世界银行报告警告，亚洲多个经济体就业率总体较高，但年轻人找工作困难，并指出中国和印度尼西亚有七分之一的年轻人失业。东亚与太平洋国家中的许多人从事的是低生产率或非正式的工作，这可能会危及社会稳定，因为这种不满情绪会引发全球青年领导的抗议浪潮。 https://t.co/I7Xm0n5gPi ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in consumer confidence across all demographics in the U.S. due to concerns over inflation and unemployment [1] - The consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, which represents a decrease of approximately 5% from August [1] - The consumer expectations index fell from 55.9 in August to 51.7 in September, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers [1] Group 2 - The expected probability of personal unemployment has slightly increased, reaching the highest level since March 2025 [1] - A significant 44% of consumers mentioned that high prices are eroding their personal financial situation, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic indicators in the U.S., highlighting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment claims, which suggest a high probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since January, and rose by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3% [7]. - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations [7]. - The largest contributor to the CPI increase was housing costs, which rose by 0.4%, accounting for about one-third of the index's weight [7]. - Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 263,000, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 235,000, indicating a weakening labor market [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.82%, S&P 500 up by 0.45%, and Nasdaq up by 0.36% [2][3]. - Chinese concept stocks also saw significant gains, with Alibaba rising nearly 5% and NIO over 4% [6]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with some analysts suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to the weak employment data [9][10]. - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders widely anticipate a 25 basis point cut, with increasing probabilities for a larger cut [10]. - Analysts believe that the Fed may implement more rate cuts than previously expected, with the labor market's weakness overshadowing inflation risks [10].

Employment Trends - US manufacturing sector experienced a decrease of 12 thousand jobs in July [1] - The manufacturing sector has lost a cumulative 78 thousand jobs throughout the year [1] - July's adjusted manufacturing employment decreased by 11 thousand, exceeding the expected decrease of 3 thousand [1] - Manufacturing job losses have persisted since April, contradicting the "bring manufacturing back to the US" initiative [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from Japan indicates a surprising drop in unemployment and sustained high inflation indicators in Tokyo, strengthening market expectations for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, which may support the yen against the dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased, while inflation indicators in the Tokyo region remain elevated [1] - These economic factors are likely to bolster the yen, providing upward support against the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The foreign exchange market has been primarily influenced by the re-evaluation of interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which has dominated the fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair [1] - Despite positive domestic fundamentals for the yen, the ability to break through recent consolidation levels will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a high-level consolidation range, positioned above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but short-term momentum is weakening [1] - A breakout above 148.20 could lead to a test of the previous high at 149.00, while a drop below the support level of 146.80 may result in a decline towards 145.50 [1]

Group 1 - The national poverty rate in Ghana has increased from 39% in 2017 to 40% [1] - Many households in Ghana are struggling due to severe inflation, with prices of food, transportation, and other essentials skyrocketing [1] - In 2023, many families find it difficult to meet basic living needs even with a daily income of $3 [1] Group 2 - A broader poverty standard indicates that 57.2% of the population will still be in poverty in 2024, defined as living on less than $4.20 a day [1] - Ghana's economic challenges are not only about growth but also structural issues, with an over-reliance on capital-intensive industrial models [1] - From 2012 to 2023, the working-age population increased by 2.7 million, but net job creation was only 250,000 [1] Group 3 - Most jobs created in the past decade have been in low-productivity sectors, with limited growth in manufacturing and high-value services [1] - The gap in the labor market poses a threat to Ghana's development prospects and its ability to benefit from the demographic dividend [1]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, indicating potential adverse effects on the economy and the company's operations [2][3][10]. Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported strong operating results for Q2, but investors were disappointed by the lack of stock repurchases [2]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including nearly $300 billion in equities, significant insurance and energy assets, and a major railroad, providing strong visibility into the broader economy [11]. Tariff Concerns - The report specifically mentioned President Trump's tariffs, with Buffett previously describing tariffs as "an act of war" and a tax on goods [3][6]. - Current tariff rates are significant, with imports facing rates of 15% to 40%, which could impact inflation and business operations [7][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding changing tariff rates is causing businesses to pause hiring and capital expenditures, potentially leading to adverse consequences for Berkshire's operations [8][9]. Economic Implications - While inflation has not surged overall, it is beginning to appear in sectors affected by tariffs, such as apparel and appliances [13]. - There are concerns that prolonged uncertainty from tariffs could stall economic growth and lead to disinflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates [14]. - The market has been able to absorb tariff news so far, but increasing data may force a reevaluation of the situation [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Colombian Finance Minister asserts that labor reforms will not exacerbate unemployment and inflation issues in the country [1] Group 1 - The Finance Minister emphasizes that the proposed labor reforms are designed to improve the labor market without leading to increased unemployment rates [1] - The government aims to balance labor rights with economic growth, ensuring that reforms support both workers and businesses [1] - The Minister highlights that the reforms are part of a broader strategy to enhance economic stability and attract investment [1]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariff policy exceeded its authority, suspending its implementation, which indicates that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, leading to an increase in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures rising by 1.8% [1] - The U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs, which eased economic pessimism [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes revealed officials are facing a "difficult trade-off" between rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the Fed's cautious stance has suppressed gold prices [1] - Investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments, following consumer confidence data that exceeded expectations, reinforcing economic stability [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, gold prices showed a downward trend, peaking at 3325 and dropping to a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [2] - The price experienced short-term fluctuations in the morning, testing key resistance levels before facing downward pressure, resulting in a bearish closing [2] - Monthly analysis indicates a correction after three months of price increases, with a four-month upward trend now facing a single-month correction [3] - Weekly analysis shows gold prices supported at the 3160 level, suggesting a continued bullish outlook unless the weekly support is broken [3] - Daily analysis indicates a support level at 3270, with a bearish outlook following a breach of this support [3] - Short-term analysis highlights resistance at the 3295 level, with a cautious approach recommended for further price movements [3] - A trading strategy suggests a short position in the 3294-3295 range, with a stop loss of 10 USD and a target between 3245-3210 [5]