for long-process steel products remain negative, with costs for rebar and hot-rolled products reported at 3,556 yuan/ton and 3,782 yuan/ton, respectively [74][80].

Group 1: Coal Production Capacity Increase - The National Development and Reform Commission approved the capacity replacement plan for Hongshuliang Coal Mine, allowing for an increase in production capacity from 5 million tons per year to 10 million tons per year [1] Group 2: Coal Price Trends - In early November, coal prices across various types showed significant increases, with anthracite coal rising by 5.0% to 949.5 CNY/ton, and mixed coal prices also experiencing notable gains [2][3][4][5][6] - Coking coal prices increased by 4.8% to 1623.3 CNY/ton, while coking prices rose by 4.1% to 1479.7 CNY/ton [7] Group 3: Indonesian Coal Reference Prices - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced adjustments to coal reference prices for the second half of November, with some high-calorific coal prices decreasing slightly [8][9][10] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Price Stability - The coking coal market showed signs of stabilization after several rounds of price increases, with some market participants expressing skepticism about further price hikes due to steel mill profit constraints [11] - The domestic coking coal market is experiencing a tight supply situation, but recent market sentiment has cooled, leading to some price adjustments [12][13][14] - The overall market for anthracite coal remains stable, with limited supply due to strict environmental checks and safety production measures [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8][9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 30%, ranking 7th among Shenwan's primary industries [2]. - The report highlights that the average daily pig iron production has increased to 236.9 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased [11]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.7%, indicating a tightening supply [23]. - Apparent steel consumption has shown a slight decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% [52]. - The report notes that iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil [49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,999.70 points, up 0.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.91 percentage points [1][94]. Supply Analysis - Daily pig iron production increased by 2.8 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased, particularly in rebar [11][17]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 steel mills is reported at 88.8%, reflecting a slight increase [17]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 1,061.4 million tons, down 1.3% week-on-week [25]. - Steel mill inventories also saw a decline, with a 2.9% reduction [25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, with rebar demand dropping more significantly [40][52]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel was 100 thousand tons, reflecting a 3.9% increase [41]. Price and Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising to 121.2, up 0.1% week-on-week [75]. - Current costs for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are reported at 3,518 yuan/ton and 3,744 yuan/ton, respectively, with negative margins [75][76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel mills' profitability has continued to decline, falling below 40% this week. Pig iron production has slightly decreased due to the decline in steel mills' profitability and is expected to continue this downward trend. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline, and the inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally. Ferroalloys also have high inventory levels, facing significant pressure to reduce inventory. After the macro - sentiment settles, ferroalloys will return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but the price will be supported by the cost side. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.8% [3]. - **Silicon manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.4% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a decline in ferroalloy prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to sell SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 15%. The suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 and SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25%. The suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300 and SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Contradiction between high inventory and weak demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. Downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and ferroalloy inventory is at a high level. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese enterprise inventories are at their highest levels in the past 5 years. Silicon manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 1.5% month - on - month, and silicon iron enterprise inventory has increased by 9.3% month - on - month, facing significant inventory pressure [4]. - **Challenge of cost support**: Recently, the correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices has been gradually weakening. The increase in coking coal prices has not driven up ferroalloy prices [4]. - **Contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality**: The anti - involution tone remains, and the market still has some enthusiasm. There are still certain expectations for supply - side contraction, but the high inventory of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand remain unchanged. The market's long - and short - term logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is a high risk of a price increase followed by a decline due to the lack of substantial action [4]. 3.4利多 and 利空解读 - **Positive factors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which mentions that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should be no less than 1.5:1. The fourth round of price increases for coke has started. In October, China exported 828,000 vehicles, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. In October, China exported 443 ships, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 5660 ships, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% [6]. - **Negative factors**: The steel market is in the peak season but with weak performance. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. Pig iron production has continued to decline. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. The consumption side lacks driving force, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [6]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Silicon iron**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 26, with a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 56. The warehouse receipts were 7197, with a daily increase of 1498 and a weekly increase of 2688 [6]. - **Silicon manganese**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 28. The warehouse receipts were 16357, with a daily increase of 1999 and a weekly increase of 6337 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies [7]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently experiencing a recovery from undervaluation, with significant potential for price and profit improvement as supply-side policies are implemented [2]. - The report highlights that the average daily pig iron production has decreased, while inventory reduction has slowed down, indicating a tightening supply [3][26]. - Demand for steel products has shown a decline in apparent consumption, particularly in rebar and hot-rolled coil, reflecting a temporary market adjustment [43]. - The report emphasizes the continued high growth rate of steel exports, with a net export increase of 7.6% year-on-year, suggesting robust international demand [4][14]. - The report identifies key companies that are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [2][10]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has decreased by 21,000 tons to 2.342 million tons, with a reduction in production from long-process steelmaking [13]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 domestic steel mills is at 87.8%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous week [19]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has seen a reduced decline, with a week-on-week drop of 0.7%, indicating a tighter market [26]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 10.75 million tons, down 0.2% week-on-week but up 29.8% year-on-year [28]. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 5.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 5.9% [54]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has fallen to 96,000 tons, a decrease of 7.6% [44]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have declined, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $102.1 per ton, down 5.0% week-on-week [64]. - The report notes an increase in port iron ore inventory, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [53]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has decreased by 1.1% week-on-week, with current rebar prices in Beijing at 3,190 RMB per ton [76]. - The report indicates that the immediate gross profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coil remain relatively stable despite price fluctuations [76].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Black Variety Strategy Recommendations RB2601 - Latest Price: 3034 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Strongly - Dominant Factors: New environmental protection and production restriction draft released, steel mills' production reduction rhythm accelerating, large demand decline, slowdown in social inventory destocking, iron ore price decline, continued strength of coking coal prices, favorable industrial policies, positive macro - economic expectations, temporary suspension of trade war disturbances, and medium - long - term anti - involution [6] HC2601 - Latest Price: 3245 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Decline in both production and apparent demand of five major steel products, continuous decline in daily average hot metal output for 6 weeks with an enlarged decline recently, continuous narrowing of steel mills' profits suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand, and steel mills maintaining on - demand restocking [6] I2601 - Latest Price: 760.5 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Similar to HC2601 [6] Group 3: Unilateral Logic Basis RB2601 and HC2601 - Message: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter requirements on replacement ratios than the 2021 version. Also, it proposed restrictions on capacity replacement between different enterprises in the future [7] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' production reduction rhythm is accelerating, but due to large demand decline, social inventory destocking slows down. Iron ore prices have fallen since late October, while coking coal prices remain strong, and steel costs are still resilient. Steel futures are expected to have limited downside space, and may rebound in mid - to - late November [7][8] I2601 - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and arrivals have rebounded after two weeks of low levels. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high, and the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea in November may suppress far - month contracts. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output has continuously declined, and steel production and demand have decreased. Steel mills are restocking on - demand, and port inventory is accumulating [9] Group 4: Steel Analysis Fundamentals - Price: Some prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined in the week of November 7 [11] - Production: Blast furnace capacity utilization rate and crude steel output of key enterprises, daily average hot metal output, and production of five major steel products all decreased. Steel mills' inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [12][15] - Inventory: Rebar social inventory in 35 cities decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, while hot - rolled coil social inventory in 33 cities increased [18] - Demand: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and shipbuilding production increased year - on - year [18] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and rebar contract's disk profit showed an expanding loss [21] - Spot Gross Margin: Spot gross margin of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar showed expanding losses [25] Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Downside space is limited. Consider buying hedging or investment in large basis intervals, or arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to spot market resilience and production data [25][28] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate between 120 - 180 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate between 0 - 40 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Fundamentals - Price and Spread: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder price decreased. Spreads between some high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder changed [32] - Inventory and Ship - unloading Volume: 45 - port iron ore inventory accumulated rapidly, daily average ship - unloading volume increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventory available days remained at 21 days [35] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and arrivals increased. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high [39] - Domestic Production and Capacity Utilization: Domestic iron ore production decreased year - on - year, and domestic mine capacity utilization rate decreased [47] - Port Trading Volume and Hot Metal Cost: Port trading volume increased, and the average hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [49] - Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation: Daily average hot metal output decreased, blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased, and blast furnace operation rate increased. Steel enterprises' profitability decreased [52] - Steel Production and Inventory: Production and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and total inventory decreased [54] - Transportation Cost: Major iron ore freight prices increased, and BDI and BCI indices rose [59] Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Supply has an increasing expectation, demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. Consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [64][65] - Basis: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot price and iron ore futures 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [65]

Group 1: Market Trends - In October, rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed a trend of initially declining and then rebounding, driven by high inventory and weak demand in the first half, followed by macroeconomic improvements and inventory destocking in the latter half [1] - Looking ahead to November, demand may weaken marginally due to seasonal factors, but the extent is expected to be limited, with five major steel products likely to continue destocking [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the capacity replacement implementation measures, tightening the replacement ratio requirements, indicating that steel production capacity will face strict constraints in the medium to long term [2] - Daily molten iron output decreased from 2.4181 million tons at the beginning of October to 2.3636 million tons by the end of the month, with expectations of further declines in November due to demand expectations and profit conditions [2] Group 3: Export Performance - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative steel exports reached 98.6964 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, with September exports at 11.9593 million tons [3] - The export willingness of steel mills has increased due to a lack of significant domestic demand growth, and it is expected that direct steel exports will remain at a high level in November and December [3] Group 4: Domestic Demand - Overall domestic demand remains stable, with real estate demand for steel continuing to be weak, but infrastructure steel demand may see some recovery towards the end of the year [4] - Manufacturing investment showed a year-on-year growth of 4% from January to September 2025, indicating resilience in the sector [4] Group 5: Inventory Dynamics - Steel prices rebounded in July and August due to policy support, leading to high inventory levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils, but inventory destocking has been slow in September and October [5] - The last two weeks of October saw a resumption of destocking for rebar, suggesting that inventory pressure may gradually ease in November [5] Group 6: Raw Material Support - Raw material prices are expected to remain strong in November, driven by downstream restocking expectations, with low coal and coke inventories and slow recovery in domestic supply [6] - Iron ore prices are supported by a high basis and global pricing dynamics, benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts and macroeconomic improvements [6] Group 7: Price Outlook - Short-term steel prices are expected to continue adjusting due to concerns over inventory and demand, but with rising exports, domestic policy expectations, and strong cost support, the downside for rebar and hot-rolled coil prices is limited, with a rebound anticipated in November [8]