从中期来看，原油市场供需格局调整将主导价格走势。EIA预测，2025年底布伦特原油价格或降至61美 元/桶，2026年进一步下探至59美元/桶，主要基于全球石油库存上升及OPEC+增产的压制。6月 OPEC+会议确认加速推进增产计划，预计9月前完成原定一年半的220万桶/日增产目标，供应宽松预期 持续强化。 需求端则呈现结构性分化。美国夏季出行旺季提振汽油及航空煤油消费，商业原油库存超预期去化；中 国则因汽柴油库存低位、高温及自驾游需求上升，支撑汽油消费稳中向好。然而，一德期货指出，全球 炼厂利润收缩及欧美汽柴油需求峰值已现，边际走弱风险逐渐显现。此外，美联储降息预期升温或短期 提振风险偏好，但难以扭转原油中长期过剩趋势。 综合来看，2025年三季度布伦特油价或围绕60美元/桶震荡，地缘风险反复与OPEC+增产节奏成为关键 变量。若中东局势彻底降温，旺季结束后油价中枢或进一步下探至60美元以下，回归基本面主导的偏空 逻辑。 来源:金融界 近期国际原油市场波动加剧，地缘政治风险与供需基本面博弈成为核心矛盾。2025年6月，中东局势动 荡主导油价先扬后抑，而机构普遍认为，随着伊以停火协议达成及OPEC+增产推进， ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Quotes Review - The alumina futures market showed a slight upward trend on July 7, 2025. The main contract 2509 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change of 0.20% compared to the settlement price. The trading volume was 341,853 lots, and the open interest was 252,718 lots. The trading volume of the 2509 contract increased, while the open interest decreased [2]. - The table shows the futures quotes of alumina contracts on July 7, 2025. For the alumina 2509 contract, the closing price was 3042, up 18 with a 0.20% increase, trading volume was 341,853, amplitude was 3.26%, open interest was 252,718, and the daily increase in open interest was -14,833. For the alumina 2510 contract, the closing price was 3012, up 15 with a 0.10% increase, trading volume was 37,053, amplitude was 2.43%, open interest was 73,292, and the daily increase in open interest was 2,098 [6]. Group 2: Analysis of Influencing Factors - The progress of alumina production is steadily advancing, and some previously overhauled production capacities have resumed production, keeping the operating capacity at a high level. On the cost side, although the price of bauxite has loosened to some extent, the range is limited, and the energy cost is relatively stable. Enterprises' production enthusiasm is fair, and there are no large - scale production cut plans [10]. - The current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high and stable, with no large - scale new production capacity investment plans, and the demand for alumina remains stable. However, recently, the operating rates of some small electrolytic aluminum enterprises have fluctuated due to environmental inspections or equipment maintenance, which has affected the procurement rhythm of alumina to some extent [10]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the overall supply - demand pattern of the alumina market is still relatively loose. In the short term, influenced by cost support and bullish signals in technical aspects, the price has some rebound momentum. In the long - term, as new production capacities continue to be released, if there is no significant improvement in the demand side, the price will still face downward pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in the macro - economic situation, supply - demand data, and technical indicator trends and operate cautiously [11].

2021年之后，随着国内房地产行业拐点的出现，PVC终端需求开始萎缩，受此影响，PVC价格持续回 落。截至2025年7月6日，PVC价格相较2021年10月的高点已下跌60%，且暂无明显止跌迹象。 综上所述，目前PVC行业亏损幅度较大，若成本重心不向下移动，价格向下空间有限。供应方面，氯碱 装置盈利状况不佳，加之夏季来临后氯碱装置进入检修季，PVC开工负荷有望下降。需求方面，房地产 行业未见起色，下游管材、型材企业进入消费淡季，尽管PVC出口有所上升，但仍难以改变需求疲软的 状态。在这种情况下，PVC市场呈现供需两弱格局，叠加高亏损压力，短期内期价将延续弱势震荡格 局。（作者单位：中原期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 下游备货意愿不高 截至2025年5月，国内房地产开发投资、房屋销售面积、新房开工、房屋竣工面积等数据仍同比下滑， 房地产行业低迷态势未明显好转，PVC整体需求也难有起色。当前，PVC下游已进入消费淡季，企业订 单不足，管材、型材等开工负荷均有所下降。截至6月26日当周，国内PVC管材样本企业开工率预估为 38.56%，环比下降1.57个百分点，同比下降10.82个百分点。消费淡季叠加PVC价格走弱 ...

2025年加拿大小麦种植面积创新高，油菜籽种植面积却下滑，市场供需格局将如何改变？市场行情和价 格走势如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

期货热点追踪 山西省临汾古县一煤矿因存在安全隐患停产整顿！焦煤连续第三个交易日拉涨，刷新逾一个月新高，这 场反弹究竟是跌势中的短暂喘息，还是市场供需格局重塑后的趋势反转？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and supply concerns, alongside increasing demand from China [1] Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift in supply and demand, with the possibility of China emerging as a new demand driver for copper [1]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+230（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：现货： ...

期货热点追踪 伦敦基本金属价格普跌，以色列伊朗冲突升级，花旗银行看多铜价，市场供需格局是否真的在转变？基 本金属后续价格走势如何演绎？ 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 美豆期货四连涨，中美元首互通电话，市场情绪企稳，后续上涨能否持续？而美玉米期货周线料两连 跌，市场供需格局有何变化？ 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 马棕油期价下跌，5月马来西亚棕榈油库存预计三连升，市场供需格局和价格走势将如何变化？ 相关链接 ...