Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较周四低位反弹。 价格屡创新高的金银9日经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 刚刚过去的9日，以色列哈马斯之间的和谈进展令美元指数上涨0.72%，突破99高位，创两个多月新高。贵金属则 随即转跌，国际金价跌破4000美元，跌幅达1.7%；现货白银历史性地自1980年来首次涨破50美元关口，上探51美 元，但随后一度回落超5.6%。但期金和现货黄金盘中均曾扭转涨跌幅，反映市场依然看好贵金属长期结构性、周 期性牛市前景。 10日午间，COMEX黄金期货报3987.60美元，COMEX白银期货报47.40美元，均已较9日低位反弹。 黄金上涨趋势不改 9日美股盘前，金价一度连续第四日创盘中最高纪录，COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元，日内涨近0.2%，现货 黄金逼近4058美元，日内涨近0.4%，但午盘刷新日低，期金跌至3958美元下方，日内跌近2.8%，现货黄金跌至 39451美元，日内跌2.4%。 机构HashKey Group的首席分析师丁（Jeffrey Ding）告诉第一财经，黄金最近一波上涨背后的一个因素是，在美 国两党 ...

传奇投资人、亿万富翁瑞·达利欧近日指出，美国和英国这两个老牌大国的未来都不乐观，他对美英两国的发展轨迹都不看好，他还说"我 们正在步入非常非常黑暗的时期"。达利欧是全球最大的对冲基金桥水公司的创始人。通过他对500年来的历史的研究，他认为，我们目前 正处于一个80年的历史周期中，可能马上会迎来一个全球冲突和国内冲突全面加剧的历史阶段。 达利欧认为，有五大主要力量推动了历史 的循环：货币和债务力量、国内冲突、地缘政治冲突、自然行为以及人类的发明创造——尤其是科学技术的进步。他指出，美英两国都表 现出了一些症状，说明两国已经逼近了大国历史时期的一个危险阶段。 达利欧在现身"CEO日记"播客时表示："英国存在金融问题，英国 政府也存在债务问题。"但债务相对于收入增加时，就会挤压经济。这种金融压力与第二大力量有关，也就是激烈的国内冲突。由于社会存 在着巨大的贫富差距和机会差距，导致社会左右两派出现了深刻的分裂，从而导致人们对体制失去信任。达利欧认为，英国缺乏美国那样 的创新文化，也缺乏强大的资本市场，这进一步阻碍了英国的发展前景。 达利欧的看法可能有一些争议性。但不可否认的是，在过去20年 间，英国的生产力确实并没有 ...

法国动手了！特种部队在公海强行夺取俄罗斯油轮，陆军司令随即宣布："今晚，准备开战"！这不是外交警告，这不是演习，这是法国扔向克里姆林宫的一 颗已经点燃引信的炸弹！ 同一区域的德国、意大利也紧张起来。它们能源跟俄罗斯绑得很紧，法国这一闹，如果换来俄方的全面断供，工厂停产、民用发电吃紧，经济马上受伤。就 连跟法国关系不错的西班牙，也选择公开表态要用谈的，不愿沾火。这说明，法国这步走得太猛，连朋友都不敢拍肩膀支持。 俄罗斯的脾气，不是第一次在欧洲见识。之前乌克兰的事儿，北约不少国家都试着压它，结果俄罗斯硬顶下来。这次动了它的油轮，很可能直接换来反制， 比如断法国的能源供应，或者在黑海拦法国的货船。对法国来说，这就像堵了自己生活的主路，到时候别说硬气，连日常运转都够呛。 现在的局面，就是一颗已经点燃的炸弹，法国手还按在上面。另一边俄罗斯已经在调整战术，欧盟内部各国意见不合，能不能把火压下去都难说。这种硬碰 硬的做法，在桌面上看是展示力量，但在生活里，它换来的可能只是普通人日子里更冷更难的一个冬天。 2025年10月1日这天，圣纳泽尔港附近的海域突然热闹起来。法国海军直升机轰鸣着靠近"博罗凯"号，那船挂的是贝宁的旗，但 ...

格隆汇10月4日｜金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示，黄金市场的这波上涨，直接原因在于全球黄 金市场投资专业人士预计，10月份美联储进一步降息的概率超过90%。美联储的降息决策，无疑是推动 金价上涨的关键"催化剂"。市场普遍预期本年度美联储仍会降息1—2次，这一预期极大地推动了黄金价 格的持续上涨。这些因素对黄金价格上涨的作用，还在持续释放，这也是市场普遍看多金价的原因之 一。除了美联储降息预期，地缘政治冲突的持续升级也为黄金价格上涨添了把火。美国政府停摆致使信 用受损，加剧了市场的避险情绪。同时，美国政府宣布允许向乌克兰出口射程超过1000公里的远程导 弹，使得地缘军事冲突进一步加剧。以色列在海上堵截对加沙的救援国际援助组织，也直接促使了黄金 价格的大幅上涨。此外，欧洲突然宣布对进口钢铁加征50%的关税，表明欧洲正式开启了地缘政治军事 博弈，导致黄金避险情绪在短期内迅速升温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The advantages of gold as a credit asset are becoming increasingly prominent against the backdrop of excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce, raising concerns about its future trajectory [1] Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Monetary Attributes - Historically, gold has served as a crucial support for currency circulation, providing stability and credibility to the monetary system, but its monetary attributes are gradually weakening [4][2] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to a fiat currency system has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [2] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the liberation of gold prices from fixed exchange rates, leading to a floating exchange rate system and an era of credit currency [2] Group 2: Changes in Gold's Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold's investment demand has shown strong growth, increasing from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs transitioning from negative to positive contributions [4][6] - The demand for gold jewelry and technology applications has also been significant, with gold consumption in jewelry manufacturing decreasing from 2,247 tons in 2021 to 2,012 tons in 2024, while technological demand remains stable [6] - The supply of gold has not kept pace with demand, with total demand rising from 4,026 tons in 2021 to 4,606 tons in 2024, while gold mine production only increased from 3,573 tons to 3,673 tons during the same period [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with military conflicts leading to inflationary pressures that typically drive up gold prices [11] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices has been evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices rose by 23.9% during the same period [8][10] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been increasing their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The future trajectory of gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [20][21] - If geopolitical tensions ease and U.S. debt issues are managed, gold prices may stabilize or face downward pressure, as current prices are significantly above production costs [21] - Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts intensify and U.S. debt issues worsen, gold's safe-haven attributes may become more pronounced, leading to further price increases [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by TikTok in the U.S. market due to legislative actions and political pressures, highlighting that the company's future developments are increasingly beyond its control [2][5][37]. Group 1: Legislative Actions and Political Pressures - On January 19, 2025, TikTok was effectively banned in the U.S. as Congress passed a law requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a ban [2][6]. - The law applies to all ByteDance products, including Lemon8, CapCut, and Lark, which were also taken offline in the U.S. [2]. - The U.S. government has escalated its scrutiny of TikTok, transitioning from individual executive actions to formal legislative measures [5][11]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - TikTok's current situation mirrors past challenges faced by Huawei, where national security concerns led to significant operational hurdles [4][5]. - TikTok's entry into the U.S. market in 2017 coincided with rising geopolitical tensions, which have only intensified over the years [4][5]. - The company has made substantial investments in growth and compliance, yet its operational choices are now limited by external political factors [5][7]. Group 3: Company Operations and Employee Sentiment - Despite the ban, TikTok employees remain hopeful about the platform's future, with many continuing to work on business plans and operations [3][7]. - The TikTok e-commerce team faced immediate challenges as U.S. merchants were left uncertain about their inventory and sales strategies [3][7]. - TikTok has been proactive in engaging with local creators and businesses to enhance its value proposition in the U.S. market [5][14]. Group 4: Business Strategy and Market Position - TikTok has pursued aggressive growth strategies, becoming a major advertising player in the U.S. despite facing stiff competition from established platforms like Google and Facebook [15][24]. - The platform's e-commerce initiatives have shown promise, with daily sales reaching approximately $20 million in the U.S. [14][25]. - TikTok's advertising market share in the U.S. is projected to be only 3.4% by 2024, indicating significant room for growth [24]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - The article emphasizes that TikTok's future is uncertain, hinging on political decisions and legislative actions that are beyond the company's control [7][37]. - The potential for a 90-day extension on the ban has been discussed, but the overall sentiment remains cautious as the political landscape evolves [6][36]. - TikTok's ability to navigate these challenges will depend on its capacity to adapt and maintain its user base amid ongoing scrutiny [37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the market has declined again. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not advisable to hold positions stubbornly [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic, with large fluctuations. The core of the movement is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index Changes - On September 22, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 13.24% to 783.71 points, the SCFIS (European route) dropped 12.9% to 1254.92 points, the NCFI (European route) dropped 7.65% to 673.61 points, the SCFIS (US West route) dropped 11.6% to 1193.64 points, and the NCFI (US West route) dropped 23.30% to 944.89 points [3]. - On September 19, compared with the previous period, the SCFl announced price dropped 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points, the SCFI European route price dropped 8.8% to 1052 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) dropped 6.2% to 1537.28 points, the SCFI US West route dropped 31.0% to 1636 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) dropped 2.2% to 757.45 points [3]. Economic Data - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI initial value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest level since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Market and Contract Information - On September 23, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 28,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23, local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a ship heard an explosion about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen. The ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine. Since the new round of the Israel - Palestine conflict in October 2023, Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have caused more than 60,000 Palestinian deaths, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the bullish sentiment has faded. The market is weakening, and it is not recommended to add more positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Tariff issues have a marginal effect. In the short - term, wait for the market to bottom; in the long - term, take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Indexes - From September 19th to 22nd, multiple freight rate indexes declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 13.24%, the SCFIS (European route) fell 12.9%, and the NCFI (US West route) decreased 23.30% [3]. Economic Data - In August, the manufacturing PMI in China was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI all showed improvement. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - The US August manufacturing and services PMI data were better than expected [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop loss on long positions and wait for the bottoming opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to temporarily observe or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Market Conditions - On September 23rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 28,500 lots, and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4,522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23rd, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $3800 per ounce, is driven by a combination of factors including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and increased central bank gold purchases [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange have seen a significant increase, breaking the $3800 per ounce barrier [2]. - In the domestic market, gold bar prices reached 843 RMB per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices rise to 1098 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 10 RMB [2]. - The influx of new capital into the gold market has been identified as a direct driver of the price increase [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is considered a key catalyst for the rising gold prices [4]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut rates 1-2 more times this year, which typically inversely affects gold prices [5]. - An analysis report indicates a greater than 60% probability of two additional rate cuts in the fourth quarter, further fueling gold price increases [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to seek safety in gold [7]. - Recent global recognition of Palestine by several countries has escalated tensions, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2302 tons), marking the tenth consecutive month of purchases [9]. - Data indicates that the proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, reflecting a strategic shift towards physical assets [9]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - There are differing opinions on the future trajectory of gold prices. Some analysts believe that the current environment supports a prolonged upward trend, potentially reaching $4000 per ounce [10]. - Concerns about a possible short-term price correction exist, as historical patterns show that gold bull markets often experience pullbacks [10]. - Investors are advised to consider safer investment options such as gold ETFs or physical gold, while being cautious of the risks associated with high leverage products [11].