1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - The domestic 5mm float glass market continued its downward trend last week, with prices in various regions generally decreasing by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with overall rising enterprise inventories, persistently sluggish downstream demand, and purchases mainly for刚需. There is a lack of substantial positive support. Affected by low - price supplies and rainy weather in some areas during the week, the trading pace further slowed down, and prices were under downward pressure. Although the increase in coal prices in the second half of the week strengthened cost support to some extent, the overall market sentiment remained bearish, and the price rebound momentum was insufficient. In the short term, the market lacks new driving factors and is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the dynamic of enterprise cold repairs and the marginal changes in the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy [12][13]. Soda Ash - Last week, the prices of light and heavy soda ash in the northwest region decreased slightly. The industry supply continued to operate at a high level. Although the maintenance of individual enterprises provided some support to the local market, the overall production capacity base was large, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. There are still plans for individual devices to start up and resume production in the later stage. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing willingness is low, and they generally adopt a cautious strategy of replenishing inventory on demand and buying at low prices. Manufacturers have few new orders, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Overall, the soda ash market is difficult to reverse the pattern of loose supply and demand in the short term. Prices are expected to remain stable and weak, and the trading center may further decline [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. According to CAAM data, in September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [12]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 149 yuan/ton (- 15), the 05 - 09 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 238 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [17][20]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton [26][29]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons. - **Inventory**: As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [56]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 88 yuan/ton (- 2), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 6), the 09 - 01 spread was 147 yuan/ton (- 4), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [61][64]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2142 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [91][94].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA and MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea and Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: The equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises is less than expected, and the supply remains at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the pattern of oversupply has not been effectively improved. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Glass: The fundamentals of float glass are in a weak balance, and the production of photovoltaic glass shows a downward trend. After the holiday, the supply pressure and inventory accumulation suppress the price rebound. The cost side may be disturbed, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but excessive short - selling is not recommended [9]. Group 4: Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On October 13, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA601 continued to decline. The closing price was 1,247 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%, and the position decreased by 58,152 lots [7]. - The equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises is less than expected, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Glass - The fundamentals of float glass are in a weak balance, and the production of photovoltaic glass shows a downward trend. After the holiday, the supply pressure and inventory accumulation suppress the price rebound. The cost side may be disturbed, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, but excessive short - selling is not recommended [9]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data charts on the price trends of active contracts of soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [11][14][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 23, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash declined for two consecutive trading days. The closing price was 1,273 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 2.60%, with a daily reduction of 4,582 lots in positions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week-on-week decline. Although the factory inventory continued to decline to 1.7556 million tons, 41,900 tons less than last Thursday, it remained at a high level. The total shipment volume reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week-on-week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39-percentage-point week-on-week increase [8]. - **Macro Situation**: There was no new policy information to alleviate the intense competition in the soda ash industry, and the possibility of relevant policy implementation in the short term was relatively low. - **Outlook**: The contradiction in the soda ash industry was alleviated in the short term, but the inventory was still high, and the fundamental driving force was insufficient. The supply was still in excess, and the pattern of oversupply in the market had not been effectively improved. The market price was expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The overall glass production showed a slight upward trend but remained in the bottom range. The spot price rebounded, improving the industry's profit. The deep - processing orders remained basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand. The inventory started to accumulate again. For float glass, the supply - side pressure was marginally relieved compared to last year, and the cost side provided some support, but the demand side was weak. The photovoltaic glass market experienced a significant price increase, driven by strong demand [9][10]. - **Macro Situation**: With the boost of peak - season demand and the strengthening of anti - intense competition expectations. - **Outlook**: The main futures contract of glass was expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [10] Group 3: Data Overview - The report provided multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts of soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [14][15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant decline, dropping over 11% in the last four trading days due to weak fundamentals, negative news, and profit-taking by funds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of August 23, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures closed at 78,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a substantial price correction [2]. - The recent price surge was primarily driven by supply disruptions, but the subsequent high prices led to a gradual exit of some long positions [2]. - Market sentiment has turned bearish, with increased concerns over supply recovery following announcements of production resumption by companies like Yichun Silver Lithium [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The lithium carbonate market remains in a tight balance with both supply and demand increasing; total production for the week ending August 21 was approximately 19,100 tons, a decrease of 842 tons week-on-week [3]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 713 tons to around 141,500 tons, indicating a reduction in stock levels despite high overall inventory levels [3]. - Current supply disruptions from projects like Zangge Lithium's salt lake project and Ningde Times' lithium mica project are critical factors to monitor for future supply dynamics [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the market is currently under pressure, the upcoming consumption peak in September and October may support demand growth [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of production at various mining sites and the potential for further supply disruptions could lead to price volatility [5]. - The market remains sensitive to new information regarding supply changes, and prices may fluctuate as a result [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market dynamics of DCE soybean meal, live pigs, and US soybean prices are influenced by supply and demand patterns, leading to price fluctuations [1] Group 1: DCE Soybean Meal and Live Pig Contracts - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3023 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton [1] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 fell by 55 CNY/ton, closing at 13885 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - The average price of external three-way live pigs nationwide is 13.88 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: US Soybean Market - CBOT US soybean main contract increased by 0.66%, closing at 995 cents/bushel [1] - The rebound in US soybean futures prices is driven by short covering and cross-market arbitrage [1] - The USDA report indicates that as of August 3, the good-to-excellent rate for US soybeans is 69%, slightly below the previous week’s 70% but above last year's 68% [1] Group 3: Brazilian Soybean Production - Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, with farmers' export profits encouraging new planting intentions [1] - Consulting agencies predict that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will increase by 962,000 hectares to 48.6 million hectares [1] - Brazil has raised biofuel blending standards, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal M09 maintains a strong trend, with attention on the 3100 CNY level [1] - The main funds are shifting focus to M01 contract, with a temporary resistance level at 3120 CNY due to rising import costs from increased Brazilian price differentials [1] - Despite rising soybean meal spot prices, high oil mill inventories and widespread pressure from traders keep the spot basis low, leading to a subdued market [1] Group 5: Live Pig Supply and Demand - The supply side of live pigs may see a reduction at the beginning of the month, followed by a recovery due to potential weight reduction in slaughtering [1] - A recent meeting on July 23 emphasized implementing capacity control measures, including culling breeding sows and reducing stock [1] - On the demand side, pig supply is sufficient, with some regions experiencing a slight demand recovery, although high temperatures limit pork purchasing willingness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a continuous rise driven by expectations of "anti-involution" policies, with soda ash maintaining a strong market performance, although institutions have issued warnings regarding the lack of significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market is heating up due to anticipated policy changes aimed at reducing competition and overproduction [1] - Soda ash prices are showing strong momentum, indicating robust demand in the sector [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Institutions are cautioning that the supply-demand landscape has not shown clear signs of improvement, raising questions about future price movements [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in iron ore production by major companies BHP and Rio Tinto in Q2 2025, raising questions about the future supply-demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the rising production levels from these iron ore giants may lead to changes in market pricing and overall supply-demand balance [1]

Core Insights - COMEX copper prices are at historical highs, raising questions about the future trajectory of copper prices and the potential impact of impending U.S. import taxes on copper [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current supply and demand dynamics in the copper market are under scrutiny as prices reach unprecedented levels [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Canada is expected to reach a record high in wheat planting area by 2025, while the canola planting area is projected to decline, leading to potential changes in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - The anticipated increase in wheat planting area may influence market prices and trends, necessitating close monitoring of the agricultural commodities market [1] - The decline in canola planting area could impact the overall supply chain and pricing strategies for canola products, affecting both producers and consumers [1]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and supply concerns, alongside increasing demand from China [1] Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift in supply and demand, with the possibility of China emerging as a new demand driver for copper [1]