市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] A 股增量资金空间测算：居民存款与机构资金潜 力展望——"重估牛"系列之资金篇（三） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 随着 A 股逐渐走出结构性"慢牛"行情，居民存款、险资等资金面有望对 A 股市场提供中长期 流动性支撑。根据我们测算，到 2030 年，居民部门资产再配置预计带来 5.4~12.0 万亿元入市 资金，其中存款"搬家"部分贡献约 3.5~6.2 万亿元，资产再配置部分贡献约 1.9~5.7 万亿元， 而中长期资金的保险资金有望在未来 9 个季度累计增配股票与基金约 4.5~6.5 万亿元；展望 2026 年，一级市场、主动型基金、ETF 基金及私募等其他渠道有望为 A 股市场贡献约 6.0~9.6 万亿元的增量资金。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 微观增量资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, which is contributing to the active market environment and influx of new capital into the A-share market, with data indicators and reasons summarized until July 2025 [3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - The growth rate of non-bank deposits remains high, with year-on-year increases of 16.7%, 9.7%, and 11.8% for August, September, and October respectively [3]. - The growth rate of household demand deposits has rebounded from nearly 0% at the beginning of 2024 to 7.4% in October 2025, while time deposits have decreased from around 15% to 10.5% [3]. - Non-financial corporate demand deposits have also increased, reaching 10.7% in October, while time deposits have dropped from 7.3% to 1.4% [3]. Group 2: Investor Activity - Investor activity remains relatively high, with over 2.3 million new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from August to October, and margin trading balances rising from 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan [3][8]. - The turnover rate, calculated based on free float market capitalization, has decreased to around 4%, still above historical averages [3][10]. Group 3: Bank Wealth Management Products - The structure of bank wealth management products has changed, with a decrease in the proportion of long-term products as the market has warmed, dropping from 16.9% to 15.7% for products with a term of over one year [13]. - The annualized yield of bank wealth management products has declined, with median yields for various terms showing a decrease over the past year [15]. - The high liquidity and low volatility of short-term products continue to attract investors, especially in a recovering equity market [15]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to remain active, with bank wealth management likely to further invigorate, supported by upcoming expirations of numerous long-term products [17]. - The article anticipates that the A-share market's upward trend since September 24 will continue into 2026, driven by various macroeconomic factors [17]. - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with ongoing support from international order restructuring and domestic innovation trends [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector, highlighting the potential for growth in wealth management and asset management businesses within brokerages [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a significant shift of household deposits from traditional banks to capital markets, with a notable increase in non-bank institution deposits by 1.85 trillion yuan in October 2025, while household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan [4]. - The insurance sector shows robust growth, with insurance funds' investment balance reaching 37.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a 3.4% increase from Q2 2025 and a 12.6% increase year-on-year [4]. - The report emphasizes the increasing attractiveness of the equity market, which is expected to benefit brokerage firms' wealth management and asset management businesses [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,628.14 with a weekly change of -1.08%, while the non-bank index rose slightly by 0.16% [7]. - The brokerage sector index decreased by 1.01%, while the insurance sector index increased by 2.63% [7]. Non-Bank Financial Data - As of November 14, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 20,283.14 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.76% from the previous period [46]. - The margin trading balance reached 25,065.34 billion yuan, an increase of 34.4% compared to the end of 2024 [19]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms that will benefit from the increased attractiveness of the equity market, specifically highlighting firms such as GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and AIA are recommended due to their strong performance and growth potential [4].

中资券商股尾盘加速下跌，截至发稿，广发证券（000776）(01776)跌3.88%，报19.09港元；中信建投 （601066）证券(06066)跌2.34%，报12.94港元；招商证券（600999）(06099)跌1.88%，报15.62港元；光 大证券（601788）(06178)跌1.65%，报9.55港元。 中国银河（601881）证券研报表示，10月金融数据显示股市赚钱效应进一步带动居民存款搬家，是值得 市场关注的积极信号。该行在9月的金融数据解读报告中曾强调，9月的金融数据表面上显示居民存款搬 家去往非银的行为暂停，实际上是由于去年9月快速搬家的基数扰动，该行认为搬家并没有被暂停，需 持续观测后续数据。 消息面上，上交所官方数据显示，10月新开户246.72万户，环比9月下降21.4%，单月同比下降66.3%。 东海证券发布研报称，增速回落一方面是由于前期市场情绪高涨带动开户需求集中释放，另一方面由于 去年"924"行情带动的高基数效应。该行认为市场高涨情绪仍在持续。此外，市场反复冲刺4000点平 台，交易情绪分化使得上周券商配置方向出现分歧。但市场主体和投资者结构优化支撑行情稳步上行。 ...

消息面上，上交所官方数据显示，10月新开户246.72万户，环比9月下降21.4%，单月同比下降66.3%。 东海证券发布研报称，增速回落一方面是由于前期市场情绪高涨带动开户需求集中释放，另一方面由于 去年"924"行情带动的高基数效应。该行认为市场高涨情绪仍在持续。此外，市场反复冲刺4000点平 台，交易情绪分化使得上周券商配置方向出现分歧。但市场主体和投资者结构优化支撑行情稳步上行。 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股尾盘加速下跌，截至发稿，广发证券(01776)跌3.88%，报19.09港元；中 信建投证券(06066)跌2.34%，报12.94港元；招商证券(06099)跌1.88%，报15.62港元；光大证券(06178) 跌1.65%，报9.55港元。 中国银河证券研报表示，10月金融数据显示股市赚钱效应进一步带动居民存款搬家，是值得市场关注的 积极信号。该行在9月的金融数据解读报告中曾强调，9月的金融数据表面上显示居民存款搬家去往非银 的行为暂停，实际上是由于去年9月快速搬家的基数扰动，该行认为搬家并没有被暂停，需持续观测后 续数据。 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.3% and expanded its intraday decline to 2%, with SoftBank dropping 9% [1] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling to $98,990.7, a nearly 3% drop in 24 hours, and Ethereum dropping nearly 6% to around $3,200 [1] - The primary reason for the market sell-off is attributed to a collective hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target, indicating it is too early to decide on interest rate cuts [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also supported maintaining stable interest rates to apply pressure on inflation [2] - The resignation of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, prompting a collective response from other officials [2][3] Group 3 - Chinese securities firms noted that monthly financial data indicates a continued shift of household deposits away from banks, which is a positive signal for the market [4] - South Korea's finance minister announced measures to stabilize the currency market amid concerns over the depreciation of the Korean won [4] - Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, indicated a shift in fiscal policy focus towards increasing government spending rather than improving public finances, which may lead to economic stimulus measures [4]

中国银河证券表示，本月金融数据显示股市赚钱效应进一步带动居民存款搬家，是值得市场关注的积极 信号。我们在9月的金融数据解读报告中曾强调"9月的金融数据表面上显示居民存款搬家去往非银的行 为暂停，实际上是由于去年9月快速搬家的基数扰动，我们认为搬家并没有被暂停，需持续观测后续数 据。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国银河证券表示，本月金融数据显示股市赚钱效应进一步带动居民存款搬家，是值得市场关注的积极 信号。我们在9月的金融数据解读报告中曾强调9月的金融数据表面上显示居民存款搬家去往非银的行为 暂停，实际上是由于去年9月快速搬家的基数扰动，我们认为搬家并没有被暂停，需持续观测后续数 据。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The static forecast indicates that the old-caliber M1 is expected to decline from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is projected to decrease from 8.4% in September to approximately 8.0% by year-end, both remaining higher than the end of 2024 [2] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth involves understanding the components of M1 as part of M2, with M1 being derived from M2 minus other currencies [7][17] Group 1: M2 Growth Factors - M2 growth is influenced by five main factors: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors [8][20] - The forecast for M2 growth indicates a decline of 900 billion, with M2 expected to decrease to around 8.0% by year-end due to factors such as reduced government leverage and a decline in corporate loans [8][22][28] Group 2: M1 Growth Analysis - The old-caliber M1 is expected to decline by 1.6 trillion year-on-year, with a forecasted drop to 3.4% by year-end, influenced by factors such as a decrease in household deposits and a stable level of non-bank deposits [9][10][52] - The analysis of other currencies shows that household deposits are expected to decrease by 620 billion, while non-bank deposits are projected to increase by 1.9 trillion [46][47] Group 3: Impacts on Capital Markets - Changes in M1 are seen as leading indicators for price improvements, with M1 growth typically preceding changes in PPI and industrial product inventory by three to four quarters [54] - Non-bank deposits are closely linked to trading volumes in the financial market, with higher non-bank deposits correlating with increased trading activity [55] - The relationship between corporate and household deposits can predict corporate profits and ten-year treasury yields approximately one year in advance [57] Group 4: Potential Scenarios for M1 Changes - Several scenarios for potential M1 changes in Q4 are proposed, including increased corporate loans and infrastructure investment, which could lead to upward pressure on M1 and M2 [63] - Another scenario suggests that a decrease in M2 and household deposits, alongside an increase in corporate deposits, could indicate improved economic cycles and profitability [64]

Group 1 - The report discusses the concept of "deposit migration" and its implications for liquidity in the A-share market, suggesting that this migration is a response to a loose liquidity environment leading to lower interest rates and a search for higher-yielding assets [3][4][14] - It introduces a new dual liquidity framework that incorporates both household and corporate capital behaviors, indicating that corporate capital is more likely to trigger a bull market than household savings [4][35] - The report identifies three phases of a liquidity-driven bull market: ignition phase led by corporate capital, acceleration phase driven by household savings migration, and a bubble phase where both types of capital create positive feedback [37][50] Group 2 - The report highlights that the current market is still in the tail end of the first phase dominated by corporate capital, with large-scale household deposit migration to the stock market yet to occur [7][19] - It emphasizes that the lack of significant deposit migration suggests limited upward potential for the A-share index, urging a focus on structural opportunities instead [7][20] - The report notes that the cooling real estate market has influenced household asset allocation behavior, leading to a higher savings tendency and a reluctance to migrate deposits into the stock market [5][22] Group 3 - The report analyzes how the transfer of pricing power among funds affects market preferences, indicating that institutional investors tend to favor large-cap stocks while retail investors are more active in small-cap stocks [38][44] - It discusses the lifecycle of market trends, identifying signals for potential market corrections, such as increased shareholding reductions by major shareholders [51][56] - The report concludes that significant changes in corporate shareholder behavior can serve as leading indicators for market adjustments, particularly in the context of liquidity conditions [53][58]