投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/24 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 2025/09/25 20 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 生猪：假期现货跌幅加大，收基差行情 | 周小球 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | | 同 比 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | | 元/吨 | 12480 | | | 50 | | | | 四川现货 | | 元/吨 | 11900 | | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | | 元/吨 | 12660 | | | -50 | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2511 | | 元/吨 | 12355 | | | 60 | | | | 生猪2601 | | 元/吨 | 1 ...

氧化铝期货的基差会变。 1、正基差（现货升水）：现货紧缺时常见，如2022年欧洲能源危机导致铝厂减产，氧化铝现货溢价。 2、负基差（期货升水）：预期未来过剩（如新矿投产），期货价格提前反映。 基差反映现货与期货价格的差异，其变动是常态，主要驱动因素包括： 1、套期保值：需动态调整头寸以对冲基差风险。 2、套利机会：基差偏离历史均值时可能存在期现套利空间。 3、交割决策：临近交割月需评估基差收敛路径。 基差变动的典型模式： 对交易者的意义： 1、供需关系：现货市场短期紧缺或过剩（如电解铝厂增产/减产）会直接改变基差。 2、期货合约期限：临近交割月时，基差通常收敛（期货价格向现货靠拢）。 3、仓储与运输成本：氧化铝物流瓶颈（如港口库存、铁路运力）会扩大基差。 4、政策与关税：出口关税调整、环保限产等政策可能造成区域性基差异动。 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月30日 | | 品种 最新值 较前一日变化 历史1年分位数 | | | 全历史分位数 | | 期现价差 | | | | | 73.80% | | | | | -160.43 47.96 35.0096 IM期现价差 | | | 7.00% | | 30.00% | | | | | 李月-崇月 -19.00 -0.80 58.10% | | | 42.20% | | 远月-当月 -44.40 -1.40 63.10% | | | 40.30% | | F跨期价差 -5.00 2.40 68.80% | | | 50.50%6 | | 季月-次月 | | | | | 远月-次月 -30.40 1.80 68.40% | | | 42.20% | | 远月-李月 -25.40 -0.60 56.50% | | | 33.10% | | 次月-当月 2.20 4.20 72.10% | | | 67.80% | | 李月-当月 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

2025 年 9 月 30 日 生猪：现货底部未现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12430 | | -150 | | | 价 格 | | | | | | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | -200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12710 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 12295 | | -280 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 12785 | | -315 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 12450 | | -205 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near - month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently showed wide - range fluctuations. The FU internal - external near - month also fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level year - on - year, the spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external price rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated [3][4]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residual oil decreased, floating storage fluctuated, ARA residual oil inventory decreased slightly, EIA residual oil decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly. The high - sulfur Middle - East peak season has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has completed its repair. Recently, refinery feedstock procurement has supported the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern, and a short - term internal - external bullish view is taken on domestic FU [4]. - This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis fluctuated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be enlarged on dips, and attention should be paid to quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 17.08, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 15.75, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.03, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 30.16, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 14.41, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.84, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.33 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 8.74, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 8.74, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 7.92, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.85, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.24, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 13.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 2.30, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 0.90, the 380 basis decreased by 0.40 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, FU 01 increased by 1, FU 05 decreased by 3, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 23 to September 29, 2025, LU 01 increased by 5, LU 05 decreased by 17, LU 09 decreased by 10, LU 01 - 05 increased by 22, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 15 [3].

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 76 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 0月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8470 | | 8440 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 | Y2601 8162 | | 8192 | -30 | -0.37% | | 墓差 | Y2601 308 | | 248 | 60 | 24.19% | | 现货墓差报价 | 01+220 江苏1月 | | 01+230 | -10 | r | | 仓单 | 25534 | | 25534 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 9230 | | 9170 | 60 | 0.65% | | 期分 | P2601 9236 | | 9222 | 14 | ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年9月29日 | 品种 | 長新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | -25.05 | 17,60% | F期现价差 | 6.24 | 30.30% | | | | | | | | | | | HH相邮价案 | 76.40% | 3.38 | 2.52 | 74.1096 | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -160.91 | 13.81 | 2.40% | 0.20% | 16.32 | IM期现价差 | -208.39 | 30.00% | 2.60% | | 次月-当月 | -10.80 | 3.00 | 35.60% | 35,60% | 李月-崇月 | ...