以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：睿知睿见 来源：雪球 虽然A股最近有调整的迹象，但走势依然比较强势。表现出来的更多是内部结构的分化，而市场整体其实没跌多少。 上证指数在4000点反复横跳，中证全指只是横盘震荡。 如果没有增量资金，当市场内部在调仓时，往往会有回调的压力。 如果增量资金不断买入，且买入的量足够大，市场调整的幅度就很有限。 从现在的情况来看，明显是 有增量资金在不断地进入A股！ 增量资金来自哪里呢？ 一、两大资金池 很早前我就一直在跟读者朋友分享，A股的资金主要来自两个方面。 第一，跨国资金回流。 第二，楼市。 否则在对经济预期如此悲观的情况下，难不成是居民存款在入市？很显然不是！居民存款入市往往都是在牛市末期了。这种结构牛和慢牛，存款是 不感兴趣的。去年924那种连续暴涨，才会勾搭居民急急忙忙开户。 二、楼市与股市的关系彻底 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by fundamental improvements and the potential for AI industry catalysis to enhance net asset return rates, leading to higher market valuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with major indices reaching new highs, including the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 29.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 30.22%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 25.83% as of November 4 [2][3]. - Despite a notable adjustment in April and a recent high in October, the market is currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations, raising questions about its ability to maintain upward momentum into 2026 [2][3]. Fundamental Improvements - Predictions indicate that the revenue growth rate for non-financial Chinese companies listed overseas could reach 4% in 2026, with operating profit growth expected to be 13%, driven by cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and AI applications [3][4]. - Current valuations of the Hong Kong stock market are considered low, particularly in the tech sector, providing ample room for upward movement [3][4]. Capital Inflows - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD in 2025, marking a historical high [4][5]. - The inflow of foreign capital is expected to improve, as foreign investors are currently underweight in Chinese equity assets, and signs of a return of foreign capital are emerging [4][5]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is anticipated to be the main focus for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, benefiting from industry development and policy support, particularly in AI [6][7]. - There is also a recommendation to pay attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as the innovative drug sector is transitioning from investment to realization of results, and brokerages are expected to maintain high growth due to ongoing industry consolidation [6][7].

Core Viewpoints - The capital market is undergoing profound changes in its underlying logic, with a significant increase in the attractiveness of equity asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a positive development cycle ahead for the market [2][15] - The brokerage sector is expected to see performance growth potential and high cost-performance value recovery in the new cycle, with current A and H share valuations still at mid-low levels [2][6] Capital Market Building a "New Ecology" - The capital market is experiencing top-down reforms aimed at creating a healthy balance between investment and financing, with the central government elevating its strategic importance [3][18] - Policies such as the "New National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy system are being implemented to encourage companies to increase dividends and buybacks, enhance the delisting mechanism, and stimulate mergers and acquisitions [3][19] Incremental Capital Forming a "Positive Cycle" - Long-term funds are steadily flowing into the market, with significant increases in new account openings and private fund registrations, indicating a robust influx of incremental capital [4][36] - The total number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20.15 million in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase [41] Brokerage Business Reaching a "New Level" - The brokerage sector has seen a substantial expansion in market capacity, with a 68% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in the first nine months of 2025 [5][16] - The A-share daily trading volume is expected to stabilize at around 2 trillion yuan, supported by strong new account openings and record-high financing balances [5][16] Positive Outlook for Brokerage Performance and High Cost-Performance Opportunities - The long-term upward trend in the capital market remains unchanged, with an expected industry ROE of 7.7% in 2026 under neutral conditions [6][17] - Current valuations for large and small A-share brokerages are still at historical mid-low levels, indicating significant potential for value recovery [6][17] Encouraging Dividends and Buybacks, Moving Towards a Mature Market - The 2024 dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 45%, with buyback amounts hitting 165.9 billion yuan, both setting historical highs [23][24] - The capital market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with equity financing scales aligning more closely with those of mature markets [24][29] Enhancing Company Quality through Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of significant mergers and acquisitions has surged, with nearly 100 major deals in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2021-2024 [33][34] - Policies are being implemented to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the quality of listed companies and supporting the transformation of the real economy [33][34] Long-term Funds Entering the Market, Laying a Foundation for Stability - Long-term funds such as social security and pension funds are steadily growing, providing a solid foundation for the market [37][38] - The total assets of social security funds increased from 1.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2014 to 3.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating robust growth [37][38] Optimizing Foreign Capital Systems, Enhancing Allocation Space - The QFII system has undergone significant reforms to enhance the participation of foreign investors, with various measures implemented to simplify cross-border capital flow management [50]

Core Viewpoint - The securities brokerage sector is experiencing a decline, with the CSI All Share Securities Company Index down by 2.37% as of September 23, 2025, while the ETF tracking this index shows significant inflows and performance metrics indicating potential for recovery [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 22, the non-bank financial sector rose by 0.81%, but has seen a decline of over 8% since the peak on August 25 [2]. - The brokerage ETF has recorded a recent average daily trading volume of 17.98 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1]. ETF Metrics - The brokerage ETF's latest scale reached 34.998 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking second among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's shares have also reached a one-year high of 59.338 billion shares, making it the leading fund in terms of share volume [1]. - Over the past 18 days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 6.482 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.262 billion yuan [1]. Performance Analysis - The brokerage ETF has achieved a net value increase of 50.75% over the past year [1]. - The highest monthly return since inception was 38.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and the highest cumulative gain during that period being 28.47% [1]. Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, characterized by active trading and ample liquidity, indicate a potential for further growth in the brokerage sector despite recent adjustments [2]. - The influx of new capital into the market is expected to enhance performance and valuation opportunities for brokerages, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices opened lower on September 17, but began to rise after 10:30 AM, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index reaching new highs during the session [1] - By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3877.55 points, up 0.41%, with a trading volume of approximately 655.2 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13197.01 points, up 1.02%, with a trading volume of about 889.4 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3140.76 points, up 1.74%, with a trading volume of around 436.3 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as tourism, photolithography machines, exoskeleton robots, and NMN concepts showed strong gains at the opening [1] - By midday, sectors like diversified finance, electrical equipment, and photolithography machines led in gains, while hotel and catering, media and entertainment, and seafood sectors experienced declines [1] Investment Trends - According to China Merchants Securities, the continuous increase in financing balances, private equity fund sizes, and active individual investor accounts are key channels for new capital entering the market, with potential incremental funds estimated at 5.4 trillion yuan [2] - Citic Construction Investment highlighted that the European offshore wind power sector is expected to see a compound installation growth rate of nearly 30% from 2025 to 2030, indicating a positive outlook for project orders flowing to Chinese companies [3] Airline Industry Insights - Huatai Securities reported that the airline industry saw steady growth in supply and demand during August, with passenger load factors increasing to 86.8% [4] - Despite a decline in ticket prices earlier in the summer, there is an expectation of recovery in business travel demand in September, which may lead to improved ticket pricing [4] Government Initiatives - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced that central enterprises' R&D expenditures have exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, with a focus on strategic emerging industries [5] - The National Internet Information Office emphasized the need for leading companies to take responsibility for key technology breakthroughs, particularly in chip development, to overcome monopolies [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current low interest rates on bank deposits and wealth management products, combined with the ongoing profitability of the stock market, suggest a significant influx of incremental funds into the A-share market, potentially leading to a major upward trend [1][9][10] - The potential for incremental funds entering the market is currently below historical averages, while the heat index is above the historical average but still below the +1 standard deviation level, indicating substantial room for growth [1][9][10] - Key channels for the current influx of incremental funds include the continuous growth of financing balances, the rising scale of private equity funds, and the active number of individual investor accounts [1][9][10] Group 2 - The report outlines a significant amount of investable funds among residents, with signs of a new round of "deposit migration" emerging, as the stock market's intrinsic value continues to improve [1][10][11] - The report measures the potential for incremental funds entering the market through indicators such as household net deposits relative to A-share market capitalization and M1 year-on-year growth [1][22][24] - As of August 2025, the ratio of A-share market capitalization to household net deposits was 1.21, indicating a relatively high potential for future incremental funds [24][25] Group 3 - Historical data shows that the potential for incremental funds entering the market typically operates within ±2 standard deviations of the historical average, with significant market movements occurring when these indicators reach extreme levels [1][10][35] - The report highlights that the current characteristics of incremental funds entering the market include rising financing balances, active private equity fund scales, and a notable increase in individual investor account openings [1][10][40] - The estimated potential incremental funds available for the market could reach 5.4 trillion yuan, based on historical patterns and current indicators [1][9][10]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a significant inflow of incremental funds in July and August, driven by various sources including financing, private equity, and foreign investment, indicating a robust market activity [1][9]. Financing Funds - In August, the net inflow of financing funds reached 2744.45 billion yuan, doubling from July's 1328.79 billion yuan, marking a new peak [2][3]. - The trend of financing funds has shifted from weakness to strength since early 2025, with significant net inflows observed in the last few months [2]. Foreign Investment - Foreign capital showed remarkable activity in August, with the average monthly trading volume of the Stock Connect reaching 2942.27 billion yuan, a 45.8% increase from July [4][6]. - The trading volume continued to rise in September, reaching 3206.50 billion yuan, indicating sustained foreign interest in the A-share market [4][6]. Private Equity Funds - The newly registered scale of private equity funds in July was 792.81 billion yuan, significantly surpassing June's 299.83 billion yuan and setting a new record since 2022 [7][8]. - The management scale of private equity funds also saw a substantial increase, with an addition of 3254 billion yuan in July [7]. Individual Investors - The number of new individual investors has significantly increased in August, reflecting a growing enthusiasm for market participation [9][10]. - The increase in individual investor accounts is positively correlated with the market's profitability, contributing to a cycle of increased market activity [9]. Household Savings - As of August 2025, household savings have exceeded 161 trillion yuan, creating a substantial pool of funds waiting to enter the market [12]. - The growth rate of household savings has slowed since March 2025, while the A-share market's profitability is becoming more attractive, encouraging a shift of funds from savings to equities [12].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend driven by both domestic and external factors, leading to a broader range of investment opportunities [1] - The coordination of domestic supply and demand policies is a key variable that maintains high risk appetite, resulting in an upward trend in market indices [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a weaker dollar is likely to attract global funds towards non-US assets, providing room for valuation recovery in A-share equities [1] Group 2 - Two core investment themes identified are: new consumption and new services, focusing on high-income groups, the elderly, and consumers in lower-tier cities, as well as self-sufficiency sectors like semiconductors and AI computing chips [2] - The investment strategy for the new fund will involve a balanced approach, gradually increasing equity positions while controlling for volatility, aiming to capture opportunities from industry trends and fundamental improvements [2] - The market is expected to show greater breadth and depth in the second half of the year, with a focus on high-quality stocks that have clear fundamental improvements and reasonable valuations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-bank sector is expected to see significant investment opportunities due to high growth in performance and increased capital inflow from residents [1] - The insurance sector is projected to continue its growth in the first half of 2025, driven by a decrease in preset interest rates and improved value rates due to the integration of reporting [1] - Consumer finance companies have shown high growth in performance in the first half of the year, supported by a rapid decline in funding costs, indicating strong investment opportunities in this sector [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 28,700 billion yuan this week, up from 23,842 billion yuan previously, with a year-on-year increase of 81.96% [2] - As of August 22, 2025, the underwriting scale for IPOs and private placements reached 7,386.12 billion yuan, while corporate bonds and convertible bonds financing scales were 145.91 billion yuan and 338.27 billion yuan respectively [2] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending reached 21,468 billion yuan as of August 21, 2025, with a financing balance of 21,320 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of 37,350 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 39.22 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.23% compared to the beginning of the year [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry increased to 3.75 trillion yuan, showing a growth rate of 12.91% since the beginning of the year [3]

Trading Insights - The A-share market indices have reached a ten-year high, with financing balances and private equity scales increasing simultaneously, indicating a significant influx of new capital into the market. Stock ETFs have emerged as the preferred investment channel, with over 500 billion yuan in net subscriptions for ETFs in the past week, of which stock ETFs accounted for 230 billion yuan. The stock ETF market is expected to expand to 8 trillion yuan over the next five years [1][2] - As of August 22, the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,800 points for the first time in ten years, closing at 3,825.76 points, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.36%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,467.1 billion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive trading day with volumes exceeding 20 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [1][2] Fund News - On August 22, two new funds were launched, primarily stock funds, with the BoShi ChiNext 50 Index A fund having an undisclosed fundraising target. A total of 46 funds distributed dividends, with the highest dividend payout from the JiaoYin ShiRui Double Benefit Bond Fund, distributing 0.92 yuan per 10 fund shares [2] - The public fund of funds (FOF) has seen a significant recovery, with an average return exceeding 9% this year, the best performance in five years. Industry experts predict a structurally strong stock market over the next three years, while the bond market may experience high volatility, prompting FOFs to increase equity allocations to enhance portfolio returns [2] - The scale of equity ETFs has surged, surpassing 4.11 trillion yuan, a historical high, with nearly 800 billion yuan added this year. This growth is attributed to policy guidance, market maturity, and product innovation, with expectations for further strategy enrichment and product iteration to enhance competitiveness [2] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund on August 22 was the FuGuo Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF, with a daily growth rate of 10.0663%. Other notable performers included the NanFang and HuiTianFu Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETFs, with growth rates of 10.0416% and 10.0211%, respectively [5][6] - In the stock fund category, the top performer was the HuaBao Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index A, with a daily growth rate of 9.2495%. The leading bond fund was the HuaXia Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A, with a growth rate of 3.3308% [5][6] - The top five funds across various categories, excluding leveraged and fixed-income funds, showed significant daily growth rates, indicating a robust performance across the board [5][6]