Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a state of oscillatory repair, and the stock - bond effect remains strong. The current bond market trend is restricted by changes in market risk preference, and short - term capital liquidity is the core logic affecting bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the performance of domestic fundamental data in August. If economic growth momentum continues to slow down and the exchange rate remains stable, it may boost the market's expectation of aggregate easing policies in the fourth quarter. The yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [4][98] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury futures rose by 0.75%, 0.43%, 0.28%, and 0.06% respectively this week. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, while their positions all increased [13][17][23][31] - **Yield Changes of Treasury Bonds**: The yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends this week. The yields to maturity of 1 - 2Y bonds increased by 0.9 - 2bp, those of 3 - 10Y bonds decreased by 1.2 - 2bp, and the yield to maturity of 30Y bonds increased by about 1bp to 2.03% [11][68] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policies**: On September 1, the SCO Summit issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. On September 3, the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss bond - related issues. Also on September 3, 12 provinces raised the minimum wage standard this year. On September 4, the Ministry of Commerce announced the first anti - circumvention investigation ruling in China [34][35] - **Overseas Situations**: On September 3, there was a global long - term treasury bond sell - off. The yield of 30 - year US treasury bonds exceeded 5%, and the yields of bonds in other countries also reached high levels. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the economic activity in most regions of the US remained almost unchanged. On September 4, the ADP employment data in the US in August was lower than expected, and the initial jobless claims reached a new high since June, increasing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September [35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads of Treasury Bonds**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds widened slightly, and the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds narrowed significantly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts of treasury futures widened slightly. The inter - period spread of 10 - year contracts narrowed significantly, and that of 30 - year contracts widened. The inter - period spreads of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed slightly [44][48][52] - **Main Contract Positions**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Bond Yields**: The overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fell to around 1.43%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds narrowed slightly [73] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 106.84 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 227.31 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 120.47 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell to around 1.44% [75] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 110.1925 billion yuan, the total repayment was 68.6488 billion yuan, and the net financing was 41.5438 billion yuan [80] - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1064, with a cumulative increase of 71 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates weakened [86] - **US Bond Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds oscillated upwards, and the VIX index declined slightly [91] - **A - share Risk Premium Rate**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI expanded faster. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year - on - year, and the economic recovery slowed down. In the future, policies to stabilize growth may accelerate [97] - **Overseas Situations**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 6 consecutive months, and the service PMI rebounded. The labor market showed signs of weakness, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September increased [97] - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market is restricted by market risk preference. It is recommended to focus on domestic fundamental data in August. The yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on September 5, 2025, including whether they will be in a state of shock consolidation, weak shock, strong shock, or wide - range shock, and also gives the corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Futures Index: On September 5, 2025, it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation pattern. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4383 and 4441 points, and support levels at 4306 and 4279 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2512 contract is likely to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 108.30 and 108.43 yuan, and support levels at 108.17 and 108.10 yuan [3]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2512 contract is expected to show a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 117.9 and 118.2 yuan, and support levels at 117.2 and 116.8 yuan [3]. - Gold Futures: The AU2510 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 818.8 and 823.2 yuan/gram, and support levels at 811.2 and 806.2 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver Futures: The AG2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 9685 and 9600 yuan/kilogram, and resistance levels at 9851 and 9965 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2510 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 79500 and 79400 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 80000 and 80100 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2510 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 20730 and 20770 yuan/ton, and support levels at 20590 and 20500 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend and will test the support levels at 2950 and 2919 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2989 and 3008 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 22000 and 21960 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 22160 and 22230 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2511 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 53000 and 53700 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2511 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 74800 and 75800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 71300 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3101 and 3080 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3135 and 3150 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3292 and 3275 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3335 and 3355 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 795 and 800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 777 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 1120 and 1138 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1090 and 1075 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1125 and 1106 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1152 and 1174 yuan/ton [5]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1255 and 1240 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1290 and 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2510 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 478 and 473 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 488 and 490 yuan/barrel [5]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 2409 and 2423 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2378 and 2372 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 3066 and 3081 yuan/ton, and support levels at 3039 and 3027 yuan/ton [5]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 16170 and 16230 yuan/ton, with support levels at 15880 and 15750 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - International events include the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, the US - Japan trade agreement implementation, and the US government's actions against a Norwegian sovereign wealth fund [7][8][9]. - Domestic policies involve the release of a sports industry development plan, a plan to stabilize the electronic information manufacturing industry, and a support plan for female scientific and technological talents [7][8]. - Central bank operations: The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 5, 2025 [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Precious Metals: On September 4, 2025, international precious - metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce [10]. - Crude Oil: On September 4, 2025, due to OPEC's expected production increase, US crude oil futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.07% to $66.88 per barrel [10]. - Base Metals: On September 4, 2025, London base metals closed lower across the board. For example, LME aluminum futures fell 1.11% to $2590.00 per ton, and LME copper futures fell 0.84% to $9891.50 per ton [11]. - Exchange Rates: On September 4, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402, up 66 basis points, and the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28 [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Futures Index: On September 4, 2025, major futures index contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [11][12][13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 4, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year T2512 contract and the thirty - year TL2512 contract both showed a rebound trend [32][35]. - Gold Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, but the medium - and short - term upward space has further opened up [39]. - Silver Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AG2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the long - term and short - term upward trends are obvious [46]. - Copper Futures: On September 4, 2025, the CU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term upward momentum weakened [51]. - Aluminum Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AL2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [55]. - Alumina Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AO2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [58]. - Zinc Futures: On September 4, 2025, the ZN2510 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [63]. ， the PS2511 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was weak [67]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On September 4, 2025, the LC2511 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and stabilized [69]. - Rebar Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and rebounded slightly [75]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the HC2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [78]. - Iron Ore Futures: On September 4, 2025, the I2601 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound strongly [82]. - Coking Coal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the JM2601 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [87]. - Glass Futures: On September 4, 2025, the FG601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [92]. - Soda Ash Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SA601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was obviously weak [97]. - Crude Oil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SC2510 contract showed a weak - shock downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased significantly [101]. - Methanol Futures: On September 4, 2025, the MA601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [105]. - Soybean Meal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the M2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term rebound momentum weakened [108]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RU2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets [2]. - The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. - Since July, the stock index has been rising continuously with a large increase. There are signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - and long - term market continuation is high [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (including current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) decreased compared to the day before. The price declines were - 83.40, - 84.80, - 81.20, and - 79.40 respectively, with corresponding decline rates of - 1.88%, - 1.92%, - 1.84%, and - 1.81%. The trading volumes were 133914.00, 8218.00, 57395.00, and 15256.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6959.00, 915.00, 3261.00, and 1301.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased. The price declines were - 44.40, - 43.80, - 44.80, and - 45.00 respectively, with decline rates of - 1.51%, - 1.49%, - 1.52%, and - 1.53%. The trading volumes were 65727.00, 5056.00, 24358.00, and 6289.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 4043.00, 826.00, 2463.00, and 1652.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts declined. The price declines were - 165.00, - 164.60, - 167.00, and - 169.20 respectively, with decline rates of - 2.42%, - 2.44%, - 2.51%, and - 2.60%. The trading volumes were 113276.00, 8055.00, 55486.00, and 17262.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 9697.00, 1664.00, 2409.00, and 2562.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased. The price declines were - 158.40, - 151.60, - 154.20, and - 147.40 respectively, with decline rates of - 2.21%, - 2.14%, - 2.22%, and - 2.17%. The trading volumes were 239398.00, 15491.00, 98940.00, and 29410.00 respectively. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 1649.00, while those of the next - month, next - quarter, and far - quarter contracts increased by 1824.00, 3861.00, and 1460.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased compared to the day before, with decline rates of - 2.12%, - 1.71%, - 2.48%, and - 2.30% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indices also changed [1]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed various trends. The energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries had different decline or increase rates, with the telecommunications industry having a significant decline rate of - 9.13% and the public utilities industry having a slight increase rate of 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - For the CSI 300, the basis differences between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index changed compared to the day before [1]. - For the SSE 50, the basis differences between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index also changed [1]. - For the CSI 500, the basis differences between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index changed [1]. - For the CSI 1000, the basis differences between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index changed [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index decreased compared to the day before, with decline rates of - 1.25%, - 2.83%, - 2.37%, and - 4.25% respectively [1]. - Overseas indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had different performance, with the Hang Seng Index declining by - 1.12% and the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increasing by 1.53%, 0.83%, and 0.74% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti - circumvention investigation ruling, deciding to implement anti - circumvention measures on US exporters from September 4 [2]. - President Xi Jinping held talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, emphasizing China's support for North Korea's development path and its objective and fair stance on the Korean Peninsula issue [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing sports consumption potential and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, aiming to cultivate world - influential sports enterprises and events and achieve a total industry scale of over 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [2]. - Two departments issued an action plan for stabilizing the growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry, with the expected average growth rate of the added value of scale - above computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries at about 7% from 2025 - 2026, and the average annual revenue growth rate of the electronic information manufacturing industry exceeding 5% including related fields [2]. - Shanghai launched the "Keyan" Return Plan (pilot), providing 50,000 yuan in subsidies to eligible female scientific and technological talents after childbirth [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - From January to July, China's renewable energy added 283 million kilowatts of installed capacity, with a total installed capacity of 2.171 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly 60% of the country's total installed capacity. Efforts will be made to promote the development of new models and formats of renewable energy [2]. - In September, the housing supply in 28 cities increased by 10% month - on - month due to the traditional marketing peak season. The supply in first - tier cities rebounded significantly, while that in second - tier cities remained flat month - on - month but halved year - on - year with intensified internal differentiation. The supply in third - and fourth - tier cities increased both month - on - month and year - on - year due to the influence of individual cities such as Wuxi [2]. - The Securities Association of China launched the 2025 single - business quality evaluation work for securities companies' investment banking, bond business, and major asset restructuring financial advisory business, requiring relevant evaluation materials to be submitted by September 15 [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indices rose, while the stock index continued to correct in the previous trading day, with the communication sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan. On September 2, the margin trading balance increased by 1.548 billion yuan to 2.273914 trillion yuan [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trading instruments are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, trading instruments are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [6]. - A series of macro - economic events at home and abroad have an impact on the financial and commodity markets, and different trading strategies are proposed for various trading products in different sectors [8][13][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - China's Ministry of Commerce announced the first anti - circumvention investigation ruling, and the central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations. Two departments issued an action plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry. The real estate market in 28 cities has supply changes. The US - Japan trade agreement is implemented, and the US has a soaring trade deficit in July. The US Department of Justice investigated a Fed governor, and the ADP employment data in August was lower than expected [8][9][10] Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term may be mainly oscillating, and long - term consider buying on dips [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt a curve - steepening strategy, keep the idea of steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - and long - term, and participate in short - term rebounds with appropriate stop - loss and take - profit [14][15] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The supply policy has limited impact on the market. The market may have a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season". Steel continues to have limited downward adjustment space and maintains an oscillating trend in the medium - term, while iron ore can be lightly short - sold [17][18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to fall from high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to production progress and enterprise production conditions [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Consider buying silicon iron 10 contracts on dips, and maintain a medium - and long - term strategy of short - selling manganese silicon on rebounds [19]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash can be short - sold on rallies, and glass is recommended to be observed for the time being [20] Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum can be bought on dips, while alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term and short - sold on rallies in the medium - term [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon's price is mainly affected by policy progress and is in a fierce game [24] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term [27]. - **Sugar**: Adopt a bearish strategy [29]. - **Eggs**: Temporarily treat it as a rebound and be cautious about the upside [32]. - **Apples**: Consider buying on dips or using a positive spread strategy [32]. - **Corn**: Short - sell the 01 contract [33]. - **Red Dates**: Short - sell on rallies [35]. - **Pigs**: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and consider low - buying the 01 contract in the medium - and long - term [36] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Consider short - selling on rallies [38]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the change of crude oil prices, and the short - term price range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [39]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins will oscillate weakly [41]. - **Rubber**: Consider buying on dips [42]. - **Methanol**: Temporarily reduce short positions [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a bullish strategy [44]. - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil and is stronger than crude oil, and the short - term price range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [44]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Each variety in the polyester industry chain will mainly oscillate weakly in the short - term [46]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Adopt a bearish strategy in the long - term [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe whether the port destocking continues and the improvement of spot trading [47]. - **Logs**: Observe the market in the short - term [49]. - **Urea**: Adopt a bearish strategy [49]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [50]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

Group 1: Trade and Regulatory Developments - China has initiated its first anti-circumvention investigation against U.S. imports of specific optical fibers, aiming to address evasion of anti-dumping measures that have been in place since 2011 [2][3] - The investigation is a response to evidence that U.S. exporters altered product types to bypass existing tariffs, highlighting ongoing trade tensions in the global fiber optics market [2][3] Group 2: Economic Insights from the Federal Reserve - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates economic concerns, with businesses hesitant to hire due to weak sales and trade uncertainties, while inflation pressures from tariffs are described as moderate [4][5] - The report suggests a stable but weakening labor market, with companies increasingly using AI to replace jobs and manage workforce levels cautiously [4][5] Group 3: Local Government Financing and Debt Issuance - In August, local governments issued 977.6 billion yuan in bonds, exceeding previous plans, with a significant portion directed towards government investment funds to support technological innovation and future industries [7][8] - The shift in bond allocation reflects a response to limitations in traditional financing sources, aiming to stimulate local economic growth through new investment strategies [7][8] Group 4: Housing Market and Banking Sector - The six major state-owned banks reported a decline of 107.8 billion yuan in personal mortgage loans in the first half of the year, continuing a downward trend for three consecutive years [9][10] - Despite the overall decline, some banks remain optimistic about future mortgage applications, indicating a potential recovery in housing demand in key urban areas [9][10] Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - Apple is reportedly collaborating with Google to enhance Siri's search capabilities with a new feature called "World Knowledge Answer," which aims to provide AI-generated summaries rather than simple links [11] - This move reflects Apple's need to catch up in AI technology, as the company has faced criticism for a lack of innovation in recent years [11] Group 6: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - The stock of Cambricon Technologies saw a significant drop, losing over 800 billion yuan in market value due to index adjustments and concerns over its reliance on a few major clients for revenue [14][15] - The overall market experienced a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.25%, driven by declines in technology and military sectors, while consumer stocks showed resilience [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has determined that U.S. fiber optic manufacturers and exporters are circumventing anti-dumping measures by exporting G.654.C fiber optics to China, which will now be subject to the same anti-dumping duties as G.652 fiber optics starting from September 4, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The current anti-dumping tax rate for U.S. G.652 fiber optics is between 33.3% and 78.2%, which will now apply to G.654.C fiber optics as well [1] - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in March 2025 at the request of domestic companies, marking China's first such investigation [1][2] - The investigation revealed that U.S. exporters were using G.654.C fiber optics to bypass the anti-dumping measures on G.652 fiber optics, undermining the effectiveness of these measures [2] Group 2: Historical Context - The anti-dumping tax on U.S. G.652 fiber optics was first imposed in April 2011 for a period of five years, and it has been extended multiple times since then, with the latest extension announced in April 2023 [2] - The compatibility and substitutability between G.652 and G.654.C fiber optics have been highlighted as a key factor in the circumvention of the existing anti-dumping measures [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated anti-circumvention measures against imported optical fiber products originating from the United States, marking the first anti-circumvention investigation in China [1][3] - The investigation was launched on March 4, 2025, following a request from domestic companies, focusing on single-mode optical fibers with specific cutoff wavelength displacement [1][3] - Evidence indicated that U.S. exporters were circumventing China's anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related products [1][3] Group 2 - The anti-circumvention investigation aligns with Chinese laws and WTO rules, aiming to uphold the authority of existing trade remedy measures and ensure their effectiveness [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has collected public opinions on the draft rules for anti-circumvention investigations and plans to further enrich and improve China's trade remedy investigation system [3] - The Ministry emphasizes a cautious approach to implementing trade remedy measures while firmly protecting the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries [3]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced its first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, indicating that U.S. exporters were found to be circumventing anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive wavelength-shift single-mode optical fibers by exporting related products to China [1] - The anti-circumvention measures will be implemented starting September 4, 2025, following the investigation initiated on March 4, 2025, at the request of domestic companies [1] - This case is significant as it enriches China's trade remedy investigation tools and aligns with Chinese laws and WTO rules, aiming to maintain the authority of existing trade remedy measures [1] Group 2 - On July 30, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce published a draft of the "Rules for Anti-Circumvention Investigations of Trade Remedy Measures" for public consultation, indicating a commitment to further enhance China's trade remedy investigation system [2] - The Ministry emphasizes a cautious and restrained approach to implementing trade remedy measures while firmly protecting the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries [2]