Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement sector's profitability is primarily driven by overseas performance, particularly in regions like Africa, where companies such as Huaxin Cement are seeing significant advantages [3] - Domestic demand and prices have weakened compared to Q2, indicating a potential bottoming out in 2024, with supply-side restrictions being a key focus for industry improvement [3] - Shareholder returns are expected to improve due to industry stock incentive plans [3] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - There is a noticeable divergence in revenue growth rates among various sub-sectors and companies within the consumer building materials industry, influenced by real estate and local debt issues [4] - Companies are exploring new revenue paths through overseas expansion, market penetration, and renovation projects [4] - Price recovery and structural upgrades in the paint and waterproofing sectors are leading the way, although full realization will take time [4] Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass industry is experiencing dual differentiation in production and sales, with larger companies maintaining better performance amid price wars [5] - The glass sector is nearing a turning point, with float glass prices stabilizing and photovoltaic glass showing signs of recovery due to industry self-discipline in production cuts [5] - The market characteristics of the glass sector, dominated by private enterprises, contribute to a more effective market-driven clearing mechanism [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. After the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, the market showed profit - taking. Although the geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, as the geopolitical sentiment was gradually digested, the contract maintained a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday night, with the price slightly down 0.19% to 464.3 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Content Time - period and Trend Description - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all described as "weak and volatile", with an overall view of "weak operation" [1]. Price Calculation and Trend Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a "drop", 0 - 1% a "weak and volatile" decline, 0 - 1% increase a "strong and volatile" rise, and an increase greater than 1% a "rise". The "strong/weak and volatile" definition only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. Market Driving Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking. The geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. As the geopolitical sentiment was digested, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed slightly lower on Tuesday night and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-03 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：昨日中美两国元首在韩国釜山会晤，会后中美双方在经贸关税方面取得积极进展，不过 整体成果略低于市场预期。随着宏观利多情绪消化，宏观因子继续驱动力量减弱，市场出现获利回 吐现象。由于上周末美国增兵加勒比海，威胁委内瑞拉，南美地缘冲突升级，提振国际原油溢价， 在一定程度上对冲地缘风险。在偏多情绪支撑下，上周五夜盘，国内原油期货 2512 合约维持震荡偏 强的走势，期价小幅收涨 0.91%至 463.6 元/桶。预计本周一国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend on Monday. The market sentiment is a bit bullish, but the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market still remain weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of crude oil 2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is weakly volatile, and the intraday view is slightly bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - On the night of last Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 467.6 yuan/barrel [5]. Driving Factors - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively sent signals to ease the situation, and the positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks over the weekend have further improved the macro sentiment [5]. - 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has faded [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2512 is weak, the medium - term view is weak, the intraday view is strong, and the overall is expected to run strongly with an increasing bullish atmosphere [1] - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is weakly volatile, and it is expected to run strongly. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Core Logic - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released a signal to ease the situation. However, the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market still maintain a weak pattern [5] - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - After the previous weak macro - factors were corrected and the geopolitical risks in South America became prominent, crude oil futures regained premium support [5] - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.65% to 449.1 yuan per barrel [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report believes that although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal to ease tensions, the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak. With OPEC+ increasing production and the "war premium" fading, the oil market supply pressure is increasing. However, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.64% to 439.0 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Factors - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as Trump released a signal to ease tensions. But the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market are still in a weak pattern [5]. - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has diminished [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2512 are all weak, showing a trend of weak oscillation. The market is expected to maintain this weak oscillation trend on Monday [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract stopped falling and stabilized, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.34% to 441.1 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Logic - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released a signal to ease the situation, but the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak [5] - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has subsided [5]

- **Domestic Asset BL Model** - **Model Name**: Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Construction Idea**: The BL model integrates subjective views with quantitative asset allocation using Bayesian theory, optimizing asset weights based on market analysis and expected returns. It addresses the sensitivity of mean-variance models to expected returns and provides higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments [26][27][33] - **Construction Process**: 1. Use historical returns of assets over the past five years to estimate market equilibrium returns (Π) 2. Specify a risk aversion coefficient (e.g., λ = 10), which corresponds to a target volatility 3. Alternatively, assign fixed weights (e.g., stock:bond:convertible bond:commodity:gold = 10:80:5:2.5:2.5) and reverse calculate the risk aversion coefficient dynamically for each period [33] - **Evaluation**: The BL model effectively combines subjective views with quantitative methods, providing robust asset allocation solutions [26][27] - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model** - **Model Name**: Risk Parity Model - **Construction Idea**: The model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset to the overall portfolio, optimizing asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation [32][35] - **Construction Process**: 1. Select appropriate underlying assets 2. Calculate each asset's risk contribution to the portfolio 3. Solve optimization problems to determine final asset weights 4. Use daily returns over the past five years to estimate the covariance matrix for stability [35] - **Evaluation**: The model provides stable returns across economic cycles and is well-suited for domestic investors [32][35] - **Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy** - **Model Name**: Macro Factor-Based Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy bridges macroeconomic research with asset allocation by constructing high-frequency macro factors (e.g., growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, liquidity) and aligning asset weights with subjective macroeconomic views [41][46] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate factor exposure levels for assets monthly 2. Use risk parity portfolios as benchmarks to compute baseline factor exposures 3. Adjust factor exposure targets based on subjective macroeconomic views (e.g., inflation up = positive deviation) 4. Solve for asset weights using the model [41][46] - **Evaluation**: The strategy effectively incorporates macroeconomic insights into asset allocation, enhancing adaptability to changing economic conditions [41][46] - **Backtest Results for Models** - **Domestic Asset BL Model 1**: - Annualized return: 3.58% - Max drawdown: 1.31% - Annualized volatility: 2.19% [31][33] - **Domestic Asset BL Model 2**: - Annualized return: 3.18% - Max drawdown: 1.06% - Annualized volatility: 1.99% [31][33] - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model**: - Annualized return: 3.12% - Max drawdown: 0.76% - Annualized volatility: 1.34% [39][40] - **Macro Factor-Based Strategy**: - Annualized return: 3.42% - Max drawdown: 0.65% - Annualized volatility: 1.32% [46][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being weakly oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract continued the weakly oscillating trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.37% to 14,795 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market remain weak, so it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed a stable and slightly rising trend, with the futures price rebounding 0.84% to 10,835 yuan/ton, but it lacks the momentum to continue strengthening [7] - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, despite the weakening of macro - bearish sentiment, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market are still weak, and it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Thursday [7]