瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 国债期货周报 债市震荡修复，股债效应仍强 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、财政部、税务总局联合发布关于划转充实社保基金国有股权及现金收益运作管理税收政策的通知。对承接主体在运用 划转的国有股权和现金收益投资过程中，贷款服务取得的全部利息及利息性质的收入和金融商品转让收入，免征增值税。；2、工信部、 市场监管总局发布《电子信息制造业2025-2026年稳增长行动方案》指出，在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现光伏等领域高质量发展，依法 治理光伏等产品低价竞争；加强CPU、高性能人工智能服务器、软硬件协同等攻关力度，开展人工智能芯片与大模型适应性测试；促进 北斗与人工智能、智能网联汽车、低空经济等领域深度融合；3、财政部发布通知，为完善项目单位对地方政府专项债券相关业务的会 计处理，强化专项债券全流程管理，财政部制定了《地方政府专项债券相关业务会计处理暂行规定》。 基本面：1、国内:1）8月 ...

2025 年 9 月 5 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银、铜期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、螺纹 钢期货将震荡整理 焦煤期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4383 和 4441 点，支撑位 4306 和 4279 点；IH2509 阻力位 2920 和 2949 点，支撑位 2872 和 2848 点；IC2509 阻力位 6688 和 6789 点，支撑位 6550 和 6455 点；IM2509 阻力位 7050 和 71 ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 商务部公布中国首起反规避调查裁决，认定美国出口商通过对华出口相关截止波长位移单模光纤，规避了中国对美非色散位移单模光纤产品的反倾销措施。商 | | 务部决定自9月4日起实施反规避措施。商务部表示，该案是中国首起反规避调查，对丰富中国贸易救济调查工具具有开创性意义。 | | 国家主席习近平同朝鲜劳动党总书记、国务委员长金正恩举行会谈。习近平强调，中方将一如既往支持朝鲜走符合本国国情的发展道路，不断开创朝鲜社会主 | | 义事业新局面。在朝鲜半岛问题上，中方始终秉持客观公正立场，愿继续同朝方加强协调，尽力维护朝鲜半岛的和平稳定。 | | 国务院办公厅印发《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见》，提出6项20条重点举措，目标是到2030年，培育一批具有世界影响力的 | | 体育企业和体育赛事，体育产业发展水平大幅跃升，总规模超过7万亿元。 | | 宏观信息 两部门印发电子信息制造业稳增长行动方案，2025—2026年主要预期目标是：规模以上计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增加值平均增速在7%左右，加上锂 | | 电池、光伏及元器件制造等相关领域后电子信息制 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 9 月 5 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 五债 | 中证1000指数期货 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 二债 | 工业硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | PTA | 多晶硅 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 乙二醇 | 合成橡胶 | 橡胶 | | | | 瓶片 | 碳酸锂 | 烧碱 | | | | 短纤 | 棉纱 | 硅铁 | | | | 十债 | 棉花 | 苹果 | | | | 三十债 | 纸浆 | 铝 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 玉米 | | | | | 尿素 | 原木 | | | | | 白糖 | 玻璃 | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

点击按钮▲立即报名 中国启动首起反规避调查 9月3日，商务部官网发布公告称，2025年3月4日，应长飞光纤光缆股份有限公司的申请，商务部发布2025年第14号公告，决定对原产于美国的 进口相关截止波长位移单模光纤可能规避对原产于美国的非色散位移单模光纤反倾销措施进行调查。 周四，商务部发言人对此表示，该案是中国首起反规避调查。立案后，商务部依法依规开展了调查，调查程序公开透明，充分保障了各利害关系 方的权利。经过调查，证据显示，美国出口商通过对华出口相关截止波长位移单模光纤，规避了中国对美非色散位移单模光纤产品的反倾销措 ｜点评｜ 从2011年开始，中国商务部决定对美国进口的光纤产品征收高额反倾销税。部分美国光纤出口企业通过改变产品类型的方式规避反倾 销税，现在商务部用反规避调查填补了这个漏洞，维护中国光纤产业免受外国公司不公平竞争的侵害，确保原有的反倾销措施起效。反规避调 查并非中国首创，欧美国家就曾多次运用反规避调查，为反倾销措施"打补丁"。 早在2001年，全球互联网泡沫破灭，全球光纤产能严重过剩。海外生产商为了消化产能，向中国市场大量倾销光纤产品，彼时商务部就对美日 韩三国的光纤产品展开了反倾销调查。 ...

中国世界贸易组织研究会副会长霍建国4日告诉《环球时报》记者，商务部决定对美企实施反规避措施 合规合法，符合世贸组织规则，目的是保护国内产业不受国外不公平贸易的损害。 今年3月，国内产业称，美国光纤生产商或出口商，利用G.654.C光纤与G.652光纤之间具有高度兼容 性、相似性和相互替代性的特点，将G.652光纤以G.654.C光纤的名义出口至中国，改变了向中国出口的 贸易模式，规避我国对G.652光纤适用的反倾销措施，严重削弱了反倾销措施的实施效果。应国内产业 申请，商务部决定发起调查。商务部发言人强调，立案后，该部依法依规开展了调查，调查程序公开透 明，充分保障了各利害关系方的权利。（倪浩） 商务部新闻发言人4日表示，2025年3月4日，应国内企业申请，商务部对原产于美国的进口G.654.C光纤 发起反规避调查，为中国首起反规避调查。经过调查，证据显示，美国出口商通过对华出口G.654.C光 纤，规避了中国对美非色散位移单模光纤产品的反倾销措施。根据调查结果，商务部发布公告，决定自 2025年9月4日起实施反规避措施。 【环球时报综合报道】9月3日，商务部裁定，美国光纤生产商和出口商通过改变贸易模式的方式 ...

红星资本局9月4日消息，日前，商务部网站发布公告，对原产于美国的进口相关光纤产品采取反规避措施。该案是中国首起反规避调查。 今日，商务部新闻发言人就对原产于美国的进口相关光纤产品反规避调查裁决答记者问。 据商务部介绍，2025年3月4日，应中国国内企业申请，商务部对原产于美国的进口相关截止波长位移单模光纤产品发起反规避调查。 立案后，商务部依法依规开展了调查，调查程序公开透明，充分保障了各利害关系方的权利。经过调查，证据显示，美国出口商通过对华出口相关截止波长 位移单模光纤，规避了中国对美非色散位移单模光纤产品的反倾销措施。根据调查结果，商务部发布公告，决定自2025年9月4日起实施反规避措施。 商务部贸易救济调查局负责人今日表示，反规避调查符合中国法律和世贸规则，旨在维护现行贸易救济措施的权威性，确保贸易救济措施的实施效果。《中 华人民共和国对外贸易法》第三十六条和第四十九条规定，商务部可对规避对外贸易救济措施的行为发起调查并采取必要的反规避措施。 7月30日，商务部公布了《贸易救济措施反规避调查规则》征求意见稿，公开征求公众意见。目前，相关公众意见已收集完毕。商务部将在实践中进一步丰 富和完善中国贸易救济 ...

针对商务部近日公布中国首起反规避调查裁决，商务部新闻发言人4日表示，经过调查，证据显示，美 国出口商通过对华出口相关截止波长位移单模光纤，规避了中国对美非色散位移单模光纤产品的反倾销 措施。根据调查结果，商务部发布公告，决定自2025年9月4日起实施反规避措施。 发言人表示，2025年3月4日，应中国国内企业申请，商务部对原产于美国的进口相关截止波长位移单模 光纤产品发起反规避调查。该案是中国首起反规避调查，对丰富中国贸易救济调查工具具有开创性意 义。 (责任编辑：谭梦桐) 商务部贸易救济调查局负责人4日表示，反规避调查符合中国法律和世贸规则，旨在维护现行贸易救济 措施的权威性，确保贸易救济措施的实施效果。《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》第三十六条和第四十九 条规定，商务部可对规避对外贸易救济措施的行为发起调查并采取必要的反规避措施。 这位负责人说，2025年7月30日，商务部公布了《贸易救济措施反规避调查规则(征求意见稿)》，公开 征求公众意见。目前，相关公众意见已收集完毕。商务部将在实践中进一步丰富和完善中国贸易救济调 查制度。中国一贯审慎、克制实施贸易救济措施，坚定维护公平和自由贸易。同时，我们也会采取必要 ...