Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term iron water demand stops falling and rebounds, driving the stabilization and rebound of rebar and iron ore. For rebar, the short - term supply is affected by production restrictions and maintenance, and the demand faces seasonal weakening pressure. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound. For iron ore, the short - term import shipment volume decreases slightly, the demand side shows a slight increase in daily iron water volume, and it is expected to maintain a technical rebound [3][5][7][8][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.63% [5] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions began to rise slightly, and the overall trading volume was average. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation increased by 17 yuan to 3242 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price adjustments [5] Fundamental - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32% month - on - month and an increase of 0.73% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.99% month - on - month and an increase of 0.22% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 68.13%, an increase of 1.1% month - on - month and a decrease of 3.3% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.18%, an increase of 2.31% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.85% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 8.54 tons to 200.0 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3176 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar electric furnaces was a loss of 276 yuan, and the loss margin shrank by 4 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces began to rise slightly this week [5] - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 3002 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was a loss of 112 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic blast furnaces began to decline slightly, while the capacity utilization rate began to rise slightly. The loss margin of long - process steel mills continued to expand [8] - **Demand**: This week, the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.03 tons to 9.67 tons month - on - month, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 2.15 tons to 216.37 tons month - on - month. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 16.37 tons to 576.17 tons. In absolute terms, the current rebar inventory remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 137 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 19 yuan compared with last week. The current rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the probability of rebar basis contraction is relatively large in the later period [8] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the rebar output continues to decline due to production restrictions and maintenance on the supply side. The demand side faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreases slightly. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound [8] Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a slight rebound driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 1.58% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties showed mixed trends, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to decline steadily. The overall trading volume improved. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports had different adjustments [8] Fundamental - **Supply**: As of the 10th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2548.6 tons, a decrease of 210.6 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia was 1810.8 tons, a decrease of 84.3 tons month - on - month, and the volume shipped to China was 1534.0 tons, a decrease of 71.8 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 737.8 tons, a decrease of 126.3 tons month - on - month. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume of six northern ports was 1525.8 tons, a decrease of 60.1 tons month - on - month [10] - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 326.95 tons, an increase of 6.02 tons month - on - month. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot is 106.9 tons, a decrease of 18.0 tons month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.94 tons compared with last year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 292.63 tons, an increase of 3.93 tons month - on - month [10] - **Inventory**: As of the 14th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to increase slightly, currently at 15129.71 tons, an increase of 230.88 tons month - on - month. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9076.01 tons, an increase of 66.07 tons month - on - month [10] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - delivery product, the iron ore powder at Rizhao Port, was quoted at 821 yuan/ton, with a premium of 49 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 7 yuan compared with last week. It is expected that the probability of the iron ore basis starting to contract is relatively large [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the import shipment volume of iron ore continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease slightly next week, and the port inventory pressure will be relieved. The daily molten iron volume on the demand side begins to increase slightly, and the steel mills' daily consumption rebounds synchronously. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures will start a technical rebound [10][11]

Group 1: Common Option Structures - The three common option structures—Snowball, Phoenix, and Fixed Coupon Notes (FCN)—are essentially barrier options, with specific characteristics regarding cash flow and risk exposure [2][3]. - The classic Snowball structure allows for cash flow only at maturity or upon knock-out, while the Phoenix structure enables monthly cash flow as long as the price is above the knock-in line [2]. - FCN provides fixed coupon payments regardless of price movements during the holding period, making it attractive for conservative investors due to a significantly lower probability of knock-in [2]. Group 2: Profit and Loss Scenarios - In scenarios without knock-in, all three structures yield similar returns, with higher coupon structures being more favorable [3]. - In cases where knock-in occurs but knock-out does not, Snowball and FCN can still yield returns, while Phoenix's cash flow is affected by the knock-in event [3]. - If knock-in occurs and the asset price is below the exercise price at maturity, losses may occur, with Snowball being the most adversely affected due to no cash flow during the holding period [3]. Group 3: Risk and Return Dynamics - The risk-return relationship indicates that Phoenix typically offers lower coupons than Snowball, while FCN generally has the lowest coupon rates [4]. Group 4: Market Timing Considerations - Proper market timing is essential, as no option structure guarantees profit in all market conditions [5]. Group 5: Delta and Volatility Analysis - All three structures maintain a positive Delta, indicating a bullish stance on the underlying asset, and are more suitable for moderate upward or sideways markets [7]. - The expected volatility is positively correlated with coupon rates, as higher volatility increases the likelihood of reaching knock-in conditions [8]. - The structures tend to be short volatility in most scenarios, making high volatility periods favorable for entry [10]. Group 6: Selection of Underlying Assets - The choice of underlying assets significantly impacts the performance of the structured products, with the China Securities 500 Index being identified as a suitable candidate due to its risk-return profile [14][16]. - The analysis of daily return distributions shows that the Hang Seng Tech Index has the lowest probability of extreme negative returns, making it a favorable option [14][15]. Group 7: Historical Backtesting and Timing Strategies - Historical backtesting indicates that FCN can effectively mitigate knock-in losses, making it a lower-risk option compared to Snowball [16]. - Rational timing strategies suggest that selecting more aggressive structures during low-risk periods and conservative structures during higher-risk periods can optimize returns [16]. Group 8: Structural Variations and Adjustments - The flexibility in setting barriers allows for various structural adjustments to balance risk and return, such as eliminating knock-in features or adjusting the knock-out thresholds [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market funds are like a seesaw, shifting from the anti - involution logic to the industrial supply - demand logic. The 2601 contract faces a large discount and high industrial inventory. Before the implementation of specific anti - involution policies, the market focus has switched to the industrial supply - demand logic. Recently, domestic agricultural products have continued to decline, with low valuations and record - high positions, indicating intense capital games [3][5]. - In terms of specific sector varieties, building materials are bearish, and feed is bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - long Market Conditions - Last week's overall market was weak, with anti - involution and energy - chemical varieties showing a downward trend. As the 2509 contract entered the delivery month, the delivery price provided a benchmark, and the next main contract will compete around this price. The current contradiction is the large basis discount and the lack of a clear implementation path for specific anti - involution industrial policies. Before the implementation of expected policies, the 2601 contract of anti - involution varieties will still trade based on the logic of basis regression. Glass, soda ash, coking coal and other varieties have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. Short - term bearishness is due to the actual supply - demand logic of the industrial end, while long - term bullishness is supported by anti - involution at the bottom. Once demand shows signs of improvement, the overall valuation of industrial products will significantly increase [4]. - Exchange measures such as position limits and fee increases have led to large - scale capital outflows from anti - involution varieties. The pre - condition for large funds to participate in a variety is sufficient trading volume and open interest for smooth entry and exit. When the liquidity of a variety begins to shrink, large funds will choose to partially exit to avoid liquidity risks, causing price adjustments [4]. Capital Flow and Market Logic - Capital has gradually flowed out of black and oil - seed varieties, and the soybean - palm oil spread has rebounded. From the perspective of the term structure, the reverse - spread structure of glass, soda ash and other varieties has exerted significant selling pressure on the 2601 contract. The industrial supply - demand logic and basis are suppressing price rebounds. Without signs of improvement in demand, even with anti - involution expectations, funds are hesitant to take action. Therefore, the industrial - end logic may dominate in the future [5]. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow was - 7.401 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals had a capital outflow of 322 million yuan, non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 952 million yuan, black metals had an inflow of 166 million yuan, energy had an outflow of 663 million yuan, chemicals had an inflow of 156 million yuan, feed and breeding had an outflow of 257 million yuan, oil - seeds had an outflow of 2.855 billion yuan, and soft commodities had an inflow of 692 million yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: The data includes price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position - difference percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper [9]. - **Energy - Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar to the above, it provides data for energy - chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: It shows data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has started to gradually trade on the weak reality, and the steel and iron ore futures markets have continued to operate weakly. The short - term steel mill profitability has slightly contracted, and the steel output has continued to slightly decrease. Although the short - term apparent demand for steel has recovered, the inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the steel market and start to stabilize slightly [3][5][8][10] Summary by Commodity Steel Futures - This week, the steel 10 - contract continued to decline slightly under the drive of long - position main force position reduction. As of Friday, it closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan and a weekly decline of 2.16% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream steel prices in various regions generally decreased slightly, and the overall trading volume was average. As of Friday, the national average steel price decreased by 49 yuan to 3,335 yuan/ton, with different price adjustments in different regions [5] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 5.89%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.95%. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72% and a year - on - year increase of 22.48%. The steel weekly output decreased by 5.8 tons to 2.1465 million tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [5] Demand - This week, the building material trading volume continued to slightly decrease, while the apparent steel consumption started to recover. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.29 tons to 97,100 tons, and the steel apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [8] Inventory - This week, the inventory of five major steel products and steel inventory continued to accumulate. As of Friday, the total steel inventory increased by 198,500 tons to 6.0704 million tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [8] Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quote for steel in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, with a premium of 161 yuan over the steel 10 - contract, a week - on - week expansion of 29 yuan. It is expected that the steel basis will continue to expand [8] Comprehensive Judgment - With the seventh round of coke price increase implemented, the short - term steel mill profitability has slightly contracted, and the steel output has continued to slightly decrease. Although the short - term apparent demand has recovered, the inventory has continued to accumulate. After a week of rapid adjustment in the steel futures market, the short - term market pessimism has been released, and there is a technical rebound demand in the short - term market, with the upper pressure level focusing on the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost in East China [8] Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 - contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend. As of Friday, it closed at 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a weekly decline of 0.77% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally decreased slightly, and the price of domestic iron ore concentrate started to decline steadily. The overall trading volume was average, with different price adjustments for different varieties in different ports [8] Supply - As of the 18th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.257 million tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 24.766 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 947,000 tons. Currently, the iron ore shipments and arrivals are at the average and medium - high levels of the same period respectively [10] Demand - Currently, the daily average port ore handling volume of 45 ports is 341,040 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,760 tons. The weekly average trading volume of port iron ore spot is 106,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 240,750 tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 297,840 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 680 tons [10] Inventory - As of the 22nd, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to slightly accumulate, reaching 138.452 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 259,300 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 90.6547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 708,600 tons [10] Basis - As of Friday, the optimal delivery products (PB powder and Newman powder) at Qingdao Port are priced at 810 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan over the iron ore 10 - contract, a week - on - week contraction of 7 yuan. It is expected that the iron ore basis will continue to expand [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the imported iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase according to the two - to - four - week lag. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output continues to slightly increase, while the steel mill daily consumption starts to slightly decline. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the steel market and start to stabilize slightly [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips, and be aware of the basis regression risk of near - term contracts near the delivery date [2]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 16, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 10720.81 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22% to 2230.19 points. The STAR 50 Index rose 0.14% to 997.63 points. Market turnover was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, social services, automobiles, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while steel, banks, and non - ferrous metals led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3276, 211, and 1928 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 6.9 billion, - 6.5 billion, 200 million, and 13.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3 billion, +9.1 billion, - 3.1 billion, and - 8.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 89.26, 67.59, 22.6, and 9.7 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 15.01%, - 12.21%, - 6.13%, and - 3.85% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 14%, 10%, 20%, and 26% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near the delivery date, pay attention to the basis regression risk of near - term contracts. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 16, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.36, a decrease of 1.06 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.502, a decrease of 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.602, an increase of 0.05 bps; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.924, an increase of 0.09 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 520.1 billion yuan and withdrew 75.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market sentiment has recently contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [12].

面临库存压力。基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限操作 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1205 | 40 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1052 | 72 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 153 | -32 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1470453 | -180882 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1502078 | -120680 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -279455 | 28480 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -205464 | 145295 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3679 | -34 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 802 | -55 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -20 | -5 | | | 玻璃合约9月- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for polysilicon is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 32,840.0 yuan/ton and 33,985.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 4.80% [1] - The market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to intensified market speculation, with short-term prices expected to remain strong [1] Group 2 - From the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are currently operating at reduced capacity, and there is an increasing expectation for new production capacity, although many companies are facing cash cost losses, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [2] - Demand from downstream photovoltaic component production has been adjusted downward, indicating weakening demand, while polysilicon inventory levels remain high due to unsold stock from previous purchases [2] - The overall sentiment in the market is gradually improving due to the issuance of photovoltaic desertification plans in the northern regions, despite significant pressure on the demand side [2] Group 3 - The operational status of major silicon material manufacturers for July remains uncertain, with potential production cuts anticipated, while the photovoltaic industry may also see larger-scale reductions in the third quarter [3] - The total warehouse receipts remain low, indicating that the risk of warehouse squeezing has not been completely eliminated, necessitating attention to the registration progress of warehouse receipts [3] - Short-term price expectations are for continued strong fluctuations, with adjustments needed based on upstream and downstream production schedules [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures rebounded due to basis regression trading and a decline in production, while the glass price rose from the bottom due to favorable domestic financial policies, with most energy prices rising, driving up costs and demand [7]. - For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, but the demand is contracting, and the price will continue to face pressure. The basis regression trading may continue, and the focus next week is on the increase in spot prices. For glass, the supply and demand are both weak, and the subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations, with limited rebound height and strength [7]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1150 - 1220, with a stop - loss in the range of 1130 - 1240. For the FG2509 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 970 - 1070, with a stop - loss in the range of 930 - 1090 [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, soda ash futures rose 1.96%, and glass futures rose 1.19%. The soda ash futures rebound was due to basis regression and production decline, while the glass price was boosted by policies and cost increases [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the production growth rate will slow down, cold repairs may increase, and demand from glass shows a negative feedback, with inventory expected to continue to accumulate. For glass, the supply remains at a low level, and the demand is expected to weaken further, with limited rebound [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: SA2509 contract trading range is 1150 - 1220, stop - loss 1130 - 1240; FG2509 contract trading range is 970 - 1070, stop - loss 930 - 1090 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Soda ash futures prices rose this week, while glass futures prices fell [9]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soda ash spot prices fell, and the basis continued to flatten, with strengthening basis regression and the potential for futures to stabilize. Glass spot prices rose less than futures, and the basis weakened. As of June 27, 2025, the soda ash spot price in the Shahe market was 1210 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 24 yuan/ton. The glass spot price in the Shahe market was 1056 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, and the basis was 37 yuan/ton [13][17][20]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to weaken this week and is expected to continue next week. As of June 27, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 177 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production declined this week. As of June 27, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.65%, down 0.7% month - on - month, and the weekly production was 71.68 tons, down 4.8% month - on - month [24][27]. - **Corporate Profits**: Both soda ash and glass corporate profits declined this week. The cost of soda ash increased due to rising energy prices. As of June 27, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was 25 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1690 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 7 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1345 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. For glass, the weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels showed different changes [29][33]. - **Glass Production**: One more glass production line was cold - repaired this week, and the overall production remained at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production. As of June 27, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 222 in operation, and 74 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 109.09 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month, and is expected to remain low next week [35][37]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass remained flat this week, but the capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume declined. As of June 27, 2025, the operating rate was 69.66%, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate was 73.79%, down 1.31% month - on - month; and the daily melting volume was 95,600 tons/day, down 1,700 tons/day month - on - month, all expected to continue to decline next week [39][41]. - **Corporate Inventory**: Soda ash corporate inventory increased due to insufficient demand, while glass corporate inventory declined but the de - stocking was slow. As of June 27, 2025, the soda ash corporate inventory was 176.69 tons, up 1.1 tons month - on - month, and the glass corporate inventory was 69.216 million weight boxes, down 697,000 weight boxes month - on - month, with increasing de - stocking difficulty expected [43][45]. - **Downstream Orders**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders declined slightly and were at a historical low. With the arrival of summer heat, demand is expected to recover. As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.83 days [47][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while the demand will shrink, leading to continued downward pressure on prices. The basis spread of soda ash has started to converge this week, and the basis convergence trading may continue. The decline of futures prices is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply shows little change with a slight increase in overall production, staying at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the demand is expected to further weaken. The basis spread remains within the normal range this week, and the subsequent market trading will be more about policy expectations, with limited rebound height and strength. It is suggested to go long on dips in the short - term and maintain a short - selling mindset on rallies for the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 149 yuan/ton, the position volume is 1,561,404 hands (down 7,874 hands), the net position of the top 20 is - 307,826 (down 34,580), the exchange warehouse receipt is 3,698 tons (down 165 tons), the spread between September and January contracts is 7 (unchanged), and the basis spread is 46 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1,017 yuan/ton, the position volume is 1,445,375 hands (down 26,628 hands), the net position of the top 20 is - 238,048 (up 7,865), the exchange warehouse receipt is 877 tons (unchanged), the spread between September and January contracts is - 49 (up 2), and the basis spread is 41 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2]. 现货市场 - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1,197 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Central China heavy soda is 1,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China light soda is 1,285 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Central China light soda is 1,215 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,056 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants is 86.46% (up 1.56%), and the enterprise inventory is 175.59 tons (up 2.92 tons) [2]. - Glass: The weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (down 0.08%), the in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year (down 0.02 million tons/year), the number of in - production production lines is 223 (down 1), and the enterprise inventory is 6,988.7 ten - thousand weight boxes (up 20.2 ten - thousand weight boxes) [2]. 下游情况 - Real estate: The cumulative value of newly - started area is 23,183.61 million square meters (up 5,347.77 million square meters), and the cumulative value of completed area is 18,385.14 million square meters (up 2,737.29 million square meters) [2]. Industry News - There are multiple news including the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Anti - Japanese War commemorative event, the meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, central bank's MLF operations, diplomatic communications, policy issuances on financial support for consumption, economic promotion in Guangdong, etc. [2]. 观点总结 - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, demand is shrinking, prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to short the main contract on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows little change, demand is weakening, and short - term long on dips and medium - to long - term short on rallies are recommended [2].

形势不容乐观，5月房地产数据显示下滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1161 146 | -12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -20 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1015 1569278 | 8 84429 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | | | | | | | 1472003 | 30129 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -307826 | -34580 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -245913 | 29274 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3863 | -150 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 7 | -5 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -51 | 4 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 46 | 9 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | ...