Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown is influencing mortgage rates, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, despite various market factors at play [1][4]. Impact of Government Shutdown on Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in tandem with mortgage rates, has been declining, suggesting that mortgage rates may also decrease [1]. - Mortgage rates have been falling since July but have recently seen slight increases due to aggressive lender actions rather than market movements [2]. - A government shutdown can lead to a drop in mortgage rates by approximately 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points, depending on the situation [4]. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The shutdown may limit access to key economic data, which could shape investor sentiment and further influence mortgage rates [3]. - The ADP report indicating 32,000 job losses in September raises concerns about a weakening job market, especially with the absence of BLS job market numbers due to the shutdown [6]. - The bond market is currently fluctuating between concerns over the job market and inflation, both of which impact mortgage rates in different directions [8]. Predictions and Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that mortgage rates may continue to drift downward after the government shutdown, although various factors could affect this trend [7]. - The housing market is already under pressure from high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, and the uncertainty introduced by the shutdown may further discourage prospective buyers [7][8].

国金证券基金投顾团队表示，节前资金避险需求上升，债券迎来修复行情。近几个交易日市场情绪出现积极转向。前期的利率上行已消化了部分短期利空， 叠加政策面的支持，后续市场利率的上行空间仍将受到显著约束。 新华财经上海9月30日电（张天源） 三季度最后一个交易日，受央行提前呵护资金面等因素影响，债券市场整体走暖，现券期货均表现出色。展望四季度， 部分业内人士认为，今年市场多空主线交织较往年更加复杂，投资者仍需保持谨慎。 数据显示，到收盘，国债期货全线收涨，30年期国债主连涨0.10%报113.90，10年期国债主连涨0.17%，5年期国债主连涨0.11%，2年期国债主连涨0.04%。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，10年期国债主力活跃券"25附息国债11"下行1.75个基点报1.79%，5年期国债"25附息国债14"下行2.5个基点报1.60%。 | | 1Y | 2Y | | 3Y | 5Y 7Y | | 10Y | 超长债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.3500 | 1.5000 1.6000 | | 1.5 ...

第471 期 2025-09-30 焦点关注 央行发布8月份金融市场运行情况 9月30日，央行发布2025年8月份金融市场运行情况。8月份，债券市场共发行各类债券74281.4亿元。国 债发行13277.6亿元，地方政府债券发行9776.4亿元，金融债券发行11550.3亿元，公司信用类债券1发行 12391.4亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行212.2亿元，同业存单发行26956.5亿元。 证监会拟重奖吹哨人！举报证券期货违法行为奖金封顶100万元 中国证监会、财政部发布《证券期货违法行为吹哨人奖励工作规定（征求意见稿）》。征求意见稿完善 了奖励条件。其中提到，严重破坏证券期货市场秩序，严重危害金融安全，严重侵害投资者合法权益的 重大案件纳入奖励案件范围。可奖励案件条件从罚没款金额10万元提升为100万元。同时，较大幅度提 高奖励标准提高奖金比例，奖励金额由案件罚没款金额1%提升为3%。 交易商协会：对天津滨海农商行、广汇汽车等5家机构予以警告 中国银行间交易商协会发布自律处分信息，涉及上海钉铃、天津滨海农商行、广汇汽车、桑德环境、南 通三建等五家主体。 宏观动态 国家发展改革委下达今年第四批690亿元超长期特别 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may break through its downward space in the fourth quarter. After experiencing multiple "stress tests" in the third quarter, the bond market has shown strong resilience. With the improvement of the bond market's adaptability to the strengthening of the equity market and the decline of the excessive trading of long - term bonds, a more rational pricing logic may dominate the market again, and the stable allocation demand will become the "ballast stone" for the interest rate to decline. The interest rate is expected to be in a "moderate" downward state [8][46]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the Bond Market Break Through the Sideways Trend in the Fourth Quarter? 3.1.1 The Bond Market Fluctuated Widely in September, with Bulls and Bears in a Fierce Battle and a Wavy Uptrend - The valuation yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has basically completed the anchoring to the "new bond". The spread between the new bond (250016) and the old bond (250011) is basically stable at 5 - 8BP, and the yield - to - maturity compensation due to value - added tax is about 2.8% - 4.5% [1][11]. - The capital interest rate fluctuated significantly due to the cross - quarter effect, and the central level increased to some extent. The increase in the central level of the capital interest rate led to an upward trend in the bond market interest rate and a compression of the Carry space, resulting in bond market selling pressure [1][14]. - The bond cashing demand of the bank's OCI account is one of the factors pressuring the bond market. From September 1st to 26th, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were the main sellers in the bond market [2][18]. - Regulatory policy adjustments and the increasing expectation of restarting treasury bond trading also drove the bond market trend. The "new rule" led to a rapid correction in the bond market in early September, while the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading supported the rebound in mid - September [2][21]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market May Break Through the Downward Space in the Fourth Quarter - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds weakened in September. If the equity market turns into a slow - bull pattern in the fourth quarter, the suppression on the bond market from the equity market may ease [3][23]. - The price level is still in the repair stage, with PPI bottoming out and rising, but CPI has not shown signs of recovery. If the economic recovery slope is lower than expected or Sino - US economic and trade relations deteriorate unexpectedly, there is still a possibility of another interest rate cut this year [5][28]. - From the supply side, the fourth quarter is usually the "off - season" for government bond supply, but attention should be paid to the possible advance issuance of the special bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2026. Even if the supply pressure increases, the impact on the market may be relatively controllable, and the central bank may use open - market operations for hedging [6][33]. - From the demand side, even if the "new rule" is implemented in the fourth quarter, its impact on the bond market is likely to be short - term and frictional, not a trend - based decline in demand. The demand from core bond - market allocators such as wealth management and insurance remains strong [7][40]. 3.2 Important Matters - The net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan in September. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a maturity scale of 300 billion yuan in September [48]. 3.3 Money Market 3.3.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From September 22nd to 26th, the central bank injected a total of 2.4674 trillion yuan through reverse repurchase operations, with a maturity of 1.8268 trillion yuan, and the net injection was 640.6 billion yuan. It is expected that 516.6 billion yuan of base money will be recalled from September 29th to 30th [50]. - The inter - bank liquidity was tight first and then loose last week, mainly due to the central bank's protection of liquidity. As of September 26th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 16.49BP, 3.78BP, - 14.62BP, and 2.17BP respectively compared with September 19th [54]. 3.3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit showed a net outflow, with a net financing scale of - 188.79 billion yuan last week. The issuing scale of state - owned banks was the largest, but they also had the largest net outflow [59][63]. - The issuing interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit at all maturities showed an upward trend [64][67]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds was relatively small last week. The total actual issuance was 60.834 billion yuan, with a maturity of 9.2 billion yuan and a net financing of 51.634 billion yuan [68]. - In the secondary market, the bond market sentiment was relatively weak last week, showing an upward trend in the shock, and the curve shape became steeper. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year CDB bond active bonds decreased, and the liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased [68][77]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally in August but was at a seasonal low year - on - year. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased last week, with an average of about 7.27 trillion yuan [94][99]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years and 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks continued to sell but with a reduced intensity; insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds sold significantly [104]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.85% [107]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures decreased, while those of cathode copper, cement, and glass increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased [117]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased, and the vegetable wholesale price increased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased [117]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.12 last week [117].

2025年中国 私募基金白皮书 www.frostchina.com 版权所有 ©2025弗若斯特沙利文 中国私募基金白皮书｜2025/08 中国私募基金系列 报告摘要 ◼ 中国证券投资基础市场概况 上半年股票市场概况：2025年上半年，受地缘冲突、美国关税政策等风险的影响，全球股市仍走出了整 体上涨的行情。A股上半年整体呈现"N型"走势，港股与A股走势类似但更为强劲，美股则经历了"V型 反转"。 上半年债券市场概况：2025年上半年，全市场债券发行数量24,267只，发行金额为44.6万亿元。其中， 利率债发行达到16.9万亿元。从不同发行期限来看，短期与中短期债券发行量占据主要市场份额。 上半年期货市场概况：2025年上半年，全国期货市场累计成交量40.76亿手，累计成交额339.73万亿元， 分别同比增长17.82%和20.68%。从行业看，贵金属板块成交额第一，达59.57万亿元，同比增长66.05%。 ◼ 中国私募证券投资基金行业发展现状 私募证券投资基金管理人发展情况：中国私募证券投资基金管理人登记通过数量近年来呈现大幅下降趋 势，数量由2017年的1,605家减少至2024年的49家，登记通过数 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，9月25日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4835亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4835亿元，中标量4835亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日4870亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼35亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行周四增量续做MLF，不过银行间市场流动性改善有限，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率仍上行近4bp报在1.47%附近，可跨月末和十一长假的七天和14 天期回购利率延续上行；匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价围绕在DR001水平附近，供给较上日增加，约数百亿。非银机构以信用债为抵押融入隔 夜，报价从盘初的1.6%左右回落至1.53%-1.55%，七天、14天和21天期报价集中在1.9%附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.12%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 涨跌不一 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （*数据来源： ...

【固收】 墨西哥债市全览：拉美地区成熟且结构完善的债券市场 墨西哥宏观经济与债务环境演变： 债务高速扩张酿成危机，后改革逐步改善债务结构与管理。20世纪70年代，墨西哥依靠石油出口和外资流入实现经济快速 扩张，债务规模激增，外债占比超过60%。随着石油危机和美国利率飙升，墨西哥于1982年爆发债务危机。进入21世纪后，墨政府通过稳健财政和结构性改 革逐步化解历史债务风险，债务结构趋于合理。截至2025年，墨西哥政府债券总额达14.5万亿比索，其中固定利率债和通胀挂钩债占比提升，反映出政府倾 向于长期、低利率融资和对冲通胀的战略安排。当前经济增速温和，外部融资需求持续，墨西哥央行降息减轻债务负担，整体债务可持续性有所改善。 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最成熟和国际化程度较高的固定收益市场之一。 央行独立实施货币政策，依托丰沛外汇储备与稳健资产负债表，在近年通胀波动 背景下灵活调整利率，维护金融稳定。墨西哥采纳灵活汇率制度，汇率自由浮动，具备作为外部冲击缓冲器的功能，且外汇管制程度较低。债券发行、交易、 结算等基础设施完善，集中交易平台（BMV）和场外市场互补，结算系统高度电子化、标准化。法治环境与国际规范接轨，债务 ...

第 467 期 2025-09-24 焦点关注 长债利率再上台阶，30年期国债逼近2.12% 9月24日，债市延续昨日跌势，长债利率再上台阶。 盘初情绪小幅修复，央行投放收敛，7天期资金开启跨季行情，资金情绪明显趋紧，10年期国债早盘 1.8%附近震荡。 午后随着权益大幅拉升走强，长债收益率陡峭化上行，10年期国债升破1.81%，部分10年期国开非活跃 券已触及2.0%点位，50年期活跃券触及2.29%，超长端非活跃券表现更弱，30年期特别国债2500006日 内上行超3BP升至2.25%上方。 尾盘债市再度异动下跌，10年期国债一举攻破1.82%，30年期新高逼近2.12%。 宏观动态 连续七个月加量续作！央行将开展6000亿元MLF 9月24日，中国人民银行公告，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期 借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴于9月有3000亿元MLF到期，本月央行MLF净投放将达到 3000亿元，为央行连续第七个月对MLF加量续作。 9月以来，央行两度开展公开市场买断式逆回购操作，累计净投放3000亿元。综合来看，MLF与买断式 逆回购两项政策工具在9月合计 ...

报告导读： 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最为成熟的市场之一，央行实施独立货币政策，汇 率自由浮动，外汇管制程度较低。 墨西哥宏观经济与债务环境演变：债务高速扩张酿成危机，后改革逐步改善债务结构与管理。 20世纪70年代，墨西哥依靠石油出口和外资流入实现经济快速 扩张，债务规模激增，外债占比超过60%。随着石油危机和美国利率飙升，墨西哥于1982年爆发债务危机。进入21世纪后，墨政府通过稳健财政和结构性改 革逐步化解历史债务风险，债务结构趋于合理。截至2025年，墨西哥政府债券总额达14.5万亿比索，其中固定利率债和通胀挂钩债占比提升，反映出政府倾 向于长期、低利率融资和对冲通胀的战略安排。当前经济增速温和，外部融资需求持续，墨西哥央行降息减轻债务负担，整体债务可持续性有所改善。 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最成熟和国际化程度较高的固定收益市场之一。央行独立实施货币政策，依托丰沛外汇储备与稳健资产负债表，在近年通胀波动背 景下灵活调整利率，维护金融稳定。墨西哥采纳灵活汇率制度，汇率自由浮动，具备作为外部冲击缓冲器的功能，且外汇管制程度较低。 债券发行、交易、 结算等基础设施完善，集中交易平台（BMV）和场外市场互补，结 ...