01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 | 美 | 国 | 非 | 农 | 就 | 人 | 增 | 长 | 人 | 期 | 的 | 倍 | 多 | 非 | 农 | 就 | 人 | 数 | 合 | 修 | 人 | 月 | 业 | 是 | 预 | 两 | 但 | 月 | 和 | 月 | 业 | 计 | 月 | ） | 万 | 下 | 万 | （ | 1 | 9 | 口 | 1 | 1. | 9 | 7 | 8 | 3. | 3 | 9 | ， | ， | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

智通财经APP获悉，光伏股尾盘跌幅扩大，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌3.31%，报7.88港元；福莱特 玻璃(06865)跌2.81%，报11.43港元；福耀玻璃(03606)跌2.64%，报66.5港元；信义光能(00968)跌 1.43%，报3.45港元。 招商期货发布研报称，11月硅片、电池片排产环比十月分别下滑 4.9%、1.0%。 9 月光伏新增装机 9.66GW，同比-53.8%，环比-31.25%。"136 号文"机制电价政策在各省密集出台，预计国内第四季度光 伏装机增长承压。 此外，通威刘汉元近期表示，硅料收储不会触及反垄断。南华期货发布研报称，多晶硅方面，当前市场 短期交易主线围绕"11月收储平台成立与否"展开，后续将逐步切换至"11月仓单集中注销"的预期博弈， 同时需警惕政策或节点真空期内各类不实信息对市场情绪的扰动。 ...

此外，通威刘汉元近期表示，硅料收储不会触及反垄断。南华期货（603093）发布研报称，多晶硅方 面，当前市场短期交易主线围绕"11月收储平台成立与否"展开，后续将逐步切换至"11月仓单集中注 销"的预期博弈，同时需警惕政策或节点真空期内各类不实信息对市场情绪的扰动。 招商期货发布研报称，11月硅片、电池片排产环比十月分别下滑 4.9%、1.0%。 9 月光伏新增装机 9.66GW，同比-53.8%，环比-31.25%。"136 号文"机制电价政策在各省密集出台，预计国内第四季度光 伏装机增长承压。 光伏股尾盘跌幅扩大，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌3.31%，报7.88港元；福莱特（601865）玻璃 (06865)跌2.81%，报11.43港元；福耀玻璃（600660）(03606)跌2.64%，报66.5港元；信义光能(00968)跌 1.43%，报3.45港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation in the industrial silicon market remains weak, and the silicon price is under pressure. For polysilicon, the downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.57% to 9,390 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: The southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and the overall production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The north has a slight increase in furnace operation [1] - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises are reducing production, and the demand for industrial silicon may decline. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices is limited [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The current supply - demand situation remains weak, and there is pressure on the silicon price. The trading strategy is to operate within a range, and pay attention to the registration of new warehouse receipts [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.63% to 54,625 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but with new capacity coming on stream, the output in October may increase slightly, and it is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons in November [1] - **Demand Situation**: The polysilicon market is trading lightly, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising. The trading strategy is to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, and pay attention to protecting profits for existing long positions [1] Industry News - Yunnan Energy Investment won the bid for the Dazhushan Wind Farm Project in Huize County, Yunnan, with an expected installed capacity of 25,000 kilowatts [1] - Germany's new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 1,145 megawatts. The installed capacity of ground - mounted photovoltaic systems exceeded that of rooftop systems in October, while the opposite was true in September. The demand for rooftop systems continued to decline [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.378 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, down 71.59% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.341 billion yuan, a decline of 48.54% year-on-year and 45.88% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -36 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 118.58% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 176.45% [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.4%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the expense ratio rose to 18.7%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points, primarily due to the decline in revenue. The total expenses for Q3 were 250 million yuan, showing a growth compared to the previous quarter [11]. - The company experienced asset impairment reversals of 90 million yuan and credit impairment losses of 100 million yuan in Q3, which had a limited impact on profits [11]. Future Outlook - The second phase of the Jeddah factory in Saudi Arabia was completed in October, with an annual delivery capacity of 15 GW, enhancing the company's position in the Middle East market. The company has resumed cooperation with India's Adani, which is expected to contribute to order growth in the Indian market. As of the end of Q3, the company had an order backlog of 7.2 billion yuan, including 6.01 billion yuan in tracking systems and 1.11 billion yuan in fixed structures. The resolution of project delivery delays is anticipated to restore revenue and profit [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.641 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.29%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 239 million yuan, a decrease of 43.24% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue reached 4.206 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.2%. The net profit for Q3 was 58 million yuan, down 52.21% year-on-year and down 35.89% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 114 million yuan, up 11.60% year-on-year and up 69.13% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. Financial Performance - The company’s financial performance indicates a significant increase in revenue for Q3 2025, with a total of 4.206 billion yuan, which is a 37.38% increase year-on-year and a 22.2% increase quarter-on-quarter. However, the net profit for the same quarter was 58 million yuan, reflecting a 52.21% decrease year-on-year and a 35.89% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items showed a positive trend with an increase of 11.60% year-on-year and 69.13% quarter-on-quarter [3][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company maintains its leading position in the silver paste market, with an increase in shipment volume in Q3 2025 due to stable production in the battery sector and an increase in market share for silver paste products. The company has also taken measures to hedge against rising silver prices, which has led to an improvement in unit gross profit. The product system is capable of meeting the demands of mainstream high-efficiency solar cells, and ongoing technological innovation is expected to strengthen competitive advantages. The company has a solid financial reserve, with cash and trading financial assets amounting to 2.1 billion yuan [10][11]. - Looking ahead, the company is expanding into the semiconductor core material market through acquisitions, which is expected to reveal a second growth curve [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.2 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 122% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters reached 11.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights significant growth in photovoltaic glass production, driven by strong demand and inventory reduction in the industry [2]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 12.3%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, but Q3 gross margin improved to 10.81%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in photovoltaic glass and diversifying into energy-saving building glass and pharmaceutical glass, which is expected to support long-term growth [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 15.68 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 17.8%, and is expected to grow to 20.25 billion yuan by 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.75 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 32.97% year-on-year, but a decline of 78.15% is expected in 2024 [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.63 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.14 yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 0.37 yuan in 2025 [5][11]. - The report indicates that the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.43 in 2023, increasing to 47.74 in 2024, and then stabilizing around 17.89 in 2025 [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3, driven by strong demand and inventory reduction, while also showing improvements in gross margin and net profit margin [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 285.5% [1] - For the first three quarters, the company reported operating revenue and net profit of 1.246 billion yuan and 640 million yuan, respectively, representing declines of 14.7% and 50.8% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.1%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin improved to 16.8%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - The company experienced a significant reduction in inventory, with industry inventory days decreasing to approximately 15.0 days by the end of September, down 17.6 days from the end of June [1] - The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass in Q3 was approximately 11.2 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 15% quarter-on-quarter, but prices increased to 13 yuan per square meter in September [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The company reported a net profit margin of 8.1% in Q3, an increase of 13.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company reversed asset impairment losses of 81.86 million yuan in Q3, contributing to profit growth [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company raised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 910 million, 1.56 billion, and 2.27 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the photovoltaic glass industry [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, citing significant cost advantages and a favorable industry environment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 380 million yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 285.5% [1] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 1.246 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 64 million yuan, down 50.8% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue was 473 million yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 38 million yuan, up 285.5% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin improved to 16.8% in Q3, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.1%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 16.8%, showing a slight increase [3] - The company reported a net profit margin of 8.1% in Q3, up 13.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s inventory turnover days decreased to 37.49 days by the end of September, down 12.5 days from the previous quarter [2] Market Dynamics - Industry inventory days decreased to approximately 15.0 days by the end of September, down 54% from the end of June [2] - The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass in Q3 was approximately 11.2 yuan per square meter, down 15% quarter-on-quarter, but increased to 13 yuan per square meter in September [2] - The industry’s daily melting capacity reached 88,540 tons per day, a decrease of 10% from the end of June, which is expected to support prices in Q4 [2] Profit Forecast - The report raises the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of 910 million yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 2.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The updated price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are projected at 48.6, 28.3, and 19.5 times [4] Company Overview - The company is positioned as an industry leader with significant cost advantages, and it is expected that profitability in the photovoltaic glass industry will recover from a relative bottom in the medium to long term [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is stable at 53,200 CNY/ton, while N-type granular silicon is at 50,500 CNY/ton, both showing no change from the previous week [1] - The polysilicon market is influenced by weak demand expectations for Q4 solar installations and limited new orders for battery components, leading to a subdued trading atmosphere [1][2] - The average monthly production of polysilicon is expected to rise to around 130,000 tons in Q4, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month, but most companies have nearly saturated their order intake for the month [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major manufacturers in the Southwest region plan significant production cuts in November and December, with Inner Mongolia's capacity undergoing maintenance, leading to a forecasted decrease in domestic polysilicon production to 125,000 to 130,000 tons [1] - The downstream operating rates remain stable, and the accumulation of polysilicon inventory is expected to slow down, although industry inventory levels are likely to exceed 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [1] - The current market situation indicates an ongoing supply surplus, with expectations of weak and stable operations in the short term due to policy uncertainties [1] Group 3: Silicon Wafer Market - The trading of silicon wafers is sluggish, with prices under downward pressure due to weak terminal market demand; the average price for 183N monocrystalline wafers remains at 1.32 CNY/piece, while 210RN and 210N wafers have seen price declines of 4.29% and 1.19%, respectively [2] - Despite a strong willingness among silicon wafer manufacturers to maintain prices, the weak demand from downstream battery component companies leads to a focus on depleting existing inventory [2] - The silicon wafer market is expected to remain in a supply surplus situation, but some manufacturers plan to reduce operating rates, which may gradually improve the supply-demand relationship [2][3] Group 4: Battery and Component Pricing - The average price for 183N battery cells has decreased to 0.31 CNY/W, while 210RN and 210N prices remain stable at 0.285 CNY/W and 0.31 CNY/W, respectively [3] - Demand for 183N battery cells is supported by the Indian market, but prices are slowly declining due to competitive pricing strategies from domestic manufacturers and shifting demand to Southeast Asia [3] - Component prices remain stable despite rising costs of raw materials and auxiliary materials, with TOPCon domestic centralized project prices ranging from 0.64 CNY/W to 0.70 CNY/W [4]