Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system faces significant structural flaws, including the broad "Triffin Dilemma," increasing spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies, and the trend of dollar "weaponization," which severely limits its stability and sustainability [2][8]. Group 1: Structural Flaws in the International Monetary System - The broad "Triffin Dilemma" remains unresolved, as the U.S. must continuously provide dollar liquidity to meet international demand, which undermines the dollar's credit foundation [9]. - The spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies have intensified, exposing the asymmetry of the current monetary system, where U.S. monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact emerging markets and developing countries [10]. - The trend of dollar "weaponization" has increased, with the U.S. using financial sanctions and the SWIFT system for geopolitical purposes, leading to a fragmentation of the international monetary system [11]. Group 2: Impact of Trump 2.0 on the International Monetary System - Trump 2.0 policies challenge the post-war international monetary system through debt tools, a retreat from multilateralism, and a focus on digital currencies, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global financial system [13][15]. - The U.S. is attempting to externalize its debt burden by encouraging trade partners to convert short-term U.S. debt into long-term bonds, which could undermine the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset [17][18]. - The cancellation of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) weakens the global aid network, potentially diminishing the dollar's soft power and its role as a global reserve currency [20]. Group 3: The Rise of the Renminbi and Digital Currencies - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing rapidly, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although it is unlikely to replace the dollar's dominance in the short term [5]. - The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies may reshape the global monetary system, with private cryptocurrencies potentially gaining institutional status and challenging traditional fiat currencies [6][25]. - The emergence of a "new dollar cycle" through stablecoins is seen as a way to supplement traditional financial markets with digital dollar liquidity, enhancing the dollar's position in the digital economy [25][28]. Group 4: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is entering a transformation phase, potentially evolving into a multi-polar, regionalized, and digitized structure, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi as key currencies [30][31]. - The regionalization of the monetary system is becoming more pronounced, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi emerging as three major currency poles, reflecting structural adjustments in global supply chains [33]. - Digitalization is reshaping the competitive logic of the international monetary system, with the U.S. aiming to establish a digital dollar hegemony through stablecoins and cryptocurrency regulations [34].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining momentum, with its global transaction volume reaching 8.5%, narrowing the gap with the British pound, indicating a new opportunity window for RMB's internationalization [1][3]. Group 1: Overview of the Book "New Currency Landscape" - The book "New Currency Landscape" discusses the new journey and progress of RMB internationalization, highlighting the significant changes in the international monetary field and the acceleration of de-dollarization among countries [3][4]. - It provides a comprehensive study from theoretical to practical perspectives, focusing on the evolution of the international monetary system and the repositioning of RMB [3][4]. Group 2: Internal Trends and Challenges of RMB Internationalization - The long-term vulnerabilities of the dollar system and its weaponization have led emerging market countries to seek diversification of foreign exchange reserves, positioning RMB as a key alternative due to its purchasing power and market stability [5][6]. - China's shift from a passive participant to a partial leader in international trade and investment is driving the promotion of RMB in pricing, settlement, and reserve asset supply [5][6]. - The need for China to strengthen its internal unified market is crucial for enhancing its international competitiveness and supporting RMB internationalization [11][12]. Group 3: Regional Strategies for RMB Internationalization - Different regional strategies are required for RMB internationalization, focusing on developing countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, resource-rich countries, and developed nations like Europe [7][8]. - In Southeast Asia and Africa, RMB loans can be used for infrastructure projects, creating a dual output of products and capital [8][9]. - For oil-exporting countries, promoting currency swaps and bilateral pricing in RMB can enhance trade relations [9][10]. Group 4: Microfoundations and Key Challenges - The fragmentation of the domestic economy and the need for a unified market pose challenges to RMB internationalization, necessitating reforms in local government behavior and economic governance [11][12]. - Improving financial resource allocation efficiency is essential, as the current over-reliance on the banking system hinders the development of capital markets [13][14]. - The transformation of Hong Kong's financial market and its currency peg to the US dollar is a critical issue for RMB internationalization, requiring careful consideration of its future role [15].

从美国国债占比来看，该指标在1980年低于10%，2016年前后达到三分之一左右的峰值，2025年中期下 降至不到25%。从黄金储备占比来看，该指标在1980年前后达到近四分之三的峰值，2008年与2016年均 下降至10%左右，目前已经上升至25%以上。 必须指出的是，上述黄金储备占比与美国国债占比的消长变化，在一定程度上与两者价格变动造成的估 值效应有关。例如，黄金价格在2016年仅为每盎司1200~1300美元，到2025年中期已经上涨至每盎司 3300美元左右。又如，10年期美国国债收益率在2016年的均值仅为1.85%左右，到2025年中期上升为 4.2%~4.3%。黄金价格上涨会造成黄金储备价值上升，美国国债收益率上升会导致存量美国国债市场价 格下跌。 但不可否认的是，黄金储备占比与美国国债占比的消长变化，的确也与各国在国际储备管理中有意增持 黄金、减持美国国债的行为有关。例如，美国高盛集团一份报告指出，2022年至今全球黄金价格上涨， 最重要的原因就是一些主权国家在持续购入黄金作为国际储备。 很有意思的一个现象是，美国国债占全球国际储备比重持续上升的时期（1980年至2016年），恰好是经 济金 ...

注：本文发表于《中国外汇》2025年第18期，转载请注明出处。文中配图摄于雁栖湖西山步道。 最近，有一张图表在社交媒体上频繁刷屏。这张图表上有两个指标，分别是黄金储备与美国国债各自占全球国际储备的比重。图上有两个关键的时间节 点。在1996年之前，黄金储备占比高于美国国债占比。在1996年至2025年上半年，美国国债占比高于黄金储备占比。然而从2025年下半年起，黄金储备占 比重新超过美国国债占比。 从美国国债占比来看，该指标在1980年低于10%，在2016年前后达到三分之一左右的峰值，在2025年中期下降至不到25%。从黄金储备占比来看，该指标 在1980年前后达到近四分之三的峰值，在2008年与2016年均下降至10%左右，目前已经上升至25%以上。 必须指出的是，上述黄金储备占比与美国国债占比的消长变化，在一定程度上与两者价格变动造成的估值效应有关。例如，黄金价格在2016年仅为每盎司 1200-1300美元，到2025年中期已经上涨至每盎司3300美元左右。又如，10年期美国国债收益率在2016年的均值仅为1.85%左右，到2025年中期上升为4.2- 4.3%。黄金价格上涨会造成黄金储备价值上升， ...

Core Insights - The international monetary landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a trend towards diversification of non-dollar currencies and the rapid application of emerging technologies like blockchain in digital currency development [1][5][7] Group 1: International Monetary System - The process of "de-dollarization" is still under observation, but the evolution of the international monetary system presents opportunities for currencies like the Renminbi [1][6] - The weakening of the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including its overvaluation and concerns regarding the US fiscal situation, leading to a depreciation of approximately 10% compared to early 2025 [5][6] - Countries are not necessarily pursuing "de-dollarization" but are focusing on risk management strategies in response to the changing landscape [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Blockchain - The rise of digital currencies offers significant opportunities in two main areas: financial inclusion and cross-border payments, potentially reducing costs through a unified blockchain network [7][8] - Blockchain technology can address issues of data independence among financial institutions, enhancing data portability and privacy [8] - The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is still in the exploratory phase, with varying strategies among developed and emerging markets [10] Group 3: ASEAN and Regional Cooperation - The ASEAN economies have experienced a slowdown this year but remain stable, with potential for growth in investment and trade within the "ASEAN+3" framework [3] - The integration of ASEAN with China, Japan, and South Korea can leverage financial and technological advantages to foster internal growth and productivity [3] Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - High levels of openness in the Chinese economy are crucial for the internationalization of the Renminbi, supported by stable economic growth and deepening financial markets [12] - The gradual process of Renminbi internationalization is influenced by external factors, including US policy changes that may affect the dollar's dominance [12]

Group 1: International Monetary Landscape - The international monetary landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a trend towards diversification of non-dollar currencies [1] - The rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology presents opportunities for inclusive finance and cross-border payments [2][12] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The international economic situation is influenced by U.S. tariff policies and the rapid development of artificial intelligence, leading to a more positive outlook for the Asia-Pacific region than initially expected [5][6] - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and vitality, suggesting stability despite external uncertainties [7] Group 3: ASEAN and Regional Cooperation - The ASEAN+3 region (ASEAN plus China, Japan, and South Korea) remains one of the fastest-growing economic areas globally, with significant potential for investment and trade growth [8] - Strengthening integration and reducing non-tariff barriers within ASEAN can enhance productivity and income for local enterprises [8] Group 4: De-dollarization and Currency Alternatives - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries considering risk management strategies in response to the weakening of the U.S. dollar [10][11] - The potential for other sovereign currencies, such as the euro and renminbi, to gain prominence in the international monetary system is increasing [11] Group 5: Digital Currency Challenges and Opportunities - Digital currencies offer significant opportunities for financial inclusion and cost reduction in cross-border payments, but they also pose challenges in maintaining financial stability and preventing illicit activities [12][13] - The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is still in the exploratory phase, with varying strategies across countries [15] Group 6: Renminbi Internationalization - High-level openness in China's economy is crucial for the internationalization of the renminbi, supported by stable economic growth and deepening financial markets [16] - The gradual process of renminbi internationalization is influenced by external factors, including U.S. policy frameworks and China's capital market openness [17]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid expansion of stablecoins and their profound impact on the international monetary system, emphasizing the need for regulatory frameworks and reforms to address structural changes in the currency circulation domain [2][3][4]. Group 1: Overview of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are a significant innovation in the cryptocurrency sector, effectively addressing the high volatility issues prevalent in the cryptocurrency market by anchoring to fiat currencies or other assets [3][4]. - The market value of stablecoins has surged from under $2 billion in October 2017 to nearly $170 billion by October 2024, with a notable increase in transaction volumes during 2020 and 2021 [13][14]. - USDT, as the leading stablecoin, holds approximately two-thirds of the market share, followed by USDC and DAI, highlighting the dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins [13][14]. Group 2: Impact on International Monetary System - Stablecoins enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments and may replace some functions of traditional reserve currencies under specific conditions, posing challenges to the existing payment ecosystem [4][5]. - The reliance on stablecoins, particularly those pegged to the US dollar, may lead to increased dollarization in smaller economies, threatening the sovereignty of local currencies [4][5][6]. - The cross-border nature and technological complexity of stablecoins present significant challenges for international regulation, including jurisdictional issues and compliance risks [4][5][6]. Group 3: Theoretical Framework and Analysis - The article introduces the concept of "currency circulation domain" to analyze the relationship between stablecoins and the international monetary system, focusing on spatial, institutional, and functional dimensions [5][19]. - The analysis reveals that the expansion of stablecoins is driven by the dysfunction of the current international monetary system, creating a demand for new tools and institutions [19][20]. - The emergence of stablecoins has blurred the boundaries of traditional currency circulation, particularly as they are increasingly adopted by traditional payment systems [30][31]. Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Recommendations - The article calls for enhanced regulatory measures and international cooperation to address the challenges posed by stablecoins, particularly in the context of their rapid growth and impact on monetary sovereignty [4][5][6]. - Specific policy suggestions are provided to strengthen the regulatory framework for stablecoins and reform the international monetary system to better accommodate the changes brought about by digital currencies [5][6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points with a probability of 99% during its upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [3] - The Federal Reserve will host a payment innovation conference on October 21, focusing on stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization, indicating significant developments in the tokenization of real-world assets [2] - The current international monetary system is facing challenges, including the loss of the dollar's dominance and the emergence of digital currencies, which may lead to increased volatility in asset prices [4] Group 2 - The traditional dollar hegemony is being questioned due to its disconnection from Chinese production capacity, leading to a dilemma in balancing liquidity demand and currency stability [4] - Experts suggest that China should explore the integration of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) with stablecoins and real-world assets to maintain value stability and efficiency [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that while the global financial system appears stable, there are underlying risks that could lead to significant disruptions [4]

Core Insights - The international monetary system is facing a "lack of anchoring," with traditional dollar hegemony exposed due to decoupling from Chinese production, leading to a shift towards technology as a new anchor [1][3] - Bitcoin and stablecoins have evolved from niche innovations to mainstream financial assets, with the U.S. reinforcing the dollar's dominance in digital finance through regulatory inclusivity [2] - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with U.S.-China competition escalating into a comprehensive confrontation in technology and financial systems, prompting strategic asset allocation [2][3] Group 1: Monetary System Challenges - The current international monetary system is experiencing a crisis of "anchoring," as the traditional dollar hegemony struggles to balance liquidity demand and currency stability [1] - The decoupling from Chinese production has left the dollar without substantial backing, necessitating a transition to technology as a new monetary anchor [1] Group 2: Digital Finance and Regulatory Landscape - Bitcoin and stablecoins are now recognized as mainstream financial assets, with the U.S. leveraging regulatory inclusivity to maintain the dollar's leading position in digital finance [2] - There is a call for China to adopt a more open regulatory approach to digital finance to avoid falling behind in blockchain and stablecoin development [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Strategic Asset Insights - The U.S.-China rivalry has expanded from economic competition to a full-scale confrontation in technology and finance, with implications for global asset allocation strategies [2] - Investors are advised to consider strategic assets like gold and rare earths in addition to technology investments to navigate global instability and debt crises [2] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices since 2018 is attributed to significant global changes, including debt expansion and geopolitical tensions, leading to gold becoming a more independent safe-haven asset [3] - Historical comparisons suggest that gold prices may break through $8,000, especially if U.S. equities face valuation corrections [3] Group 5: Future Outlook and Opportunities - The international financial order is at a historical turning point, with gold and Bitcoin representing new and old safe-haven assets, reflecting the need for a restructured monetary anchoring mechanism [4] - Experts emphasize the importance of balancing technology and strategic asset allocation while pursuing institutional innovation to seize opportunities amid turmoil [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rapid development of AI technology is leading to a significant transformation in the global industrial landscape, potentially creating a distinction between "AI developed countries" and "AI developing countries" [1][3] - The classification of labor and capital is becoming obsolete as robots serve both as capital and labor, which is a shift from traditional economic models [3] - The trend of AI and robotics reducing labor costs is causing manufacturing to return to developed countries, which may alter the economic growth logic that developing countries have relied on for decades [3] Group 2 - The price of gold has surged by 50% as investors increasingly purchase gold, despite high USD interest rates, raising questions about gold's potential return as a monetary anchor [4] - The call for enhanced multilateral cooperation among institutions like the Asian Development Bank, AIIB, and the World Bank is emphasized to address global economic growth prospects and uncertainties [4] - The focus of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is on ensuring that funds are allocated effectively to support global economic growth initiatives [4]