（原标题：债券不香了 居民"钱袋子" 加速流向权益市场） 21世纪经济报道记者 余纪昕、实习生王罕 8月股债赛道加速轮动，不少理财投资者感到"有些迷茫"。低利率背景下，以往作为安心之选、习惯性放在银行的存款和大额存单，现在看来略显 鸡肋，低波动资产的收益率薄得不够看了。 再叠加去年全年大债牛行情对收益率下行空间的透支，曾被视作"稳稳的幸福"、"持有即赚钱"的债券理财产品，如今顺风局也已过；包括现金类 和债券类在内的固收类理财产品，现今正黯然失色。 资料来源：Wind，21世纪经济报道梳理 几家欢喜几家愁。与权益基金的火热形成鲜明对比，债券基金今年以来交出的"成绩单"大不如前。投资者不难发现，现下债基收益普遍变薄，甚 至个别产品已然出现负收益，让去年安心持有的客户也"尝到了亏钱的滋味"。据Wind数据，截至8月21日发稿，全市场3325只中长期纯债基金今 年以来平均总回报仅为0.45%，这个水平较去年同期的2.44%大幅下滑了1.99个百分点，收益缩水明显。 值得关注是，最近一周债基平均回报为-0.20%，相比去年同期的-0.03%下降0.17个百分点，短期表现同样不尽如人意，债基管理者和投资者今年 面临的收益 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 赎回潮叙事中的机构行为图鉴 ——央行报表及债券托管量观察 ❖ 2025 年 7 月，中债登和上清所债券托管总量为 173 万亿，同比增速上行 0.1pct 至 15.8%的水平，环比增量从 2025 年 6 月的 1.3 万亿上行至 1.7 万亿。 ❖ 一、7 月央行资产负债表和托管量解读？ 1、7 月央行资产负债表：规模上行至 45.9 万亿元。（1）从资产端来看，央行 "对其他存款性公司债权"与公开投放规模差异不大，流动性呵护相对积极， 开年以来 PSL 余额快速减少，关注新型政策性金融工具启用；持仓短国债陆 续到期，"对中央政府债权"科目延续缩量。（2）从负债端来看，缴税大月叠 加供给放量，政府存款增量上行至季节性高位，由于银行体系资金流向财政存 款，央行"其他存款性公司存款"季节性回落。 2、7 月央行托管量：买断式逆回购净投放规模维持在 2000 亿，前期国债买入 操作到期 647 亿元，央行创新工具净投放规模合计为 1353 亿元，中债-其他科 目单月增量为 1641 亿，两者较为接近。 ❖ 二、杠杆率：跨季后资金面转松，机构杠杆季节性回落 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which are critical signals for the future direction of the capital market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, especially in medium to long-term bonds [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures experienced a notable drop of 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, with closing prices hitting new lows since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in bond prices and the simultaneous rise in yields indicate a weakening demand for bonds, suggesting that the attractiveness of bonds is diminishing [12][13]. - The article discusses the traditional inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, where a strong stock market typically correlates with a weak bond market [15][16]. - However, the article argues that the current weakness in the bond market is not solely due to this stock-bond dynamic, as both short-term and long-term bonds are experiencing price and yield changes [19][24]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The shift from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted as a key factor influencing the bond market's performance [31][32]. - Recent economic indicators, such as rising CPI and increasing commodity prices, suggest a warming inflation outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that external factors, including increased foreign investment and potential policy changes, are contributing to a positive shift in market expectations [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the capital market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is anticipated, with trading dynamics shifting towards inflation-driven strategies [48][49]. - The current market conditions indicate that the bond market may continue to weaken while the stock market remains strong, suggesting a new normal for capital market behavior [50].

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/19 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/18 | 4.334 | 4.737 | 3.447 | 2.762 | 3.555 | 3.327 | 0.282 | 3.403 | 最新变化 | 0.015 | 0.041 | -0.020 | -0.025 | -0.033 | -0.023 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行8月15日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2380亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2380亿元，中标量2380亿元。Wind数据显示，当日 1220亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1160亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 税期时点，银行间市场资金面上周五早盘进一步收敛，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率升破1.4%关口，不过午后供给转暖。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔 夜报价下午在1.40%附近有较为稳定的供给；非银机构质押存单和信用债融入隔夜，报价整体升至1.45%上方。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.33%。 6. 国债期货收盘多数下跌 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在1.6425%附近。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行 | | 1Y | 2Y | ЗУ | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

摘要 ●今年以来，债券市场呈现一定波动性。表征境内债券市场的中债-新综合指数年初至今上涨0.97%。利率债中，短期限国开行债券指数表现优于中长期限 国开行债券指数。在低利率环境下，市场寻找风险收益过程中，今年以来的信用利差有所收窄，信用债指数整体表现优于利率债。宽基信用债指数中，剔 除尾部风险的中债-中高等级信用债综合指数的年初至今回报最高。以中债-信用债价值因子精选策略指数、中债-中高等级公司债利差因子指数为代表的策 略指数，在信用债涨幅基础上进一步增厚收益。 ●7月，境内人民币债券市场整体财富指数回报有所回落。中债-新综合指数的净价指数和财富指数回报分别为-0.30%和-0.08%。 ●国债收益率整体略有上行。国债期限利差和国开债与国债间的利差本月有所波动。在此环境下，反映人民币利率债市场总体走势的中债-总指数财富指数 下跌0.17%，短期限国债指数的回报表现略强。中债-投资优选政策性金融债指数整体表现优于中债-投资优选国债指数。 ●信用债收益率有所波动，得益于票息收益，信用债市场整体财富指数回报为正。中债-信用债总指数财富指数上涨0.10%。各高等级信用债利差均有所收 窄。以信用债期限较为集中的3年期为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant inflow into bond ETFs, with a net inflow of 300.3 billion yuan year-to-date, and a total scale surpassing 536.34 billion yuan as of August 14 [1][3] - The bond ETF market has seen a notable increase in new products, with 18 new bond ETFs established this year, including 8 benchmark credit bond ETFs and 10 Sci-Tech Innovation bond ETFs launched in July [3] - The growth of bond ETFs is attributed to the increasing demand from long-term funds such as pensions and annuities, as well as the advantages of ETF products in terms of fee structure and transparency [3] Group 2 - Hai Fu Tong Fund has six bond ETFs, three of which exceed 10 billion yuan in scale, contributing to the firm becoming a trillion-level non-cash ETF manager [3] - As of August 13, the total scale of non-cash ETFs managed by Hai Fu Tong Fund reached 110.91 billion yuan, with bond ETFs accounting for 107.10 billion yuan, representing 96.56% of the total [3] - The largest convertible bond ETF in the market, the Bosera Convertible Bond ETF, has grown to a scale of 50.86 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuation of weak economic conditions, with a notable decline in new RMB loans in July 2025, amounting to -0.05 billion compared to 2.24 billion in June 2025. New social financing (社融) was 1.16 billion, down from 4.20 billion in June 2025, while the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 9%, slightly up from 8.9% in June 2025 [3][4][5]. Group 1: Social Financing and Government Debt - Government debt continues to support the growth of social financing in July, with net financing reaching 1.25 billion, although this is a decrease from 1.41 billion in June. This high level of government debt financing has effectively supported social financing growth despite weak credit demand from the real economy [3][5]. - The report indicates that corporate short-term loans were low, while bill financing saw significant growth. This is attributed to a rapid decline in bill rates, which created a substitution effect with short-term loans, and effective measures to clear overdue accounts [3][4][5]. Group 2: Household and Corporate Credit Demand - Both household and corporate credit demand in July were below seasonal levels, reflecting low consumer willingness to spend and weak housing demand. The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and childcare allowances may stimulate future household consumption, but improvements in housing demand remain uncertain due to inventory and pricing factors [3][4][5]. - The report notes that new non-bank deposits increased to a seasonal high in July, indicating a trend of residents moving deposits to equity markets, influenced by favorable performance in the equity market and a seasonal decline in wealth management products [3][4][5]. Group 3: Monetary Indicators - M1 and M2 growth rates both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, suggesting a marginal improvement in economic activity. The increase in M1 is attributed to several factors, including a low base effect from previous financial data adjustments and significant net fiscal spending [3][4][5]. - The report also mentions that the bond market's pricing of fundamentals and liquidity has weakened, with a flattening yield curve reflecting pessimistic expectations for the economy. The bond market has shown weakness following the release of financial data, indicating a potential shift of funds from bonds to equities [3][4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the bond market may face pressure in August, coinciding with a peak in government debt supply. The coordination of monetary policy with fiscal liquidity may be challenging, and if bond market adjustments intensify, there is a possibility that the central bank may restart bond purchases [3][4][5]. - The report concludes that the third and fourth quarters may present risk windows, as a decline in government debt supply could reduce liquidity support, while inflation risks may rise [3][4][5].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 118.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on August 13, with a total bid amount of 118.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 118.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains in a comfortable state, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly rising and hovering around 1.31% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remain abundant at around 1.3% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.34% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, remaining stable compared to the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a slight increase: 30-year main contract up 0.10%, 10-year up 0.02%, 5-year up 0.05%, and 2-year up 0.03% [13] Group 5: Credit Data - As of the end of July, the broad money (M2) balance in China is 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%; the narrow money (M1) balance is 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) is 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% [13] - In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan, with RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan and RMB deposits by 18.44 trillion yuan [13] - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first seven months is 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13] Group 6: Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance indicated that after the expiration of two loan interest subsidy policies, an evaluation will be conducted to consider extending the policy duration or expanding the support scope [14] - The financial director emphasized that personal consumption loan subsidies are intended for reasonable borrowing needs and genuine consumption behavior [14] Group 7: Global Macro Events - The US White House announced more details about the upcoming "Trump-Putin" meeting, which will be held in a one-on-one format [16] - Japan's chief negotiator stated that if Trump issues an executive order regarding the US-Japan trade agreement by mid-September, the situation would be favorable [16]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 13 日 如何理解个人消费贷款贴息政策？ ——债市策略思考 ❑ 债市做多窗口或进一步后移 贴息政策通过"财政补位+结构性降息"组合，显著压缩了央行年内货币政策总量 宽松空间，年内降息概率进一步下降，考虑个人贷款贴息政策将持续至 2026 年 8 月 31 日，预计下一次降息窗口将后移至 2026 年一季度，年内不排除有"防御式 降息"可能。需求端政策或使得通胀预期得以延续，权益市场走势强劲短期或对 债市形成持续性压制，做多窗口或进一步后移，曲线陡峭化概率提升。 ❑ 风险提示 技术分析具有一定局限性；宏观经济政策出现超预期边际变化；机构行为大幅趋 同并形成负反馈。 分析师：覃汉 核心观点 年内降息概率下降，需求端政策或使得通胀预期得以延续，对债市形成持续性压制， 债市做多窗口或进一步后移。 ❑ 年内降息概率进一步下降 年内降息概率或在"财政替代货币、结构替代总量、预期管理"三重效应下进一 步下降。首先，财政贴息≈定向降息，央行总量工具必要性下降；其次，结构性 政策或抑制"全面降息"空间，更有利于防止资金空转；最 ...