上海证券报1月10日报道 [1] ，中国2025年12月向ITU申请超20万颗卫星频轨资源，其中超19万颗来自近 期成立的无线电创新院，卫星频轨资源申请已上升至国家战略层面。我们认为国内商业航天发展及国防支 出提速，或推动锗需求加速增长，在供应增速受限及库存回落背景下，锗价有望企稳回升，行业重估在 即。 评论 国内商业航天发展加速有望推升砷化镓电池锗衬底需求。 砷化镓电池具备转换效率高、抗辐射能力强、 使用寿命长等优点，据电科蓝天招股书，砷化镓外延片是空间单体太阳电池上游核心材料。据亚洲金属 网，中国2024年卫星光伏用锗需求占比15%。 国防支出增长，红外用锗需求有望同步提升。 据亚洲金属网，2024年国内锗需求结构中，光纤占30%， 红外占20%、聚合催化剂占20%、卫星光伏占15%。据新华社报道 [2] ，2024年中国国防支出同比 +7.2%，2025年中国国防支出预算同比+7.2%，我国国防支出继续维持高速增长，推动红外用锗同步提 升。 2025年初以来，我国锗出口先降后升，2025年11月出口量为2023年8月前三年月均水平的41%。 据海关数 据，2025年11月我国出口锻轧锗及其制品1594公 ...

Group 1 - The European Commission stated that Germany's defense spending increase has led to an excessive deficit, but no action will be taken against Germany for this issue [1] - The Commission highlighted that several EU member states, including Germany, are expected to see an increase in their deficits by 2026 due to rising defense expenditures [1] - The Commission's assessment revealed that the EU faces strategic vulnerabilities and structural challenges, including low productivity, demographic pressures, and rising public spending needs related to defense, decarbonization, and digital economy transformation [1] Group 2 - Finland's budget deficit is projected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2024, increasing to 4.5% in 2025 and then decreasing to 4.0% in 2026, prompting the need for an excessive deficit procedure [1] - Germany's deficit is expected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027, which exceeds the EU's Stability and Growth Pact limits [1] - The European Commission anticipates that the overall fiscal stance of Eurozone countries should remain neutral in the coming year, recommending a reallocation of budget priorities to meet strategic investment needs [1][2]

新华社布鲁塞尔11月25日电（记者康逸）欧盟委员会25日表示，德国因国防支出增加导致赤字超标，但 并未对德国启动应对过度赤字的相关程序。欧委会此前预计，国防支出增加将导致德国等多个欧盟成员 国2026年赤字上升。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Trade Relations - The meeting between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on trade issues, with Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs on Canada, which he believes Canada will accept willingly [1][2] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada, valued at $900 billion, is under significant strain due to ongoing tariff disputes [3] - Canada’s exports to the U.S. have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, while imports have returned to 2022 levels, indicating a decline in trade activity [4] Tariffs and Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber are severely impacting key Canadian industries, leading to job losses and a slowdown in business investment [4] - Trump increased tariffs on non-compliant goods under the USMCA from 25% to 35%, exacerbating the trade conflict [4] - Carney's government has attempted to ease tensions by canceling most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, focusing only on sectors still affected by U.S. tariffs [4] Future Agreements and Cooperation - Carney aims to negotiate a short-term agreement to lower or eliminate certain industry tariffs, with a focus on collaboration in various sectors [4] - The Canadian government is also preparing for the 2026 review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, indicating a long-term strategy for trade relations [4] - In response to U.S. criticisms regarding defense spending, Canada has committed to reaching NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP this year, with plans to increase it to 5% by 2035 [5]

Group 1 - The European Commission proposed to increase defense and space spending by €5 billion to a total of €131 billion [1]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [1] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52%, indicating it as the main driver of growth [4] Resilience and Challenges - Despite external pressures, China's economy shows resilience and potential, supported by proactive macro policies [2][4] - The economy faces challenges from external uncertainties and internal structural adjustments, with a need for balanced growth [3] Export Performance - China's exports exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, driven by "export grabbing" and enhanced competitiveness of enterprises [4] Policy and Market Outlook - The macro policy is characterized by a reactive approach, with expectations for further adjustments to stabilize growth and achieve the annual target of 5% [5] - The investment strategy is shifting towards structural trends, focusing on sectors like AI, energy, and defense, which are expected to provide substantial growth opportunities [8] Global Economic Context - Global investors face significant uncertainty, particularly regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which complicates decision-making [7] - The focus is shifting from seeking growth to identifying strong, long-term structural trends that can drive investment [8]

Group 1 - The Swedish Finance Minister indicated that defense spending will reduce the space for other reforms in the autumn budget [1]

Core Insights - Belgium's total borrowing requirement for 2025 has increased by €7.83 billion, reaching €52.52 billion, with one of the reasons for this increase being the rise in defense spending [1] Group 1 - The total borrowing requirement for Belgium in 2025 is €52.52 billion [1] - The increase in borrowing needs is attributed to rising defense expenditures [1] - The increase in borrowing requirement amounts to €7.83 billion compared to previous estimates [1]

Core Points - NATO member countries committed to spending 5% of their GDP annually on core defense and related defense expenditures by 2035 [1] - Additionally, countries pledged to invest up to 1.5% of GDP to protect critical infrastructure, enhancing resilience and strengthening defense industrial capabilities [1] - The declaration emphasized NATO's enduring commitment to Ukraine, ensuring continued political, military, and financial support [1] - NATO announced that the 2026 summit will be held in Turkey [1]