Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions in the US and Europe, highlighting mixed signals in various economic indicators, with a tightening financial environment and stable consumer demand [2][4]. Economic Activity - The US WEI index shows a decrease, with the latest value at 2, down from 2.27 the previous week [5][15]. - The German WAI index has increased to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week [5][15]. Consumer Demand - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has slightly rebounded to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45% [19]. - Mortgage rates in the US remain stable, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.24% [21]. Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index is at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week [25]. - US gasoline prices have rebounded slightly to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week [25]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe are tightening, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.511, down from 0.514 the previous week [30]. - Offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8 basis points [33]. - Credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91 basis points [36]. Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan and US-Europe bond spreads have narrowed, with the US-Japan spread at 240.5 basis points [38]. - The Italian-German bond spread has also narrowed to 75.5 basis points [38].

Economic Indicators - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45%[5] - The WEI index for the US fell to 2, down from 2.27 the previous week, indicating a decrease in economic activity[4] - The German WAI index rose to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week, suggesting improved economic conditions[4] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US decreased to 0.511 from 0.514 a week earlier, indicating tighter financial conditions[7] - The offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8bp, worsening from -24.3bp a week prior[8] - The credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91bp, compared to 2.96bp a week earlier[9] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index stood at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week[6] - US gasoline prices rebounded to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week[6] Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan government bond spread narrowed to 240.5bp from 241.6bp the previous week[10] - The 10-year Italian-German bond spread decreased to 75.5bp from 76bp a week earlier, indicating reduced risk perception in the Eurozone[10]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, supported by government bond yield differentials and technical factors, leading to uncertainty in the currency's direction [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, maintains an accommodative stance to support recovery, while the new Prime Minister, Sanna Takagi, continues "Abenomics," reducing expectations for interest rate hikes by year-end [1] - The policy interest rate in Japan is 0.5%, with a differential of over 300 basis points compared to the US Federal Funds Rate, attracting funds for carry trades that support the exchange rate [1] - Despite weaker data in October raising the probability of a Fed rate cut to 60%, the resolution of the government shutdown has improved risk appetite, diminishing the safe-haven demand for the yen [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current exchange rate is in a consolidation phase, with the 154 level being crucial for both bulls and bears; after hitting a low of 152.80 on November 7, the rate rebounded to 154.49 on the 14th, indicating solid support [2] - Technical indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI remaining above 50, and the 20-day moving average around 152.52 providing dual support; a pullback to this level may attract buyers [2] - Resistance levels are identified at 154.48 and 154.83; a breakthrough above 154.83 could target the 155 level, with some institutions predicting a potential rise to 160 by year-end [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and then quickly rebounded. T and TL contracts rose during the mid - day session but then declined. Except for TS which slightly fell, other varieties closed higher [1]. - The funding market tightened, with DR001 rising to 1.48%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.99 billion yuan, with a net injection of 4.16 billion yuan [1]. Important Information - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown [2]. Market Outlook - The A - share market rose slightly today with increased trading volume, but the bond market was not significantly affected [3]. - The inflation data for October released over the weekend showed some improvement, which might be the reason for the lower opening of bond futures. However, the sustainability of inflation improvement is questionable, and it does not currently pose a major negative impact. The bond market is generally strong [3]. - This week, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of data such as October social financing, investment, and consumption. The market's overall expectations for these data are not high [3]. - Maintain a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions as appropriate [3]. Group 3: Data Summary Contract Price and Position Changes | Contract | Price on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Price on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Position on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Position Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS2512 | 102.466 | 102.472 | - 0.006 | 85,232 | 83,418 | 1,814 | | TF2512 | 105.93 | 105.92 | 0.01 | 172,702 | 175,280 | - 2,578 | | T2512 | 108.485 | 108.475 | 0.01 | 291,294 | 289,749 | 1,545 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 116.03 | 0.27 | 184,847 | 180,551 | 4,296 | [6] Basis and Transaction Volume Changes | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Basis Change | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Volume Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS | - 0.0267 | - 0.0403 | 0.0136 | 24,929 | 26,289 | - 1,360 | | TF | - 0.025 | - 0.0264 | 0.0014 | 49,109 | 44,485 | 4,624 | | T | 0.0205 | 0.0795 | - 0.059 | 58,830 | 54,915 | 3,915 | | TL | 0.1987 | 0.0885 | 0.1102 | 96,097 | 99,783 | - 3,686 | [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market experienced a net inflow of funds, with trading activity increasing. The total transaction amount for the entire A-share market reached 11.63 trillion, with a turnover rate of 9.63%, both higher than the previous week. The net inflow of funds amounted to 542.45 billion [6][7]. - The issuance scale of equity funds increased to 318.62 billion, reflecting a rise compared to the previous week. The top three industries for increased positions were power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and computers, while the top three for reduced positions were electronics, banking, and telecommunications [2][19]. - The net inflow of margin financing was 292.12 billion, with margin trading accounting for 11.75% of the total A-share transaction amount [22][23]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the net capital injection in the domestic market was 12,008 billion through open market operations. The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 5 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds decreased by 9 basis points, leading to an expansion of the yield curve spread [9][10]. - The report notes that the market anticipates a 67.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, indicating a shift in monetary policy expectations [14][15]. - The report also mentions that the total amount of locked-up shares released was 556.7 billion, with the electronics, banking, and computer sectors having the highest release amounts [32].

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, manufacturing, and consumer confidence [5][15][16] - It notes a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [6][20] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below expectations [15] - October manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 52.2, indicating expansion, while the consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low of 53.6 [15] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50, with service PMI reaching a 14-month high of 52.6, pushing the composite PMI to 52.2 [15][16] - Japan's exports rebounded in September, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while core CPI rose by 2.9%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes [16] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.16 from 2.50, indicating a decline in economic activity [20] - Conversely, Germany's WAI index rose to 0.05 from -0.02, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [20] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year decline, with the Redbook commercial retail sales index at 5.0%, down from 5.9% [24] - Mortgage rates in the US decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.19% from 6.27% [26] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.98, up 3.3% week-on-week [30] - US gasoline prices decreased to $2.90 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [30] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have eased, with the US financial conditions index rising to 0.648 from 0.428 [33] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with narrowing swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [35][42] - The yield spread between 10-year bonds in Europe has narrowed, indicating a shift in market sentiment [37]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight net outflow of funds in the market, with trading activity decreasing. The total trading volume for the week was 8.99 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate was 8.32%, both lower than the previous week. The market experienced a net outflow of 2.82 million yuan, indicating weakened liquidity [3][8][40] - The net capital injection from the central bank was 781 billion yuan, with the DR007 rate rising and the R007 rate falling, leading to a narrowing of the interest rate spread between them. The yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 3 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds rose by 7 basis points, resulting in a reduced yield spread [11][12][19] - The report highlights a decrease in the turnover rate and trading volume across major indices, reflecting a weakening micro liquidity environment [20][23] Group 2 - The issuance of equity funds increased to 135.44 billion yuan, showing a rise compared to the previous week. The report notes that the top three sectors for fund accumulation were electronics, telecommunications, and power equipment, while the sectors with the largest reductions were pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and agriculture [24][29] - In the primary market, there were two IPOs raising 25.4 billion yuan, and 11 refinancing cases totaling 226.51 billion yuan. Additionally, there was a significant reduction in industrial capital, with a decrease of 79.94 billion yuan [40][41] - The report mentions that the total amount of locked shares released was 637.53 billion yuan, with electronics, computers, and power equipment being the top sectors affected by the release [46]

Group 1 - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has raised concerns about potential political instability in France, leading to significant market reactions [1] - The French CAC40 index fell by 1.9%, marking the largest decline since late August, while a stock basket index tracking companies with over 30% domestic revenue dropped by 3.7% [1] - Major French banks, including Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas, led declines in European banking stocks due to a surge in 10-year government bond yields [1] Group 2 - The spread of French government bonds over German bonds, a key indicator of fiscal risk, has widened to over 89 basis points, the highest level since the end of 2024 [1] - The newly appointed cabinet by President Emmanuel Macron faced widespread criticism just a day before Lecornu's resignation, indicating potential challenges in governance [1] - Market reactions were characterized as typical, with declines in domestic stocks, banking shares, and other vulnerable sectors, although not indicative of widespread panic according to market analysts [1]

Group 1 - The political crisis in France has intensified with the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu just one day after President Emmanuel Macron appointed a new cabinet, leading to strong reactions from various parties [1][3] - Investors are reacting to the political uncertainty by selling French government bonds, causing the 10-year bond yield to rise by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and widening the spread between French and German bonds to over 89 basis points, the highest since the end of 2024 [1] - The CAC40 index in France fell by 2% during the day, while the Italian FTSE MIB index decreased by 0.25% and the European Stoxx 600 index dropped by 0.28% [3] Group 2 - The leader of the French Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, stated that Macron's ruling coalition has "collapsed" and the new government has "lost legitimacy," indicating an unprecedented political crisis [3] - Lecornu faces challenges similar to his predecessors, needing to push through a budget plan that includes spending cuts and tax increases to control the largest deficit in the Eurozone [3] - Analysts predict that the current situation is leaning towards triggering new elections, with expectations that the bond spread may rise and test 100 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment towards local government bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Yield Spread Analysis** - The yield spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds has widened, suggesting increased risk perception or changing interest rate expectations among investors [2] - **Local Government Bonds Issuance** - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to slow down in the coming week, which may impact liquidity and investment strategies in the bond market [2] - **Market Implications** - The changes in yield spreads and issuance rates could signal a shift in investment focus, with potential implications for asset allocation and risk management strategies among institutional investors [2]