前两天，我在网上看到一条话题，说是有个失业的人分享了他的元旦节怎么过的。那个帖子引发了很多人的讨论和共鸣，下面的评论特别多。我点进去看了 看，发现故事并不复杂，就是一个人失业后，元旦节没有出去聚餐、没有出去旅游，而是在家里自己做饭，和朋友在线上视频聊天。看起来很平常的事，怎 么会引发这么多人的讨论呢？我就开始思考，这背后反映的是什么。 后来我才明白，这条帖子引发共鸣的原因，不在于故事本身有多离奇，而是在于，有太多的人现在都在经历类似的处境。失业、收入减少、消费被迫降级， 这些事情正在发生在身边越来越多的人身上。而且，很多人都在隐忍，都在默默地调整自己的生活方式。当有人把这种经历说出来的时候，就像戳中了一个 集体的痛点。 我想，我们有必要认真地讨论一下这个话题。不是为了渲染悲观情绪，而是为了理解发生了什么，以及我们应该如何面对。 我们要承认，消费确实在发生变化。这不是个别现象，而是一种普遍的趋势。有人在研究消费数据，发现很多行业的消费确实在下滑。餐饮消费上，高端餐 厅的生意冷清了，而平价餐饮还能维持。旅游消费上，远距离的出境游少了，本地游多了。购物消费上，大品牌的销售额下降，性价比高的产品反而好卖。 这些变化都 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes reveal significant internal disagreements regarding the decision to lower interest rates and future monetary policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - On December 10, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [1]. - Some officials expressed that the decision to ease monetary policy was a delicate balance due to various economic risks, indicating that they could have supported maintaining the current rate [2]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divide among policymakers regarding whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy, leading to a more intense "hawk-dove" debate [2]. - Many officials believe that further rate cuts are appropriate if inflation decreases as expected, while others suggest maintaining rates for a period to assess the delayed impacts of recent monetary policy on the labor market and economic activity [2]. Group 3: Market Implications - The anticipated rate cuts are seen as beneficial for U.S. equities, particularly for small and mid-cap companies, with expectations of a continued market uptrend until 2026 [2]. - The potential for further rate cuts may weaken the U.S. dollar, which could favor emerging market stocks and local bonds [3]. Group 4: Short-Term Treasury Purchases - The Federal Reserve has initiated a "mini QE" through a short-term Treasury bond purchase program, with plans to buy approximately $220 billion in short-term Treasury bills over the next 12 months [4][5]. - As of December, the Fed had already purchased about $38 billion in short-term Treasury bills and plans to conduct two more purchasing operations in January [5]. Group 5: Reserve Management - The purchases are intended for reserve management and are not considered traditional QE, with the likelihood of true QE being low unless the U.S. faces a recession or systemic financial risks [6].

与此同时，纪要称，"一些与会者指出，通胀上升有可能变得根深蒂固，在通胀读数仍然偏高的背景下 进一步下调政策利率可能被误解为政策制定者对2%通胀目标的承诺有所减弱。" 美联储主席鲍威尔在12月会议后对记者表示，美联储已经将利率下调到足以防范劳动力市场出现更严重 恶化的水平，但又能够继续对通胀形成压制。 美联储12月会议纪要显示，政策制定者在通胀和失业哪一个对美国经济构成更大风险的问题上，存在显 著分歧。 纪要指出："多数与会者认为，朝着更为中性的政策立场迈进将有助于防止劳动力市场状况出现严重恶 化的可能性。" 会议纪要称："一些支持或本可以支持将目标区间维持不变的与会者表示，接下来两次会议之间将公布 大量有关劳动力市场和通胀的数据，有助于他们判断是否有必要降息。" 由于政府停摆持续整个10月并延续至11月近一半时间，官员们在会议时缺乏通常可用的经济数据。但决 策者称，未来几周的新数据或可为他们提供指引。 ...

新华社纽约12月19日电（记者徐静）美国密歇根大学19日发布的调查数据显示，美国12月消费者信心指 数终值上升至52.9，高于11月的51.0，但远低于去年12月的74.0。 与此同时，美国消费者预计通胀在可预见的未来仍将居高不下，从而削弱其预算的潜在购买力。 （文章来源：新华社） 调查还显示，今年一整年，美国消费者普遍担心劳动力市场出现恶化。12月，约63%的消费者预计未来 一年失业率将上升，这一比例远高于去年同期的40%。 密歇根大学发布的12月当前经济状况指数终值降至50.4，低于11月份的51.1，也低于去年12月份的 75.1。消费者预期指数升至54.6，高于11月份的51.0，但同样低于去年12月份的73.3。 调查显示，尽管消费者信心指数有所改善，但比2024年12月仍低近30%。高物价和关税影响依旧是美国 消费者在大笔购物时最为关注的问题。约47%的受调查消费者自述高物价给个人财务造成压力，这一比 例与11月持平，高于去年同期的35%。 ...

凌晨三点，刷到朋友发的朋友圈："表姐失业第 237 天，终于在社区找到了一份月薪 3500 元的网格员工作，每天笑着帮居民跑腿，却在深夜躲在阳台哭 —— 曾经的外企白领，现在连给孩子报钢琴班的底气都没了。"手机屏幕的冷光里，我想起楼下便利店老板娘说的话："今年连矿泉水都卖不动了，以前 每天能卖两箱，现在一周才补一次货。" 这就是 2024 年的现实：全国 3900 万人在失业漩涡里挣扎，45 岁以上的求职者平均投递 100 份简历才换来一次面试，就连体制内的朋友也在说 "绩效腰 斩，年终奖清零"。经济下行的潮水，正漫过每一个普通人的脚踝。 去年冬天，我在夜市遇到摆摊卖袜子的王姐。她曾是某童装品牌的区域经理，疫情后品牌撤柜，投了 80 份简历全石沉大海。"38 岁，没学历，除了卖衣 服啥也不会，总不能在家等着老公养吧？" 现在她每天推着小推车卖袜子，10 元 3 双，赚够孩子的奶粉钱就收摊。 更残酷的是数据：2023 年城镇调查失业率 5.2%，换算成 7.5 亿劳动人口，意味着每 19 个人里就有 1 个在失业。40 岁以上的失业者中，60% 靠父母退休 金或配偶收入度日，30% 被迫从事体力劳动 —— 曾经 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown, but warnings remain high as only 3 out of 12 annual appropriations bills were passed, indicating a potential future shutdown in over two months [1] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the six-week shutdown will reduce the actual GDP growth rate by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a permanent loss of approximately $11 billion [1] - During the shutdown, around 750,000 federal employees were furloughed daily, leading to potential permanent impacts on inflation and unemployment reports [1] Group 2 - The Labor Statistics Bureau had to recall some furloughed employees to produce the September employment data, raising concerns about data quality and economic authenticity [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 51.6%, down from 59.4% the previous day [4] - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for no changes to bring inflation back to the 2% target, while others support a rate cut due to better-than-expected inflation data [4]

Core Insights - Hurricane "Melissa" has caused economic losses equivalent to one-third of Jamaica's GDP from last year [1] - Estimated losses from housing and critical infrastructure range from $60 billion to $70 billion, representing 28% to 32% of last year's GDP [1] - Short-term economic output is expected to decline by 8% to 13% due to the hurricane's impact [1] Economic Impact - The total economic loss in the Caribbean region from Hurricane "Melissa" is estimated to be between $48 billion and $52 billion [2] - The hurricane has resulted in at least 75 fatalities, including 32 individuals from Jamaica [2] Government Response - The Jamaican government plans to rebuild infrastructure with a focus on resilience against future storms [1] - There are concerns that post-disaster reconstruction spending may increase national debt, prompting the government to initiate an emergency plan [1] Sector-Specific Effects - The agricultural sector has been severely affected by consecutive hurricanes, potentially leading to increased food prices [1] - The tourism sector, particularly in core areas of Jamaica, has also been impacted, resulting in job losses for thousands of workers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that historical shifts are often subtle and not always marked by dramatic events, highlighting a generational change in attitudes towards work and effort [1] Group 1 - The younger generation is criticized for not being willing to engage in "involution" or overtime work, prompting a reflection on the lessons learned from previous generations about the potential lack of rewards for hard work [1]

Employment Challenges in Asia - World Bank reports high overall employment rates in several Asian economies, but highlights difficulties for young people in finding jobs [1] - Approximately 14% (one in seven) of young people are unemployed in China and Indonesia [1] Economic and Social Risks - Many individuals in East Asia and the Pacific are engaged in low-productivity or informal work [1] - This situation poses a risk to social stability, as discontent can fuel youth-led protests globally [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in consumer confidence across all demographics in the U.S. due to concerns over inflation and unemployment [1] - The consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, which represents a decrease of approximately 5% from August [1] - The consumer expectations index fell from 55.9 in August to 51.7 in September, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers [1] Group 2 - The expected probability of personal unemployment has slightly increased, reaching the highest level since March 2025 [1] - A significant 44% of consumers mentioned that high prices are eroding their personal financial situation, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1]